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Message Subject Iraq an economic Study
Poster Handle ReVbo™
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As far as the term "market demands" goes, I concede that this could mean a float. I don't think so though. That term could also mean that the market now demands a stronger dinar. The study in 2008 that was done for the CBI specifically states that the CBI could support the dinar at $1.13. It also suggests that they hold it at that rate and support it for 2 years before they let it go to a float and let it drift to wherever it is to go. The test that the IMF requested of the CBI through 2009 was to do the exact same thing. Hold the rate at 1170. Don't let it flutuate up or down. Shabibi appeared to be following this plan to a T until Maliki waylaid not only the plan but Shabibi himself. The IMF supported this plan back in 2008 and I believe they are still behind it, albeit a little more cautious due to the problems with Maliki and the government. I said yesterday that I believe that our Treasury and the IMF are the driving force behind the CBI. I also think that there are many articles that support this supposition. I think they, the IMF and our Treasury, also got shocked by the sudden unexpected release of Shabibi just as we were. It came out of left field. My personal belieif, (sorry guys if anyone else thinks I should go to another site) , is that they will test the support level of the dinar before it is ever released to float in the market. I believe this in particular because at best, Turki is an unknown. Moving the auctions to the other banks, backing the LOC's by the CBI, the CBI being charged with the timing and the amount all suggest to me that this will be a fixed movement in the program rate.. These are my thoughts only. No one has an absolute lock on when or how or how much any currency change will be. Certainly not me. If I'm off base then so be it. Speculation is just that. It is speculation. I think I will stay on this site unless Kap asks me to go.
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