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Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....

 
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>
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02/22/2012 07:30 AM
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Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
[link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 63 in early 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

BUT---even so all it takes is one flare like what hit during the Carrington event of 1859 to possibly knock out technologies. So we are not out of the woods yet just because they are predicting a week cycle. We have already seen some pretty good flares and strong CMEs this cycle.. or they could also be playing it down.

Carrington event link:

[link to science.nasa.gov]

_________________________________________________________

Another interesting link from the last solar cycle(23)..sounds to me like they would have better luck predicting the weather..lol..We shall see..

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Criticisms of long-term solar cycle prediction focus on the thin physical foundation beneath such predictions and the limitations of the data used to define and extend solar and geophysical variability. The panel largely agrees with these criticisms, and offers the following recommendations to improve future studies:

Long-term, consistent measurements of important solar and geophysical parameters should be continued and their quality maintained (e.g. calibration and sampling rates), including observations of 10.7 cm solar flux, international sunspot number, interplanetary fields and plasma near Earth, geomagnetic indices, and cosmic ray fluxes.

Measurements of those parameters which may improve our understanding of solar cycles, such as solar vector magnetic fields, coronal mass ejections, stellar observations, and paleo cosmogenic data (e.g., ice cores, tree rings, etc.) should be continued.

Prediction research should be supported and the scientific community encouraged to develop a fundamental understanding of the solar cycle that would provide the basis for physical rather than the present empirical prediction methods.


Pictures from the strongest proton storm in years..Don`t buy into this "weakest" cycle in 100 years..stay prepared

cme2222222

protons

Last Edited by <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> on 02/22/2012 07:59 AM
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 07:36 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
I am wondering if this could have anything to do with the Galactic ecliptic and a null force, high pressure neutral charge, causing the Sun to glow brighter, but it's effects to be diminished in scope.
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 07:38 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
Here is a article from 2004 National Geographic concerning the weakening magnetic field..funny how we don`t hear much about this from the scientific world lately..although several people on the web are claiming it is getting weaker...

[link to news.nationalgeographic.com]

Earth's magnetic field is fading. Today it is about 10 percent weaker than it was when German mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss started keeping tabs on it in 1845, scientists say.

If the trend continues, the field may collapse altogether and then reverse. Compasses would point south instead of north.


A more recent article concerning pole reversal and the magnetic field.

[link to www.science20.com]

However, one thing is apparent to me, most of the ‘experts’ seem to agree that we are overdue for a geomagnetic pole reversal and that there are even signs that this has already started to happen. Is it possible then that scientists and politicians are not eager to share the fact that no one is really sure about what will happen as the magnetic field weakens, shifts and then flips?

Last Edited by <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> on 02/22/2012 07:40 AM
aether

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02/22/2012 07:45 AM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
I am wondering if this could have anything to do with the Galactic ecliptic and a null force, high pressure neutral charge, causing the Sun to glow brighter, but it's effects to be diminished in scope.
 Quoting: Dionysian Fullaflatus



effects commonly associated with brighter sun diminished
other effects as a result of brighter sun increased
we are discovering these other effects and consequences
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 07:47 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
In 2010 the largest Filament ever recorded occurred...Filaments can create very large halo CMEs..We have had our share of filament eruptions in this cycle already.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


A prominence is a large, bright feature extending outward from the Sun's surface, often in a loop shape. Prominences are anchored to the Sun's surface in the photosphere, and extend outwards into the Sun's corona. While the corona consists of extremely hot ionized gases, known as plasma, which do not emit much visible light, prominences contain much cooler plasma, similar in composition to that of the chromosphere. A prominence forms over timescales of about a day, and stable prominences may persist in the corona for several months. Some prominences break apart and give rise to coronal mass ejections. Scientists are currently researching how and why prominences are formed.

A typical prominence extends over many thousands of kilometers; the largest on record was observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) in 2010 and is estimated at over 700,000 kilometres (430,000 mi) long [1] – roughly the radius of the Sun.
Luisport

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02/22/2012 07:47 AM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
bump
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 07:57 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
Here is a article from 2004 National Geographic concerning the weakening magnetic field..funny how we don`t hear much about this from the scientific world lately..although several people on the web are claiming it is getting weaker...

[link to news.nationalgeographic.com]

Earth's magnetic field is fading. Today it is about 10 percent weaker than it was when German mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss started keeping tabs on it in 1845, scientists say.

If the trend continues, the field may collapse altogether and then reverse. Compasses would point south instead of north.


A more recent article concerning pole reversal and the magnetic field.

[link to www.science20.com]

However, one thing is apparent to me, most of the ‘experts’ seem to agree that we are overdue for a geomagnetic pole reversal and that there are even signs that this has already started to happen. Is it possible then that scientists and politicians are not eager to share the fact that no one is really sure about what will happen as the magnetic field weakens, shifts and then flips?
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


If we are in for a pole reversal and the magnetic field is weak during this solar cycle as mentioned above then it would make us very vulnerable to CMEs...SO what they are saying is the weakest cycle in 100 years could be irrelevant due to a weak magnetic field..If anybody has any good scientific data supporting the weakening of the magnectic fields please post them...
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 07:59 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
nice sunbrocheers

:newwoody:
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

User ID: 921787
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02/22/2012 08:06 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
nice sunbrocheers

:newwoody:
 Quoting: IwantToBelieve76


Thanks brutha...I honestly believe sun doom is the biggest threat to our "way of life"...so dependent on modern technologies...old worn out power grids...it`s just an accident waiting to happen
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 08:11 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
A little deeper explanation of what they claim..

[link to science.nasa.gov]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 08:20 AM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

According to NASA, the intensity of geomagnetic storms during Solar Cycle 24 may be elevated in some areas where the Earth's magnetic field is weaker than expected. This fact was discovered by the THEMIS spacecraft in 2008.[5][6] A 20-fold increase in particle counts that penetrate the Earth's magnetic field may be expected.[7]

A lot of contradictions on this cycle...truth is they don`t really know...One punch is all it takes.

Last Edited by <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> on 02/22/2012 08:23 AM
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 12:06 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
I am wondering if this could have anything to do with the Galactic ecliptic and a null force, high pressure neutral charge, causing the Sun to glow brighter, but it's effects to be diminished in scope.
 Quoting: Dionysian Fullaflatus



effects commonly associated with brighter sun diminished
other effects as a result of brighter sun increased
we are discovering these other effects and consequences
 Quoting: aether


Indeed we are, especially if we are in the fuzzy realm of the storm before the melancholic null.
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 12:08 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
bump

for truth
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 12:12 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
...a short, sharp SHOT!

It only takes one big flare to change ALL peoples' life, as we currently know it, into an unrecognizable planet of 'every man for himself'! Good thread, OP!
NiNzrez

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02/22/2012 12:16 PM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
bump
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
thetruth
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02/22/2012 01:04 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
They know.Which is why the stole trillions of dollars to build these well built underground citys that connect from all over the world.Its called the killshot.The flares will come all the way to earth producing a frequency...
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 01:27 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
...a short, sharp SHOT!

It only takes one big flare to change ALL peoples' life, as we currently know it, into an unrecognizable planet of 'every man for himself'! Good thread, OP!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11262481


Thanks....We have heard so many contradictions in the last few years about this solar cycle that I have come to believe they haven`t a clue...even tho they play it down as a weak cycle they still don`t warn people that all it takes is one good flare/CME to blast out our technologies...no running water, no electricty, no sewer, no communications...inner city folks you better hang on tight because it`s going to get ugly if and when this does happen...
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 01:47 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
...a short, sharp SHOT!

It only takes one big flare to change ALL peoples' life, as we currently know it, into an unrecognizable planet of 'every man for himself'! Good thread, OP!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11262481


Thanks....We have heard so many contradictions in the last few years about this solar cycle that I have come to believe they haven`t a clue...even tho they play it down as a weak cycle they still don`t warn people that all it takes is one good flare/CME to blast out our technologies...no running water, no electricty, no sewer, no communications...inner city folks you better hang on tight because it`s going to get ugly if and when this does happen...
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


clappa
NiNzrez

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02/22/2012 01:59 PM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
the sun is taking a deep quiet before unleashing something very big
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 02:04 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
So is there really nobody who could give some practical examples of effects of a collapsing / reversing magnetic field? Compasses pointing south instead of north is easily fixed, turn around the indicators ^^
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
So is there really nobody who could give some practical examples of effects of a collapsing / reversing magnetic field? Compasses pointing south instead of north is easily fixed, turn around the indicators ^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11276105


Did ya read this link? It is two pages...

[link to news.nationalgeographic.com]
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 03:53 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
bumppeace
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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02/22/2012 06:58 PM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
weakest solar cycle has more to do with climate change, not powerful CME that can show up without a warning as it happened with Carrington event during weak cycle.
AlcoholicRunner
I abduct humans and drink at the same time.

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02/22/2012 07:00 PM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
I am much more scared of this magnitude of power - [link to www.robertschoch.com] - if that actually happened at that time! hiding
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 07:02 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
Isn't cycle 25 the big one?
NiNzrez

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02/22/2012 07:10 PM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
Isn't cycle 25 the big one?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11288356


this one will be
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 07:14 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
From what I have noticed, the solar weather that produces smaller flares & CME's produces heavier electromagnetic interference with the magnetosphere.

There's seems to be an inverse relationship between Flare+CME size and EMP size in solar weather.
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>> (OP)

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02/22/2012 07:35 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
Isn't cycle 25 the big one?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11288356


this one will be
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yup.. i think 24 will be more active than what they say....they are actually predicting 25 to be very weak...

Wow a delayed pin...lol...
Anonymous Coward
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02/22/2012 07:38 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
As OP said, it only takes one big flare like the Carrington event to send us bag to the 1800's !

With our magnetic field weakened even a solar cycle like the one in 2000-2001 will spell big trouble for our tech dependent society !
KAITIAKI

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02/22/2012 08:07 PM
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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....



This is interesting !

The Fireballs of February
[link to science.nasa.gov]

and this !

NASA Claims Sun's Polar Shift Due In 2012
[link to www.bibliotecapleyades.net]

And Nasa -

Space Weather Center to Add World's First 'Ensemble Forecasting' Capability

After years of relative somnolence, the sun is beginning to stir. By the time it's fully awake in about 20 months, the team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., charged with researching and tracking solar activity, will have at their disposal a greatly enhanced forecasting capability

Since the sun reached its solar minimum in 2008

As part of its 11-year cycle, the sun is entering solar maximum, the period of greatest activity. It is expected to peak in 2013
[link to www.nasa.gov]

And they were saying (I cant find the story atm) March 2013 is the expected peak !

So to work on a cycles average activity, the sun has alot of catching up to do in a short amount of time IMO so we probably will be in for a rough time !

bump
Oldcrow64
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02/22/2012 08:18 PM

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Re: Weakest Solar Cycle in over a 100 years...Do not buy into it....
Good posting, well researched.
There are too many incidences that have been occurring since this solar cycle started.

It would be a wise move to down play an upcoming event that would be devastating to a society, if one could not protect said society.

It would minimized the collateral damage that would ensue through a mass panic with populations relocating to safe zones.
bump

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