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Message Subject Iraq an economic Study
Poster Handle ReVbo™
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[link to dinaralert.webs.com]

tlar:
This is good that this is happening because of pressure from the IMF. Maliki agrees to cancel the card then says we will put forth cash payments instead of the card and parliament says no its unconnsitutional. The only way they can cancel the ration card is to do it simultaneously with the raise in value or just after the raise in value. The State of Law is in a quandry. In order to be accepted into the world banking system the IMF is demanding they stop the cards. They have told Iraq to do this for years now. Iraq, under the Maliki government, has finally agreed. Dr. Shabibi was pushing for this and the implementation of the tax and tariff law for at least since the beginning of 2010. Both of these things go hand in hand and are necessary to install a free market. The three basic controls to inflation and dinar support are not yet in use. The three tools are Taxes and tariffs, exchange rate and the aUctions. Shabibi did a good job with only being able to utilize the auctions to support the dinar but as this economy heats up they will need to have all three tools activated. The ration card cannot be dropped until they raise the currency. Even Maliki's government realizes that now. It would be inflationnary and would probably cause riots and demonstrations. We saw the truth of that last week in the demonstrations against the removal of the ration card in March. The Maliki government will soon come to the conclusion that in order to have a functioning economy and to actually have a free market society, the must release the other two tools. IMHO based on their first date of March 2013 that was the planned date to get rid of the card that they will raise the rate sometime in Jan through March. Certainly before what was their planned date. In addition this government cannot tell the people "don't worry folks, we will have raised the rate to 1 to 1 before then" for obvious reasons. Remember the SOL's and Maliki's war was with the central bank before because of a clash of ideals and personalities. For the time being that war is over and now they must deal with realities on the ground. The easy way for them to progress is to implement those illusive tools, the taxes and tariffs and the exchange rate. I look for the tax and tariff law to be again on their plate sometime in December. To my knowledge it is still scheduled to go into effect in January. It too is extremely inflationary by itself. It has to be introduced in an environment where the currency has value and it is international in order to not also be inflationary. So again IMHO this is why they on paper at least have to do something with the currency. If this law is left alone and is implemented in January we will see our RV. All of this is economics 101.
 
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