Economist: the problem of low liquidity includes all of Iraq
Thursday, 03 January 2013
Economic expert stressed that the crisis reduced the amount of Iraqi currency include all parts of Iraq, and not only the Kurdistan Region, due to widening trade relations with neighboring countries and the transfer of large amounts of currency abroad. Dr. Khaled Heydari professor at the University of Sulaimaniya told NNA that the low amount of Iraqi currency is due to several reasons the most important out of large amounts of currency to neighboring countries, pointing out that a large number of Iraqi banks did not comply with the instructions issued by the central bank and related to retain a certain percentage of the currency in banks, and its desire to increase profits through the granting of loans, adding that the postponement of traders المديونين to repay their obligations is another reason for the low liquidity in the banks.
He also warned Dr. Khalid increase printed Iraqi currency to overcome the crisis, saying that the increase printed currency will lead to lower its value against other currencies, especially since the Iraqi dinar has good value at the present time, adding that the proper solution to this problem lies issue a decision by the central bank to claim المديونين pay their financial obligations in a specific time and reconsideration Iraqi trade protocols, and to inject liquidity in the market or make a deal to trade agreements in U.S. dollars.
[link to translate.google.com
It's pretty obvious the plan worked. The statement clearly states...
"the low amount of Iraqi currency is due to several reasons the most important out of large amounts of currency to neighboring countries, "
So most traded in dinar for dollars to sell/smuggle to these other countries like Iran and Syria.
Low liguidity means just that. Not enough dinar. The only thing that will chjange this is the release of the smalls. The only thing that means is RV. This is what the beginning of the end looks like . They have bought enough dinar up that there is not longer enough in circulation to handle the needs of the economy. It's no wonder. At 299 million per day, unless they are knowingly buying counterfeit currency at sometine they have to run out of dinars. I said in another post yesterday that 299 milion USD equals 355 billion plus dinars. This is equal to basically a trillion dinars every three days. How many dinars are there?> The CBI stated almost a year ago that there were 27 trillion out. They also stated that in Iraq there were 4 trillion dinars in circulation. That leaves 27 - 4 = 23 trillion dinars. We know that we as investors represent 2 trillion. We guess the YUS at 4-5 trillion. China maybe 3 trillion. The rest of the world at another 6 trillon. That still leaves 11 trillion dinars unaccounted for ifyou belive the beginning numbers from the CBI and if they were not counting what was sitting in the CBI. If you consider that the CBI through the auctions, in the last 4 months has bought 150 million per day that is 178,350,000,00 billion dinars per day. 178,380 billion per day x's 80 days =14.268 trillion dinars. It's no wonder that they are very short on liquidity. How many days did they exceed 299 million sales of USD. Remember they are buying dinar selling USD. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that at sometime dinar liquidity in the middle east, especially in Iraq is extremly low. My computer will not let me correct anything that Ijust wrote without errasing the next letter so I appologize in advance for any misspelled words.
Even with the reciculation, buy and sell, the stocks of dinar in circulation has to be critical. Articles like the above only stand to confirm my conviction that we are close.
This may refer to, among other things, the Warka Bank incident in which they were taken into receivership because their reserves were too low (less than 200 billion dinar, as I recall). This may be happening throughout the country, according to this article.
This also may reflect the fact that Shabibi has been largely successful in removing the large notes from circulation in the country.
I believe the second paragraph refers to the plan to introduce a new currency and is saying that this should occur as soon as possible. I think that the phrase "lower the value of the dinar" is a mistranslation, since it is contradicted by the remainder of the sentence, which refers to the "good value" of the dinar. Therefore I say that this article is recommending going ahead with the change in the currency, which other articles from Parliament are saying is now imminent (beginning of THIS year). I believe the phrase "lower its value against other currencies" means going from 1166 per dinar to a "lower value" per dinar, which really means INCREASING the value of the dinar.