Santorini – End of Civilisation
Posted on February 1, 2012by volcanocafe ... Signs of an upcoming eruption
Up until a couple of years ago Santorini was subsidizing, this together with cyclic swarms of earthquakes over at Colombo Reef lead researchers to believe that an eruption was up and coming at that location, and not at Santorini.
About a year ago a marked inflation started at Nea Kameni together with increase in CO2, SO2 and the Santorini marker gas of Radon. Together with an increase in seismic activity lead to the scientists starting to keep a bit of a closer watch on the volcano.
Lately we have seen quite a few more signs of an upcoming eruption. We have now had swarms of earthquakes inside the caldera at the right depth, microseismics that remind of popping giant popcorn in a spectral analysis, and of course harmonic tremoring lasting from hours to days.
We should though know that this has happened before in volcanoes of this type without anything happening. But let us say that the likelihood of an eruption happening has risen quite a lot.
What will an eruption look like?
Most likely an eruption now would be a dome forming event at Nea Kameni. The beginning will be explosive, and then trending to effusive as lavas are extruded. Most likely it will be a VEI-2 event, but a VEI-3 is not out of the question. The eruptive period is hard to predict, it could be anything from one month to four years. There is really no saying which. And historical records do not give much help; it is equally possible that the eruption will be short as long. Playing hard and fast with statistics here would only give silly results due to lack of substantiating occurrences.
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