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Message Subject
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7.9+ Mag Earthquake near Acapulco, Mexico - DEVELOPING
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Poster Handle
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Beezy |
Post Content
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Here's what I can find: The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks. [ link to bssa.geoscienceworld.org] Quoting: igCorcaigh Could you re-word that into something that my tired "brian" might understand?
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