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DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 02:11 PM
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DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation:

Carmel Asset Management :

In summary:

1. Spain’s national debt is 50% greater than the headline numbers

Spain’s debt-to-GDP balloons from 60% to 90% of GDP with regional and other debts

2. Spain’s housing prices will fall by an additional 35%

Spain built one house for every additional person added to the population during the past two decades; the fall will decrease GDP by ~2% each of the next two years

3. Spain has “zombie” banks with massive loans to developers and to homeowners

Banks have not begun to realize losses and are vastly undercapitalized

4. Spain’s economy has not stabilized and will continue to deteriorate

Spain has the highest unemployment in the developed world, one of the highest overall debt loads, and the most uncompetitive labor market in Europe

5. The EU will not have the firepower or political will to bail out Spain

Rescue fund headline numbers are misleading and count capital that is not yet committed

And here are the problems that will manifest themselves over the next 12 months:

•Spain’s true debt burden will pass the 90% “tipping point” identified by Rogoff and Reinhart
•Housing prices will fall further and faster than anticipated (consensus is 15%; CAM estimate is 35%)
•Banks underestimate the residential real estate loan defaults (consensus estimate is 2.8% vs. CAM estimate of 11%)
•Expected housing price depreciation and loan defaults will deepen Spain’s recession (additional 2% contraction in 2012 and 2013)
•Spain will need to refinance €186.1 Billion in 2012 alone

[link to www.zerohedge.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 02:21 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
The house bubble in Spain created during the "boom years" is far worse than in the US.

I would advise them to change their laws concerning the acces to their houses.

Today lots of young spanish people come to the north looking for jobs.
Today also, lots of mid aged people look for sun, spanish way of life, tapas, sea food and vino rosso.

Times are going to be tough in 2012/13, but it could get better.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 02:23 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
I expect a south euro and a north euro. I expected this already in summer this year. Maybe I am 6 month off.
my2centsworth

User ID: 5382682
Canada
04/08/2012 02:32 PM

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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
The financiers of our world economy keep pulling rabbits out of a proverbial hat, to keep the world economy running against all odds. I don't question your stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if somehow, they pull another rabbit out of their hat to cover up the Spanish economic problems and Spain will go on, as is, for another year or two before they run out of rabbits or hats.
Sedi

User ID: 1552632
United States
04/08/2012 02:32 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
IMF going to pick up another country for pennies on the dollar?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
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04/08/2012 03:50 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
The financiers of our world economy keep pulling rabbits out of a proverbial hat, to keep the world economy running against all odds. I don't question your stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if somehow, they pull another rabbit out of their hat to cover up the Spanish economic problems and Spain will go on, as is, for another year or two before they run out of rabbits or hats.
 Quoting: my2centsworth


This year Spain has to rebourse 181 billion and trust me they don't have that amount of money.

Then they need another hundreds of billion to keep on going through fiscal year 2013.

China won't pay it, the US won't pay it, the IMF won't pay it, France is sliding more and more to the Spain scenario, Italy is already there, and Germany would commit national suicide if they would pay it.

There are no more rabbits in the hat. Maybe they pull out something else, but if they do not find this something else, the shit is about to hit the fan.

My prediction: When before summer, the financial markets react nerveous and pressure is building up, expect another lehman moment in the second half of 2012.

And then forget 2009 or 2010, historian will say, that this was picknick time.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 03:54 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
The financiers of our world economy keep pulling rabbits out of a proverbial hat, to keep the world economy running against all odds. I don't question your stats, but I wouldn't be surprised if somehow, they pull another rabbit out of their hat to cover up the Spanish economic problems and Spain will go on, as is, for another year or two before they run out of rabbits or hats.
 Quoting: my2centsworth


This year Spain has to rebourse 181 billion and trust me they don't have that amount of money.

Then they need another hundreds of billion to keep on going through fiscal year 2013.

China won't pay it, the US won't pay it, the IMF won't pay it, France is sliding more and more to the Spain scenario, Italy is already there, and Germany would commit national suicide if they would pay it.

There are no more rabbits in the hat. Maybe they pull out something else, but if they do not find this something else, the shit is about to hit the fan.

My prediction: When before summer, the financial markets react nerveous and pressure is building up, expect another lehman moment in the second half of 2012.

And then forget 2009 or 2010, historian will say, that this was picknick time.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13843924


And behing Spain is Portugal.

The portuguese economy depends almost to 100 % on Spain. Add some meat to the above digits, add some more billions, hundreds, and then the picture is going to adjust to reality.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/08/2012 03:56 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
Since I am not banned anymore, I forget to check in. Please ban me, mods.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 03:56 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
Since I am not banned anymore, I forget to check in. Please ban me, mods.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


:Gunman1:

:Ahhhhh:
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 04:03 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
I won't even imagine only the outcome of the CDS game ... and they are not in Europe, those papers .... .

But if we here do not buy anymore your american products we need .... hehehhheh hahahahhah, china ain't gonna buy them and england neither.

I personnaly think the euro doom has more impact to everyone of us than if iran closes the straits for some month.

damned
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12279847
United Kingdom
04/08/2012 04:08 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
Since I am not banned anymore, I forget to check in. Please ban me, mods.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


You got banned for posting this thread ?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 04:11 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
Since I am not banned anymore, I forget to check in. Please ban me, mods.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


You got banned for posting this thread ?
 Quoting: Bovriltard


No, they told me that they ban whole areas, and my IP happened to be in that area.

I don't span or troll, I speak my mind. I don't understand why they banned me. That happened before.

I don't care, I can always connect on the ban page.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 04:14 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
Since I am not banned anymore, I forget to check in. Please ban me, mods.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


You got banned for posting this thread ?
 Quoting: Bovriltard


No, they told me that they ban whole areas, and my IP happened to be in that area.

I don't span or troll, I speak my mind. I don't understand why they banned me. That happened before.

I don't care, I can always connect on the ban page.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


TRIN needs to make sure that everything goes allright with this page, I trust him and if there is an inconviance I don't complain.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 04:23 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
What is important is the outcome of this game:

1) there is a north and a south euro

means that products and part you buy from the north become more expensive, banks will collapse, probably there will be disorder, another time banks won't function, there is great chance that an economic recession might follow.

Debts needs to be written off, that takes years.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 04:26 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
2) Everybody goes back to his national money.

The worst case. That would mean everybody protects his banks and assests. This scenario is one against the other.

In a global connected economic system, this would put the biggest burden on all.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 13843924
France
04/08/2012 04:31 PM
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Re: DOOM is on. If you think 2008/2009 was bad, think again.
We will see. I understand that this is a bit abstract.

I will make some threads to this, if I see something.

Nevertheless, this is important. This is more important than for example the mid east conflict or the korean nuclear test coming up.

hf

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