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Ron Paul Picks Up Missouri Delegates After Caucus Chairman Arrested For Strong Arm Tactics

 
ADEND

User ID: 1358673
United States
04/26/2012 08:25 PM
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Re: Ron Paul Picks Up Missouri Delegates After Caucus Chairman Arrested For Strong Arm Tactics
...


That doesn't seem right. Paul is well on his way to winning the 5 states he needs to push things to brokered. Between all non-Romney candidates for the first vote plus the unpledged well over the 40% needed to stop Romney are available.
 Quoting: ADEND


Romney needs 1144. He has 724 pledged or bound. He needs 420 more to clinch it.

There are 655 delegates that are unconfirmed, pledged to santorum and Gingrich. For the sake of argument let's give all of those to Paul. That puts him at 709 to romneys 724.

So it's 709 to 724. There are 851 delegates left. With those conditioms Romney needs 49 percent of the 851 to clinch. Paul needs 51.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 981616


At Tampa a 60% majority is required for the "clenching".
 Quoting: ADEND


A candidate needs 1144 to get the republican nomination. I explained pretty clearly that every non Romney delegate has to go to Paul, and them Paul has to win 51 percent of the remaining delegates to stop Romney fr
Getting 1144.

If you can't admit that it's unrealistic to expect 100 percent of the other
Delegates to go to Paul, or for Paul to win 51 percent of the remaining delegates I dunno what to tell you. There's being hopeful and there's living in a fairy tale.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 981616


[link to www.dailypaul.com]

The key excerpt from above...

Take Heart! Romney needs to reach 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. Even if Ron Paul's campaign doesn't achieve stronger electoral success in the remaining primaries, it will probably remain statistically uncertain if Romney had reached the magic number come August. The future of our country rests on that close of a margin. And Ron Paul's delegate strategy hinges on Romney not getting to 1,144. The exaggerated numbers from the AP/NYTimes has Romney with 844 delegates. TheGreenPapers.com however shows Romney with a "hard" delegate count of 724. It is not out of the question to believe that Romney might miss the mark.

So, no, not clenched.

Further, I think the RNC members who account for 123 of the delegates are primarily pledged to Romney but can switch to Paul at the convention when they realize he is the future of the party (or then can decide it is better to kill the party off and vote for Romney).

Of course, you may be right, Romney may clench. The sooner the better if it is to happen, that will give me more time to find the best third party candidate and start working on building their party.
ADEND

User ID: 1358673
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04/26/2012 08:36 PM
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Re: Ron Paul Picks Up Missouri Delegates After Caucus Chairman Arrested For Strong Arm Tactics
So, if Gingrich and Santorum do not exit, but only suspend. And if the unpledged delegates go to Paul he will keep Romney from clenching if he and the suspended candidates can win 51% of the remaining delegates between them?

Ok, I see now. Considering Santorum and Gingrich are each one significant financial supporter away from entering the race nothing has been decided yet.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 981616
United States
04/26/2012 08:38 PM
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Re: Ron Paul Picks Up Missouri Delegates After Caucus Chairman Arrested For Strong Arm Tactics
...


Romney needs 1144. He has 724 pledged or bound. He needs 420 more to clinch it.

There are 655 delegates that are unconfirmed, pledged to santorum and Gingrich. For the sake of argument let's give all of those to Paul. That puts him at 709 to romneys 724.

So it's 709 to 724. There are 851 delegates left. With those conditioms Romney needs 49 percent of the 851 to clinch. Paul needs 51.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 981616


At Tampa a 60% majority is required for the "clenching".
 Quoting: ADEND


A candidate needs 1144 to get the republican nomination. I explained pretty clearly that every non Romney delegate has to go to Paul, and them Paul has to win 51 percent of the remaining delegates to stop Romney fr
Getting 1144.

If you can't admit that it's unrealistic to expect 100 percent of the other
Delegates to go to Paul, or for Paul to win 51 percent of the remaining delegates I dunno what to tell you. There's being hopeful and there's living in a fairy tale.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 981616


[link to www.dailypaul.com]

The key excerpt from above...

Take Heart! Romney needs to reach 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. Even if Ron Paul's campaign doesn't achieve stronger electoral success in the remaining primaries, it will probably remain statistically uncertain if Romney had reached the magic number come August. The future of our country rests on that close of a margin. And Ron Paul's delegate strategy hinges on Romney not getting to 1,144. The exaggerated numbers from the AP/NYTimes has Romney with 844 delegates. TheGreenPapers.com however shows Romney with a "hard" delegate count of 724. It is not out of the question to believe that Romney might miss the mark.

So, no, not clenched.

Further, I think the RNC members who account for 123 of the delegates are primarily pledged to Romney but can switch to Paul at the convention when they realize he is the future of the party (or then can decide it is better to kill the party off and vote for Romney).

Of course, you may be right, Romney may clench. The sooner the better if it is to happen, that will give me more time to find the best third party candidate and start working on building their party.
 Quoting: ADEND


Of course he "could" not get the required number but that would require Paul to perform far better in the last half of the delegate races than he did in the first and for Romney to perform far worse.

To keep Romney from getting the 1144 needed for nomination Paul has to win 51 percent of the remaining delegates. If you use funny Paul math and give him 300 delegates currently his track record is still around 30 percent. Even with those exaggerated numbers he has to perform almost twice as well as he has.
ALEC and AIPAC Exposed
User ID: 1674019
United States
04/30/2012 04:00 PM
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Re: Ron Paul Picks Up Missouri Delegates After Caucus Chairman Arrested For Strong Arm Tactics
:ha2:
 Quoting: JimBomB
............... LUCIFER ROMNEY , Eric Cantor , Paul Ryan , Andrew Adler , AmonGoeth Ted Nugent , Ed Nekritz , Fran Fragos , Tony PolPot Dalsimer and the TEFLON LIKUD are sucking the blood and treasure out of the USA and giving it to the LIKUD FIFTH COLUMN at JINSA .........see THE GOLDSTONE REPORT .
 Quoting: Pinochio ROMNEY 1674019
................ Romney's GOP is a bridge back to 1929 , with its obsession with repealing the NEW DEAL and deregulating the MIKE RAPHAN BANKSTERS , mortgage fraudsters and Sayanim Fifth Column of Jonathan Pollard clones and Right Wing Clowns ........... we can't flatter the fascists by calling them ''conservatives'' .... RON PAUL is an AMERICAN ........ Mitt Romney , Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor are QUISLINGS and traitors .

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