Godlike Productions - Conspiracy Forum
Users Online Now: 1,682 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 476,951
Pageviews Today: 690,249Threads Today: 179Posts Today: 3,755
06:37 AM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12

 
TheTruthWorker
Offer Upgrade

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/17/2012 09:04 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
On April 12th I speculated weather we see a quake over 6.5 within a day of April 18 due to patterns of significant earthquakes -- related to the history of close approach dates of several potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA)...

Full prediction Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18

Today we got a 6.8 falling within the 3 day window. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

This asteroid/earthquake pattern recognition approach worked 3 out of 4 times. The other 3 forecasts calling for a 7.0+ quake:

Mar 20: HIT Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14
Apr 03: MISS Thread: 7+ Mag EARTHQUAKE due to asteroid near Earth on April 3rd
Apr 12: HIT Thread: HIT! April 11 earthquake in Sumatra was predicted on March 25

I do not know for sure why relatively small space rocks would cause this but just recognizing historic patterns. And I certain understand one must take into account probability statistics. I have to weed through dozens of NEO/PHA's to find one that fits this model of an object having a consistant pattern of significant earthquakes on all 3 or more of the most recent Earth close approach dates.
pray_Italy
User ID: 14577812
Italy
04/17/2012 11:44 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
clappa
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1508693
United States
04/17/2012 11:49 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
theres been a 6.0 or greater everyday for about a week now. probably another one tomorrow.
Quagmire

User ID: 1339442
United States
04/17/2012 11:54 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
From the link below, I count 12 significant earthquakes within the last month, only one of which was below a 6.0. That's 12 earthquakes in 34 days, or an average of 2.8 days per significant earthquake. The 3 day window has an extremely high chance of landing a significant earthquake on any day of the year from that data.

The last I saw they were saying 7.0. I suppose you guys are dropping your magnitudes to make sure your theory stays true, eh?

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/17/2012 12:08 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
From the link below, I count 12 significant earthquakes within the last month, only one of which was below a 6.0. That's 12 earthquakes in 34 days, or an average of 2.8 days per significant earthquake. The 3 day window has an extremely high chance of landing a significant earthquake on any day of the year from that data.

The last I saw they were saying 7.0. I suppose you guys are dropping your magnitudes to make sure your theory stays true, eh?

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
 Quoting: Quagmire


The only reason I dropped it to 6.5+ was that is what this pattern indicated. I am thinking now I might not post patterns unless they point to a 7.0+ because you do have a good point on pure chance statistics.

There is another pattern for April 22 here Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 (Page 3)
... but it also points to a 6.5+ only
Vasile.Lupu

User ID: 1473602
Romania
04/17/2012 12:12 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
From the link below, I count 12 significant earthquakes within the last month, only one of which was below a 6.0. That's 12 earthquakes in 34 days, or an average of 2.8 days per significant earthquake. The 3 day window has an extremely high chance of landing a significant earthquake on any day of the year from that data.

The last I saw they were saying 7.0. I suppose you guys are dropping your magnitudes to make sure your theory stays true, eh?

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
 Quoting: Quagmire


The only reason I dropped it to 6.5+ was that is what this pattern indicated. I am thinking now I might not post patterns unless they point to a 7.0+ because you do have a good point on pure chance statistics.

There is another pattern for April 22 here Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 (Page 3)
... but it also points to a 6.5+ only
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


There were 2 EQ today over 6.5:
6.8 2012/04/17 07:13:50 -5.474 147.097 208.2 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
6.7 2012/04/17 03:50:17 -32.701 -71.484 37.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

I think this support your pattern ;)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14329597
Canada
04/17/2012 12:12 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
On April 12th I speculated weather we see a quake over 6.5 within a day of April 18 due to patterns of significant earthquakes -- related to the history of close approach dates of several potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA)...

Full prediction Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18

Today we got a 6.8 falling within the 3 day window. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

This asteroid/earthquake pattern recognition approach worked 3 out of 4 times. The other 3 forecasts calling for a 7.0+ quake:

Mar 20: HIT Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14
Apr 03: MISS Thread: 7+ Mag EARTHQUAKE due to asteroid near Earth on April 3rd
Apr 12: HIT Thread: HIT! April 11 earthquake in Sumatra was predicted on March 25

I do not know for sure why relatively small space rocks would cause this but just recognizing historic patterns. And I certain understand one must take into account probability statistics. I have to weed through dozens of NEO/PHA's to find one that fits this model of an object having a consistant pattern of significant earthquakes on all 3 or more of the most recent Earth close approach dates.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


Not sure what kind of tard is giving you shitty ratings but I gave you 5 *'s and a pin suggestion... keep up the good work bro
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/17/2012 12:13 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
theres been a 6.0 or greater everyday for about a week now. probably another one tomorrow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1508693


Yes, things are stirred up right now
Thread: alarming increase in volcano activity worldwide
Thread: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education!
Thread: Breaking Solar Doom, Giant Prominence Erupts today, pic's & video!
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/17/2012 12:24 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
On April 12th I speculated weather we see a quake over 6.5 within a day of April 18 due to patterns of significant earthquakes -- related to the history of close approach dates of several potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA)...

Full prediction Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18

Today we got a 6.8 falling within the 3 day window. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

This asteroid/earthquake pattern recognition approach worked 3 out of 4 times. The other 3 forecasts calling for a 7.0+ quake:

Mar 20: HIT Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14
Apr 03: MISS Thread: 7+ Mag EARTHQUAKE due to asteroid near Earth on April 3rd
Apr 12: HIT Thread: HIT! April 11 earthquake in Sumatra was predicted on March 25

I do not know for sure why relatively small space rocks would cause this but just recognizing historic patterns. And I certain understand one must take into account probability statistics. I have to weed through dozens of NEO/PHA's to find one that fits this model of an object having a consistant pattern of significant earthquakes on all 3 or more of the most recent Earth close approach dates.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


Not sure what kind of tard is giving you shitty ratings but I gave you 5 *'s and a pin suggestion... keep up the good work bro
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14329597


Thanks. My original thread averages 4 stars perhaps because many folks there were watching and waiting and eating popcorn with me Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18

New folks here on this update thread probably have not looked at the original message and quickly decide BS.

popcorn
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 967614
United States
04/17/2012 12:50 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
On April 12th I speculated weather we see a quake over 6.5 within a day of April 18 due to patterns of significant earthquakes -- related to the history of close approach dates of several potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA)...

Full prediction Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18

Today we got a 6.8 falling within the 3 day window. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

This asteroid/earthquake pattern recognition approach worked 3 out of 4 times. The other 3 forecasts calling for a 7.0+ quake:

Mar 20: HIT Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14
Apr 03: MISS Thread: 7+ Mag EARTHQUAKE due to asteroid near Earth on April 3rd
Apr 12: HIT Thread: HIT! April 11 earthquake in Sumatra was predicted on March 25

I do not know for sure why relatively small space rocks would cause this but just recognizing historic patterns. And I certain understand one must take into account probability statistics. I have to weed through dozens of NEO/PHA's to find one that fits this model of an object having a consistant pattern of significant earthquakes on all 3 or more of the most recent Earth close approach dates.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


Not sure what kind of tard is giving you shitty ratings but I gave you 5 *'s and a pin suggestion... keep up the good work bro
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14329597


Thanks. My original thread averages 4 stars perhaps because many folks there were watching and waiting and eating popcorn with me Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18

New folks here on this update thread probably have not looked at the original message and quickly decide BS.

popcorn
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


Pretty impressive work, OP. Thanks.
Sergman

User ID: 11883711
Canada
04/17/2012 02:26 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
I don't want to ruin your celebration but lets talk pure facts:

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Just for this month this is what we got:

Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012
Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012
Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.6 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012

11, 12, 14, 17. Plus minus one day we get:

10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18:
9 out of 17 days fall in your statistics which is 53%.
And if you count from April 10, then 100% chance to hit.

In March we had 7 significant EQ. +-1 days gives us 21 day: 70% to hit.

In February 6: 62%

In January 5: 48%

Overall 26 significant EQ from Jan 1. Giving plus/minus 1 day there are 78 days where your predictions hit. That means 72% to hit. So I was previously wrong saying it is around 30%. It is actually fat 72%. It is harder for your predictions not to hit the day. It is pure statistics. Please convince me otherwise.

Thread: List of false prophets and failed predictions. (Page 25)
:bdance:
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
04/17/2012 02:40 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12
I don't want to ruin your celebration but lets talk pure facts:

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Just for this month this is what we got:

Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012
Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012
Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012
Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012
Magnitude 8.6 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012

11, 12, 14, 17. Plus minus one day we get:

10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18:
9 out of 17 days fall in your statistics which is 53%.
And if you count from April 10, then 100% chance to hit.

In March we had 7 significant EQ. +-1 days gives us 21 day: 70% to hit.

In February 6: 62%

In January 5: 48%

Overall 26 significant EQ from Jan 1. Giving plus/minus 1 day there are 78 days where your predictions hit. That means 72% to hit. So I was previously wrong saying it is around 30%. It is actually fat 72%. It is harder for your predictions not to hit the day. It is pure statistics. Please convince me otherwise.

Thread: List of false prophets and failed predictions. (Page 25)
 Quoting: Sergman


I would use what are the chances of a quake hitting on any DATE. There were 15 6.5+ quake DATES thru April 16th
divided by 106 days in 2012
= one 6.5+ quake per 7 days
3 day window divided by 7 days = 43% just by chance

But I agree, 43% by pure chance is high.

News