<<Advancing Bird Flu-H5N1...Now following MERS and Ebola approaching PANDEMICS>>>

[link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

this has been known about for much longer than we are being told

Good pick up uk anon, always there with the radar on the highest setting.

Like you Ive noticed and wondered about the reasons for these regional clusters.

These regions have been consistently reporting outbreaks this flu season and about all I can come up with is to think that probably the weather this year in this particular region must somehow be slightly different than previous years, and that those tiny differences might in fact be quite significant for viral activity, but that cant be the full story.

I do know that Australia "inherits" its summer northern tropical activity from over the equator and can easily be traced as far as Mt Everest and that general region.

This year we have had significant rain events all related to tropical weather activity so there have been different weather conditions in the regions that you focus on, which does indicate some weather differences.

Other influences might need to be looked at from a more seperate perspective.

If we look at H1N1 swine flu, then the predominant general region would have to be India, and I think that with H1N1 we have probably been witnessing a "second wave" event from the 2009 pandemic, but with more than one strain evident and so escalating the effect from that flu.

With H5N1 however, we have a totally different senario.

This virus has really made an up tick in activity.

It has already done huge damage in Cambodia, by comparison to previous years, and has and continues to make its presence felt in Vietnam along with Cambodia, but I think that to a degree this is a shared experience that both Vietnam and Cambodia are having.

One of the main problems there has been border smuggling of infected birds.

This has also been a problem along the Chinese borders and we have seen a couple of unfortunate human fatalities in china from H5N1 avian influenza.

I think that general poverty in communities plays a significant role with poor reporting, bad disposal techniques and selling of sick birds to salvage some desperately needed income are all contributing factors.

But again, these things generally speaking are consistant year after year, so there must be other factors that have been present to see activity ramped up to the levels that have existed there this year.

Another region that is very active but to a large degree is unknown is Indonesia, where their officials are very reluctant to even admit that they have had problems.

Treyfish manages to ferrett out quite a bit of info from this region that reveals they have been having a significant problem there, its just that most of the information is suppressed.

I think that at one stage they had 6 governances simultaneously affected with H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks in their poultry flocks.

So, if you add Indonesia to the picture that UK anon has drawn attention to, we end up with a huge general area where there has been a far greater than normal activity level of the two influenzas.

I also find that the its seems to be the incidence of H5N1 avian influenza and H1N1 swine flu that are significantly active in the region we refer to, but by comparrison the other seasonal influenzas seem to be more or less as they have been in previous years with no real noticeable increase above their expected baselines, so why that unaccounted for difference?

Shouldnt H3N2 and influenza B have also experienced a higher level of activity than has been evident?

In all honesty, these significant changes and events deserve some very serious consideration and careful study.

If the real influences that are active here could be identified, we might learn something of immense value that could conveivably be useful in reducing the impact of a future pandemic.

I think that uk anon has spotted something very significant here, and that observation could lead to some very important new information that could be highly beneficial to our better understanding of virus behavour.

Ive said it many times before about uk anon.

This person is an amazingly intelligent and talented person and we dont properly appreciate the depth of talents that she brings to us here.

Thank you so much from us all, uk anon.

Please continue to stay with us here, its things like this that make your presence so highly prized, and I am certain that you will have unknowingly saved lives through some of what you have contributed in this thread.

To me you are as much a hero as the researchers that dedicate their lives chasing down facts and finding solutions in the fight against these viral menances.

From us all in appreciation.

I cant keep up with you!

Are you on steroids today!!!

hehe...amazing and highly commendable.

Re the above, you make a very compelling observation.

Perhaps we should try to learn a little more about this, just to clear it all up as it could be a very significant factor.

Last Edited by arkay on 03/20/2013 06:25 PM

Now that is a significant collection of related material.

Thank you again uk anon, magnificant work.

Reading through all of those documents and thinking about what we do know about this new coronavirus, ther does seem to be loose associations emerging.

It seems evident from sites like [link to www.recombinomics.com]
that some highly qualified experts are thinking that this coronavirus may already be or at least approaching a pandemic level if it can be shown that it does in fact infect to a much lighter degree than we have witnessed with the most severe of cases, usually resulting with fatal outcomes.

Take that into account and these new facts that uk anon presents and it becomes possible that this coronavirus may have been amongst us for a very long time and that it might have undergone some recent reassortment in recent times that has finally made it far more obvious.

Indeed I read today where sequencing of this coronavirus has revealed that it is in fact many generations away from bats, and also that it has previously happened where we hummans have passed these types of contaigens to animals and birds, before it has returned back to humans, so tracing their evolution is not always as straightfoward as would initially be thought.

Another fact that seems now to be emerging with coronaviruses is the fact that often it appears that they prefer to piggy back along with other illnesses, which might suggest that a compromised immune system could significantly increase both the risk of contracting a co-infection, and the severity of the resultant illness are two factors that seen to becoming evident.

What is it about this general region, the Arabian Peninsula that makes it so condusive for this and similar types of coronavirus to prefer.

Do we now begin to look at food types that are favored in this region as a possible vector, and in this regard I am thinking of the link between bats and various friut trees that both bats and humans have preferences for.

This would also not rule out birds that could also be cross infected and confusing the picture.

Birds could then be hunted and consumed by cats and it doesent have to follow that all the cats need to be domestic as wild cats will mingle with domestic cats and from there they could also pass on contaigens.

We have previously seen how cats were so important a factor with SARS, another coronavirus.

All this just goes to cloud attempts to locate the reservoir for this coronavirus, if indeed there is just one rather than several now.

Do we consider large dry desert expanses and their associated weather as influences that seems to regionalize these coronaviruses.

There really are so many perplexing questions and so far too few clues.

What is it about this general region, the Arabian Peninsula that makes it so condusive for this and similar types of coronavirus to prefer.

Do we now begin to look at food types that are favored in this region as a possible vector, and in this regard I am thinking of the link between bats and various friut trees that both bats and humans have preferences for.

This would also not rule out birds that could also be cross infected and confusing the picture.

Is it possible desert fruits dates ,figs , prickly fruit ,could it also be picked up from sheep ? they eat sheep brain a delicacy many of these animals are free range wandering more or less as they please .

Another possibility to consider is that many arab homes keep birds, finches act often catching them from the wild ,.
Have any of the coronavirus victims been in homes where these birds are kept?

As for the fruit , in almost every arab home you will be offered fruit at the end of each meal .

Another factor to consider is the family structure many arabs live in extended family units unlike in Europe .

Well again thank you uk anon for your insights.

They do add considerable scope to the possibilities, many of which could easily be missed by foreighen eyes and it just goes to demonstrate that the diversity and differences that his region really does present in relation to attempting to track down both the reservour and potential vectors is the challenge that has already been experienced.

Youve just added sheep to the mix and they are mammals, which now potentially again changes the potential dynamic of reasortment opportunities that might impact on humans.

Just sitting back and trying to absorb all these possibilities, one has to wonder if we really have any decent chance at nailing down and eliminating these major factors before we end up being overwhelmed with a new SARS like pandemic.

Its a scarey situation that seems to be defying our best efforts so far to date and as you so sicinctly point out most of us cant even begin to appreciate the many differences that have to be examined.

I for one would love to see your talented eyes and knowledge in the region working on these important aspects.

I suspect that your keen observation and senses would be very likely to produce valuable results in a desperately needed timely manner.

I for one would love to see your talented eyes and knowledge in the region working on these important aspects.

I suspect that your keen observation and senses would be very likely to produce valuable results in a desperately needed timely manner.

interesting thought ,and I would enjoy the challenge but that would mean, having to study a whole new field, medicine and as much as I feel confident i could learn, not sure at this point in life just how quickly.
Hopefully people looking in on this thread can take test ideas and test them out .

a quick note that may be of importance is the sacrificing of sheep during hajj
at a point when muslims from all over the world gather in mecca .
This certainly has huge potential for viruses to co infect and the sheep could play a huge role as people will sit and eat together often following the sunna eating with there hands and eating from one dish ..if I had to make suggestions i would reccommend all sheep to be sacrificed to be checked and that people be requested to , refrain from sharing food from one plate but rather be served separately .
I think due to the large numbers of people congregating that health scanners should be employed , but not sure how they would work in these conditions due to extreme heat and the fact that people walk several miles during the Mount arafat passage .

Perhaps an important factor in dealing with this is gain the confidence of the Saudis, making them understand that this is not a personal attack but a genuine concern for all.

My other concern is people infected or showing symptoms of coronavirus should not be transported overseas for medical treatment but rather treated within there own boarders by international doctors .

[link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

Are you on steroids today!!!

these days there the only thing that keeps me going ... but seriously it;s the urgency I feel may be approaching with this situation ,like yourself I tend to be quite driven.
We have been working through this for some time now and as time passes you begin to get a feel for things, an extra sense if you;d like to call it that.

[link to www.saudigazette.com.sa]

its going to be interesting to see if more cases of coronavirus turn up over the coming weeks , also those who returned from ummra other wise known as the lesser hajj , still a significant number of pilgrims

[link to online.wsj.com]

this is worrying news , as it could mean cases not being reported , this is one of the reason I would be very cautious about blaming any particular country for initial outbreaks , .... in very conservative countries they don't respond well to this criticism ,in this case it could lead to deadly outcome

Agreed, and one only need read some of the local media to see at first hand the very real sensitivity to certain topics that is a part of the culture in this region.

The novel coronavirus that has been present in this region has already gained a nickname that could be perceived by the locals as offensive and for that reason I have refrained from using the term in this thread.

It is sad that these people would take matters so personally in relation to this topic, when clearly it is simply co-incidental and most likely a result of entirely natural circumstances well outside their area of control or influence.

The meer fact that the reservoir and vector have been so elusive is clear testiment to the fact that whatever they might be they are certainly not of human construct and the only time that humans are affected it is in the form of being an unfortunate victim to its presence.

Very good work on this thread. We have had a slowdown on coronavirus news for the past week or so, besides the reg news of nothing new. They can't pin it down and thats all they really are saying. They don't want to blame it all on SA just yet. Today,they will probably spring some 2 week old news on us. This is the reg pattern. 10 days to 2 weeks, then a death or announcement.
I notice my site has had some interesting activities, even though I have posted very little this past week or so. In another vein, H5N1 has practically evaporated in recent weeks, especially in Nam, Cambo, Egypt and Indonesia. Indo was having a huge die-off and then suddenly no news. Kronyvirus news should be out today,though they are keeping information very tight. It is all to protect SA..and oil,and travel. Again, Great work. Hats off to you all.

Trayfish good to see you again , like you I am expecting some news shortly

Bats join civet cats' import ban
March 21, 2013
The import of game masked palm civets - also known as Himalayan palm civets, gem-faced civets, or civet cats - is prohibited, the Centre for Food Safety said today, adding it would extend the import ban to bats due to the public health threat from novel coronavirus. [link to www.news.gov.hk]

With obammy on tour over ther, they may hold off on news till he gets home. No need to tell the truth while he is there. Funny that SA now has a speed pass to the U.S...

I picked upon this some while back for a long time vectoring was kept quite, or spoken of as if it was something new i.......its not .
Is it , that as things become more urgent, they will finally release more details.
I certainly believe that the hard work such as yourself and Arkay undertake in this respect make a difference and that people in the field of disease prevention regularly cast an eye of interest over your pages.

President Obama seems to be attempting to rebuild relations between Turkey and Israel at the moment his greater concerns seem to be the war of syria and its implications in the wider region.
From the looks of things and the movements between Israel and Turkey I would hazard a guess something significant is about to move in this department .
Russia's interest in proceedings in Cyprus might be something to do with this
its certainly unlike Israel to admit to or apologise for for its mistakes or otherwise.

[link to www.thepoultrysite.com]

Pennsylvania
2013 Week 11
Page 1 of 1 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health 2013-03-22
© GeneWurx.com 2013

[link to www.recombinomics.com]

Influenza Fatality and Hospitalisation Totals Influenza Fatality Count of 182 Citizens
&#61623; Fatalities increased by 8 to 1,655% of last season’s total and 202% of the previous record.
Fatality Count History for Pennsylvania &#61623; 2011-2012 Season 11
&#65532;&#65532;&#65532;&#65532;&#65532;&#65532;&#65532;&#655​32;&#65532;&#61623; 2010-2011 Season
&#61623; 2009-2010 Season 79
90 Previous State Record during 2nd Season of Pandemic H1N1
&#65532;State Record Influenza Hospitalisation Count of 3,377 Citizens
&#61623; Hospitalisations added 100. Now 12 Times last season’s total and double the previous record.
Hospitalisation Count History for Pennsylvania
&#61623; 2011-2012 Season
&#61623; 2010-2011 Season
&#61623; 2009-2010 Season
265
1,586 Previous State Record during 2nd Season of Pandemic H1N1 1,402
&#65532;

[link to www.cdc.gov]


ok heres praying this will work keep getting blocked but here goes

[link to gis.cdc.gov]

and again

[link to www.cdc.gov]

[link to www.aphca.org]

ttp://empres-i.fao.org/eipws3g/#h=0

ok that didn't work lets try this EMPRES Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES-i) i

[link to www.emperie.eu]