HIT! April 17 earthquake was predicted on April 12 | |
pray_Italy User ID: 14577812 Italy 04/17/2012 11:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1508693 United States 04/17/2012 11:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Quagmire User ID: 1339442 United States 04/17/2012 11:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The last I saw they were saying 7.0. I suppose you guys are dropping your magnitudes to make sure your theory stays true, eh? [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] |
TheTruthWorker (OP) User ID: 1307920 United States 04/17/2012 12:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From the link below, I count 12 significant earthquakes within the last month, only one of which was below a 6.0. That's 12 earthquakes in 34 days, or an average of 2.8 days per significant earthquake. The 3 day window has an extremely high chance of landing a significant earthquake on any day of the year from that data. Quoting: Quagmire The last I saw they were saying 7.0. I suppose you guys are dropping your magnitudes to make sure your theory stays true, eh? [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] The only reason I dropped it to 6.5+ was that is what this pattern indicated. I am thinking now I might not post patterns unless they point to a 7.0+ because you do have a good point on pure chance statistics. There is another pattern for April 22 here Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 (Page 3) ... but it also points to a 6.5+ only |
Vasile.Lupu User ID: 1473602 Romania 04/17/2012 12:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From the link below, I count 12 significant earthquakes within the last month, only one of which was below a 6.0. That's 12 earthquakes in 34 days, or an average of 2.8 days per significant earthquake. The 3 day window has an extremely high chance of landing a significant earthquake on any day of the year from that data. Quoting: Quagmire The last I saw they were saying 7.0. I suppose you guys are dropping your magnitudes to make sure your theory stays true, eh? [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] The only reason I dropped it to 6.5+ was that is what this pattern indicated. I am thinking now I might not post patterns unless they point to a 7.0+ because you do have a good point on pure chance statistics. There is another pattern for April 22 here Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 (Page 3) ... but it also points to a 6.5+ only There were 2 EQ today over 6.5: 6.8 2012/04/17 07:13:50 -5.474 147.097 208.2 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 6.7 2012/04/17 03:50:17 -32.701 -71.484 37.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE I think this support your pattern ;) |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 14329597 Canada 04/17/2012 12:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | On April 12th I speculated weather we see a quake over 6.5 within a day of April 18 due to patterns of significant earthquakes -- related to the history of close approach dates of several potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA)... Quoting: TheTruthWorker Full prediction Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 Today we got a 6.8 falling within the 3 day window. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] This asteroid/earthquake pattern recognition approach worked 3 out of 4 times. The other 3 forecasts calling for a 7.0+ quake: Mar 20: HIT Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14 Apr 03: MISS Thread: 7+ Mag EARTHQUAKE due to asteroid near Earth on April 3rd Apr 12: HIT Thread: HIT! April 11 earthquake in Sumatra was predicted on March 25 I do not know for sure why relatively small space rocks would cause this but just recognizing historic patterns. And I certain understand one must take into account probability statistics. I have to weed through dozens of NEO/PHA's to find one that fits this model of an object having a consistant pattern of significant earthquakes on all 3 or more of the most recent Earth close approach dates. Not sure what kind of tard is giving you shitty ratings but I gave you 5 *'s and a pin suggestion... keep up the good work bro |
TheTruthWorker (OP) User ID: 1307920 United States 04/17/2012 12:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | theres been a 6.0 or greater everyday for about a week now. probably another one tomorrow. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1508693 Yes, things are stirred up right now Thread: alarming increase in volcano activity worldwide Thread: UPDATED 10/23/11: Earthquake activity from 1990-2011 charted. Pin for education! Thread: Breaking Solar Doom, Giant Prominence Erupts today, pic's & video! |
TheTruthWorker (OP) User ID: 1307920 United States 04/17/2012 12:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | On April 12th I speculated weather we see a quake over 6.5 within a day of April 18 due to patterns of significant earthquakes -- related to the history of close approach dates of several potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA)... Quoting: TheTruthWorker Full prediction Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 Today we got a 6.8 falling within the 3 day window. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] This asteroid/earthquake pattern recognition approach worked 3 out of 4 times. The other 3 forecasts calling for a 7.0+ quake: Mar 20: HIT Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14 Apr 03: MISS Thread: 7+ Mag EARTHQUAKE due to asteroid near Earth on April 3rd Apr 12: HIT Thread: HIT! April 11 earthquake in Sumatra was predicted on March 25 I do not know for sure why relatively small space rocks would cause this but just recognizing historic patterns. And I certain understand one must take into account probability statistics. I have to weed through dozens of NEO/PHA's to find one that fits this model of an object having a consistant pattern of significant earthquakes on all 3 or more of the most recent Earth close approach dates. Not sure what kind of tard is giving you shitty ratings but I gave you 5 *'s and a pin suggestion... keep up the good work bro Thanks. My original thread averages 4 stars perhaps because many folks there were watching and waiting and eating popcorn with me Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 New folks here on this update thread probably have not looked at the original message and quickly decide BS. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 967614 United States 04/17/2012 12:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | On April 12th I speculated weather we see a quake over 6.5 within a day of April 18 due to patterns of significant earthquakes -- related to the history of close approach dates of several potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA)... Quoting: TheTruthWorker Full prediction Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 Today we got a 6.8 falling within the 3 day window. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] This asteroid/earthquake pattern recognition approach worked 3 out of 4 times. The other 3 forecasts calling for a 7.0+ quake: Mar 20: HIT Thread: HIT! March 20 earthquake in Mexico was predicted on March 14 Apr 03: MISS Thread: 7+ Mag EARTHQUAKE due to asteroid near Earth on April 3rd Apr 12: HIT Thread: HIT! April 11 earthquake in Sumatra was predicted on March 25 I do not know for sure why relatively small space rocks would cause this but just recognizing historic patterns. And I certain understand one must take into account probability statistics. I have to weed through dozens of NEO/PHA's to find one that fits this model of an object having a consistant pattern of significant earthquakes on all 3 or more of the most recent Earth close approach dates. Not sure what kind of tard is giving you shitty ratings but I gave you 5 *'s and a pin suggestion... keep up the good work bro Thanks. My original thread averages 4 stars perhaps because many folks there were watching and waiting and eating popcorn with me Thread: EARTHQUAKE!!! due to asteroids near Earth on April 18 New folks here on this update thread probably have not looked at the original message and quickly decide BS. Pretty impressive work, OP. Thanks. |
Sergman User ID: 11883711 Canada 04/17/2012 02:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't want to ruin your celebration but lets talk pure facts: [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] Just for this month this is what we got: Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012 Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012 Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012 Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012 Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012 Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012 Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012 Magnitude 8.6 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012 11, 12, 14, 17. Plus minus one day we get: 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18: 9 out of 17 days fall in your statistics which is 53%. And if you count from April 10, then 100% chance to hit. In March we had 7 significant EQ. +-1 days gives us 21 day: 70% to hit. In February 6: 62% In January 5: 48% Overall 26 significant EQ from Jan 1. Giving plus/minus 1 day there are 78 days where your predictions hit. That means 72% to hit. So I was previously wrong saying it is around 30%. It is actually fat 72%. It is harder for your predictions not to hit the day. It is pure statistics. Please convince me otherwise. [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] :bdance: |
TheTruthWorker (OP) User ID: 1307920 United States 04/17/2012 02:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I don't want to ruin your celebration but lets talk pure facts: Quoting: Sergman [link to earthquake.usgs.gov] Just for this month this is what we got: Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012 Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012 Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012 Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012 Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012 Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012 Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012 Magnitude 8.6 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012 11, 12, 14, 17. Plus minus one day we get: 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18: 9 out of 17 days fall in your statistics which is 53%. And if you count from April 10, then 100% chance to hit. In March we had 7 significant EQ. +-1 days gives us 21 day: 70% to hit. In February 6: 62% In January 5: 48% Overall 26 significant EQ from Jan 1. Giving plus/minus 1 day there are 78 days where your predictions hit. That means 72% to hit. So I was previously wrong saying it is around 30%. It is actually fat 72%. It is harder for your predictions not to hit the day. It is pure statistics. Please convince me otherwise. [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] I would use what are the chances of a quake hitting on any DATE. There were 15 6.5+ quake DATES thru April 16th divided by 106 days in 2012 = one 6.5+ quake per 7 days 3 day window divided by 7 days = 43% just by chance But I agree, 43% by pure chance is high. |