Possible HISTORIC Weather Event starts Saturday. SEVERE - Deep South. BLIZZARD - West PA / NY States!!!

Very true

Another weekend tornado outbreak?!?

Thermal steering by atmospheric induction.

Kinda like spraying gasoline where you want the fire to go but not as direct.

Stimulation of a wave front buy "pre-bouncing" the trampoline if you get the metaphor.

A vigorous storm system is set to take aim for the Southeast and eventually the East Coast late this week.

A healthy upper-level disturbance will take a dive and dig deep over the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday and march east across the Deep South through the weekend.


[link to www.weather.com]


I live in South Fl. Getting ready just in case power goes out.

It should be noted that the 500mb map is showing wind speeds well above sea level ...

[link to www.lakeeriewx.com]

Ground/sea level winds would be better indicated in the 925mb mp ...

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

So what is expected to happen in the north ATL area? I'm no weather man so I don't fully understand

Johnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850
Severe storms possible by late afternoon/evening across parts of TX, OK, KS, MO, IA [link to 1.usa.gov]

Shits going down in the south on sunday

GFS is backing off on it:

WHILE THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADHERES TO THE OVERALL TRENDS
OF EARLIER MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NWRN GULF BASIN...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SWD SHIFT IS NOTED. IN
FACT THE LATEST GFS DIGS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND PREVENTS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SPREADING
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A BAND OF 50-60KT 500MB FLOW EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MORE THEN 5% PROBS.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Doom off?

Not sure quite yet. Will know more tomorrow.

A lot of uncertainty with the forecast; surprisingly this late.

This is the most dangerous since a lot of people could be caught off guard if severe weather breaks out.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING FROM THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS REGIME
...GENERALLY...DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
REGARD TO THE POTENTIALLY STRONG/DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
THAT MODELS INDICATE MAY TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH.
20/00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST AN INLAND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN ITS WARM
SECTOR.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

SREF has the trough amplifying and negative tilt.

With a lot of GOM moisture, this looks potentially deadly.

Doom may be back on.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

GFS moves the trough faster than SREF; however does show it amplifying.

A very dicey forecast.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
417 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]

Spot on about dicey. I've watched the forecast change more times than I can count this week.

Two days ago, 40% on Sat/Sun. Now, 80% Sat, 60% Sun.

The low pressure system was supposed to go up into the panhandle, and now our local weather has it going right over us (central west coast).

EDIT to say the models have it coming in over our area, then an almost 90 degree turn up toward Jax.

Last Edited by cRoSS FiRe on 04/20/2012 09:45 AM

Severe storms possible this afternoon/evening in south and southeast Texas including Houston [link to 1.usa.gov]

It will have strong winds and rain? Big cities on line to it?

HISTORIC STORM TO POSSIBLY TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK

GFS 84hrs: Showing Blizzard in PA and NY, with 978mb low!

[link to firsthandweather.com]

Holy Crap!!

[link to firsthandweather.com]

18" of Snow possible, Buffalo to Pittsburgh!!!!


[link to p.twimg.com]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 04/20/2012 02:29 PM

Latest NAM Snow Depth Forecast

[link to policlimate.com]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012


THE GFS TILTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEGATIVELY THE MOST WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH NEGATIVE TROUGH ALOFT.
WITH THE GFS SCENARIO MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD
QUICKER AND INTERACT WITH A NOW STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTH EAST
AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION MUCH QUICKER...BUT
CONSIDERING THE REMAINING OPERATION MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS...WILL CHOOSE TO KEEP POPS TO A SLIGHT
CHC...WITH THE DAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT MOISTURE STREAMING
WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD SPIRALING COASTAL LOW WILL SEND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE GFS BRINGS A TROWAL INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MAIN SFC LOW STARTING TO TRACK INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC. IF THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT FARTHER WESTWARD WHERE COLD AIR
WILL WRAP AROUND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MIX IN WITH THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EVOLVING COMPLEX PATTERN LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO
GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH
A WIDE DISPARITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM RUN TO RUN AND
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS... INCLUDING
THE LATEST 00Z RUN DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRACKING IT TOWARDS THE CATSKILLS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THIS IS A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF WHICH
ALSO DISPLAYED THIS TRACK WITH THE FORMER 12Z RUN. HOWEVER THE 00Z
CANADIAN MAINTAINS A FARTHER EASTWARD TRACK AND DRIVES THE SFC LOW
THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW HAVE
ESSENTIALLY LEFT CONTINUITY IN PLACE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW IN WESTERN NY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND LIKELY FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NY FOLLOWING AN AVERAGE TRACK OF ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE. WILL SLOW THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION SOME AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CUTTING OFF...THE SFC LOW
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST A LITTLE LONGER. THE
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION IS EXTREME AND NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORED BY EAST
COAST STORM CLIMATOLOGY BUT WITH MORE OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS ALSO
DISPLAYING A SIMILAR TRACK THIS UNUSUAL FAR INLAND SFC LOW TRACK
MAY PROVE TRUE. STAY TUNED.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]

South Florida and much of the rest of the state could be roughed up by stormy weather on Saturday and Sunday, the National Weather Service in Miami said.

Some of the storms could be severe, said meteorologist Robert Molleda. “There is definitely that potential,” he said.

[link to www.sun-sentinel.com]

Yes it is Natasha77! I was out that way last weekend for the Dark Sky Festival in Harmony, FL. It was too cloudy though to see through the many awesome telescopes they had set up for all of us to use. It was still great to get to see the very large and expensive telescopes up close and personal!

Anyway, stay safe and see you around on GLP!