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Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!

 
Anonymous Coward
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04/29/2012 04:53 PM
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Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Ron Paul is at 326-350 delegates right now!

I base my delegate research off the assumption that Ron Paul will continue to do well in the ongoing caucus state conventions:



I've got Ron Paul projected at 326-350 delegates.


I've got Mitt Romney projected at 600-610 delegates.



There are 737 delegates remaining. Romney needs 541 of those to win. Which means, Ron Paul needs 197 of those delegates to block an automatic bid for Romney.


Paul should do well in the non-allocating caucuses of Nebraska and Montana. Paul should be able to pull about 45-55 delegates from there. Which means, of the remaining states, Paul would need 147 (give or take) delegates to block an automatic Romney nomination.



Looking at the rest of the states, and how the rest are primaries (since I've already accounted for the two remaining caucuses), the chances aren't great that Ron Paul could poll high enough in those primaries to take 147 delegates.

 In fact, if Ron Paul's campaign continues with their current strategy they've been using for the entire election process, Romney will win the remaining primaries.

This is why I think they should now go "all-in" on Texas and California. The campaign has been operating under a safe and sure philosophy -- which is why it's at in the place it is now. 

However, it's the 4th quarter with 2:00 minutes remaining. And we're down by six points. We can't continue going down the field and hitting the field goal. We now have to air it out. While that's not our strength, it's now or never.



Texas is proportional and you need to hit it hard, as there's 155 delegates up for grab. The campaign has $1.5 million cash on hand and can get get more by just asking. Paul's realistic goal needs to be winning Texas. Texans love their heritage, and Paul being a Texan is a plus there -- which is why I like his latest Texas ad. But just like most people, Texans also follow the herd. Another ad showing the wins in Iowa, Minnesota, Louisiana, Washington, Maine, and Alaska (soon to be more)...and show them that they're being mislead...throw in the Warren G. Harding reference...brokered convention...let people know that Ron Paul does have a shot. Most people won't vote for Paul if they think there vote will be wasted. This is my opinion from interacting with other voters. It's an unfortunate truth. They must convey the message that a vote will not be wasted to Texans.



California is a winner take all. Obviously more difficult. I wouldn't advice dumping too many resources here, as the reward could be nothing. However, I would definitely test the water at least, and if there's any optimism, I wouldn't be hesitant to get active in that state. Remember, we're not in position to run the ball on 3rd and 10 and settle for a field goal anymore.



Keep with the caucus strategy, but the strategy needs to be changed in regards to California and Texas. Those are the key. If Paul wins one of those, it will be the nail in the coffin for a brokered convention -- especially California.

 It's time to go all in. If Ron Paul doesn't win California or Texas...Ron Paul will NOT get enough delegates and Romney will win the nomination.
Anonymous Coward
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04/29/2012 05:14 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Well then, I guess it's all over for Paul. He'll never win California or Texas. These two states are bought off and paid off. Not a chance.

violin
Apocalypse Troll
Trollicus Apocalyptus

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04/29/2012 05:19 PM

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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
What numbers are you looking at FFS?

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]
attxflag
"Honor the Texas flag; I pledge allegiance to thee, Texas, one state under God, one and indivisible."

[link to www.statutes.legis.state.tx.us]
Anonymous Coward
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04/29/2012 05:23 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Delegates win the nomination, not state wins.
Anonymous Coward
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04/29/2012 05:24 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Delegates win the nomination, not state wins.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12886926


OP has no clue, OP watches MSNBC.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/29/2012 06:00 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
What numbers are you looking at FFS?

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]
 Quoting: Apocalypse Troll



Delegates win the nomination, not state wins.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12886926


OP has no clue, OP watches MSNBC.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15271254


These are my own numbers, since you can't find real Ron Paul delegate totals anywhere. Including MSNBC! :b

MSM puts Ron Paul at a projected total of 50-80 delegates -- pending who you look at. This is false, which is why I took my time to get the real totals.

Ron Paul is going to dominate in every caucus. The state caucuses that have already begun have proven that -- Iowa; Minnesota; Washington; Alaska; Louisiana; Maine. Colorado and Nevada were the only caucus states in my research where Paul is in danger of not getting a large portion of delegates.

When you run the real numbers, AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, Ron Paul has 326-350 delegates.

I also crunched Romney's figures. He's at 600-610.

Because the system is too corrupt, Paul won't beat Romney in the remaining primaries. Unfortunately Paul only has a shot when the people can control the voting process in caucuses.

The only remaining caucuses hold 50 delegates. My projections show Paul needs 197 to block an automatic nomination from Romney. That's why Paul needs to go all in with the Texas primary. Even if Paul lost but lost small, he'd be given a large portion. While losing Texas by small would still be a blow, it might be enough to pick up a few more delegates elsewhere to block Romney.

If Paul gets a brokered convention he'll be the nominee.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/29/2012 06:02 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
What numbers are you looking at FFS?

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]
 Quoting: Apocalypse Troll



Delegates win the nomination, not state wins.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12886926


OP has no clue, OP watches MSNBC.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15271254


These are my own numbers, since you can't find real Ron Paul delegate totals anywhere. Including MSNBC! :b

MSM puts Ron Paul at a projected total of 50-80 delegates -- pending who you look at. This is false, which is why I took my time to get the real totals.

Ron Paul is going to dominate in every caucus. The state caucuses that have already begun have proven that -- Iowa; Minnesota; Washington; Alaska; Louisiana; Maine. Colorado and Nevada were the only caucus states in my research where Paul is in danger of not getting a large portion of delegates.

When you run the real numbers, AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, Ron Paul has 326-350 delegates.

I also crunched Romney's figures. He's at 600-610.

Because the system is too corrupt, Paul won't beat Romney in the remaining primaries. Unfortunately Paul only has a shot when the people can control the voting process in caucuses.

The only remaining caucuses hold 50 delegates. My projections show Paul needs 197 to block an automatic nomination from Romney. That's why Paul needs to go all in with the Texas primary. Even if Paul lost but lost small, he'd be given a large portion. While losing Texas by small would still be a blow, it might be enough to pick up a few more delegates elsewhere to block Romney.

If Paul gets a brokered convention he'll be the nominee.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271389


This is a summary of my first post, so read it, it explains why Paul needs to win Texas. I've been a Ron Paul supporter since 2007 which is why I spent hours crunching these numbers. Paul needs a brokered convention or he's not going to be the nominee.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/29/2012 06:03 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
We need the people of Texas to get out and vote on May 29th!
Burt Gummer

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04/29/2012 06:03 PM

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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
This is a summary of my first post, so read it, it explains why Paul needs to win Texas. I've been a Ron Paul supporter since 2007 which is why I spent hours crunching these numbers. Paul needs a brokered convention or he's not going to be the nominee.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271389


Ya think???

Derp! tard
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/29/2012 06:11 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
This is a summary of my first post, so read it, it explains why Paul needs to win Texas. I've been a Ron Paul supporter since 2007 which is why I spent hours crunching these numbers. Paul needs a brokered convention or he's not going to be the nominee.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271389


Ya think???

Derp! tard
 Quoting: Burt Gummer


Yeah, and he's not going to get a brokered convention if Romney wins both Texas and California.
Anonymous Coward
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04/29/2012 06:12 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
The fanatical Paul zealots have really scared me, their blind worship has gone beyond rational at this point. I like Paul and would vote for him under normal circumstances, but not now, not anymore. I would have to vote anyone but Paul at this point and hope the scotus and house can keep the damage of the next 4 years minimal
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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04/29/2012 06:16 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
The fanatical Paul zealots have really scared me, their blind worship has gone beyond rational at this point. I like Paul and would vote for him under normal circumstances, but not now, not anymore. I would have to vote anyone but Paul at this point and hope the scotus and house can keep the damage of the next 4 years minimal
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1086642


What's normal circumstances? The "choice" of either Cookie Cutter President A or Cookie Cutter President B?

To get a realistic, libertarian, and man of the people in office...can't be done under normal circumstances.
Anonymous Coward
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04/29/2012 06:22 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
I am just thankful this will be over soon and am looking forward to a Romney Presidency
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 04:48 AM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Don't look forward to a Romney presidency, my poor, deluded friend: if Ron Paul is not nominated, we will see four more years of Obama.
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 04:58 AM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Most accurate delegate totals so far:

Ron Paul -- 391 to 518

Mitt Romney -- 601 to 661




Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 08:03 AM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
As much as I would like to see this, it is not going to happen. Everyone I have talked to has said they would vote for Ron Paul if nominated. So 'they' will not let that happen. Obama will be our President for the next four years, IMHO
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 08:12 AM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Ron Paul is not going to win the Republican nominee if he wins them anyways.. its over.. Romney is gona get the nominee.. Thank god too.. Puting Ron Paul in it would be like puts a bull with tits on it.. WORTHLESS
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 12:05 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
At this point, Ron Paul winning the nomination at a brokered convention by delegates while Romney has such a massive advantage in number of general population votes around the country would not only solidify another 4 years of Obama, but it would be the death nail in our republic. It would make the 2000 election look like child's play.

Both parties would put aside differences on one issue, i.e. Constitutional Ammendment to remove the Electoral College and both parties would redefine the delegate system for primaries to be sure it never happened again.

At this point, RP willing would be a total disaster.
Joule Thief

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04/30/2012 12:12 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
The fanatical Paul zealots have really scared me, their blind worship has gone beyond rational at this point. I like Paul and would vote for him under normal circumstances, but not now, not anymore. I would have to vote anyone but Paul at this point and hope the scotus and house can keep the damage of the next 4 years minimal
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1086642


What's normal circumstances? The "choice" of either Cookie Cutter President A or Cookie Cutter President B?

To get a realistic, libertarian, and man of the people in office...can't be done under normal circumstances.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271389


That part of AC's post stood out. FEAR. Like anything in this country is rational anymore, there's no logic anywhere. People flock to Paul for one reason... he has common sense and isn't afraid to say hard truth. He has enough respect not to lie to himself or to the public. He scares them because he's honest. It says a lot about this Bizarro World we're living in, I think. Vote for him, don't vote for him, but don't listen to his supporters, listen to the man himself. There's a lot of us who do who don't qualify as skerry Paulbottards. Don't let the zealots put you off, they're everywhere in every group.
"Chaos exists as a pool of possibilities that order draws from and organizes according to creative desire. Some things get tossed down the memory hole only to reemerge later when the need arises. Neither chaos nor order holds a monopoly on creation and destruction, creative or destructive chaos exists as does creative and destructive order." - ME! Yeah, Bea :) snoocherdoodle@gmail.com
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 05:10 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
LET THIS BE AN OFFICIAL COMPLAINT TO THE ELECTION ETHICS COMMISSION: MITT ROMNEY'S SUPPORTERS ARE ENGAGING IN VOTE FRAUD
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 05:17 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
What numbers are you looking at FFS?

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]
 Quoting: Apocalypse Troll



Delegates win the nomination, not state wins.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12886926


OP has no clue, OP watches MSNBC.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15271254


These are my own numbers, since you can't find real Ron Paul delegate totals anywhere. Including MSNBC! :b

MSM puts Ron Paul at a projected total of 50-80 delegates -- pending who you look at. This is false, which is why I took my time to get the real totals.

Ron Paul is going to dominate in every caucus. The state caucuses that have already begun have proven that -- Iowa; Minnesota; Washington; Alaska; Louisiana; Maine. Colorado and Nevada were the only caucus states in my research where Paul is in danger of not getting a large portion of delegates.

When you run the real numbers, AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, Ron Paul has 326-350 delegates.

I also crunched Romney's figures. He's at 600-610.

Because the system is too corrupt, Paul won't beat Romney in the remaining primaries. Unfortunately Paul only has a shot when the people can control the voting process in caucuses.

The only remaining caucuses hold 50 delegates. My projections show Paul needs 197 to block an automatic nomination from Romney. That's why Paul needs to go all in with the Texas primary. Even if Paul lost but lost small, he'd be given a large portion. While losing Texas by small would still be a blow, it might be enough to pick up a few more delegates elsewhere to block Romney.

If Paul gets a brokered convention he'll be the nominee.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1271389


Actually some sources are indicating that Ron paul may also take the majority of the delegates from iowa and washingotn, though I am unsure if these are accurate reports.
Burt Gummer

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04/30/2012 05:33 PM

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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
LET THIS BE AN OFFICIAL COMPLAINT TO THE ELECTION ETHICS COMMISSION: MITT ROMNEY'S SUPPORTERS ARE ENGAGING IN VOTE FRAUD
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15292967


You know what......at this point I say GOOD.

Why???


You need to fight fire with fire to win this election.
You KNOW Obama and his ACORN nuts are going to be doing it. grnrolleyes

acornvotes

Last Edited by Useless Cookie Eater on 04/30/2012 05:33 PM
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 05:40 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
The fanatical Paul zealots have really scared me, their blind worship has gone beyond rational at this point. I like Paul and would vote for him under normal circumstances, but not now, not anymore. I would have to vote anyone but Paul at this point and hope the scotus and house can keep the damage of the next 4 years minimal
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1086642


Honestly. FUCK OFF.

If you don't vote for the man based on HIM and not his supporters you are nothing but a total dickhead.
Anonymous Coward
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04/30/2012 05:40 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
bsflag he barely has 80 delegates, hope you idiots ask him for your donations back.
Critical Limit
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05/01/2012 06:51 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Fox is starting to admit Ron Paul's real delegate counts. him only having 80 delegates is what's BS. We all shouldn't have to do the research for you.
smokahontas

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05/01/2012 06:53 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Let me belay your worries.... Ron Paul will NOT be the republican Nominee
"I may not agree with what you say, but I would defend to the death your right to say it." Voltaire

"Facts do not cease to exist just because they are ignored." Aldous Huxley
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2012 06:56 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
MASSIVE DISSINFORMATION! SPREAD THE WORD! PAUL IS GOING TO TAKE IT LIKE WARREN HARDING DID!



MSM MSNBC 7 DAYS AGO REVEALS PAUL LIKELY TO UPSET ROMNEY WITH BROKERED CON. AFTER ALL!!!
MSM has ben trying to avoid this story, but it got out....Paul is looking like he WILL get the nomination. MSM WORDS! Proof links here:

PLEASE GO HERE:

[link to www.imackgroup.com]

AND GO HERE

[link to www.whiteoutpress.com]


AND THEN SPREAD THE WORD VIRAL AND BUMP THESE LINKS TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW.....

We are not dead yet!!!! Save America one email at A TIME!
Everyone is missing
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05/09/2012 12:07 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
the big picture here. Open your eyes. A brokered convention stacked with Paul supporters would be able to do much much more than just nominate Paul. They could vote to suspend the rules and sweep from power the entire senior national party leadership and replace the entire RNC with Paul supporters!

The implications of this go much much further than the question of a Paul nomination or even a Paul presidency. This is nothing less than an opportunity for the grass roots to reclaim control of the party. Imagine the implications for 2014 and 2016 of an RNC dominated by Paul supporters... These folks would be in a position to funnel money and support to real patriots instead of CFR approved shills. They would be in a position to deny party support to those pols who have long ago sold out.

Let's stop thinking small here...a real revolution is in the offing if Paul can pull this off. This is why you should expect the party leadership to do everything in their power to prevent these pro-Paul delegates from being seated in August.
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 12:14 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Romney is a tool. RNC, this dude would sink you lower than the Dems., if that is even possible.
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 12:14 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
Time to take his delegates and form a new party.
Anonymous Coward
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05/09/2012 12:17 PM
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Re: Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
the big picture here. Open your eyes. A brokered convention stacked with Paul supporters would be able to do much much more than just nominate Paul. They could vote to suspend the rules and sweep from power the entire senior national party leadership and replace the entire RNC with Paul supporters!

The implications of this go much much further than the question of a Paul nomination or even a Paul presidency. This is nothing less than an opportunity for the grass roots to reclaim control of the party. Imagine the implications for 2014 and 2016 of an RNC dominated by Paul supporters... These folks would be in a position to funnel money and support to real patriots instead of CFR approved shills. They would be in a position to deny party support to those pols who have long ago sold out.

Let's stop thinking small here...a real revolution is in the offing if Paul can pull this off. This is why you should expect the party leadership to do everything in their power to prevent these pro-Paul delegates from being seated in August.
 Quoting: Everyone is missing 12342850


clappa

Brilliant !!! Can they really do that ? That's like a dream come true. I would laugh my a** off if they could do that.

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