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<<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>

 
Anonymous Coward
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02/17/2013 05:39 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
Beta Coronavirus H2H Transmission In Riyadh Cluster
Recombinomics Commentary 12:30
February 15, 2013

Case No. Date of Onset Age (years) Sex Probable place of infection Date reported Outcome Part of a cluster?
1 April 2012 45 F Jordan 30/11/12 Dead yes - hospital A
2 April 2012 25 M Jordan 30/11/12 Dead yes - hospital A
3 13/06/12 60 M KSA 20/09/12 Dead no
4 03/09/12 49 M Qatar/ KSA 23/09/12 Alive/Hosp no
5 10/10/2012 45 M KSA 04/11/12 Alive no
6 12/10/12 45 M Qatar 23/11/12 Alive no
7 3-5/11/2012 31 M KSA 20/11/12 Alive yes - family A
8 28/10/12 39 M KSA 23/11/12 Dead yes - family A
9 October 2012 not known M KSA 28/11/12 Dead yes - family A
10 24 /1/2013 60 M Pakistan/KSA 8/1/13 Alive/Hosp yes - family B
11 6/2/2013 not known M UK 12/02/13 Alive/Hosp yes - family B

As seen above, the ECDC has updated its table of confirmed beta coronavirus cases, which includes additional information on the ages of the cases as well as disease onset dates, which provide compelling data for the human to human transmission in the Riyadh cluster (cases 7-9 designated as “family A”, but in reverse chronological order).

A cluster of cases linked to a rare disease can be due to human to human (H2H) transmission within the cluster or infection by a common source. When the source is unknown, the best data for distinguishing between the two scenarios is the disease onset dates, which are still lacking for many of the cases, but the dates of death, when coupled with the known disease onset dates can be used to distinguish between a common source and human to human transmission.

The new data for the cluster on Riyadh, when combined with reliable media reports, paint a relatively clear transmission scenario for family A, which included 3 confirmed cases and 1 probable case. Media reports had indicated that the index case (70M) was the father of the second fatal case (39M), which are cases 9 and 8, respectively, in the above list. Although the disease onset date for the father is listed as October, and the son is listed as October 28, media reports indicated that father died 4 days prior to the son, supporting infection of the son by his father.

However, the most compelling data for H2H transmission in family A is the disease onset date for the surviving family member (31M, case 7, and likely another son) which is listed as between November 3-5. The disease onset time gap between the two brothers (39M and 31M) provides strong support for H2H transmission, which is further supported by the earlier date of death for the father. The fourth family member is designated as “probable” by WHO, suggesting a false negative on testing. Similar testing issues surfaced for the father, who was also initially classified as a probable case, but was subsequently confirmed.

Although the updated table includes disease onset dates which strongly support H2H transmission in family A, no disease onset is listed for the two fatal cases in Jordan (other than the month of April). These two cases were part of a larger cluster of a dozen cases linked to an ICU. The size and severity of the cluster created considerable concern. Two health care workers died (nurse, 45F and intern, 25M) while all but one of the reported symptomatic contacts were hospitalized, which included the son of the index case. The cases were described as SARS-like and samples were initially sent to labs in France and Egypt for identification of the etiology agent, signaling significant concerns.

Subsequent re-testing in Egypt (by NAMRU-3), using probes targeting the novel beta 2c coronavirus, confirmed the two fatal cases, Failure to confirm the virus in the other hospitalized cases led to a “probable” designation by WHO. The dates of death for the two confirmed cases were 1 week apart, further supporting H2H transmission within the ICU. WHO has not cited the number of probable cases in Jordan, or given disease onset dates, but like family A in the above list, it is likely that the disease onset dates for the two confirmed cases and the dozen probable cases will have significant time gaps. signaling H2H transmission.

Similarly, the third listed cluster (family B) has significant time gaps in disease onset date, and symptoms developed in two different counties (Saudi Arabia and England) further signaling H2H transmission.

These clusters, with significant gaps in disease onset dates, seriously challenge the ECDC risk assessment analysis, which ignores the probable cases and suggests that the absence of confirmed mild cases supports an animal or environmental origin.
Anonymous Coward
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02/17/2013 05:41 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
this is much more serious than people are being informed perhaps to prevent panic who knows . personally the more information people have the better choices will make , stay safe
Anonymous Coward
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02/17/2013 05:58 PM
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SARS CoV outbreak in 2003.

the 09 cluster is the egypt connection has this combines with 2003 china sara ???
Anonymous Coward
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02/17/2013 06:00 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to jordantimes.com]
things seem tone falling into place now
Anonymous Coward
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02/17/2013 07:08 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to wwwnc.cdc.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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02/17/2013 07:16 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
PRO/FRA> Grippe porcine, humaine, alerte &#150; Maroc
PRO / EDR> Influenza swine, human, alert Morocco
6 Feb -
Swine Flu H1N1, Morocco, Humans
Swine Flu H1N1, Tizi Ouzou, Algeria, Humans (confirmed cases: 1, confirmed deaths: 1)
Source: Libération Maroc [édité]


Le virus AH1N1 frappe à nos portes. La
grippe aviaire a tué en Algérie. Louardi se veut
rassurant.
-------------------------------------------------------------​--------
Le virus AH1N1 refait son apparition chez nos
voisins algériens. Il vient de frapper dans la
région de Tizi Ouzou, selon la presse locale. Une
femme enceinte est décédée après avoir été
atteinte par le virus de ...
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 11:21 AM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to afludiary.blogspot.co.uk]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 11:37 AM
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[link to www.sbs.com.au]
worth watching to see if anything else comes from these bats
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 11:39 AM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to www.ctvnews.ca]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 11:46 AM
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[link to www.irinnews.org]

increase in deaths swine flu gaza palstine
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02/18/2013 11:49 AM
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[link to swineflumagazine.blogspot.co.uk]
another jordan question ???
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 11:56 AM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to focustaiwan.tw]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 12:04 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to daily.bhaskar.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 12:11 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to www.pantagraph.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 01:33 PM
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[link to www.scmp.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 01:37 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to edition.cnn.com]
usa aleirus rt new corona v
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 01:38 PM
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[link to edition.cnn.com]
usa alert new corona virus
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 02:01 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to www.yementimes.com]
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02/18/2013 02:03 PM
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[link to www.indianexpress.com]
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02/18/2013 02:05 PM
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[link to news.xinhuanet.com]
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02/18/2013 02:13 PM
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[link to www.radiodabanga.org]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 02:21 PM
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[link to translate.google.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/18/2013 02:26 PM
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[link to www.dnaindia.com]
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02/18/2013 06:50 PM
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[link to wwwnc.cdc.gov]


bat vectoring
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02/19/2013 12:19 PM
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[link to www.webmd.com]
emerging virus well suited to attack humans
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02/21/2013 04:39 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
[link to www.cp24.com]

another case of the novel corona virus in saudi atria
Anonymous Coward
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02/21/2013 11:35 PM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
I just noticed Trefish's blog has been removed. Anyone know why? I followed his blog for months. Good stuff he would post. Kind of concerned. Did he take it down himself or is this just another case where he was getting to close to the truth and it was deleted, terminated, banned, etc.

tissue
arkay (OP)

User ID: 944501
Australia
02/22/2013 01:32 AM

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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
I just noticed Trefish's blog has been removed. Anyone know why? I followed his blog for months. Good stuff he would post. Kind of concerned. Did he take it down himself or is this just another case where he was getting to close to the truth and it was deleted, terminated, banned, etc.

tissue
 Quoting: SnakesAndLadders


Youre right.

It has been removed.

I will attempt to contact him and endevour to find out what is going on.

Please dont make assumptions , just hang in there till we have some good information.

What I learn I will post here.

cheers

arkay
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02/22/2013 10:11 AM
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[link to 7thspace.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2013 10:14 AM
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Re: <<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>
I just noticed Trefish's blog has been removed. Anyone know why? I followed his blog for months. Good stuff he would post. Kind of concerned. Did he take it down himself or is this just another case where he was getting to close to the truth and it was deleted, terminated, banned, etc.

tissue
 Quoting: SnakesAndLadders


Youre right.

It has been removed.

I will attempt to contact him and endevour to find out what is going on.

Please dont make assumptions , just hang in there till we have some good information.

What I learn I will post here.

cheers

arkay
 Quoting: arkay


welcome back arkay hope your well, spoke to treyfish yesterday hes going to be in contact with you shortly search sars thread here glp some interesting things are surfacing arkay speak to you again soon hfhf

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