Iraq an economic Study

Economist: the problem of low liquidity includes all of Iraq

Thursday, 03 January 2013



Economic expert stressed that the crisis reduced the amount of Iraqi currency include all parts of Iraq, and not only the Kurdistan Region, due to widening trade relations with neighboring countries and the transfer of large amounts of currency abroad. Dr. Khaled Heydari professor at the University of Sulaimaniya told NNA that the low amount of Iraqi currency is due to several reasons the most important out of large amounts of currency to neighboring countries, pointing out that a large number of Iraqi banks did not comply with the instructions issued by the central bank and related to retain a certain percentage of the currency in banks, and its desire to increase profits through the granting of loans, adding that the postponement of traders المديوني&#160​6; to repay their obligations is another reason for the low liquidity in the banks.

He also warned Dr. Khalid increase printed Iraqi currency to overcome the crisis, saying that the increase printed currency will lead to lower its value against other currencies, especially since the Iraqi dinar has good value at the present time, adding that the proper solution to this problem lies issue a decision by the central bank to claim المديوني&#160​6; pay their financial obligations in a specific time and reconsideration Iraqi trade protocols, and to inject liquidity in the market or make a deal to trade agreements in U.S. dollars.



[link to translate.google.com]



Kaperoni:
It's pretty obvious the plan worked. The statement clearly states...
"the low amount of Iraqi currency is due to several reasons the most important out of large amounts of currency to neighboring countries, "

So most traded in dinar for dollars to sell/smuggle to these other countries like Iran and Syria.
--

tlar:
Low liguidity means just that. Not enough dinar. The only thing that will chjange this is the release of the smalls. The only thing that means is RV. This is what the beginning of the end looks like . They have bought enough dinar up that there is not longer enough in circulation to handle the needs of the economy. It's no wonder. At 299 million per day, unless they are knowingly buying counterfeit currency at sometine they have to run out of dinars. I said in another post yesterday that 299 milion USD equals 355 billion plus dinars. This is equal to basically a trillion dinars every three days. How many dinars are there?> The CBI stated almost a year ago that there were 27 trillion out. They also stated that in Iraq there were 4 trillion dinars in circulation. That leaves 27 - 4 = 23 trillion dinars. We know that we as investors represent 2 trillion. We guess the YUS at 4-5 trillion. China maybe 3 trillion. The rest of the world at another 6 trillon. That still leaves 11 trillion dinars unaccounted for ifyou belive the beginning numbers from the CBI and if they were not counting what was sitting in the CBI. If you consider that the CBI through the auctions, in the last 4 months has bought 150 million per day that is 178,350,000,00 billion dinars per day. 178,380 billion per day x's 80 days =14.268 trillion dinars. It's no wonder that they are very short on liquidity. How many days did they exceed 299 million sales of USD. Remember they are buying dinar selling USD. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that at sometime dinar liquidity in the middle east, especially in Iraq is extremly low. My computer will not let me correct anything that Ijust wrote without errasing the next letter so I appologize in advance for any misspelled words.

Even with the reciculation, buy and sell, the stocks of dinar in circulation has to be critical. Articles like the above only stand to confirm my conviction that we are close.



Ennorste:
This may refer to, among other things, the Warka Bank incident in which they were taken into receivership because their reserves were too low (less than 200 billion dinar, as I recall). This may be happening throughout the country, according to this article.

This also may reflect the fact that Shabibi has been largely successful in removing the large notes from circulation in the country.

I believe the second paragraph refers to the plan to introduce a new currency and is saying that this should occur as soon as possible. I think that the phrase "lower the value of the dinar" is a mistranslation, since it is contradicted by the remainder of the sentence, which refers to the "good value" of the dinar. Therefore I say that this article is recommending going ahead with the change in the currency, which other articles from Parliament are saying is now imminent (beginning of THIS year). I believe the phrase "lower its value against other currencies" means going from 1166 per dinar to a "lower value" per dinar, which really means INCREASING the value of the dinar.

Steve

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/03/2013 07:45 PM

Crazy day. Here's a brief synopsis...

1-4-13 ReVbo: Man, it must be absolute chaos over there. Nujaifi wants a no confidence vote. Maliki wants to dissolve Parliament. I'm seeing that, according to their constitution, to dissolve Parliament, they either need a Parliamentary majority or 1/3 of Parliament with the consent of the President of the Republic, Talibani, who we know is incapacitated at the moment, so do his powers go to someone else, or is that option off the table? What a mess. But then, hey, nobody ever said getting 100,000% return on investment was gonna be easy, huh?

Also, great article on currency...

Baghdad (newsletter) ... Banking expert confirmed Abdul Aziz Hassoun, Iraqi dinar maintains its value and does not vibrate with the Central Bank crisis, noting that the current Central Bank Administration to promote the power of the Iraqi dinar.

He said Hassoun (News News Agency): the Iraqi dinar has made him a force on its value and not vibrate to any financial or economic crisis in the country, including the Central Bank, because it hedged by cash reserves of hard currency.

He added: the current Central Bank management to increase the value of the Iraqi dinar and make it desirable internationally through monetary policy, as well as the application of the rules by banks to prevent the smuggling of currency or money laundering./finished/8 n. p

[link to www.microsofttranslator.com]

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/04/2013 06:13 PM

So, it looks like Talabani may actually be dead this time. And so the chaos continues...

[link to sna-news.net]

source confirmed the death of President Jalal Talabani in Germany, the source said in a statement, "told the secrets of news / not /" The president of the republic died the day before yesterday, at 3 in the morning. Adding that Hero Talabani returned to Sulaymaniyah Prepare to receive funeral ceremony. The source added that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan declined on the death of President while choosing his successor.

blah

US dollar USD 1166.000 1164.000
Indicative rates - 07.01.2013

What cha think of the EU ratification with Iraq guys?

Really, really good news.

Looks like Maliki's almost done, too.

Hey Rev bo just got back to Thailand. Not up to speed on the EU ratification with the Iraqi guys, got a link.

Maliki going away would bode well. sk

[link to www.europarl.europa.eu]

Here's a longer piece from an Arabic newspaper.

European Parliament agreed on a partnership agreement with Iraq in the fields of trade, investment and development (European - Archive)

Labib Fahmy - Brussels

Endorsed by the European Parliament today signed an historic agreement will determine the first contractual relationship between the EU and Iraq, and after the European Parliament formally approved the partnership and cooperation agreement signed by the two sides in May / May.

The parliamentary vote is like a green light for the Treaty to enter into force after formal adoption by the Member States. MEPs felt that the agreement would help to complete Iraq's transition towards democracy and reconstruction and normalization of relations with the international community.

It is expected to strengthen the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement bilateral relations in many fields ranging from trade to investment through development. With the help Iraq on the direction in the course of accession to the World Trade Organization.

The MP said Mario Mauro, who prepared the report, which was approved by the European Parliament, "The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement symbol of the commitment of the European Union to play an important role in the transition process in Iraq, and we have to work in order to match the political ambitions and strategic issues with human needs and financial resources."

He added that the political transition in Iraq is not yet complete, so "we need to provide economic opportunities and social measures, our goal is to strengthen the economic infrastructure of the country and ensure development and peace."

According to the agreement for a period of ten years, subject to renewal, ministers will meet the two parties a year to re-evaluate the progress made in the issues of peace, democracy and the rule of law.

And the European Union should help Iraq to join the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. The agreement will also, as stated in the text, human rights and fundamental freedoms and seeks to combat terrorism and weapons proliferation.

The MP said Mario Mauro Europe in the past need to a long transition period, and after 70 years became peace prevails, "but we still strive every day to more clarity for our politics., It is impossible for the Iraqis to reach stabilize the situation quickly, it is a long process. . and we support them. "

In a separate decision, the members of the European Parliament expressed concern about the violence and human rights violations in Iraq, and called on the Iraqi authorities to take more stringent measures to combat violence.

He also stressed MEPs urgently need Seen stronger EU in Iraq, and demanded human resources necessary for the European Union mission in Baghdad and ensure secure buildings to work effectively, so as to ensure the implementation of programs funded by the European Union and to monitor the human rights situation and the reform process.

[link to translate.google.com]


This is a statement from a member of the Euro parliament that goes along with it with some commentary from DA.

[link to www.dinarrecaps.com]

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/21/2013 08:58 AM

From a Powerpoint presentation by the CBI just today. Highlights at the bottom and commentary by Kaperoni.

[link to www.authorstream.com]

[link to dinaralert.webs.com]

5 - the Bank's approach for the coming years in light of the results of the analysis of the bank current and benefit from the results Bank adopts the following plans:

"Achieve stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar in the context of a flexible exchange rate system orbit. " - That means free float! Google it!

And this great quote...

"C - the issuance of currency - moving towards maturation of the project to delete three zeros from the Iraqi dinar, any so-called reform of the currency management system (Rebasing)." So as the dinar goes up in value, they will issue new smaller notes - as they say..."moving towards maturation of the project to delete three zeros from the Iraqi dinar" In other words, as the rate rise, the zeros will come off.

It's pretty much the entire plan laid out.

I will just add, IMO, the float must start ASAP...they are following the National Development Plan 2010-2014. Remember what the World Bank said would occur in 2014? Iraq would be a "doner" state. Therefore, the dinar must have value, and the deletion process must be done before then. There also have been articles that say that they will delete the zeros in 2014 which means the the value will be 1 to 1 or higher by then and the transition will be complete.
--

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/21/2013 08:33 PM

Thanks Revbo sounds encouraging and would seem to be going according to plan. We should be in the doe, ray, me by the end of the years. I was hoping for a little more progress, during the first part of this year, but perhaps its not in the cards. But as always, I remain certain of a payoff eventually. Until keeping busy here in Thailand, getting ready to open the other half of the resort. busy, busy, busy. Should you or some of the other dinar tards feel the need to roam, the door is open. sk

Thanks guys.

That's the first time you gave a link to DA that didn't have me log in (which I don't have).

Y'all want proof of an upcoming RV/float? You just got it, courtesy of none other than Abdul Bassit Turki himself, acting head of the Central Bank of Iraq. Here's a speech he gave at the banking conference earlier this month, followed by a translation that has been confirmed by OutOfTheWoods of Stryker's place and just a few minutes ago by Kaperoni's Arabic translator.

[link to dinaralert.webs.com]

The YouTube posting date of the referenced video for this information, is; January 21 2013

This is the Gov. of the Central Bank of Iraq; Dr Abdel Bassit Turki Saeed speaking January 12th 2013 at the Union of Arab banks conference in Baghdad. The governor explained current changes in banking law in Iraq and the monetary prevailing situation.

[link to www.youtube.com]

kaperoni: My Arabic translator reviewed this and said it was very good and accurate.


OutOfTheWoods: My son in law, translated this speech, while I (OOTW) transcribed. The points listed below are the noteworthy and predominant comments from the video:


1) Mr. Turki stated that Iraq has major resources; which, of course, oil is a part of, but there are also other major sources of wealth within Iraq.

2) Mr. Turki stated these resources will effect the Iraq economy strongly.

3) Mr. Turki went on to state Iraq soon plans on applying this wealth to back the currency of Iraq, for the benefit of the Iraqi peoples.

4) Mr. Turki said steps will be taken to "restructure" the Iraqi currency, which will be based on the country's resources, and the wealth of the resources will be reflected and applied to the value of the currency.

5) Mr. Turki stated that the measures taken to properly asing or instill the correct value of the currency, must be taken slowly and carefully, and so they will be.

6) Mr. Turki also stated the Central Bank of Iraq is currently in the process of applying these steps to the restructuring of the currency.

7) In conclusion, Mr. Turki said that 10% of the restructured currency will be retained by the CBI and 5% of the restructured currency will be distributed to exchange houses. It should be noted that Mr. Turki remained vague as to whether these changes would be put in place on a global scale, nor did he state that these changes effect only the Iraqi economy.

At no time during this speech, did Mr. Turki mention nor name the process "deletion of the zeroes", nor did he state within this speech, that Iraq is in the process of replacing the currency. In relationship to the Iraqi economy or currency, Mr. Turki continued to refer to the application of wealth to the currency, as "restructuring" of the value of the IQD.

Notes: : I asked my son in law in detail about the translation of this; "Does this mean 5% is going to other banks for distribution?" and he said no, he said, "Mr. Turki expressly stated that the five percent was going to be distributed to exchange houses so people may exchange the currency for the restructured currency". I also asked him (my son in law) "Did Turki mention anything about deletion of the zeroes or printing new money?" He said no.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/27/2013 06:13 PM

Wow ReVbo! Give me your take on that? Love to hear it!!

Don't see that on DV


Only 5%.... not a big restructure. right?

Last Edited by calin on 01/27/2013 07:39 PM

Bump for imminent RV.

Yeah, I can't believe this hasn't gotten more play. My take is pretty straightforward. I think Turki's comments speak for themselves. He says Iraq's wealth will be reflected in their currency, and that said wealth will strongly affect their economy. That doesn't happen with a few billion l-word-ed dinars. The l-word, as has been mentioned ad nauseum for years, is a neutral event that has zero effect pro or con on the local economy.

He says they are currently in the process of taking measures to "assign or instill" the "correct value of the currency," which, to me, means the current value is artificial and, when they have finished their preparations, we will see the real rate.

He refers to other major sources of wealth. I assume he's talking about the gold, phosphorus, and other resources, which will all contribute to backing the currency, and he says, specifically, that they will "soon" apply this wealth to back the currency. There's your asset-backed currency that has long been debated.

It's still a question of when and how much, but this is as close to confirmation of an increase in value at some future date as we're going to get until it actually happens. In fact, I'd say this is actual confirmation, not just close to it.

Still not completely sure about the 5%. Kap seems to think banks will get 85% of it, and the 5% means they have already collected most of the in-country physical dinar from the population. Banks still hold a lot of digital dinars, though, so they would, naturally, receive the vast majority of the new dinars.

kaperoni on the 5%:
IMO they are talking about the distribution of the new lower denominations of currency in Iraq. He seems to say that the local currency traders will get this currency (about 5%) of what was printed. 10% will be held back for replacements, etc. and 85% will go to banks.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/27/2013 08:06 PM

Yes, thinking the same then. Ya know, Shabibi spoke along the same lines too. This You tube presentation is current and reinforces the plan all along ... just my take. Nice to know! No "l" word either!

Your the best Rev!

Now.... where is our OP? ;)

I was just thinking I remembered Shabibi talking along those lines just before they ran him out of the country. Maliki is far too weak, at this point, to pull the same crap with Turki, though, evidenced by the former CBI deputy Saleh recently being released from jail. I don't remember Shabibi being this explicit, but you're absolutely right.

I'm sure seeker'll be along soon enough. He's in Thailand now, so he may be asleep at the moment. Not sure what time it is over there.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/27/2013 08:53 PM

Oh, that's right... he be sleeping! Well, maybe just getting up.

Glad Saleh got released.

Your are a gem Rev!

Hey Rev, Why not post it on DV?

Kinda tired of that place and don't really feel like managing a thread. I sent it to Kaperoni and he's building his conference call tomorrow night on it. Somebody with a little thicker skin and more patience can fight off the l-word-sters over there.


Here's the call info, if you're interested.

Special DinarAlert Conference Call - Monday, January 28th, 2013 - 6pm PT/ 7pm MT/ 8pm CT/ 9pm ET

DinarAlert continues to be the leader in keeping its members on-top, informed and up to date with the latest news and information regarding the pending revaluation of the New Iraqi Dinar.

DinarAlert is excited to have a special call Monday, January 28th 2013 @ 8pm CST hosted by Enorrste, Russell and Kaperoni.

This special call will discuss the latest news and events. We will discuss some of the highlights, fun and people we have met over the past couple of years. Don't miss DinarAlert's 2 year anniversary call!.


Please join us. (805) 399-1000 Code: 296983#

Skype:freeconferencing.8053991000

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/27/2013 09:03 PM

I will call from my cell - am at work... I can overlap!

Hmmm... 805 area code. Is that his location or just the conferencing number? 805 is near me.

Last Edited by calin on 01/27/2013 09:10 PM

It's tomorrow night, and it's just a conferencing number. Kaperoni is physically located in Minnesota. Enorrste is in California, and Russel is in Australia.

Yep... 805 is So Calif

Wow, the news looks good. Glad to see that the loppers are loosing ground.

An L makes no sense for good of Iraq or its people, but a revalue in the form of a float or a float after a fairly substantial increase in the exchange rate are in the cards and per the plan, it looks like our wait might be coming close to an end. Great find Revbo. Thanks. sk

Well, it looks like the cat's out of the bag. It just got posted at the guru site. Should be a fun day.

1-28-2013 Newshound Guru Kaperoni This video surfaced today...it directly pertains to the New Iraqi Dinar investment. Dr. Abdel Bassit Turki recently spoke at the Union of Arab banks conference January 12th, 2013..."Here is the translation sent to me from ReVbo. My Arabic translator reviewed this and said it was very good and accurate.": 1) Mr. Turki stated that Iraq has major resources; which, of course, oil is a part of, but there are also other major sources of wealth within Iraq. 2) Mr. Turki stated these resources will effect the Iraq economy strongly. 3) Mr. Turki went on to state Iraq soon plans on applying this wealth to back the currency of Iraq, for the benefit of the Iraqi peoples. [post 1 of 4....stay tuned]

Read more: [link to www.dinarguru.com]

TY ReVbo!

I like the phrase he used... restructuring the value of the IQD

So, CBI will be releasing smaller denoms?

I'm assuming so. Can't very easily buy a cheeseburger with a 1000 dinar note worth a thousand dollars. I think that's what the "5%" part was about.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 01/28/2013 09:10 AM

yea, that's what I was thinking.

DVs Betty boop had her crystal say March. I bet she is jazzed about this news.

LOL. That sounds like something from here. Is she a GLP transplant?

OK, I couldn't help myself. Nobody else was posting it, so I started the thread at DV. Enjoy.

[link to dinarvets.com]