Iraq an economic Study

How does this one sound?




MP Faizullah likely return of the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar to normal
29-03-2013 01:16 PM




Baghdad (news) .. Likely Vice President Finance Committee MP / coalition of Kurdish blocs / Ahmed Faizullah, the return of Iraqi dinar exchange rate to the price of natural versus the U.S. dollar, the requirement to take the central bank procedures necessary and the use of international expertise to support the national currency. said Faizullah (of the Agency news): The country is suffering from floundering his policy monetary and economic terms that the money that goes out of the country for imports more than the money that comes to the country from oil sales, etc., in addition to there other funds wasted in various ways. added: that the central bank must take its measures necessary to recover the value of the Iraqi dinar to natural rate against the U.S. dollar, and the use of international expertise should benefit from the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund to support the national currency. / end / 8.. /

Edited by yota691, Today, 04:27 AM.

Read more: [link to dinarvets.com]

Ha! Beat me to it by 5 minutes. Looks like Parliament is starting to get it now. Finally. This is huge! First time I've seen a member of Parliament mention this.

I think that study is from 2008, sk. The theory is, it was about to go back then, but Shabibi backed off, and sold a pile more dinar. Some of it ended up in Syria and Iran, which is what the delay, and the auctions, have been mainly about. CBI has been sucking it back in, so we should be back to similar fundamentals now that they're planning on drastically curtailing the auctions.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 03/29/2013 05:54 AM

Posted Today, 11:31 AM

3-29-13 SWFloridaGuy: Amazing news today(thanks Yota for the article) !! The Finance Committee VP announced that they will be returning the natural rate of the IQD against the USD which proves that Iraq's rate is artificially low due to war/sanctions and not solely due to excessive printing of the old notes. The IMF is also supporting and instructing them on how to accomplish this. Unless you believe in a straight RD, you've known this to be true from the start and why you made a great financial decision (low risk/high reward) in seizing this opportunity.



After talking to several people, with several different theories, I believe Iraq will take a more general convex function where the growth increases in a way completely disproportional to it's current value. In other words a float is doubtful, only if the suggestion is that they would be exponential/or in that neighborhood realistically, when speaking of incremental appreciations. But I don't discount it as a possibility because of what a few keep saying incorrectly about the ERM (which is reallly the ERM ll), and is often used to discount the possibility of a steady increase because the members voluntarily agree to contain their monetary exchange rates within a limited percentage margin. The only problem is this has ZERO to do with Iraq. Not even going to bother explaining why it's irrelevant, here's a pdf explaining stage 3 of this inconsequential (to the CBI) monetary union. [link to eur-lex.europ...010:0015:EN:PDF]



There's already way too much heat on Iraq concerning their currency and the hype. So although they could make incremental appreciations i.e., 1000 to 1 as the next step, I don't see them going that route and with this announcement from the Finance Committee it's pretty clear to me that a gradual increase will not accomplish their goals. I think a historic RV somewhere at least on par with the USD initially is the true direction their monetary reform project is headed.



Considering what Iraq has been through it's actually a fairly quick recovery and although its taken longer than we initially expected it will be long worth the wait. There is one exception to a historic RV that would eventually accomplish their goal of returning a proper value to the IQD. We know the IQD is only currently pegged to the USD as a defensive measure as Iraq rebuilds. So, they've been using the auctions to supply the market with dollars and help stabilize the IQD against the USD.



In theory this could also be accomplished by setting the daily price of the IQD in direction proportion to the daily USD price of a barrel of oil. Iraq keeps talking about going international. Well, either revalue your currency a minimum of 100,000% over night and sustain that growth long-term (which is the real challenge), or do a hybrid solution that would promote integration into world markets.



But according to the IMF, Finance Committee and CBI they have already accomplished the necessary economic/political growth to restore previous values to the IQD immediately. I still think Iraq applying for membership is one of the best clues we have currently and suggests that a big change is on the horizon for Iraq because WTO member countries MUST have a convertible currency. It is a requirement!!



I know someone will ask, "Well, if that's the case, then what about Panama and Vietnam?" Panama is the ONLY country who has exclusive rights to use the USD as its par-value currency and with their USD economy they offer no foreign exchange risk and no need for exchange controls and specific agreements with the IMF and World Bank that are exclusive to them and not common practice. Anyone, who says that Iraq doesn't need to raise the value of their currency to become an official WTO member (which they are claiming will be accomplished), hasn't done very good research.



It is true that the WTO accession process is long and drawn out but that's in part because Iraq will never accede until after their currency reform project has been initiated. Iraq's economic stagnation will remain until they have an internationally recognized and traded currency that's worth more than the termite nest in my back yard. As a member of the WTO, the IMF has very specific policies, under Article VIII and Article IV reviews, that forbid Multiple Currency Practices and Currency Manipulation.



They are grilling Iraq right now and the IQD is being heavily scrutinized. You can bet that those Senior Iraqi Officials receiving training from them already have a plan (whatever that may be), to be put into action soon. They must have an IQD with an internationally accepted value that will support trade and aren't adopting the USD as their National Currency like Panama.



Two good quote from Ministry of Commerce and International Trade Organization, "Iraq's accession to WTO will allow it to strengthen its economy and restart industrial institutions", "Iraq's accession to the WTO will allow it to strengthen its economy and restart institutions industrial" and "Iraq's accession to the WTO means returning to its real and essential in the global economy and that it must be the fact that Iraq an active and influential in the international economy.



The bottom line is it's in Iraq's best interest to move forward with their economic reform project now, which is exactly what today's article is saying. Prior to the actual event the news won't get much better than that.

Edited by SWFloridaGuy, Today, 11:31 AM.

Read more: [link to dinarvets.com]

Love me some SWFG, calin! That guy has been doing some interviews with economists lately, which is where all this is coming from. Incidentally, I know I've been a free float guy for a long time but I'm coming back to an RV-type scenario now. The news has completely dropped off about a float and been replaced, as in today's article with language implying a significant RV, and that seems to be what SWFG's people are telling him, too.

Check this out! Kuwait is ready to go!


Kuwaiti Prime Minister: File border with Iraq over .. And I am ready to go to Baghdad, even if they wanted me to go today

29-03-2013 06:50 PM

Baghdad (news) .. confirmed Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Mubarak Al-Sabah, said his country ended file border with Iraq and replaced what اعتراه of problematic latest compensation Iraqi farmers who were affected by maintenance of border markers between the two countries through the construction of approximately 200 residential units alternative to them in cooperation with Iraqi government.

He said the morning, in a statement to the newspaper 'Middle East' of London, in its edition on Friday: The 'Kuwait finished file border with Iraq and addressed file houses border on the Iraqi side and I look forward to visit Baghdad and wait for rescheduled by the brothers in Iraq.'

Mubarak revealed 'a meeting between the Emir of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Iraqi Vice President Khudair Khuzaie during the Arab summit which concluded in Doha, Qatar (Tuesday) included a search in the bilateral relations between the two countries'.

He added: 'were discussed my visit upcoming Iraq and I'm ready to go to Baghdad at any time, even if they wanted me to go today, I am ready, but we are waiting for an appointment visit by them', considering the upcoming meeting, which Sijmah counterpart Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad 'very important and Sacefy many matters and will handle binary files between the two countries'. / end / o. p /

[link to translate.google.com]
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3. Estimate the amended exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to be used in technical and economical feasibility studies and for (1.134) dollar per dinar. This price should be approved for 3 years until re-appreciation by the competent authorities.

This makes sense to me. It has to end up at, at least $1. Most people would cash in at that rate because they need it or waited so long and God forbid the whole thing falls apart.

They also could put a term limit on the cash in "3 years" or less and then if you hold the old Dinar T.S. for you. Then after the three years it could float or whatever up to it's true value over $3 dollars. This would save them an ass ton of money and everybody goes home with a big fat shit eating grin on their faces. Plus I think by law they can only raise the rate by small amounts in a certain time frame. So all they need to do is give a small window to cash the old ones in and then watch it grow.

I wonder how many people will cash out and then reinvest in the new Dinar? I wish I had enough to do that.

Hey Rev, which place was it that had the million option but still gave 100k if no RV?

Thanks

Oh I almost forgot!

I get mine from Sterling Currency, but DinarTrade does a guaranteed reserve, too. They're both about the same price. There may be others, too, but those are the only ones I'm familiar with.

I have always felt a direct RV of at least one to one is the way they would proceed, as a float would give large investors a heads up and given Iraq's oil revenues, most would see it a great investment. In the end allowing many to get invested at a low rate anticipating a raise, which would be expensive in the long run for Iraq. This I believe is the best argument for a strong RV at first, perhaps even higher than 1 to 1 thus reducing the chances of large speculators from getting in on the action.

April 1 seems to be popular. At least if it doesn't happen they can say April fools!

Ha ha lets hope not.

Talkstory: could you kindly repost or direct to existing posts your recommendations on exchanging for lawful money? It would be greatly appreciated!

Thread: Pay No Taxes legally -End the FED -synopsis page 8-Why are waiting for someone to do it for us like Ron paul

Everything you need to know is on page one with a good synopsis on page 8

Are we rich?

Not quite.

Shall we wait for end of day before calling it a bust for 4/1?

I think it would be safe to say April 1 ain't gonna happen.

Gotta get this Kuwaiti/Ch7 issue finished, and then, I'll start looking for something to pop. The Kuwaitis are begging to come to Iraq to sign off, but so far, no invitation from Maliki. I see the Parliamentary Finance Committee is inviting them, but I don't know if that will be a big enough invitation to get them there.

Also, we got a really good article, this morning, about how the value of the dinar is low due to lack of liquidity of dinar in the banks. That tells me CBI has sucked a large amount of dinar out of the market, and they're even trying to sell more dollars, which will mop up a lot more dinars, and get the street rate in line with the CBI rate, allowing them to make the big move. It's kinda counter-intuitive why less dinars equals lower street rate, but I think it's just that the existing dinar is worn out, and people prefer the dollar at an 1166 rate. Once the real outstanding dinar numbers are released, and they issue new currency, they will be able to bring the rate way up.

Oh yeah, forgot to mention, we had news about a week or so ago that the auctions are being dramatically reduced April 15, so this news about selling dollars through the banks to get the street rate in line with the CBI rate seems odd. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that they are introducing a two week program to get two rates together, and the big move happens on or near April 15.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 04/01/2013 09:02 AM

Monday, 01 April 2013 16:40

Baghdad (AIN) -MP Radad al-Dahlaki of the Iraiqya Slate announced that "The Council of Ministers will vote, during Tuesday session, on the amendment of the General Amnesty Law and the Accountability & Justice Law."

Dahlaki stated to All Iraq News Agency (AIN) "The Council of Ministers agreed that the laws which are molded by the Five-Side Commission are displayed for vote at the CoM without discussion as being petitioned and discussed by the Five-Side Commission."

"The CoM, then, sends the two law drafts to the parliament for vote," he added. /End/

[link to www.alliraqnews.com]

We had news about a week or so ago that the auctions are being dramatically reduced April 15, so this news about selling dollars through the banks to get the street rate in line with the CBI rate seems odd. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that they are introducing a two week program to get two rates together, and the big move happens on or near April 15.

Here the April 15 article again, FYI, and banks selling large amounts of dollars starting today article follows it.

CBI dollar restricts withdrawals

26/03/2013

Baghdad morning's New

Issued CBI, new instructions to stabilize the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies select the stakes weekly for banks and remittance companies and trading firms currency from the dollar appreciates as capital each, and will increase and decrease of this share exchange for a commitment each delivery amounts they want customers from citizens . He said the Iraqi Central Bank that this directive was intended to stabilize the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, and meet the needs of the private sector of foreign currency to import goods and services, as well as to encourage banks to increase its range of services to meet the demands of its customers in foreign currency. According to the instructions, the Iraqi banks, they can buy $ 4 million subject to increase or decrease as a share of weekly for banks in the light of its commitment to the delivery of the currency of the beneficiaries of the citizens at specified prices by him. And was instructed to sign acting central bank governor, Abdul Basit Turki, and will take effect from next April 15.


[link to translate.google.com]
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Baghdad (news) .. According to economist Ismail Radi, that further opening outlets for the sale of hard currency by the banks will decrease the U.S. dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar, it would meet the market needs of the dollar.

Radi said (of the Agency news): The reason for increasing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Iraqi dinar during the current period in the domestic market, due to strict central bank measures to sell hard currency and to the lack of the dollar in the market.

He added: be directed Rasheed Bank government to open ten outlets in hard currency at subsidized prices from the central bank will contribute significantly to enhancing the value of the national currency, calling to encourage private banks to open more than one port for the sale of hard currency with control transfers external financial.

It was announced in the Rasheed Bank Kadhum Mohammed fistula, for processing citizens across ten dollars of bank branches in Baghdad from this week.

The Iraqi market has witnessed a major upheaval for weeks in the price of the U.S. dollar against the Iraqi dinar as the sale price of one dollar to 1280 dinars.

[link to translate.google.com]
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Last Edited by Revbo™ on 04/01/2013 09:21 AM

Isn't this about bringing the rate back to 1166 instead of the 1280?



I don't know how anyone can make heads or tails of those articles! :)

Yes, it is. It's a subtle difference between articles that talk about the big change vs. that little discrepancy, but this one is definitely about the street rate vs. the CBI rate.

We've seen a few guru types mention that a lot of foreign dignitaries have been arriving in Baghdad, CBI specifically, in the last week, or so. I didn't want to allow myself to believe it until I got confirmation from this guy on SWFG's website today. This guy only posts there and SWFG trusts him, so I think it's worth posting. His guy works at the embassy.

LapDog:
MY COMPLIANCE OFFICER GUY DID SAY THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE NUMBER OF DIPLOMATS AND OFFICIALS ARRIVING IN BAGHDAD OVER THE PAST WEEK. UNSEEN LIKE THIS BEFORE.

HE SAID THEY ARE WORKING AROUND THE CLOCK TO GET THESE ARRIVING WHATEVERS (DIPLOMATS, DIGNATARIES, OFFICIALS, TECHNICIANS, ETC.) TO THEIR DESTINATIONS IN TOTAL SAFETY.

BY THE WAY --- HE MENTIONED SOMETHING INTERESTING. BECAUSE OF MONEY LAUNDERING AND IQD BEING TAKEN OUT OF IRAQ --- SECURITY MEASURES HAVE BEEN TIGHTENED SEVERELY. HE HIMSELF CANNOT NOW ENTER KURDISTAN ON HIS IRAQ PASSPORT AND CREDENTIALS FROM THE PAST. HE HAS BEEN ISSUED NEW, SPECIAL ID JUST TO CROSS INTO AND BACK FROM KURDISTAN.

WHAT THIS TELLS US IS THAT THE GOI IS MAKING A REAL EFFORT TO CURB MONEY LAUNDERING AND IQD FLOWING OUT OF IRAQ --- ALL IN AN EFFORT TO GET THIS CURRENCY PROCESS COMPLETED.

MY GUY SAYS SINCE JOHN KERRY WAS IN BAGHDAD THINGS HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY FOR THE BETTER. PEOPLE NOW SEEM TO BE IN A HURRY TO "GET THINGS DONE." WHATEVER THAT MAY MEAN.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 04/01/2013 04:21 PM

Cool! Appreciate that.

Could it be because of the 4/9 anniversary event?

I guess but they didn't do anything for the march19 date.

calin: Got a little update from LapDog yesterday which may clarify your question. I could see lots of diplomats/politicians/etc showing up for the 10 year liberation anniversary, but not these types...


LapDog:
LISTEN AND LEARN .........WHEN OFFICIALS AND TECHNICIANS ARRIVE AT THE BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THEY ARE IMMEDIATELY TAKEN BY GUARDED ENVOY TO A BUILDING NEAR THE AIRPORT CALLED THE "OFFICIAL DIPLOMATIC SECURITY COMPOUND" ----- WHERE THEY ARE THEN ESCORTED TO OTHER PROTECTED VEHICLES AND TRANSPORTED TO THEIR FINAL DESTINATIONS. THAT IS HOW IT WORKS. MY COMPLIANCE SPECIALIST FRIEND IS PART OF THE GROUP THAT OVERSEES THIS ACTIVITY.

MY GUY TOLD ME ON THE PHONE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (2 CALLS) THE AIRPORT HAS BEEN FLOODED WITH INBOUND FLIGHTS OF IMF AND WORLD BANK TECHNICIANS THERE TO TRAIN THE IRAQI BANK PERSONNAL IN INTERNATIONAL BANKING PLATFORMS.

I TAKE THAT AS VERY POSITIVE NEWS.

OHHHH... OK! That sounds like they are ready to do international trading then.

anyone know what happpend to frank the tank 26's website?

Posted Today, 06:46 PM
Kuwaiti excesses on the Iraqi border; comes under the law of the UN

02/04/2013 09:13:00

BAGHDAD / NINA / Independent MP, Jawad Al-Bazooni said that there were no any Kuwaiti excesses on the Iraqi border, and what happen on the Iraqi- Kuwait border is a natural comes under the law of the United Nations regarding the demarcation of the border after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait by the former regime in 1990.



He told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / “Iraq is obliged to accept the decisions of the United Nations to expedite getting out from Chapter Seven of the UN Charter, even though they were unfair because there are many farms and oil wells of Iraq within Kuwaiti territory.”



He added: “The Iraqi-Kuwaiti relations are getting better after resolving all disputes including border demarcation, Iraqi Airways, the detainees’ file in addition to exchange visits between officials, which make Iraq on the eve of getting out from Chapter Seven, especially after Kuwait cooperation in this aspect.”



[link to www.ninanews....?ar95_VQ=GHDFHL]

Read more: [link to dinarvets.com]

Last Edited by calin on 04/02/2013 08:26 PM

Looks like Kuwait is coming after all. All day, we've seen articles saying they were coming in a month, in July, or whenever they felt like it. I've also been wondering why th Kuwaiti PM has been begging Iraq to come sign them out of Ch7. Well, I just got my answer. Apparently, they've already been invited, and are just not saying when they're coming due to security concerns. With another piece by the Kuwaiti foreign minister saying they want them out as soon as possible, Ch7 should be done in the next week or so.

Also, I'm gonna put something out there, and want to see what you folks think about this. On March 24, there was a little article that came out about CBI restricting the 25 banks that participate in the auctions to selling $4m a week starting April 15. That's just $100m a week in dollars that will be available. Right now, auctions are $130m/day give or take, so dollar availability will be cut by about 80-90%. Also, we got news, late last week, that banks will now be selling subsidized dollars directly to citizens who can buy up to $5000 a week. These two policies seem diametrically opposed to each other, and the most recent one is taking place starting only two weeks before the other. The only thing I can think of is they are sucking out as much dinar as they can for the next two weeks in anticipation of the big change coming on April 15, where they stop selling dollars almost entirely. I'm not calling it for April 15, but this is as close as you'll ever get Revbo to say something big is coming.




Revealing Iraqi authorities announced later visit of His Highness the Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak to Baghdad, which was scheduled in early April, under local reports that the change time occurred in the date of the visit, because of threats persist source «group Izzat al-Duri» ( one corners the former Baathist regime), which has vowed last month to target the plane that would fall below the Prime Minister to the capital neighbor north.
took the prime minister of Iraq, which the author of the invitation, Multi visit b «confidential» has been released about any statement about the news that postpone visit the official delegation of Kuwait, also did not answer telephone calls tried to «opinion» clarify the matter.
The Iraqi Foreign Ministry is responsible for arranging the ceremony's upcoming visit there to learn about the visit something, says its agent for Policy Planning, however, Abawi, a second person in the diplomatic corps after the Iraqi Minister Hoshyar Zebari.
Abbawi In a telephone interview with «opinion» yesterday afternoon, said in the form of a brief that «will be in contact with the office of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in order to set a date for the visit», refusing to comment on whether the visit was postponed , because «scheme targeting hostile».
His Highness Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak announced Saturday that he expected an appointment his first visit to Baghdad since he took office by the Iraqi side.
In a statement the day before yesterday to a local television channel, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iraq however, Abawi, that al-Maliki had already extended an invitation to his Kuwaiti counterpart and was accepted, pointing out that «Iraq welcomes accept the invitation by the Prime Minister of the State of Kuwait to visit Baghdad».
confirmed Abbawi a «understanding with the Kuwaiti side to follow the file Chapter VII jointly, as well as having Coordination on the formation of a joint technical committee in collaboration with the United Nations but outside the mandate of the Special Coordinator, and therefore, this file semi-closed », adding that« the Kuwaiti side responsive with very Iraq's efforts to emerge from Chapter VII ».
and visit and described as «historic» and is expected to resolved a number of outstanding issues between the two countries, not hampered by the security aspect, but there are voices from inside Iraq wants apparently «confusion» on this visit, through invitations to host Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari in parliament and accountability for things on the relationship with Kuwait, as well as More remarks described by control circuits b «escalatory» to hand normalize the relationship with southern neighbor of Iraq.
Among these votes, topping voice of Sheikh Abbas Muhammadawi Secretary-General's «coalition Sons of Iraq fervent» which describe the process of demarcation of the border between the two countries, which announced the completion of a final, as an attempt «to seize Iraqi territory, by Kuwait, as part of the scheme (U.S. - Israeli) to control Iraq and weaken».
Muhammadawi which has no official position or political, he said that «the loss of Iraqi territory in front of us and annexed to Kuwait under the supervision of America and the United Nations , is an event the worst in the history of Iraq », calling to arms to confront what he described as« aggression Kuwait ».
and added that «the American occupation - Israeli Iraq still projects existed, did not stop the departure of U.S. troops, Valtjauzat Kuwait on Iraqi territory under the pretext of border demarcation and the displacement of people from their homes, and the establishment of the port of Mubarak, which prohibits Iraq from overlooking the Gulf, and the ongoing attacks on fishermen, all represent the face of the faces of the project aimed to weaken Iraq and control it easily ».
said Muhammadawi that «these abuses on the Kuwaiti Iraqi sovereignty will be stopped when alone through arms and rally the people to address the Kuwaiti aggression, especially in light of the ambiguity of the position of the Iraqi government about what is happening, calling organizations and parties Iraqi military wing to «teach Kuwait unforgettable lesson from the painful military strikes in the depth of Kuwait.

Read more: [link to dinarvets.com]

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 04/03/2013 12:25 PM

Hi ReV, what is subsidized dollars?

They're going to sell dollars through banks at 1179:1 (or thereabouts) directly to the public. The way it works now is they sell those dollars to the banks at 1179:1 through the auctions, and banks sell it to the public, or street vendors, at another markup. The goal is to eliminate street vendors and bring the street rate in line with the CBI rate. The street rate has floated up to something like 1280:1, and they need to get the two rates closer together to make a big change more believable.

Last Edited by Revbo™ on 04/03/2013 01:16 PM