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<<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following the MERS approaching PANDEMIC: it is now here>>>

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2013 01:08 PM
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[link to www.cidrap.umn.edu]

it appears co-infection is not rare
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2013 09:52 AM
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[link to www.couriermail.com.au]


off topic arkay but important to note
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03/19/2013 09:55 AM
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off topic arkay but important to note
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36491904

And the fact of closing TB centres is very worrying .
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2013 10:00 AM
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[link to outbreaks.globalincidentmap.com]

arkay take a look at india on this map notice the swine flu and bird flu cases all in one area is it met or does this seem abnormal to you as well?
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03/19/2013 10:04 AM
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[link to www.biomedcentral.com]
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03/19/2013 10:23 AM
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[link to www.nature.com]
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03/19/2013 10:25 AM
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[link to www.nature.com]
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03/19/2013 10:31 AM
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[link to au.news.yahoo.com]
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03/19/2013 10:33 AM
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Australia again ??
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03/19/2013 10:41 AM
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[link to news.xinhuanet.com]
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[link to famagusta-gazette.com]


cyprus
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[link to balita.ph]
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03/19/2013 10:57 AM
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[link to www.tunisia-live.net]
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03/19/2013 02:25 PM
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[link to www.chinadaily.com.cn]
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CCN TV6 &#8207;@tv6tnt 9h
Health care system 'on alert' for H1N1 (Swine Flu) virus since Carnival when new strain was found in US, Chief Medical Officer has confirmed
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03/19/2013 05:01 PM
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[link to www.who.int]
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 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7389697

A number of unanswered questions remain, including the virus reservoir, the means by which seemingly sporadic infections are being acquired, the mode of transmission between infected persons, the clinical spectrum of infection and the incubation period. In 2013 a third cluster of cases now provides clear evidence of limited, non-sustained human-to-human transmission
{ [link to www.hpa.org.uk] yclusterofnovelcoronavirus/}. The mode of transmission has not been determined. One of the cases in the cluster originally tested positive for influenza A and was not initially thought to have infection with nCoV.
One laboratory-confirmed case and one probable case have presented with relatively mild illness with an uneventful recovery; however, most patients have had severe pneumonia. To date, there have been 15 laboratory-confirmed cases of nCoV infection, of which nine have died. Complications of their clinical course have included severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation, multi-organ failure, renal failure requiring dialysis, consumptive coagulopathy and pericarditis. At least two cases had a history of recent travel, which occurred five to ten days before onset of illness. Currently the virus has been found in a limited number of countries, mainly in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region.1 However, given the non-specific clinical presentation of the infection the presence of the virus in other areas cannot be ruled out in the absence of laboratory testing.
arkay (OP)

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03/19/2013 07:11 PM

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Thank you so much...again!...to UK anon, and of course Treyfish for holding the fort over my absence for the last couple of days.

Again an excellent job and one that has kept me quite busy just skimming all the links that have been posted.

Ill try to go through them from the beginning.

From early next week I will be taking an extended break of around three weeks so I hope that things will continue on as they have done without my presence.

I wont be posting or even able to read anything on here for that period as I will be travelling without any phone or even a computer.

Im sure that it will be an experience to be stripped of my electronic life, but also a good chance to do some things that I have never had the opportunity to do before, so I hope you all carry on and that nothing serious happens.

cheers

arkay
arkay (OP)

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03/19/2013 09:14 PM

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the simple facts are pointing to a link between the spread of this coronavirus and the observance of Umrah at Mecca by pilgrims travelling to Saudi Arabia.

dasbierohyeah
 Quoting: arkay


h1n1 is combining with corona virus , perhaps starting notified cases in saudi.
But still quite possible there are/have been other cases that have been misdiagnosed or missed all together , perhaps we need to concerned with this mutation rather than pointing fingers , any large gathering is for sure going to to be closely monitored and if necessary cancelled.

This is, I believe not the first time, the H1N1 virus as been combined was there not a case in egypt a few years back ?
 Quoting: Treyfish


Ok, this I think, is a good place to begin to look at things.

There are several aspects to this post that should be talked about.

I really hope that what I previously posted in relation to the possible link between pilgrims and the coronavirus didnt offend anyone, it wasnt my intent to link the two in any negative manner other than to identify a group that so far had an apparent common denominator and that it might be fortunate that we do have this ground zero anomily at least as a starting point in which to focus on for commonalities that might lead us to where the reservoir for this coronavirus might be.

If anyone has taken offence, please accept my most sincere appologies, as it was never intended to be an offensive observation, rather one with a more positive and even hopeful association that would bring the search for the reservoir to early completion and hopefully elimination.

Ive also not previously mentioned another aspect in relation to this commonality that has crossed my mind before, but as we are close to it now, perhaps its best to bring it into the open now too.

There are many around this planet who would if they could, use something like what we have here as some sort of crude form of bioweapon aimed at a specific group as a part of their hate agendas, and I think that we are acutely aware of the religous nature that many would project their hate towards, no matter how innocent those individuals might be, to vent their disgusting acts of dissaproval towards.

I dont actually believe that this is the case here at this time, but we have previously been witness to similar situations so that the possibility, can sadly never be fully eliminated.

One last comment on the pilgrims as a demographic, and that is that cancellation of most major events that might potentially cause serious world wide health risks is possible up to a point, but I cant ever imagine events like say the Olympics or the annual Hajj ever being cancelled, rather I think that raised health protection stratagies would likely be the order of the day in these exceptional circumstances.

Moving on.

I think that UK anons observations are spot on as far as H1N1 swine flu and H5N1 avian influenza goes and there have been occasional cases of co-infection by these two viruses in people before.

This is a very scary senario especially so as time progresses.

The reason for this is straightforward.

When someone is co-infected by these two viruses then there is the very real opportunity for them to reassort themselves while in the same host and to form a new mutated virus.

Keep in mind that more and more, we are seeing the H1N1 pdm9 swine flu virus in circulation.

Now this H1N1 pdm9 swine flu virus has already mutated, hence its "pdm9" description, which signifies that this specific virus now carries the "M" gene which makes it far more contagous than the original H1N1 swine flu virus.

So, following on with this logic, we find that if a H1N1 pdm9 swine flu virus and an H5N1 avian flu virus co-infected a person, then the resultant mutations could occur.

They are that the H5N1 avian flu virus might obtain the "M" gene from the swine flu virus and virtually instantly become highly contagous to humans.

That would be the worst possible case of reassortment that could emerge from this type of co-infection.

Finally, uk anon mentions the possibility of the novel coronavirus and the H1N1 swine flu virus reassorting as a result of co-infection.

In this area I am completely in the dark.

I dont believe that these two bugs could "share" genes in a co-infected human host as they are two completely different "species" of bugs, which I think would prevent this type of exchange of genetic material.

I believe that reassortment of genes is much more possible when it is between two very siminar types of the same species, if it can be described that way.

To me, its a bit like two monkeys being able to multiply, but an ostrich and a monkey cant because they are completely different species.

At least that is how I interpret this, and I hope Im right because if not the implications would suggest virtually limitless opportunuties for new microbes to evolve to our detriment.
arkay (OP)

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03/19/2013 09:30 PM

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[link to digitaljournal.com]

Arkay do you recall we spoke regarding this on a previous occasion?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36021878


Your memory is extrordinary, but yes, I have a vague recollection, along with an appauling memory!

Having a look at the article, it isnt very specific and Id be pretty inclined to think that again it is referring to the M gene which makes this strain of swine flu far more H2H contagous.

You have posted more a bit later that also has reflections of this M genes impact in as much as one of the articles mentions those who have contracted H3N2 flu which has been fairly evident throughout this flu season and the fact that once recovered from that flu a person appears to also have received some immunity against H1N1 swine flu, depending on point of entry into the body.

So there are still undiscovered factors that as yet leaves gaps in our good understanding of how these viruses work on us.

Another point that later came up was the sheer number of swine flu cases that have emerged in this years Northern Hemisphere flu season, and again this is likely to be the pdm9 strain that has circulated and been why H1N1 has been predominant again.

All speculation, of course.
arkay (OP)

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03/20/2013 05:18 AM

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off topic arkay but important to note
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36491904


Yes, I remember this case very well, when I read of the decision to bring this unfortunate person into Australia I was intensly distressed that our Authorities would willingly import a new and such a deadly bug into a country that till then had not seen this contaigen.

Our politicians are constantly spruking about how vigilant and successful we are at maintaining the worlds best quarrantine practices, and then we withnes this wholesale act of total stupidity.

While I have immense compassion for this unfortunate person, her outcome was never going to very hopeful and given that fact, prudence would have dictated that every conceivable effort to help her and make her as comfortable as humanly possible, but never could importing her contaigen here or to any other unaffected and isolated location could ever be considered as justifiable.

I would love to know which fool actually made that decision because from today forward if any Australian should contract that disease, then the responsibility of those lives rests squarely at that individuals feet.

Life is made up of hard decisions, but making bad ones only exaserbates the outcomes, they never help.

Last Edited by arkay on 03/20/2013 05:21 AM
arkay (OP)

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03/20/2013 04:31 PM

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More commentary on those previous posts to come, but today Ive spotted this concerning article.

This outbreak will be an interresting exercise in observation of containment or spread of this virus.

The community is relatively small and to a large degree isolated and is well serviced with medical professionals.

Unfortunately the article doesent stipulate which strain of H1N1 swine flu is active but aside from that this could lead to a very serious outbreak for Australia if it isnt controlled immediately.

If this is the H1N1 pdm9 strain of swine flu, then most likely it will be highly contagous and could also be resistant to available vaccinations which would have serious consequences for the nation especially at this time as we are on the verge of the commencement of our flu season, meaning that conditions for influenza are beginning to favor transmision.

Having said that, this outbreak is a little unusual as far as weather is concerned as this region will typically still be experiencing days with temps in the mid to high 30 degrees celcius range, but also with high humidity which we recently learnt significantly supports the transmission of viruses.

Lets hope we hear no more about this outbreak.


Kalumburu faces flu outbreak
Posted Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:26pm AEDT

Locals say the Kalumburu health clinic is being kept busy, as local nurses try to contain an outbreak of influenza in one of Western Australia's most remote communities.

The influenza strain A H1N1 has spread from the Northern Territory into Kalumburu, which is home to about 400 people.


Link here...

[link to www.abc.net.au]
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 04:44 PM
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I believe that reassortment of genes is much more possible when it is between two very siminar types of the same species, if it can be described that way.

To me, its a bit like two monkeys being able to multiply, but an ostrich and a monkey cant because they are completely different species.

At least that is how I interpret this, and I hope Im right because if not the implications would suggest virtually limitless opportunuties for new microbes to evolve to our detriment.

I have the feeling, that the comparision may be represented by the horse and donkey rather than monkey and ostrich, coronavirus has been picked up as flu only later to be confirmed as corona virus , leading me to suspect that there may be distinct similarities.
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 04:45 PM
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Life is made up of hard decisions, but making bad ones only exaserbates the outcomes, they never help.
on this we are in total agreement .
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 04:48 PM
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Having said that, this outbreak is a little unusual as far as weather is concerned as this region will typically still be experiencing days with temps in the mid to high 30 degrees celcius range, but also with high humidity which we recently learnt significantly supports the transmission of viruses.

Lets hope we hear no more about this outbreak.

I really hope so Arkay , but suggest keeping an ear to the ground for this one .
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2013 04:53 PM
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I believe that reassortment of genes is much more possible when it is between two very siminar types of the same species, if it can be described that way.

To me, its a bit like two monkeys being able to multiply, but an ostrich and a monkey cant because they are completely different species.

At least that is how I interpret this, and I hope Im right because if not the implications would suggest virtually limitless opportunuties for new microbes to evolve to our detriment.

I have the feeling, that the comparision may be represented by the horse and donkey rather than monkey and ostrich, coronavirus has been picked up as flu only later to be confirmed as corona virus , leading me to suspect that there may be distinct similarities.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36021878

[link to www.hpa.org.uk] yclusterofnovelcoronavirus/}. The mode of transmission has not been determined. One of the cases in the cluster originally tested positive for influenza A and was not initially thought to have infection with nCoV.
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03/20/2013 04:56 PM
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I believe that reassortment of genes is much more possible when it is between two very siminar types of the same species, if it can be described that way.

To me, its a bit like two monkeys being able to multiply, but an ostrich and a monkey cant because they are completely different species.

At least that is how I interpret this, and I hope Im right because if not the implications would suggest virtually limitless opportunuties for new microbes to evolve to our detriment.

I have the feeling, that the comparision may be represented by the horse and donkey rather than monkey and ostrich, coronavirus has been picked up as flu only later to be confirmed as corona virus , leading me to suspect that there may be distinct similarities.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36021878

[link to www.hpa.org.uk] yclusterofnovelcoronavirus/}. The mode of transmission has not been determined. One of the cases in the cluster originally tested positive for influenza A and was not initially thought to have infection with nCoV.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36021878

[link to www.healthunit.com]
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03/20/2013 05:03 PM
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[link to www.recombinomics.com]
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Commentary
WHO On Seemingly Sporadic Beta2c Coronavirus Infections
Recombinomics Commentary 00:30
March 19, 2013

A number of unanswered questions remain, including the virus reservoir, the means by which seemingly sporadic infections are being acquired, the mode of transmission between infected persons, the clinical spectrum of infection and the incubation period.

The above comments initiate the background section of the March 18 revision of the WHO interim nCoV surveillance recommendations, where the word “seemingly” looms large. The epidemiology and sequence data leaves little doubt that the number of nCoV cases is orders of magnitude higher than the 16 confirmed and 11 probable cases, which are clearly not “sporadic”.

All five of the human nCoV sequences are virtually identical to the consensus sequence, which is not closely related to any bat sequence, supporting significant human to human transmission. However, detection of the nCoV in upper respiratory tract samples is a challenge, so clusters of mild cases linked to confirmed cases are small because the milder cases are not confirmed and the sustained transmission is not detected.

However, the WHO's use of the phrase “seemingly sporadic” is in preparation for the acknowledgement of sustained transmission prior to the declaration of an nCoV SARS-like pandemic.
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03/20/2013 05:09 PM
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[link to www.virology-bonn.de]

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