Ramon Ortiz (CSIC): “We are in a third phase of volcanic process’
The scientist Ramon Ortiz, earlier this week in El Hierro, where he travels frequently to analyze the evolution of the volcanic process.
Silvia Fernandez / La Restinga
The expert said that CSIC volcanism in iron have been two eruptive since July, south and north. estimated that now we have a third phase of recovery that could end in another mouth. in Lanzarote and Tenerife is no record of eruptions with pauses for years.
- What time is the eruption of La Restinga?
- An emission center is running out. You can take an average of fifteen days, ten or twenty-five be, but is in the final. And do not think there is a revival because the tide slows a magma that has no pressure to leave. But the party continues.
- What do you mean?
- We have detected two weeks ago a revival of the phenomenon to be monitored because if the trend continues it could result in a new eruptive locus.
- However, since IGN is noted that the current seismicity response to a tectonic realignment after the eruption
- This is tectonic seismicity. It has nothing to do. We work with models and of course now this seismicity does not conform to a model of relaxation. Was adjusted until Christmas and from mid-January has ceased to be a model of relaxation and appears to be reviving again, who is serving the same pattern of July. What will culminate in an eruption?, Do not know. What is on land or near the coast and see?, Do not know. But for the CSIC are now in a third cycle.
- A third phase?
- Yes The first began in July and ended in October, with the eruption of La Restinga. The second cycle was shorter. Began in October when many earthquakes accumulated after the eruption, and ended between 4 and 11 November. Time when we understand that there was a new focus of eruption to the north, in very deep water and not seen. Only observed for the signals that we saw in the system. And now, she is producing a third cycle, which could also stop erupting.
- Seismicity What about now?
- The magnitudes are very small. Of 2, 2.4 and up 2.8 degrees. Is having around 15 earthquakes per day in the north and in south, the latter being smaller. Furthermore, the deformation of 5 mm, has not subsided. If it goes below the island should deflate and return to baseline. As for gas, takes ITER, but according to them again increased CO2 emissions. This implies that increased fracturing and Co2 comes from magma. It’s another thing that confirms that the story is not over.
- Are there cases in other rash Canary cycles?
- Of course. In Lanzarote, Timanfaya, lasted six years with many pauses. And in Tenerife have come to take three eruptions in a year. If the intrusion of magma is very large increases the possibility of new mouths.
- How much magma speak in this case and how much you have left in the mouth of La Restinga?
- At first there was talk of 100 million cubic meters, which is not much. But then very large earthquakes occurred, more than 4.5. To compress the rock so the volume should be increased and we esteemed him in a cubic kilometer, that to give you an idea is like a stone 500 kilos per capita in the world (6.8 million). As for what has gone, but not known exactly, we estimate that 240 cubic meters. Are 820, but does not have to leave everything.
- What do you think Ramon Ortiz is going to happen?
- I’ll answer in order of probability. First, seismic activity is picking up. If this is accelerated again have large earthquakes, which could happen in 20 days and then you can open a new broadcast center in two or three months. Second, it may happen that the activity ceases, no more and that the magma is down.
- The hypothesis of a new eruption can cause some alarm.
- We are not pessimistic and do not want to scare anyone but we have to consider all scenarios to work with the worst possible. It tries to anticipate what might happen and so far we have done well because they have met all our forecasts. We are in favor of reporting what is really going to educate. In any case, although this new eruption reached need not happen anything. If you pass will know well in advance ..
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