Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....

[link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 63 in early 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

BUT---even so all it takes is one flare like what hit during the Carrington event of 1859 to possibly knock out technologies. So we are not out of the woods yet just because they are predicting a week cycle. We have already seen some pretty good flares and strong CMEs this cycle.. or they could also be playing it down.

Carrington event link:

[link to science.nasa.gov]

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Another interesting link from the last solar cycle(23)..sounds to me like they would have better luck predicting the weather..lol..We shall see..

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Criticisms of long-term solar cycle prediction focus on the thin physical foundation beneath such predictions and the limitations of the data used to define and extend solar and geophysical variability. The panel largely agrees with these criticisms, and offers the following recommendations to improve future studies:

Long-term, consistent measurements of important solar and geophysical parameters should be continued and their quality maintained (e.g. calibration and sampling rates), including observations of 10.7 cm solar flux, international sunspot number, interplanetary fields and plasma near Earth, geomagnetic indices, and cosmic ray fluxes.

Measurements of those parameters which may improve our understanding of solar cycles, such as solar vector magnetic fields, coronal mass ejections, stellar observations, and paleo cosmogenic data (e.g., ice cores, tree rings, etc.) should be continued.

Prediction research should be supported and the scientific community encouraged to develop a fundamental understanding of the solar cycle that would provide the basis for physical rather than the present empirical prediction methods.


Pictures from the strongest proton storm in years..Don`t buy into this "weakest" cycle in 100 years..stay prepared





Last Edited by <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> on 02/22/2012 07:59 AM