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Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast

 
KMartin
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01/22/2012 12:13 PM
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Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Graphic: [link to www.theweatherspace.com]

TWS ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH 001
TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER
TheWeatherSpace.com
1:35 PM EST SUN JAN 22, 2012

THE TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ...

EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS ...
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ...
WESTERN TENNESSEE ...
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ...
WESTERN ALABAMA ...

EFFECTIVE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ...

THIS IS AN ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH, THE STRONGEST OF ALL TWS TORNADO WATCH PRODUCTS ...

LONG TRACKING AND VIOLENT TORNADOES LIKELY ...

DISCUSSION ... TRYING A NEW THING WITH TORNADO WATCHES THAT LAST A VERY LONG TIME AND INFORMATION THAT NEEDS TO BE GIVEN COULD COVER A LARGE AREA, THUS INSTEAD OF WATCH BOXES, PUZZLE PIECE WATCH BOXES ARE BEING TESTED.

A VERY POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT THIS HOUR. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BEST ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE LIFTING WILL BE PRESENT, THUS EXPLOSIVE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE ARE INDICATIONS THAT LIFTING IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER WILL BE WEAK, THUS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN AND THE LINE MAY END THERE. AS A PRECAUTION THOUGH THIS ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH PRODUCT HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THE LOUISIANA BORDER.

THE STORMS WILL FORM IN A HIGH SHEARED / MODERATE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW, MID, UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE AREA, SUPERCELLS ARE A CERTAIN, WITH A 100% CHANCE OF TORNADOES WITH THEM. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS WEAKER IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, THUS QUICK DAMAGING WIND DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THERE, WITH NOT MUCH OF A TORNADO WINDOW TO WORK WITH.

STORMS ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN END WILL PROMOTE THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DUE TO BETTER DIRECTION SHEARING. THESE WILL BE THE STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WESTERN TENNESSEE ZONES. THIS IS YOUR POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACKING AND VIOLENT TORNADOES.

AS THE LINE MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS, WEAKER DYNAMICS WILL END THE VIOLENT TORNADO THREAT, BUT YOU'LL STILL HAVE DAMAGING WINDS AND A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES, A TORNADO WATCH NORTH OF THIS ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH ZONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FOR THE NIGHT HOURS, EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ... THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TWO LINE DEVELOPMENTS, ONE OF THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE, PRODUCING VIOLENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS, THE OTHER ACROSS NORTHERN TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH LIFTING IS NOT AS STRONG AS EASTERN ARKANSAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE, THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS GREATER, PERHAPS THE BEST VALUES OF THE EVENT. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SOUTHERN END EVENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL BE LIKELY AND THIS IS THE REASON THE ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH IS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THESE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES PROMOTE THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED VIOLENT SUPERCELL CHANCE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WELL INTO THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL REGULAR TORNADO WATCH BOXES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE OF THIS: PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI NORTH OF THIS WATCH ... SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ... WESTERN KENTUCKY ... POSSIBLY EXTENDING ALSO TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ...

SO LOOK FOR THOSE ON THE MAIN SITE'S TORNADO WATCH WIDGET LOCATED ON THE UPPER RIGHT OF ALMOST ALL OF THE WEBPAGES, WHICH CAN SCROLL DOWN AS WELL IF MORE THAN ONE TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED ...

THIS WATCH IS IN PLACE TO INFORM SPOTTERS IN THE AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED FOR PRIMARY PREPARATIONS. SOME TORNADOES GO WITHOUT A REPORT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF SPOTTERS ACTIVATED IN A RURAL AREA.


... K. MARTIN

Last Edited by KMartin on 01/22/2012 01:51 PM
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HANGFIRE

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01/22/2012 12:19 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Thanks for the heads up Kevin.
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 12:22 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
So around and about the New Madrid area....? Sorry had to say it.

Thanks for the info.
KMartin (OP)

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01/22/2012 12:25 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
So around and about the New Madrid area....? Sorry had to say it.

Thanks for the info.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1500386


Yes around there, but also am looking at a separate tornado zone in Central MS into Alabama way overnight, this might be deadly and violent.
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Sol1d1nt3l

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01/22/2012 12:29 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
lmao... you sure it's tornadoes and not hurricanes?

Can you update us on the "solar flare" thats hitting right now :P
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 12:29 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
They are out in full force today: [link to chase.tornadovideos.net]

I have actually never seen that many storm chasers on one day...

damned
Paschats Eyes
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01/22/2012 12:30 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Going to start my thread here. We are looking at a severe weather outbreak starting this evening across Eastern Arkansas, then overnight through Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky and Tennessee, and into Mississippi.

There are dynamics in play here that I would like to go over. First of all I'm not to sure about the tornado threat in an outbreak category. There are a couple things missing here which would give this more of a damaging wind threat than tornado at the time.

Tornadoes will be likely with it, given the shear and instability in the area ... but they should embedded supercells within the main damaging wind line.

Most of the lifting is to the north, with non-direction mid/upper level shearing. It leads this as a damaging wind event, very strong ... with embedded tornadoes, some also strong at times.

The target area is Eastern Arkansas, Western Tennessee, Northern Mississippi, Missouri Bootheel, Southern Illinois (Extreme) and Western Kentucky.

The line should be broken in Eastern Arkansas, near the city of Memphis and to the west and southwest of there with better direction shear in the mid/upper levels so this could be the best area of isolated supercell activity that would harbor a stronger tornado.

Very tough event, but it ranks maybe an 8 from any scale of severe weather and tornado combined from a 1-10 scale.

I'll post more as I look more into the area.
 Quoting: KMartin


Worrisome. Thanks for providing the information.

My buddies and I are on earthquake lookout today.

We are having a weekender disaster party and looking for earth troubles for today and then see if it carries into a few days.
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 12:31 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Kevin are these the storms that were over Washington state a few days ago ? ( with the snow & ice )
KMartin (OP)

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01/22/2012 12:33 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Yes these are those storms. The colder air aloft and jet stream dynamics is moving into the plains from the PAC NW
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Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 12:34 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
hiding
Paschat Eyes
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01/22/2012 12:36 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
They are out in full force today: [link to chase.tornadovideos.net]

I have actually never seen that many storm chasers on one day...

damned
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9317060


Many, many signs out today about the SHTF all around the place in various threads during the past week.

This is going to be something like no other.

People are sensing things and like here reporting what they find.

Warnings are appearing in somw peoples visions and dreams of various stuff to take place.
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 12:58 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Im back from my 5 months in the Congo teaching the natives new ways of predicting weather by using the migration patterns of Congoian Fire Weasels.
 Quoting: MelvinKartinWeatherGenius


chuckle
MelvinKartinWeatherGe​nius

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01/22/2012 01:25 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Melvin Kartin Super Weather Genius whos powers were given to him from outer space laser beams and never doubted Kmart the discount Meteorologists ability to read real meterologists websites and repeat them with the grammar ability of a 9th grader with dyslexia.

Yes, there will be servere weather tonight, and a posibility for isolated tornadoes here and there. but I dont really see this as setting up as a major tornado outbreak, just like I have been saying all week way before Kmart started stealing our information
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 01:31 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Im back from my 5 months in the Congo teaching the natives new ways of predicting weather by using the migration patterns of Congoian Fire Weasels. It is I, Melven Kartin, Super Weather Genius, whose weather forecasting powers were given to him by outerspace laser beams!!


Now that I see the fake weatherman is back out here, Im willing to take your questions and give you answers from a real Meteorologist
 Quoting: MelvinKartinWeatherGenius


get a life dude, you know after a while this shit gets old
MelvinKartinWeatherGe​nius

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01/22/2012 01:38 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Being a Super Weather Genius never gets old. Its a gift from outer space laser beams. Its my duty as a super weather genius to share my abilities and expose fraud
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2012 01:43 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Being a Super Weather Genius never gets old. Its a gift from outer space laser beams. Its my duty as a super weather genius to share my abilities and expose fraud
 Quoting: MelvinKartinWeatherGenius


I think a "real Meteorologist" should be paid less than a McDonald's fry cook, your all worthless.

Thanks for the heads up Kevin
KMartin (OP)

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01/22/2012 01:51 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Discussion above.
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HANGFIRE

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01/22/2012 02:19 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
hiding
KMartin (OP)

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01/22/2012 04:42 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Graphic - [link to www.theweatherspace.com]

TWS TORNADO WATCH 004
TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER
TheWeatherSpace.com
3:00 PM EST SUN JAN 22, 2012

THE TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ...

SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI ...
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ...
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA ...
WESTERN KENTUCKY ...
WEST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE ...

EFFECTIVE NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ...

DISCUSSION ... STORMS WILL FIRE IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WITHIN TWS ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH 001 (VIEWED HERE). THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA AND AS THEY DO SO THE VIOLENT TORNADO RISK WILL DIMINISH, THUS THIS IS NOT AN ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH.

HOWEVER, JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT THE HIGHEST VIOLENT RISK TORNADO WATCH HERE AT TWS DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL NOT BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THIS IS WHAT MAKES IT A DANGEROUS EVENT ... A NIGHT EVENT ... WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AND THOSE COULD ALSO BE DANGEROUS.

DO NOT FEEL I NEED TO EXTEND THIS WATCH TO EASTERN TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME AS STORMS WILL WEAKEN BELOW A TORNADO RISK BEFORE REACHING THAT END OF THE STATE.
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KMartin (OP)

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01/22/2012 08:14 PM
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Re: Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast
Will be looking into the areas east and south of both my boxes.
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