During the last 24 hours Hekla has been the recipient of 3 earthquakes and four microseismical events ranging from 0M to 0.7M. The depth has ranged from 7.5km to 0.7km. The fartherest earthquake was an 0.2M yesterday that was 5km due east. The trend has been from east to the center under the volcano proper. The seismics has trended from depth and upwards. Todays quake at 0.7 is on top of the uppermost of the magma chambers of Hekla.
Due to the logarithmic scale, earthquakes at 0M is not exactly zero, so they do exist, it is just that the scale gets a bit wonky in the really low end.
There has been no rise in the tremor levels and so far no reports of increases in gas emission. There has also been no rapid GPS motion during the last 2 weeks. Currently the borehole strainmeters are offline due to a server failure. Many of these specialized plots are piped through the server that hosts the older parts of the site. The problem will hopefully be fixed in the morning.
This behaviour is not what was seen during the last eruption. In 2000 the small quakes (below 0.5M) started about 2 hours before the eruption started. This is far more outspread.
My judgement is that this is a sign of a coming eruption. But what neither I, nor anyone else can say, is when that will happen. It is though most likely not far around the bend due to Hekla being judged to be close, since quite some time, by the IMO.
Currently we have twice the uplift and magma influx compared to 2000, we have had borehole transients, and odd seismic activity. So, the signs do really lean towards an eruption being close. Problem is just that we as always are talking about anything from in 2 hours, to somewhere in the next decade or so.
So in the end we can just sum it up as Hekla being her usual and mysterious self.
For the press
What is stated above about Hekla being close to an eruption should be understod as that she is always close to an eruption. That is her nature. Hekla currently does not warrant more than a short notice at most. And please dear lord, do not write any doom and gloom story about the end of the world. At most it will be a nuisance. Same goes for Katla.
[link to volcanocafe.wordpress.com