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A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:49 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Somebody took their fingers off the end of the balloon. Psssssssssssssssss. Should we be worried if it heads on up to X levels?
 Quoting: Sedi


A CME from a C-flare can cause more damage than a CME from an X...It just depends on the nature of the beast..Some people are saying that a filament has exploded with this CME which could really multiply it`s effects...I haven`t verified the filament yet but that is a HUGE CME with this flare..
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


The CME that caused the Carrington Event wasn't a monster like people are lead to believe. Yeah, it was a big CME but what really did the trick was the timing of two CME's hitting us at the same time.

Just like waves on waves creates a superwave, CME's can compound the effects as well.

It is widely believed the first CME paved the way and reduced most of the general resistence along the way to Earth. Then another hours later released and both landed on Earth simultaneously.



Also, you mentioned a reversal to a normal action N/S. If this CME is Southern Oriented, we got to start considering a global power grid loss.
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:49 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

cygnetstreamer just been update...........

Doom On

bump
Blue Skies

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01/19/2012 01:50 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Then where is my warning email from space weather.....huffy lol
:kitten on fence:
NiNzrez

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01/19/2012 01:50 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.solarham.com]

Sunspot 1402 Eruption: A major eruption starting at 14:30 UTC Thursday took place around Sunspot 1402. This long duration event peaked at M3.2. A large Two-Wave (CME) is seen in the latest images, a portion of which appears to be Earth directed. The major bulk of the plasma cloud appears to be directed north.

Looks like we may just get glanced...still early yet..most opinions are just speculation at this point..
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


i disagree
half will go north, but the other half of the bulk will be directed at us
we can see this my looking at earths proximity to the sun today
You can see on iswa Earths proximity to region 1402 where this CME was produced

1402 is located directly above 1401, and Earth is in direct proximity to 1401

Half of the bulk from this CME is earth directed, the other half is northward directed and will not effect earth
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
earthproxjan19
sunearth
 Quoting: NiNzrez



Cool Nin---I appreciate your hard work and help on the thread...Going to be interesting watching it come in..
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


all about team work :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:51 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.solarham.com]

Sunspot 1402 Eruption: A major eruption starting at 14:30 UTC Thursday took place around Sunspot 1402. This long duration event peaked at M3.2. A large Two-Wave (CME) is seen in the latest images, a portion of which appears to be Earth directed. The major bulk of the plasma cloud appears to be directed north.

Looks like we may just get glanced...still early yet..most opinions are just speculation at this point..
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


i disagree
half will go north, but the other half of the bulk will be directed at us
we can see this my looking at earths proximity to the sun today
You can see on iswa Earths proximity to region 1402 where this CME was produced

1402 is located directly above 1401, and Earth is in direct proximity to 1401

Half of the bulk from this CME is earth directed, the other half is northward directed and will not effect earth
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
:earthproxjan19:
:sunearth:
 Quoting: NiNzrez


don't forget when it hits, in a few days, earth will have also moved in its orbit somewhat away from it. We shall just have to watch. We have been hit more directly than this and all that happens is people feel weird, tempers rise, and we usually but not always get more quakes. This sun is still not anywhere near as active as it should be at this point. Much of that is related to fleet work on it. They caused the long min in the first place.
Mart Alien
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01/19/2012 01:51 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
ohhhhhhh noooo the sun as fart againwhatever
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:51 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Then where is my warning email from space weather.....huffy lol
 Quoting: Blue Skies


Sever fried by sun spot perhaps.

rockon
Blue Skies

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01/19/2012 01:53 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Then where is my warning email from space weather.....huffy lol
 Quoting: Blue Skies


Sever fried by sun spot perhaps.

rockon
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9148920

Yes.....thats it. Thats the reason. lol
:kitten on fence:
Madame X

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01/19/2012 01:54 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Will it warm us up?
"The wise man's home is the universe." ~ Democrites

Catch the blue train...somewhere down that crazy river.
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:54 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Waiting on sun doom so we can start this all over again..lol

It does now appear to be earth direct...at least thats the chatter going around..HUGE cme
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>




brother sun has nothing to do with doom and everything to do with new energies/codes coming in:)


lol


but you'all can believe in doom if that makes you feel good..


lol

talk to any psychic and they will tell you how important the sun is and what he is doing as a part of the divine plan...


this is the end times, the unvierse is alive and assisting this shift...

you will see/feel much more amazing stuff..



just know ALL IS WELL
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:54 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
You people are funny.

Welcome to nature. This is how Sun works and has been working for years....

Nothing to see here. Move on.
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:55 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
...


Nin--I can`t recall ever seeing a M-flare last this long before...Have you?? It`s still above M level..
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


it has not happened this cycle
not to sure about the other cycles
i know we looking into LDEs for the other cycles about a year ago on the solar thread, but wow that would be a chore to look up haha
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I have SEEN these in the past year.
 Quoting: Nobody in Particular


3 and half hours above the "M" level NIP...I don`t think so. I have been watching the sun daily for over two years and haven`t ever seen one like this...I don`t even think I`ve seen a C-class event last this long...at least not a single c-class flare...

:xf1:
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

Not in 5 years, i never saw this, looks interesting
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:55 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Type II and IV events are caused by slower-moving solar material propagating outward at speeds varying between approximately 800 and 1600 kilometers per second. Type II and IV radio bursts are of particular importance.

These sweep frequency radio events are signatures of potentially dense solar material which has been ejected from the solar surface. If the region responsible for these events is well positioned, the expelled solar material may succeed in impacting with the Earth. Such an impact often causes an SSC followed by Minor to Major geomagnetic storm conditions and significantly degraded radio propagation conditions. It is therefore interesting to pay attention to events which cause Type II and/or IV radio sweep events, since they may indicate the potential for increased magnetic activity (and decreased propagation quality) within 48 hours. It should be noted, however, that predicting degraded terrestrial conditions is significantly more complex than simply observing whether the energetic event had an associated Type II or IV radio sweep. Flare position, proton spectra, flare size, event duration, event intensity and a host of other variables must be analyzed before a qualitative judgement can be made.

It should also be noted that sweep frequency radio events are capable of producing Short Wave Fades (SWFs) and Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SIDs). Depending on the severity of the event, the duration of SWFs and SIDs may last in excess of several hours with typical values being approximately 30 minutes. SWFs and SIDs cause absorption of radio signals (due to intense ionization) at frequencies up to and well in excess of 500 MHz. Microwave continuum bursts can affect frequencies up to 30 GHz. Frequencies in the HF region can be completely blacked out for a period of time during intense energetic events.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9138176


I wonder if the Sun was responsible for the strange noises heard around the World in localized spots. The ionosphere can pulse and all it needs is to pulse at an audible frequency for us to hear it.

So maybe the Earth was getting hit with solar energies causing ionospheric oscilations in base altitude.
NiNzrez

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01/19/2012 01:55 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

cygnetstreamer just been update...........

Doom On

bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9148920


thanks for adding this
this shows same as i suspected
about half earth directed
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 01:57 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Type II and IV events are caused by slower-moving solar material propagating outward at speeds varying between approximately 800 and 1600 kilometers per second. Type II and IV radio bursts are of particular importance.

These sweep frequency radio events are signatures of potentially dense solar material which has been ejected from the solar surface. If the region responsible for these events is well positioned, the expelled solar material may succeed in impacting with the Earth. Such an impact often causes an SSC followed by Minor to Major geomagnetic storm conditions and significantly degraded radio propagation conditions. It is therefore interesting to pay attention to events which cause Type II and/or IV radio sweep events, since they may indicate the potential for increased magnetic activity (and decreased propagation quality) within 48 hours. It should be noted, however, that predicting degraded terrestrial conditions is significantly more complex than simply observing whether the energetic event had an associated Type II or IV radio sweep. Flare position, proton spectra, flare size, event duration, event intensity and a host of other variables must be analyzed before a qualitative judgement can be made.

It should also be noted that sweep frequency radio events are capable of producing Short Wave Fades (SWFs) and Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SIDs). Depending on the severity of the event, the duration of SWFs and SIDs may last in excess of several hours with typical values being approximately 30 minutes. SWFs and SIDs cause absorption of radio signals (due to intense ionization) at frequencies up to and well in excess of 500 MHz. Microwave continuum bursts can affect frequencies up to 30 GHz. Frequencies in the HF region can be completely blacked out for a period of time during intense energetic events.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9138176


I wonder if the Sun was responsible for the strange noises heard around the World in localized spots. The ionosphere can pulse and all it needs is to pulse at an audible frequency for us to hear it.

So maybe the Earth was getting hit with solar energies causing ionospheric oscilations in base altitude.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1405546


bingo
TheOracle

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01/19/2012 01:59 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
...


Nin--I can`t recall ever seeing a M-flare last this long before...Have you?? It`s still above M level..
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


it has not happened this cycle
not to sure about the other cycles
i know we looking into LDEs for the other cycles about a year ago on the solar thread, but wow that would be a chore to look up haha
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I have SEEN these in the past year.
 Quoting: Nobody in Particular


a M LDE?
now ill have to go look...

Edit: NIP is right
we have had 2 since we have been following this solar cycle here on glp
We record all M and X events, as well as all LDE C events
We have had 2 M LDE's

*M1.3 Flare on 10/22/2011 @ 11:10 UTC - sunspot 1314
- LDE lasting 4 1/2hrs (starting 09:18 - ending 13:40)
*M7.1 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 13:20 UTC - sunspot 1302 (LDE EVENT 3+hrs)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks for the edits NiN.
Kindness is in our power, even when fondness is not. --Samuel Johnson
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

User ID: 922574
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01/19/2012 02:00 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Then where is my warning email from space weather.....huffy lol
 Quoting: Blue Skies


Sever fried by sun spot perhaps.

rockon
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9148920

Yes.....thats it. Thats the reason. lol
 Quoting: Blue Skies


Hi Blue Skies....How ya doing dear?

hugs
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 02:00 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.solarham.com]

Sunspot 1402 Eruption: A major eruption starting at 14:30 UTC Thursday took place around Sunspot 1402. This long duration event peaked at M3.2. A large Two-Wave (CME) is seen in the latest images, a portion of which appears to be Earth directed. The major bulk of the plasma cloud appears to be directed north.

Looks like we may just get glanced...still early yet..most opinions are just speculation at this point..
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


i disagree
half will go north, but the other half of the bulk will be directed at us
we can see this my looking at earths proximity to the sun today
You can see on iswa Earths proximity to region 1402 where this CME was produced

1402 is located directly above 1401, and Earth is in direct proximity to 1401

Half of the bulk from this CME is earth directed, the other half is northward directed and will not effect earth
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
:earthproxjan19:
:sunearth:
 Quoting: NiNzrez


don't forget when it hits, in a few days, earth will have also moved in its orbit somewhat away from it. We shall just have to watch. We have been hit more directly than this and all that happens is people feel weird, tempers rise, and we usually but not always get more quakes. This sun is still not anywhere near as active as it should be at this point. Much of that is related to fleet work on it. They caused the long min in the first place.
 Quoting: Nobody in Particular


Um, that is already considered when calculated. Generally speaking an Earth facing region is in the "ZONE" to hit Earth IF a CME was launched.

Nothing Personal, as you ARE Nobody in Particular, but I can't stand your logic. It's almost as if your smart but far too young to understand big boy stuff.
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 02:00 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
do u guys think it is possible that since the filament eruption was first that it may have caused the chain reaction ( magnetic field lines breaking what have you ) into this LDE
TheOracle

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01/19/2012 02:01 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

cygnetstreamer just been update...........

Doom On

bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9148920


Wow, definitely earth directed.
Kindness is in our power, even when fondness is not. --Samuel Johnson
rosie80

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01/19/2012 02:04 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Thanks for the Doom OP .. Much needed :)

Anyone find out if it's earth directed yet?!
.... 22426221213 ....
rosie80

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01/19/2012 02:05 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to spaceweather.com]

Sure is!!
.... 22426221213 ....
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 02:05 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
This doesn't have the most recent CME right?
If so, seems one is expected to deliver a glancing blow around the same time.
Anonymous Coward
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01/19/2012 02:07 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Well lets see,

1- Earth Directed
2- Very long duration
3- Filament collapse
4- Southern Orientation


This COULD be it!!!
rosie80

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01/19/2012 02:08 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
This doesn't have the most recent CME right?
If so, seems one is expected to deliver a glancing blow around the same time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


.. which one? .. I know there was a filament that snapped a while back? .. or was there something more recent ..

If so they can merge or one can clear the way for the other like the carrington event :)
.... 22426221213 ....
Luisport

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01/19/2012 02:09 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
Well lets see,

1- Earth Directed
2- Very long duration
3- Filament collapse
4- Southern Orientation


This COULD be it!!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1405546


ahhh
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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01/19/2012 02:09 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.robertschoch.com]

Yikes. Hope we don't see that kind of solar flare...
rosie80

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01/19/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.robertschoch.com]

Yikes. Hope we don't see that kind of solar flare...
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


That initial pic you just showed .. what is that? .. someone just posted a thread yesterday that there was a bunch of statues uncovered and one of them was that one .. (seen it before, dk what it is...)
.... 22426221213 ....
IndigoGirl

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01/19/2012 02:13 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
From the Watchers


[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Jan 18 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (19 – 21 January).
“I know who I WAS when I got up this morning, but I think I must have been changed several times since then” Alice
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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01/19/2012 02:15 PM

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Re: A Long Duration Solar Flare++ Right now..M3 ..CME detected..earth directed..
[link to www.robertschoch.com]

Yikes. Hope we don't see that kind of solar flare...
 Quoting: AlcoholicRunner


That initial pic you just showed .. what is that? .. someone just posted a thread yesterday that there was a bunch of statues uncovered and one of them was that one .. (seen it before, dk what it is...)
 Quoting: rosie80


That's Easter Island. I saw that thread about those statues as well. Thread: Easter island statue unearthed

Last Edited by AlcoholicAlien on 01/19/2012 02:17 PM

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