In very sad news the pediatric death rates in the US from Pneumonia and Influenza have taken a dramatic turn for the worst with significant percentage increases and showing signs that the total pediatric fatalites this season could potentially exceed the 2003 record death rates.

The week 3 Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Death Rate jumped to 9.8% from 8.3% in week 2. The 8.3% in week 2 represented a full percentage point jump from the 7.3% in week 1, which was just above the epidemic threshold. The 8.3% produced a dramatic spike as seen above, while tomorrow’s graph will be alarming and may precipitate another CDC telebriefing. The 9.8% rate is the highest rate since the peak in late 2003, when the rate briefly topped 10%. However, the steep curve in the recent rates suggests the rate in week 4 may be higher than the record level in 2003.

Last week the 8.3% rate was associated with 16 cities that had at least 10 P&I deaths and a rate of at least 10%, including one city with a rate above 20% (Springfield MA) and three additional cities with a rate above 15% (Knoxville TN, Akron OH, Nashville TN). In week 3 the number of cities that match the above criteria increased to 36 (see list below) including six with a rate above 20% (Canton OH, Duluth MN, New Haven CT, Knoxville TN, Worchester MA, Waterbury CT) as well as 9 more with rates above 15% (Erie PA, Ogden UT, South Bend IN, Akron OH, Des Moines IA, Washington DC, Syracuse NY, Providence RI, Austin TX).

Link here...

[link to www.recombinomics.com]