<<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>

Egypt has reported another H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in a small flock of poultry.

GENERAL INFO
Disease Event ID Reporting date Observation date
173879 05/12/2012 04/12/2012

LOCATION
Region Admin 1 (Country) Locality Lat/Long Quality of Coordinates
Africa Al Minufiyah (menoufia) (Egypt) Om Kinan 30.506/31.103 Centroid Locality

DISEASE
Status DISEASE Serotype Source
Confirmed Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 National authorities
OverlaysDisease Event
Admin 1 Level (GAUL)
Global Poultry Density
Production Systems
World Rivers
Base LayerCountries/Territories (GAUL)



SPECIES AFFECTED
An.Type An.Class Species At Risk Cases Deaths Destroyed Slaughtered
Domestic Birds chicken 20 20

LABORATORIES
Disease Tested Species Test Result Result Date Reference Laboratory
Highly pathogenic avian influenza chicken RRT-PCR (real-time reverse transcriptase PCR) Positive 05/12/2012

Link here...

[link to empres-i.fao.org]

Its rare to hear any noteworthy news of the flu coming out of Britain, but this report caught my attention mainly because of the huge percentage numbers of infected kids from this school.

It would be helpful to know what lab results will reveal is the cause of this outbreak.

More than 100 off sick as flu bug sweeps through Wimbledon Chase Primary School

10:30am Wednesday 12th December 2012 in Wimbledon By Lauren May, Reporter

More than 100 off sick as flu bug sweeps through primary school A sweeping case of flu has caused more than 100 children to stay off sick from a single primary school.

Wimbledon Chase Primary School in Merton Hall Road saw an unprecedented number of pupils struck down with a "flu-type" virus on Tuesday with 140 out of the school's 639 pupils off sick with a bug.

Link here...

[link to www.surreycomet.co.uk]

It has been a fortunate period that there have been no reports of human fatalities from H5N1 for quite some time.

Unfortunately that has come to a sad end with this report of the passing of a 4 year old boy in Indonesia from a H5N1 avian flu infection.

The Ministry of Health, the Directorate General of Disease Control, and the Environmental Health [Service] announced that a new case of H5N1 [avian influenza] has been confirmed by the Center for Basic Biomedical and Health Technologies, Balitbangkes.

The case is a 4-year-old male, a resident of Kampung Nagreg, Gorowong Village, District Parung Panjang, Bogor regency, West Java. The child exhibited symptoms of fever on 20 Nov 2012, and on 1 Dec 2012 the case was moved to Pustu. On 4 Dec 2012 there was no change in the condition of the case when seen by a private doctor. On the morning of 5 Dec 2012 the case went to a health centre and in the afternoon was referred to the Private RSIA for hospitalization. On 6 Dec 2012 the case was referred to the Tangerang District Hospital because of onset of fever, cough, and shortness of breath. The condition of the patient worsened and the child eventually died at 23:40hr.

Epidemiological investigations have been conducted by the hospital and the other agencies involved including a possible risk factor of direct contact with poultry carcasses, including possible exposure to entog (ducks) in the neighborhood.

With inclusion of this case, the cumulative number of bird flu cases in Indonesia since 2005 until this new report is 192 cases with 160 deaths. Director General of Disease Control and Environmental Health, Prof. Dr.Tjandra Yoga Aditama as the focal point of the International Health Regulations (IHR), has reported the case to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

This information is released by Center for Public Communication, Secretariat General of the Ministry of Health.

Link here...

[link to www.promedmail.org]

The issue of vaccinations is always closely associated with influenza discussions.

Many people have strong beliefs and predispositions towards having vaccinations as a preventative treatment.

This study looked at using alternative measures such as social distancing, mask wearing and frequent hand washing as measures that could be of use.

Their findings did conclude that these measures were in fact viable alternative measures, but did not go so far as to quantify just how effective they might be.

Selecting Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Influenza.
Jones RM, Adida E.
SourceSchool of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA. School of Business Administration, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA.

Abstract
Models of influenza transmission have focused on the ability of vaccination, antiviral therapy, and social distancing strategies to mitigate epidemics. Influenza transmission, however, may also be interrupted by hygiene interventions such as frequent hand washing and wearing masks or respirators. We apply a model of influenza disease transmission that incorporates hygiene and social distancing interventions. The model describes population mixing as a Poisson process, and the probability of infection upon contact between an infectious and susceptible person is parameterized by p. While social distancing interventions modify contact rates in the population, hygiene interventions modify p. Public health decision making involves tradeoffs, and we introduce an objective function that considers the direct costs of interventions and new infections to determine the optimum intervention type (social distancing versus hygiene intervention) and population compliance for epidemic mitigation. Significant simplifications have been made in these models. However, we demonstrate that the method is feasible, provides plausible results, and is sensitive to the selection of model parameters. Specifically, we show that the optimum combination of nonpharmaceutical interventions depends upon the probability of infection, intervention compliance, and duration of infectiousness. Means by which realism can be increased in the method are discussed.

© 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Link here...

[link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

The CDC has announced that a second case of H3N2V has been reported in Minnesota.

This case did have contact with swine prior to infection, which was the probable cause.

Fortunately the person has made a full recovery.

Novel Influenza A Virus:One infection with an influenza A (H3N2) variant virus (H3N2v) was reported to CDC during week 49 by Minnesota. Close contact between the case patient and swine in the week preceding illness was reported. The patient has fully recovered and no further cases have been identified in contacts of the case patient. This is the second H3N2v infection reported for the 2012-13 influenza season, which began on September 30, 2012.

A total of 312 infections with variant influenza viruses (308 H3N2v viruses, 3 H1N2v viruses, and 1 H1N1v virus) have been reported from 11 states since July 2012. More information about H3N2v infections can be found at [link to www.cdc.gov]

Link here...

[link to www.cdc.gov]

While I dont wish to sound cynical it seems to be pretty convenient that the WHO is all of a sudden becoming far more pro-active towards its role in flu surveylance.

Not only, but also in conjunction with the subtle mentions and reminders to the responsibilities of "member states" to report their cases to the WHO.

One cant help wondering if the recent iniative by the expert researchers that have formed their own research group in parallel with the WHO hasnt stimulated the WHO into this new action.

They certainly were dragging the chain, and their continuing conflict of interests with their averall charter and the views expressed by their ruling body the UN, regarding its beliefs that the world needs a rapid de-population, continue to be excellent and appropriate motivation for the existance of this new group even if it serves to make the WHO far more active and open to public transparency and scrutiny.

Certainly there has been ample avidence in recent times that has indicated that the WHO had been far from open in that regard.

Here we now see the WHO upgrade their reporting of H5N1 to a monthly cycle.

One might even be forgiven for thinking that someone with a bit of clout within the walls of the WHO might have been reading some of the critisims levelled in these postings and has been motivated to start kicking a few backsides to instigate all these new initiatives!

Of particular interest in this report, is that the latter part of it deals specifically with the matter of H3N2v which has been the second subject and topic of some sharp critisizm leveled at the CDC , whom the WHO works closely with.

From this authors point of view, the coincidence is too close to be ignored.

And if we, through this thread have been responsible for some positive responses to correctly aimed critisizms of issues that needed to be addressed, well I suggest that all our readers and contributors are well due for some personal congratulating on a job deserving of such accolades.

This world is now a safer place for us all.

I thank you.

arkay

Here is the WHO's first monthly report.

Influenza at the human-animal interface
Summary and assessment as of 5 November2012
Human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus and associated animal health events
From 2003 through 5 November 2012, 608 laboratory-confirmed human cases with avian influenza
A(H5N1) virus infection have been officially reported to WHO from 15 countries, of which 359 died.
Since January 2012, 30 human cases of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection have been reported to WHO.
Since the last update (1 October 2012), no new laboratory-confirmed human cases with influenza
A(H5N1)virus infection were reported to WHO. The last human case with confirmed H5N1 infection
reported had onset date on 24 July 2012.
An increase in the number of H5N1 poultry outbreaks would be expected to occur over the coming
months, with the arrival of winter, and there are indications that the normal seasonal increase in
outbreaks in poultry is beginning. Human infections can be expected any time the virus is circulating in
poultry.

Here is the second half of the report that specifically addresses H3N2v.

Unfortunately we still have no explaination for how Patient Zero managed to contract this first case of this viral flu strain in a hospital, but hopefully one day that news will emerge.

I doubt it though, as its pretty clear that this first case of H3N2v was deliberately administered it by person/s unknown, but deliberate, it had to be.

A(H3N2) variant virus infection
The United States of America (USA) reported no additional human cases of influenza A(H3N2)v, and no
additional deaths, even after schools resumed in the autumn 2012. The large majority of cases have
been associated with swine exposure, though instances of likely human-to-human transmission have
been identified. No sustained human-to-human transmission of this virus has been reported.
Limited serological studies1,2,3,4 indicate that adults may have some pre-existing immunity to this virus
but children do not. Seasonal vaccines do not provide cross protection against A (H3N2)v infection. WHO
has identified several candidate vaccine viruses specific for A(H3N2)v that could be used to produce an
(H3N2)v vaccine if needed.

Link here...

[link to www.who.int]

Here we have a Press Release from the Ministry of Health in Indonesia that relates to the recent death of a 4 year old boy from H5N1 avian influenza.

This has been previously reported, but why I have posted this Press Release is because I wanted to draw readers attention to other statistics that are mentioned in it.

We dont often get a lot of reliable information out of Indonesia, but one thing has been quite clear from what little we do find.

And, that is the extremely high number of cases of H5N1 avian influenza that they have reported in comparison to the rest of the world, and even more concerning are the extremely high percentages of deaths resuting from these infections in people.

The fatality percentages for Indonesia are well above the already terrifying percentages elsewhere.

Statistically out of the 192 cases resulting with 160 fatalities, this figure runs against the already terrifying 60% fatality rate to such an extent that from those 192 cases, the number of deaths resulting should not have exceeded more than 115 fatalities, so there is very clear evidence that this is a seriously bad hot spot for H5N1.

All this leads me to a place where I cant help thinking that when H5N1 avian influenza does complete the mutations it needs to become H2H transmissible, in all probability, that will happen in this region.

The numbers cannot be ignored, and with new news also identifying a new clade appearing there, where it had not previously been detected, the evidence is strong that this is the region that needs a far higher level of support than it currently is getting, if we ever want to have a hope of containing this horrifying virus.

Report of 192 Cases of Bird Flu
December 14, 2012 | 3:56 pm.
Ministry of Health, Directorate General of Disease Control and Environmental Health announced a new case of H5N1 has been confirmed by the Center for Basic Biomedical and Health Technologies, Balitbangkes.

Case on behalf of the IT (male, 4 years old) residents of Kampung Nagreg, Gorowong Village, District Parung Panjang, Bogor regency, West Java. Dated 30 November 2012 symptoms of fever, December 1, 2012 the case went to Pustu. Dated December 4, 2012 because there was no change in the case of seeing a private doctor, dated December 5, 2012 morning the case went to the health center and in the afternoon the case was referred to the Private RSIA for hospitalization. Dated December 6, 2012 the case was referred to the Tangerang District Hospital because of fever, cough, and shortness. The situation gets worse case and the case eventually died at 23:40 pm.

Epidemiological investigations have been conducted into the hospital, and the case surrounding the Integrated Team MoH and local health service, possible risk factors that come in direct contact with poultry carcasses (entog) in the neighborhood.

With the increase of these cases, the cumulative number of bird flu in Indonesia since 2005 until this news broadcast is 192 cases with 160 deaths.

Director General of Disease Control and Environmental Health, Prof. dr. Tjandra Yoga Aditama as the focal point of the International Health Regulations (IHR) has been informed about the case to the WHO.

This information is released by Center for Public Communication, Secretariat General of the Ministry of Health. For further information, please contact via telephone: (021) 52907416-9, Fax: (021) 52921669, Rapid Response Response Centre (PTRC): <kode lokal> 500-567 and 081 281 562 620 (sms), or e-mail contacts @ depkes.go.id

Link here...

[link to sehatnegeriku.com]

(Google translated).

Back to new updated information on the novel coronavirus that was found in Saudi Arabia earlier this year and where it is now known that the April deaths in a hospital in Jordan were from the same cause.

This article reveals how deadly this coronavirus is now known to be from the relatively small sample we now have confirmed.

Lets hope that this number never changes.

Of some consolation, I cant help thinking that we may have just dodged the bullet on this one at least for this year.

With no news emerging of any of the Hajj visitors being diagnosed with this coronavirus as yet, and by now the incubation period should have passed.

Miracles do happen.

The New Coronavirus: More Cases, More Deaths, Unclear Transmission
By Maryn McKenna12.13.128:30 AM
Categories: Science Blogs, Superbug

There’s lots of news to catch up with regarding the new coronavirus that emerged last summer in the Middle East and has been causing concern to international health authorities all autumn: additional cases, additional deaths, and new lab evidence that is more than a little concerning.

First: The case count has now risen from six to nine. One of those cases, we knew about already; it is the remaining person in the Saudi family cluster announced last month, whose case analysis was pending. But the other two are newly uncovered, and interesting: They are from a group of 11 health care workers and patients who fell ill in Jordan back in April. A correspondent to the mailing list ProMED actually raised a question about this cluster when the first known cases were disclosed. At the time, the cases were ruled to be not caused by coronavirus — but as the new virus had not yet been recognized, the test used was for known coronaviruses. The victims were negative on that test, but positive when a retest on their stored samples, using the new assay, was done recently.

Sadly, all three of these new cases died — so not only has the case count risen, but the fatality count has also, to 5 out of 9. Though we have only a few cases, that is still a case-fatality rate of more than 50 percent. By contrast, the case-fatality rate of SARS, the last novel coronavirus to trouble public health, was less than 10 percent.

Link here...

[link to www.wired.com]

Recently we heard news of a massive die off in dirds in Russia.

With on again, off again, news emerging and conflicting it was difficult to find a reliable source that identified this flu strain.

Firstly it was reported to be H5N1, then it was H5 but not N1!

Now we have this news article that appears to be positive about the strain actually being H5N1, and again this outbreak is quite significant.

This region of Russia is a region where wild birds migrate from and can be found migrating to all regions of the planet, or at least to regions where they can spread this virus to other migrating birds that will carry it to those other regions.

Bird flu detected in southern Russia

Avian influenza of the dangerous H5N1 strain has been detected in a population of wild birds in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Krai region. According to preliminary data in the region, at least 4,000 wild birds have been found dead.

Link here..


[link to www.globalmeatnews.com]

Just the other day readers will remember that the subject of compensation to poultry producers affected by essential culling of flocks when H5N1 was detected, was a key factor in limiting bad practices and promoting safer outcomes for the world as a whole when it came to the threat that H5N1 presents to us all.

Well its timely that after their recent outbreaks of H5N1 in Nepal, the authorities and stakeholders there have moved quickly to set up appropriate compensation funds for their poultry farmers.

This is excellent news and we can only hope that Governments, NGO's and all stakeholders all around the world follow this wonderful and encouraging lead being set by the Nepalese people.

They really do need to be congratulated for this work.

Bird Flu Relief Fund to mitigate risk of poultry farmers

Will also help govt policy to triple per-capita consumption of chicken and eggs
Added At: 2012-12-09 9:51 PM
Last Updated At: 2012-12-09 9:51 PM

The Himalayan Times

Chairman of Nimbus Holdings Jagdish Prasad Agrawal announcing the launch of the Bird Flu Relief Fund, in Kathmandu, on Sunday.

HIMALAYAN NEWS SERVICE

KATHMANDU: Nimbus Holdings has formed a Bird Flu Relief Fund to mitigate not only the risk of poultry farmers by compensating them but also to mitigate the risk on public health, apart from helping government policy to triple per-capita consumption and availability of chicken and eggs in the next 15 years by encouraging commercialisation of poultry sector.

Link here...

[link to thehimalayantimes.com]

A new study has concluded that the new coronavirus is very closely related to a betacoronavirus found in bats.

New SARS virus linked to bats
Posted: 20 November 2012 1652 hrs

PARIS : A novel strain of the deadly SARS virus that sparked a health scare this year is closely related to a virus found in Asian bats, according to a study published on Tuesday.

Break...

"Therefore we speculate that it comes from an animal source," he said, noting that Pipistrellus bats are present in Saudi Arabia and neighbouring countries.

Link here...

[link to www.channelnewsasia.com]

This next article might be a bit of a case of telling us what we already know.

Its a little old but still quite relevant to us here.

Researchers Explore Social Media as Preventative Method for Infectious Diseases
Nov. 27, 2012 — When it comes to stopping illness, social media posts and tweets may be just what the doctor ordered.

A Kansas State University-led research team is looking at social media as a tool to reduce and prevent diseases from spreading. Researchers are studying whether a well-timed post from a public authority or trustworthy person could be as beneficial as flu shots, hand-washing or sneezing into an elbow.

Link here...

[link to www.sciencedaily.com]

Regular readers will be abundantly aware of my crusade on the topic of H3N2v which emerged earlier this year and was generally associated with county fair swine displays in the US.

At this juncture I would like to draw attention to the following comprehensive study conducted by Dr. Karen Wong and her associates from the CDC on the topic of H3N2v.

This study is an extensive work of dilligence and Dr. Wong and her team deserve to be congratulated for their efforts and the extensive time that has been dedicated to this project.

The report identifies and names their first case, the Index Case for their studies.

This case, Patient Zero if you like, is identified as having previously been a healthy girl who did have direct contact with swine at a fair.

For the purposes of this study I can accept all the findings that have been presented.

Unfortunately another Patient Zero had already been identified as the "Index Case", which leaves the question of the true origin of H3N2v open.

This study makes no reference to the genuine Patient Zero, and consequently that question also remains unanswered in spite of all this dilligent work.

It would be helpful for further investigation of records at the hospital where the original Patient Zero was identified with the first known case of this novel virus, and have this inconsistancy cleared up once and for all.

Outbreak of Influenza A (H3N2) Variant Virus Infection among Attendees of an Agricultural Fair, Pennsylvania, USA, 2011
Article Contents
MethodsResultsDiscussionAcknowledgmentsReferencesFigureTable 1Table 2Table 3Table 4Suggested CitationKaren K. Wong , Adena Greenbaum, Maria E. Moll, James Lando, Erin L. Moore, Rahul Ganatra, Matthew Biggerstaff, Eugene Lam, Erica E. Smith, Aaron D. Storms, Jeffrey R. Miller, Virginia Dato, Kumar Nalluswami, Atmaram Nambiar, Sharon A. Silvestri, James R. Lute, Stephen Ostroff, Kathy Hancock, Alicia Branch, Susan C. Trock, Alexander Klimov, Bo Shu, Lynnette Brammer, Scott Epperson, Lyn Finelli, and Michael A. Jhung
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (K.K. Wong, A. Greenbaum, R. Ganatra, M. Biggerstaff, E. Lam, A.D. Storms, J.R. Miller, K. Hancock, A. Branch, S.C. Trock, A. Klimov, B. Shu, L. Brammer, S. Epperson, L. Finelli, M.A. Jhung); Pennsylvania Department of Health, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, USA (M.E. Moll, E.E. Smith, J.R. Miller, V. Dato, K. Nalluswami, A. Nambiar, J.R. Lute, S. Ostroff); Allegheny County Health Department, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (J. Lando, S.A. Silvestri); and Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture, Harrisburg (E.L. Moore)
Suggested citation for this article

Abstract
During August 2011, influenza A (H3N2) variant [A(H3N2)v] virus infection developed in a child who attended an agricultural fair in Pennsylvania, USA; the virus resulted from reassortment of a swine influenza virus with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We interviewed fair attendees and conducted a retrospective cohort study among members of an agricultural club who attended the fair. Probable and confirmed cases of A(H3N2)v virus infection were defined by serology and genomic sequencing results, respectively. We identified 82 suspected, 4 probable, and 3 confirmed case-patients who attended the fair. Among 127 cohort study members, the risk for suspected case status increased as swine exposure increased from none (4%; referent) to visiting swine exhibits (8%; relative risk 2.1; 95% CI 0.2–53.4) to touching swine (16%; relative risk 4.4; 95% CI 0.8–116.3). Fairs may be venues for zoonotic transmission of viruses with epidemic potential; thus, health officials should investigate respiratory illness outbreaks associated with agricultural events.

Link here...

[link to wwwnc.cdc.gov]

H1N1 swine flu has been diagnosed in a new case in North India with more cases suspected.

Swine flu threat looms over city: six cases this year
Himabindu Reddy, Hindustan Times
Gurgaon, December 17, 2012

First Published: 00:59 IST(17/12/2012)
Last Updated: 01:00 IST(17/12/2012)Share Share on

A fresh case of swine flu has been reported in the city, taking the total number of cases to six this year. It was last reported nearly a month ago, when three persons fell sick. According to the health department, a 52-year-old man was tested positive for the deadly virus on December 13. The patient is a resident of DLF phase-4.

"The case has been reported from Medanta - The Medicity," said an official at the department. The number of suspected cases has been put at two.

Link here...

[link to www.hindustantimes.com]

thanks for posting, good to know i'm not the only one watching h5n1

Two days ago, we reported (above) of a fatal case of H5N1 avian influenza in a toddler in Indonesia.

Now we have another report of an earlier death from H5N1 that was not appropriately reported also from Indonesia.

Unfortuantey for the rest of the world, Indonesia has a culture similar to most other governments around the world where those in authority will withold information believing that their actions are in the best interests of the people they represent.

Regrettably a lot of the time these authorities dont have sufficient personal knowledge or informed advisors to make good value judgements, which ultimately results in preventative actions coming into play far too late to do any good.

Witholding information based on egotistically driven poor judgement will probably be the real cause for a world wide pandemic of H5N1, and its probable that it will originate from Indonesia because of these ingrained, uninformed poor judgement decisions from their irresponsible administrators.

Two Person Dies of Bird Flu in Jogja
-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------

Agus Sigit | Sunday, December 16, 2012 | 19:00 PM

Cases of bird flu (H5N1) in the DIY in the past four months, has left two people dead. Both are derived from the Sleman district where one person tested positive for the H5N1 and the other one is a suspect H5N1.

Head of Disease Control and Health Issues (P2MK) DIY Health Department, Daryanto Chadorie revealed one positive case of H5N1 occurred about four months ago in the area of Prambanan, Sleman. The patient was a man aged about 39 years and died in hospital. Bethesda.

"The other one is still suspect H5N1 case, in which a toddler. Blood sample also was sent to health laboratories in Jakarta last week. Yet until now there has been no result," he said, Sunday (16/12)

Link here...

[link to krjogja.com]

(google translated)

On the topic of H5N1 avian influenza and Indonesia, regular readers will be familiar with the postings here from Treyfish.

Treyfish runs his own blog site, linked below, and a good look at his site today is causing me some very serious concern.

While we now have news of two recent fatalities from H5N1 avian influenza in Indonesia.

One of which seems to have been kept quiet.

We have recently also heard of how a new clade of the virus has recently shown up there, and also received scattered reports of various large numbers of bird deaths occurring there too.

It is now looking a lot like Indonesia has a very serious problem with extensive outbreaks of H5N1 in numerous regions, often involving large commercial duck and poultry farms.

Whilst I dont wish to be ringing alarm bells, the slow response by authorities to acknowledge the extent and seriousness of these outbreaks and their downplaying of that seriousnes might now see this spread of H5N1 completely out of control, and if not already out of control then very close to it.

Should that be the case then we might be on the verge of a serious threat of even wider and more rapid spread of H5N1 to many other regions.

I suggest readers follow this link to Treyfish's site and read the various stories about these outbreaks, as I said, to me this looks serious.

[link to swineflumagazine.blogspot.com.au]

Hi...333...

its good to see that this work is being followed, so let me welcome you here and offer you an invitation to post any relevant information that you might find on the topic too.

As you clearly know this is potentially a serious threat to humanity, so the more information that we can amass here the better.

cheers

arkay

Just 2 days ago I posted the above news for Nepal.

Today we have news from there where Authorities have suspended 6 officials who illegally imported banned chicken from India.

Its noteworthy that this ban has been in force for several years, so any attempt to claim ignorance of the fact would be futile.

The ban is 6 years old and 5 tonnes for illegal chicken, and a selection of quarantine officials to ensure that the consignment passes through, it just doesent leave much to the imagination, now does it!

More likely there was dirty money involved somewhere.

One cant help wonder at what involvement local KFC might also have had in this.

Lets face it, that consignment had to be paid for by someone and Id suspect that there arent too many people or businesses in that part of the world that would have access to those cash reserves, or for that matter the capacity to use that much chicken meat over a relatively short timeframe.

We can only hope that KFC Franchise Liscencing are also doing their own investigation into this unbelievably dangerous incident.

One must appreciate that Kathmandu is a major centre for westerners to visit because of its proximity to Mount Everest, among other attractions.

And westerners will usually try to source western styles of food as belly bugs are common in these regions and medical services are minimal.

So to potentially expose so many international travellers to possible H5N1 avian influenza infection has massive ramifications in terms of spreading this disease should infected food be offered to any of these travellers.

Honestly the contempt that some public servants can be capable of is almost unbelievable.

All that and then on the one hand, we have news of excellent works being done to help with managing avian influenza, while at the very same time we see none other than quarantine officials, who do know better, destroying all those good works for personal gain.

We can only hope that they receive appropriate punishment that reflectes the true seriousness of their greedy and self serving actions.

Something like life in jail sounds to be approching justice here.

Nepal suspends 6 officials for KFC chicken import from India

Press Trust of India : Kathmandu, Mon Dec 17 2012, 18:45 hrs

Nepal has suspended six quarantine officials, including two under-secretaries, on the charge of allowing a promoter of KFC here for illegally importing chicken from India despite restrictions.

The Ministry of Agriculture Development has taken action against staffers working in the Birgunj quarantine post for their negligence in allowing Devyani International Nepal, a promoter of Kentucky Fried Chicken to import chicken from India as it is banned under the bird flu surveillance list of World Organisation for Animal Health.

Link here...

[link to www.indianexpress.com]

Last Edited by arkay on 12/17/2012 07:41 PM

This next article appears to be reflecting the response to the increasing spread of H5N1 in Indonesia.

However, reading all the article, it certainly appears to be downplaying the severity and extent of the problem, even failing to note that there have been recent deaths.

Rather citing the fact that no deaths have resulted for the new clade.

Quote...

"No humans had been infected by the latest strain detected on Java, said the Health Ministry's director for disease control, Tjandra Yoga Aditama".

Im sorry, but Mr or Ms Tjandra Yoga Aditama, there have been 2 recent deaths from H5N1 and whether they were from one variation of the same influenza or another is completley irrelevant.

Not only is it demeaning to the poor souls that perrished, it also gives readers a false sense of security which is extremely dangerous.

And dangerous not just for people in your country, its equally as dangerous to the whole world.

Please, try to do some due dilligence or get out of that job because its too big for you and for that matter all of the rest of the world too.

Honestly do these people got it, or are they really just that stupid.

arkay

Bird flu alert in Indonesia
Published: 12/12/2012 at 07:08 PM Online news:
Indonesian authorities have stepped up bird flu monitoring after thousands of poultry have died on Java island in recent months, officials said Wednesday.

A strain of the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus was believed to have caused the deaths among poultry in Jakarta and other areas, said Emil Agustiono, the head of the National Zoonosis Committee.
Link here...

[link to www.bangkokpost.com]

This next article is not directly H5N1 related, but I wanted to highlight it, in spite of its age, because of three reasons.

Firstly, is the astounding amounts of money involved.

This is the why these conglomerates can have so much political influence on government decision making processes, when they should always be made transparently and at arms length.

Political contributions as significant as can be afforded by Big Pharma can be used to influence decisions and for that reason there will always be healthy suspicion of all decisions that are made when big pharma is involved, and hence suspicion as to the genuine benefits of these companies products for the general community.

The only solution is to put an end to these companies making any contributions to any political organizations, period.

The second point that jumps out to me in respect to this article is the fact that while "the company" which is a paper entity is punished, those who make the decisions that resulted in that punishment get away scott free.

This practice is common to all companies with boards of directors making decisions on company activities.

Its way past time when paper entities that are operated by real people need to have rules and laws govening the operation of those companies by these people that make the directors personally liable for criminal conviction.

Without limitations companies can and frequently do commit immoral and illegal activities and as long as there is no personal accountability by the decision makers these practices will continue, so real changes are needed.

The last thing that I wanted to address is the marketing practices that these conglomerates can and do indulge themselves in.

In order to influence doctors and specialists to use their products, advertising and marketing campaigns and programmes are commonly used.

These entities have such immense cash reserves available to them, that spending a couple of thousand dollars per year on each practicioner in order to influence decisions is nothing compared to the profits that are returned.

Decisions should be based only what is best for the patient, without the warm and fuzzies from Big Pharma sponsored activities.

The truth is that these decisions are never ONLY just about the patients interest.

Its just human nature, and if there was no cost/ reward benefit to these companies for injecting that level of funding to medicos, then they wouldnt do it, so by reason of this too, these and all marketing practices and influences must also be removed from the picture.

If you like you can find any number of similarities between these matters and those that the tobacco industry has previously indulged in and is now basically abolished.

Ive known of overseas trips, weekly lavish dinners for medicos to introduce a new product or just to have a get together, you name it, these are the fringe benefits that are provided and they are significant, as are their results.

And so the system becomes corrupted, decisions arent always the very best available, or at least they can be questioned.

If humanity wants reliable and trustworthy medical care at all levels then there are some specific structural changes that need to be made and its already way past time for it.

There is any amount of suspicion and distrust from the general community over any number of medical issues and these problems will continue to grow in both depth and breadth if nothing is done that provides us, the consumers, with a definate and clear demonstration of total imparciality and unimpended performance with only one focus, that being our collective welfare, above everything.

arkay

GlaxoSmithKline pleads guilty in $3B US drug fraud case
Admits misbranding Paxil, Wellbutrin; withholding safety data for Avandia
CBC News Posted: Jul 2, 2012 3:30 PM ET Last Updated: Jul 2, 2012 5:59 PM ET

In a $3 billion settlement reached with U.S. federal and state governments, GlaxoSmithKline, whose London headquarters are pictured above, admitted Monday that it marketed its antidepressants Paxil and Wellbutrin for unapproved uses, including to treat depression in adolescents and children. It also admitted holding back safety data on its diabetes drug Avandia that it showed it had possible heart risks. (Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press)

Link here...

[link to www.cbc.ca]

In recent times Indonesia has been seeing more than its share of attention in these posts.

This has been because there has been a new clade of H5N1 show up there along with widespread bird deaths and then the reported death of a toddler there followed by the release of information of another prior death that somehow managed to go unreported.

Most of the news from there has been typically disjointed and it has only just been realized that in fact their authorities are seriously struggling to contain a widespread outbreak of, and the spread and destructionn from this new deadlier clade of H5N1.

Today we see this fresh report of another man with suspected H5N1.

Its pretty clear that authorities there have responded for too slowly and are still not culling flocks of affected birds, which will see this outbreak continue to spread and probably cause more human deaths too

For those that havent done the math, Indonesia has the highest percentage of human deaths from H5N1 since it was first detected, and out of the world total of over 360 human fatalities, Indonesia has contributed over 160 of them, not much short of half of the worlds total fatalities just in that one region.

Based on these numbers and the extended time with H5N1 presence globally, the Indonesian Authorities must take responsibility for not acting more appropriately with their recognition and actions towards this deadly threat to humanity.

All other affected communities have been bought up to speed and reduced their risks significantly while Indonesia has sat back and even refused to perticipate with international programs, thus endangering the worlds population.

All becaues of some missguided belief in their nations sovereinghty to keep their local affairs to themselves.

I dont dissagree with that right, in fact far from it, however in matters that do directly impact on the rest of the world surely there could have been some sort of common ground on which to work together.

Simple sharing of knowledge would have benefited their people greatly and knowledge of their H5N1 strains may have been of assistance to other international research groups.

We can only hope that all this serious mess is quickly contained before it becomes a serious world wide problem.

The Central Java Health Agency says it has received a report of a suspected case of bird flu in the province. The 54-year-old man, a resident of the Sambiroto subdistrict, was currently under treatment at St. Elisabeth Hospital in Semarang, officials said. "The man has been suffering from a cough, a cold and a high fever, with temperature above 38 degrees Celsius," Rorry Hartono, the agency's disease control and environmental health division chief, said on Wednesday. More than 62,000 ducks have thought to have died from the H5N1 virus in 21 regencies and cities in the province as of Tuesday, according to officials.

Link here...

[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Here is another confirmed report of massive bird die offs from H5N1 in Indonesia, with mention of more as yet to be confirmed deaths in another location.

A senior official overseeing animal husbandry in Indonesia's East Java province confirmed Tuesday that the cause of the recent deaths of 11,000 ducks in the Kediri regency was avian influenza. The confirmation came up after the regency administration received results of examinations on bio molecular samples of the ducks taken last month. "We knew the results after received results of examinations conducted by a laboratory in Malang, East Java. Results from the other examination conducted by a laboratory in Yogyakarta had not been released,"said Sri Suparmi, head of Kediri regency animal husbandry supervisory body. She said that the type avian flu attacked the ducks in the regency was different from the other ones that attacked chickens and birds.

Link here...

[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Since the WHO has changed its H5N1 avian flu reporting format to just monthly, we dont see human deaths being reported till porentially 30 days after they obtain this news, which is of course not in the best interest of all.

Here, in what is basically their first monthly report we see that there has been a death of a 2 year old girl in Egypt, but which only the WHO knew about.

Why would they wish to retard the dissemination of information so essential as this?

To give the disease a head start?

This is rediculous and it must be stopped immediately.

As an individual I cannot accept the increased risks that I am being unnessarily exposed to as a result of this unjustified action and neither can any other individual on this planet.

Just what is the WHO's role these days?

Human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses and associated animal health events
From 2003 through 17 December 2012, 610 laboratory-confirmed human cases with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection have been officially reported to WHO from 15 countries, of which 360 died. Since January 2012, 32 human cases of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection have been reported to WHO.
Since the last update on 5 November 2012, two new laboratory-confirmed human cases with influenza A(H5N1) virus infection were reported to WHO, one from Egypt and the other a fatal case from Indonesia.
Table 1: laboratory-confirmed human cases with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection reported between 5 November and 17 December 2012
Country
Province
Age (y)
Sex
Date of onset
Date of Hospitalisation
Date of death
Oseltamivir treatment Start date
Exposure to
Egypt
Demietta governorate
2
F
3/12/2012
1/12/2012
4/12/2012
Backyard poultry (chicken and ducks)
Indonesia
West Java
4
M
30/11/2012
5/12/2012
6/12/2012
Poultry (duck) in neighbourhood

Link here...

[link to www.who.int]

This article is important in as much as it speaks about the Ural Mountain regions in Russia where the weather is now cooling and the migration of millions of birds from there into Europe could have the potential to start a world wide pandemic of H5N1 avian influenza as they migrate to all corners of the planet in their winter migration, and potentially carrying the H5N1 virus with them.

It is certainly a time to be vigilant as we witness a massive vectoring of these birds away from their common summer breeding grounds.

European influenza outbreak of plague rampant apocalyptic precursor

"Autumn, the weather is cold, a group of geese fly south, while arranged in a zigzag, while rows of herringbone ......" a lot of people, especially in the eyes of national epidemiologists and government officials, this fall migratory birds may not be as romantic as in previous years.

When a wild duck flying south wings from the European continent hinterland cool Ural Mountains, concerns about a deadly disease Bo - Avian Influenza also brewing on the European continent.

Occasion of the spring and summer of this year, the northward migratory birds have the deadly virus to the interior of Europe, and now, the the upcoming migratory birds again will bring it to more places? Avian influenza have much on this global pandemic risk it?

Link here...

[link to translate.google.com]

From the above posting I have inadvertantly made this a report of a death of a 2 yo girl in Egypt, this is wrong and I apolagize for this serious mistake on my behalt.

The case is a case of H5N1 being reported as positive and very fortunately I am pleased to report that this little girl is under treatment and is currently surviving.

My sincerest apolagies to anyone whom I may have caused any undue concerns to.

arkay

Following another outbreak of now confirmed H5N1 avian influenza in Nepal, officials have decided to cull all poultry in the affected general area, a total of over 3,000 fowl, in order to prevent the spread of this disease further.

This is a lesson that the Indonesian Authorities desperately need to learn and duplicate in order to begin to limit the dangerous situation they continue to down play in their area of responsibilities.

The Central Veterinary Lab, Tripureshwar has confirmed that chicken at a poultry farm in Dharke, Naubise in Dhading district died due to bird flu. Samples were taken for test from local Laxmi Pokhrel's poultry farm after the chicken started dying all of a sudden at the poultry farm since December 13. A meeting of the District Livestock Office, Dhading, chaired by Chief District Officer and Chairman of Bird Flu Technical Committee, Dhading district, Bed Prasad Kharel, held today, declared the area around the farm as bird flu infected area and decided to cull the fowls here to prevent the disease from spreading to other areas.

Link here...

[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Back to the crusade that Ive been running regarding the CDC's handling of the H3N2v origins.

We now have the following which seems to be providing the answers finally.

From all that I can gleen from all this it would appear the the original day care centre child that was admitted to hospital and who it was originally though was to be Patient Zero, has now turned out to NOT be that Index Case.

Where all the confusion has risen from, has been the fact that this patient tested negative for influenza on admission to hospital.

This gave the appearance of an Index Case , where in fact there were earlier cases that were the result of reassortments from another similar virus.

The case that tested negative for influenza at hospital admission now appears at least to me as having been a false negative, as this person did have previous close contact with other people who had also been in contact with swine.

One of the main problems that has contributed to the confusion over this incident has been that the CDC as consistently been on the record as stating that this strain of H3N2v as NOT been hughly H2H transmissible, when in fact it has displayed quite actuve H2H transmissibility.

This whole saga has been quite significant and had the CDC been more thorough with an emerging new strain of virus than they had, then this confusion may have been avoided.

The while senario only goes to highlight some of the curve balls that can and in this case indeed were hidden in the details.

Lets hope that in the future the CDC will fully study and gain complete understanding of any new viral strains that do emerge, as to make the simple missjudgements or assumptions that occurred here could have far greater implications with a virus more deadly that what this H3N2v has turned out to be.

Turning bad experience into good as, we all should do with this type of experience, we are perhaps fortunate to have had this relatively harmless experience to give us all valuable lessons to learn from.

Ultimately, after much ado and considerable noise for this writer and I am sure several others, I would like to offer my belated congratulations to the CDC for taking the criticism and continuing on in adversity to finally establish all the relevant facts with this virus.

I am quite prepared to also go on record saying that it is to the CDC's credit that they did work through adversity and produced the goods for us all as we charge them to do.

So, with all this in mind, I personally offer my congratulations to the CDC and would also like to add that they have restored my faith in their capacity to be what we expect them to be.

Thank you.

arkay.

Iowa H3N2v Child Matches 2012 Cases
Recombinomics Commentary 16:30
December 20, 2012

The CDC has released a full set of cloned (and original) sequences from the week 47 case in Iowa, A/Iowa/16.2012, collected on November 17, almost exactly one year after the cluster in Iowa involving confirmed cases in classmates and symptomatic relatives (father and brother of index case). Those three cases were the last three cases in 2011 which matched the seven prior human cases. All had an H1N1pdm09 MP gene as well as PB1 and NA from circulating swine H1N2v.

Those three cases were followed by a cluster at a West Virginia Mineral County day care center (A/West Virginia/06/2011 and A/West Virginia/07/2011). Two cases were confirmed but 22 additional contacts of the index case were symptomatic, signaling sustained human transmission.

Link here...

[link to www.recombinomics.com]

If this wasnt so extremely serious, youd laugh till the next forcast of the end of the world!

I spotted this story on Treyfish's blogspot...

[link to swineflumagazine.blogspot.com.au]

as its his lead story today, so I hope he doesent mind me using his link to the story.

Regular readers will remember back in April both Treyfish and I were pretty critical of the way matters were being handled and information was being witheld by the health officials of Jordan over the outbreak of a deadly disease that was spreading throughout one of their teaching hospitals and which resulted in the deaths of a number of their medical personnel and their relatives there.

The case was so badly handled and though it ultimately burned itself out without any answers, eventually the deadly novel coronavirus that later showed up in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, was ultimatedly identified as the same that had hit Jordan in April.

Had the Jordanian health officials been far more pro-active and responsible in the execution of their duties, that novel coronavirus might have been identified far earlier and some later deaths might have been avoided.

Well this article from Jordan now sees these same health authorities blatantly congratulating themselves on what a wonderful job they did with the way they dealt with the April incident at their hospital.

They clain that they are a model for others to follow!!

This just is the most unimmaginable load of bull excrement I might have ever come across in my life.

Not only are these people dangerous, they are absolutely without remorse for their culpable innactions.

Delusions of grandeur dont come close to describing how out of touch with reality they really are.

What they should be saying its that we are humbly resigning and handing ourselves over for judgement for our part in the unnessary death and suffering of others as a direct result of our culpable actions/innactions.

These people disgust me.

arkay

A global conference on the new Corona virus in Amman next month. Friday, 21 December 2012 00:03 ..

Way - Ahmad Barqawi

Hosts the Jordanian capital of Amman conference in the fight against global epidemics next month; to talk about the latest developments about the virus, "the new Corona."
The WHO held a conference in Jordan, as announced by the WHO Representative in Oman Akram Toum; depth of experience to the Ministry of Health in dealing with a disease caused by a virus of the new style.
This came during a meeting of the Supreme Steering Committee to combat epidemics, which is chaired by the Minister of Health yesterday, in the presence of the representative of the World Health Organization Amman, and members of the Committee who represent all medical sectors.
The Committee confirmed the safety, accuracy and professional actions taken by the Ministry of Health towards cases of severe pneumonia in blue Hospital in the month of April.

Link here...

[link to www.assabeel.net]