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WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 03:36 AM
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Volcanic Alert Bulletin TON-2012/28 - Tongariro Volcano

[link to info.geonet.org.nz]

21 November 2012, 5:30 pm - Eruption update: activity decreased; Volcanic Alert Level is at Level 2; Aviation Colour Code changed to Orange
This afternoon’s small eruption at Upper Te Maari Crater appears to be over for now, GNS Science said today.

GNS Science has now decreased the Aviation Colour Code from Red to Orange signalling that ash is no longer being erupted. However, minor eruptive activity continues and the Volcanic Alert Level remains at 2.

The eruption occurred from the Upper Te Maari crater, in the same area that erupted on 6 August this year. Today’s eruption happened at 1:25 pm and lasted for less than 5 minutes although local earthquake activity continued for about 15 minutes. The eruption appears to have ceased for now.

GNS Science staff Nico Fournier, Agnes Mazot and Craig Miller witnessed the eruption from a few kilometres away. “We didn’t hear anything but could suddenly see an ominous dark grey cloud of ash drifting towards us” said Dr Fournier. The eruption was also seen by trampers walking on the Tongariro Crossing. There are no reports of injury.

Ash erupted during the first few minutes reached 3 km to 4 km height and was clearly seen from Taupo. A light dusting of ash fell across part of State Highway 46 and north-east towards Turangi but no more ash has been reported this afternoon as the gas and steam cloud drifts towards the south east. Ash is being collected this afternoon and will be analysed at Massey University to assess potential human and animal health effects. Results are expected in the next few days.

Today’s eruption did not produce any directed rock blasts or debris flows like those made by the August eruption.

Background
This afternoon’s eruption occurred without any measured precursory changes and this reinforces the unpredictable nature of volcanoes. We cannot say what will happen next at Tongariro but the scenario considered most likely, based on the August 2012 eruption and the description of late 1890s eruptions, is that we could expect another eruption of similar size at any time during the next few weeks. Eruptions are not expected to escalate in size. Aviation Colour Codes are based on four colours and are intended for quick reference only in the international civil aviation community. Code Orange indicates that a volcanic eruption is underway but with little or no ash being produced.

The Volcanic Alert Level ranges from 0 to 5 and defines the current status at a volcano. Level 2 indicates that a minor eruption has occurred.

Brad Scott, Nico Fournier
Volcanologists
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 03:41 AM
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Tongariro Eruption Footage

[link to info.geonet.org.nz]
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11/21/2012 04:49 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Large quake probability continues to drop

[link to www.stuff.co.nz]

The probability of a large aftershock somewhere in the central Canterbury earthquake zone continues to drop as a result of lower seismic activity in recent months.

In GNS Science's updated calculations released today, the probability of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 shake in the next 12 months is 69 per cent, compared with 82 per cent in January.

Over the same period there is a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 quake in the aftershock zone, which runs from the foothills in the west to Pegasus Bay in the east and from Rangiora in the north to Tai Tapu in the south.
That has fallen from a 39 per cent probability in January.

The chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 aftershock is now 9 per cent, down from 13 per cent in January, while there is only a 2 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9 event in the next year, down from 4 per cent at the start of the year.

GNS Science says the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher quake in the next year remains unchanged at 1 per cent.
 Quoting: Tauranga


This is a perfect example of meaningless bullshit. They 'calculate' the possibility of new quakes by the prevalence of the past ones - as if that's the only guide they need.

If it worked that way then the original big ones that hit ChCh shouldn't have occurred - but they did.

Meaningless rubbish.
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:28 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Large quake probability continues to drop

[link to www.stuff.co.nz]

The probability of a large aftershock somewhere in the central Canterbury earthquake zone continues to drop as a result of lower seismic activity in recent months.

In GNS Science's updated calculations released today, the probability of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 shake in the next 12 months is 69 per cent, compared with 82 per cent in January.

Over the same period there is a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 quake in the aftershock zone, which runs from the foothills in the west to Pegasus Bay in the east and from Rangiora in the north to Tai Tapu in the south.
That has fallen from a 39 per cent probability in January.

The chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 aftershock is now 9 per cent, down from 13 per cent in January, while there is only a 2 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9 event in the next year, down from 4 per cent at the start of the year.

GNS Science says the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher quake in the next year remains unchanged at 1 per cent.
 Quoting: Tauranga


This is a perfect example of meaningless bullshit. They 'calculate' the possibility of new quakes by the prevalence of the past ones - as if that's the only guide they need.

If it worked that way then the original big ones that hit ChCh shouldn't have occurred - but they did.

Meaningless rubbish.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28089232


i agree, AC

bullshit seems to be their middle name...
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:34 PM
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Panic on Mt Tongariro, as New Zealand volcano erupts again

[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

November 21, 2012 – NEW ZEALAND – A teacher who was on Mt Tongariro with a group of 90 students has captured the ‘‘absolutely spectacular’’ eruption of the volcano on video. GNS Science confirmed the eruption, at the Te Maari crater, happened shortly after 1.20pm. It is the second eruption on the mountain this year; an eruption on August 6 was the first on Tongariro for more than 100 years. Tamatea Intermediate teacher Lomi Schaumkel said they were near the Katetahi hot springs when eruption began. “We were right up there next to it. It was just amazing. It was pretty scary from where we were and it just looked absolutely spectacular, the ash that came out. It really did look like one of those atom bomb explosions, and it made a rumbling sound.’’ There were 90 students, six parents and four teachers in the group. ‘‘Some panicked, some didn’t. Everyone came down safely and it was great.” The group was about 1 km away from the eruption, Schaumkel said. “We saw all these tourists running away from it. We didn’t stick around long.” A further 20 Year 8 pupils from Gulf Harbour School in Whangaparoa were making their way off the track with parents and guides after being just 750m from where the crater erupted. Two bus drivers from Nimon and Sons, who took the Napier children to the mountain, had reported back to their base that they could see an ash plume 2km high, a spokesman said. Department of Conservation (DOC) area manager Jonathan Maxwell said 30 to 50 people were being evacuated from the Tongariro Crossing track. No injuries had been reported but the crossing had been closed. Today’s eruption lasted for about five minutes. GNS has updated the alert on Tongariro to level 2, meaning there is “minor eruptive activity.” The aviation color code has been lifted to red, meaning there is “significant emission of ash” into the atmosphere. In this case, the rebel advance has disrupted all the humanitarian work that has been underway as aid workers have been forced to flee. Autesserre said there were also reports of looting by the Congolese government forces as they evacuated Goma, which may in part explain why thousands of people welcomed the rebel troops. –Stuff

wtf lols, hilarious!
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:47 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
it is a great relief to see that the watchers site is back up, and no longer showing a 404...

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
a breathtakingly beautiful photo of tongariro, covered with snow

Mount Tongariro erupts again with black plume of ash

Mt. Tongariro, New Zealand, erupted today, November 21, 2012 around 1:20 pm local time and lasted for five minutes. Reports say black plume of ash was sent several kilometers up in the sky. Hikers, including schoolchildren were evacuated. Residents in the Waikato, Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne and Bay of Plenty areas are advised to stay indoor. Spot of eruption was Te Maari Crater on mountain’s western side. GNS Science duty volcanologist Nico Fournier said,

“There was one eruption, essentially one explosion, and it was not sustained. It spewed some ash possibly a couple of kilometres up the air. The ash is now drifting to the east-southeast.”

As per Geonet, volcanic alert level has been raised to 2 and aviation alert code changed to Orange. Previous eruption was in August this year at upper Te Maari crater(s) on northern side of the volcano.

A brief of history of volcano by Global volcanism program:

Tongariro is a large andesitic volcanic massif, located immediately NE of Ruapehu volcano, that is composed of more than a dozen composite cones constructed over a period of 275,000 years. Vents along a NE-trending zone extending from Saddle Cone (below Ruapehu volcano) to Te Mari crater (including vents at the present-day location of Ngauruhoe) were active during a several hundred year long period around 10,000 years ago, producing the largest known eruptions at the Tongariro complex during the Holocene.

Satellite view of Mt. Tongariro. Credits: NASA/EarthObservatory
[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 05:55 PM
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New brief eruption from Tongariro volcano, New Zealand

[link to www.volcanodiscovery.com]

A brief eruption occurred at Te Maari Craters, Tongariro at approximately 13:25 pm local time today (Wednesday, 21 November 2012).
The eruption occurred from the Upper Te Maari crater, in the same area that erupted on 6 August this year. Today’s eruption lasted for less than 5 minutes although local earthquake activity continued for about 15 minutes. The eruption appears to have ceased for now, GeoNet writes.
GNS Science staff Nico Fournier, Agnes Mazot and Craig Miller witnessed the eruption from a few kilometres away. “We didn’t hear anything but could suddenly see an ominous dark grey cloud of ash drifting towards us” said Dr Fournier. The eruption was also seen by trampers walking on the Tongariro Crossing. There are no reports of injury.

Ash erupted during the first few minutes reached 3 km to 4 km height and was clearly seen from Taupo. A light dusting of ash fell across part of State Highway 46 and north-east towards Turangi but no more ash has been reported this afternoon as the gas and steam cloud drifts towards the south east. Ash is being collected this afternoon and will be analysed at Massey University to assess potential human and animal health effects. Results are expected in the next few days. (GeoNet)
All news about: Tongariro volcano
Information about: Tongariro volcano
---
Links / Sources:
Volcanic Alert Bulletin TON-2012/28 - Tongariro Volcano (GeoNet)
Back to news / to previous page
Previous news
Tongariro volcano (New Zealand): field report from 5 Nov and measurements - elevated degassing
Thursday, Nov 15, 2012
On 5 November, GeoNet reported that several teams of scientists had been visiting Tongariro's Te Mari Craters to service portable seismometers (complementing four permanent installations), sample gas vents, and collect samples of ejecta. ... [more]
Tongariro volcano (North Island, New Zealand) activity update


Saturday, Nov 10, 2012
Compared to most previous weeks and months, seismic activity at the volcano has been calm the past days. [more]
Tongariro volcano (North Island, New Zealand) activity update


Wednesday, Nov 07, 2012
The volcano continues to show increased degassing mainly from the Te Maari eruption site. The hottest temperature measured from gas vents in this area was 235 °C, while others range from 95 °C to 104 °C (GeoNet). Seismic activity overall has remained low with only few earthquakes. GeoNet maintains alert level 1 and aviation color code yellow. [more]
Tongariro volcano (New Zealand): false reports of ash venting
Sunday, Sep 23, 2012
GeoNet reported on 20 Sep, that "No further volcanic activity has occurred from the reactivated Upper Te Maari craters on Tongariro. Scientific teams have been busy collecting and analysing data to understand the current unrest. ... [more]
Tongariro volcano (New Zealand) - Scientists think Tongariro will stay calm is most likely scenario
Monday, Aug 13, 2012
[more]

Tongariro volcano
complex volcano 1978 m / 6,490 ft
North Island, New Zealand, -39.12°S / 175.65°E
Tongariro volcano eruptions:
Eruptions outside Ngauruhoe, mainly on SSE flank (Red Crater): 6 Aug 2012, 1927 (?), 1926, 1896, 1890 (?), 1886, 1885±1, 1869, 1859, 1855, 1500 ± 50, 550 BC ± 200 years, 9350 BC (?), 9450 BC (?), 9650 BC (?), 9850 BC (?)
Eruptions from Ngauruhoe vent: 1975-77, 1972, 1968-69, 1962, 1958-59, 1956, 1948-54, 1939-40, 1937, 1934, 1931, 1924-28, 1917, 1913-14, 1909-10, 1904-07, 1897-98, 1892, 1883, 1881, 1878, 1875, 1869-70, 1862-64, 1857, 1844, 1841, 1839, 550 BC ± 200
Typical eruption style:
explosive
Anonymous Coward
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11/21/2012 06:06 PM
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Volcanoes of Australia - John Seach

[link to www.volcanolive.com]

Volcanoes in Australia are the result of hotspot activity.
Most volcanoes are extinct, but there is a province in Victoria which is dormant, and may erupt in the future.

Australia's currently active volcanoes are Heard Island, and McDonald Islands.

Kanawinka Global Geopark

Australian Islands

Heard Island
McDonald Island
Lord Howe Island
Norfolk Island Ridge
Macquarie Island
North Queensland

Atherton
Chudleigh
McBride (Undara)
McLean
Nulla
Piebald
Sturgeon
Wallaroo
Central Queensland
Bauhinia
Buckland
Hillsborough
Hoy
Mitchell
Monto
Nebo
Peak Range
Rockhampton
Springsure
Southern Queensland
Brisbane
Boyne
Bundaberg
Focal Peak
Glass House
Main Range

Northern NSW
Barrington
Central
Comboyne
Doughboy
Ebor
Liverpool Range
Nandewar
Tweed
Walcha
Warrumbungle
Central and Southern NSW
Abercrombie
Airly
Bunda Bunda
Byrock
Canobolas
Cargelligo
Dubbo
El Capitan
Monaro
Nerriga
Snowy Mountains
South Coast
Southern Highlands
Sydney
Torres Strait

Murray Islands

South Australia
Mt Gambier
Mt Schank
Victoria
Aberfeldy
Bacchus Marsh
Bogong
Bonang
Flinders
Gelantipy
Howitt
La Trobe
Mt Eccles
Mt Napier
Neerim
Toombullup
Uplands
Pacific Ocean
Tasman Seamounts Reserve
Tasmania

North
Northeast
Northwest
Central
Central-East
South
Tasman Sea

Tasman Seamounts


Burning Mountain
Non-volcanic emissions of hot gas and sulphur in rural NSW, Australia.

Mystery Craters
Craters located near Bundaberg, which might have volcanic origin.
taniatarn

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11/22/2012 12:33 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Both Tongariro and Ngauruhoe are showing signs of activity ( ngauruhoe always picks up Tongariro activity on the drums )...maybe signs another eruption is on the cards sooner rather than later..

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

Last Edited by taniatarn on 11/22/2012 12:35 AM
Interested observer of all things interesting!

Please note : Where appropriate for posted images/ graphs I acknowledge the New Zealand GeoNet project and its sponsors EQC, GNS Science and LINZ, for providing data/images used in my study and analyses of Volcanic and Earthquake information in New Zealand.
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11/22/2012 12:50 AM
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Both Tongariro and Ngauruhoe are showing signs of activity ( ngauruhoe always picks up Tongariro activity on the drums )...maybe signs another eruption is on the cards sooner rather than later..

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]
 Quoting: taniatarn


hiya tarn

wow that is an interesting pattern of blobs on all 3 drums

i have never seen those type of signals before

i wonder what they are showing us

nothing like the heavy dark areas with dozens of red vertical quake lines that we usually see on the oturere drum to show us there is activity at tongariro

hmmm...
Anonymous Coward
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CYOB #2 22 nov 2012 aest
WEATHERORNUT

Published on Nov 21, 2012 by WEATHERORNUT
Synoptic Summary
A Tropical Low (1000hPa) has now formed and is currently located at 14.4S 168.5E, north northeast of Maewo island, extends a trough over the group.

Forecast
Heavy Rain and thunder is affecting most parts of Vanuatu group, with inland winds of 40 to 60 KM/HR affecting North and Central islands. Flooding is possible in low lying areas and areas close to river banks. The National disaster management office (NDMO) is advising people in these areas to take extra precaution

Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 01:09 AM
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Both Tongariro and Ngauruhoe are showing signs of activity ( ngauruhoe always picks up Tongariro activity on the drums )...maybe signs another eruption is on the cards sooner rather than later..

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]
 Quoting: taniatarn


hiya tarn

wow that is an interesting pattern of blobs on all 3 drums

i have never seen those type of signals before

i wonder what they are showing us

nothing like the heavy dark areas with dozens of red vertical quake lines that we usually see on the oturere drum to show us there is activity at tongariro

hmmm...
 Quoting: Tauranga


keeping an eye on mayor island too, because it usually looks very dark whenever we see activity on tongariro (oturere drum)
[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

it didnt show anything yesterday but it is darkening up a bit today

edit to add:
also the mayor volcano graphs always normally spike and develop red areas when tongariro has activity
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 01:17 AM
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Volcanic Alert Bulletin TON-2012/31 - Tongariro Volcano

[link to info.geonet.org.nz]

22 November 2012, 4:15 pm - Eruption update: Tongariro still gassing but no ash; Volcanic Alert Level remains at Level 2; Aviation Colour Code remains Orange
Activity at Tongariro remains low but the volcano is still emitting a significant amount of gas, but with no ash.

Today’s observations confirm that the volcano is producing a lot of gas. The odour was noticed in the Manawatu and Hawke's Bay, the primary downwind areas of Te Maari (Tongariro).

Depending on weather conditions people may notice the smell of sulphur a hundred kilometres or more from the volcano. However, any health impact is likely to be limited to minor irritation of the skin and eyes, and possibly some irritation of the throat. Anyone who has respiratory problems and/or uses asthma medication, and has concerns with their health related to the gases, should seek medical advice.

Read about issues related to volcanic gas on the International Volcanic Hazards network.
GNS scientists carried out an observation flight around Tongariro today and were able to assess the general extent of the yesterday’s eruption. GNS scientist Craig Miller reported that “The Upper Te Maari hasn’t changed significantly after the eruption”.

The Volcanic Alert Level remains at 2 and the Aviation Colour Code at Orange.

GNS Science continues to closely monitor the situation.

Background
The Volcanic Alert Level ranges from 0 to 5 and defines the current status at a volcano. Level 2 indicates that a minor eruption has occurred.

Aviation Colour Codes are based on four colours and are intended for quick reference only in the international civil aviation community. Code Orange indicates that a volcanic eruption is underway but with little or no ash being produced.

Brad Scott, Nico Fournier
Volcanologists
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Tongariro Eruption Photos

[link to info.geonet.org.nz]

We have added photographs to the GeoNet Flickr account after today's observation flight over the volcano from our team at Wairakei.

You can see more details and photographs on the flickr website
[link to www.flickr.com]
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
tarn

do you have ant idea why these 2 versions of the raoul drum always look completely different to each other??

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]
[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

they are the same drum arent they??

the top one shows lots of activity

as does the USGS one
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

and the camera shows that it is very steamy there
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tarn

do you have ant idea why these 2 versions of the raoul drum always look completely different to each other??

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]
[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

they are the same drum arent they??

the top one shows lots of activity

as does the USGS one
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

and the camera shows that it is very steamy there
[link to www.geonet.org.nz]
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Read about issues related to volcanic gas on the International Volcanic Hazards network.

[link to www.ivhhn.org]
1221
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11/22/2012 01:43 AM
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Tongariro Eruption Photos

[link to info.geonet.org.nz]

We have added photographs to the GeoNet Flickr account after today's observation flight over the volcano from our team at Wairakei.

You can see more details and photographs on the flickr website
[link to www.flickr.com]
 Quoting: Tauranga


Hiya T-

Wow, amazing photos.

Hope you are faring well.

1221
hf
AKObserver

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11/22/2012 02:49 AM

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hi
Hi All!
Just got in the door! what a day! Did pull into driveway to see three shooting stars or meteorites pop off right over the top of my house! I'm taking that as a happy blessing :)
See our's and Russia's volcanoes are acting up too and looks like everything in the ring of fire is joining in.

Wishing Everyone a Happy, Safe and Joyous Thanksgiving.

I'm thankful for you my GLP family, all the wonderful friend's I've made, the amazing threads, for all the knowledge you have given me and all the dedication and encouragement that keeps us all searching for answers.

You are the Best!

hugs and xxx to all.hf


Stay Safe the photos are awesome Great job T!

Last Edited by AKObserver on 11/22/2012 02:50 AM
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Thanks for all the updates and the pictures Tauranga ! hf

Great job on this thread ! thumbs
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Large quake probability continues to drop

[link to www.stuff.co.nz]

The probability of a large aftershock somewhere in the central Canterbury earthquake zone continues to drop as a result of lower seismic activity in recent months.

In GNS Science's updated calculations released today, the probability of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 shake in the next 12 months is 69 per cent, compared with 82 per cent in January.

Over the same period there is a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 quake in the aftershock zone, which runs from the foothills in the west to Pegasus Bay in the east and from Rangiora in the north to Tai Tapu in the south.
That has fallen from a 39 per cent probability in January.

The chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 aftershock is now 9 per cent, down from 13 per cent in January, while there is only a 2 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9 event in the next year, down from 4 per cent at the start of the year.

GNS Science says the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher quake in the next year remains unchanged at 1 per cent.
 Quoting: Tauranga


This is a perfect example of meaningless bullshit. They 'calculate' the possibility of new quakes by the prevalence of the past ones - as if that's the only guide they need.

If it worked that way then the original big ones that hit ChCh shouldn't have occurred - but they did.

Meaningless rubbish.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28089232


Ha! I wrote a first comment to that very article politely inquiring upon thier "scientific" accuracy prior to Sep 4 2010 but the moderator didn't "approve" it. It seems one is allowed to gripe but not make too much sense or get close to the truth of things. Funny that.
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Tongariro Eruption Photos

[link to info.geonet.org.nz]

We have added photographs to the GeoNet Flickr account after today's observation flight over the volcano from our team at Wairakei.

You can see more details and photographs on the flickr website
[link to www.flickr.com]
 Quoting: Tauranga


Hiya T-

Wow, amazing photos.

Hope you are faring well.

1221
hf
 Quoting: 1221 28007056


hiya 1221

nice to see you

i havent had a chance to look at the photos yet, i have dial up, which takes forever to load, so i will have to wait until i can use a friends broadband to look at them and the videos

glad you liked them

yes, i am faring well

my son and i woke up with sinus this morning, but i am more inclined to think that eas from the heavy chemtrails we had yesterday, because as yet we havent smelled anything from the eruption, can see the greyness on the coastal horizon though

have a lovely thanksgiving, my friend xx
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 04:18 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
hi
Hi All!
Just got in the door! what a day! Did pull into driveway to see three shooting stars or meteorites pop off right over the top of my house! I'm taking that as a happy blessing :)
See our's and Russia's volcanoes are acting up too and looks like everything in the ring of fire is joining in.

Wishing Everyone a Happy, Safe and Joyous Thanksgiving.

I'm thankful for you my GLP family, all the wonderful friend's I've made, the amazing threads, for all the knowledge you have given me and all the dedication and encouragement that keeps us all searching for answers.

You are the Best!

hugs and xxx to all.hf


Stay Safe the photos are awesome Great job T!
 Quoting: AKObserver


hiya sis xxx

wow that is cool that you saw 3! shooting stars, i never used to see them, but see a lot now

yes, i saw thatyou have a few volcanoes going off in your part of the world, stay safe my friend

we all appreciate your input around here, you find incredible info, your research rocks!

have a wonderful thanksgiving AK

love you heaps xxx
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 04:22 AM
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Thanks for all the updates and the pictures Tauranga ! hf

Great job on this thread ! thumbs
 Quoting: subzero86


hiya subzero

i am glad to be able to be of service, thank you so much for your kind words, my friend

hope all is well in your neck of the woods

i am glad you have enjoyed all the tongariro info

neat to see youxx
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 04:27 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Large quake probability continues to drop

[link to www.stuff.co.nz]

The probability of a large aftershock somewhere in the central Canterbury earthquake zone continues to drop as a result of lower seismic activity in recent months.

In GNS Science's updated calculations released today, the probability of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 shake in the next 12 months is 69 per cent, compared with 82 per cent in January.

Over the same period there is a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 quake in the aftershock zone, which runs from the foothills in the west to Pegasus Bay in the east and from Rangiora in the north to Tai Tapu in the south.
That has fallen from a 39 per cent probability in January.

The chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 aftershock is now 9 per cent, down from 13 per cent in January, while there is only a 2 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9 event in the next year, down from 4 per cent at the start of the year.

GNS Science says the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher quake in the next year remains unchanged at 1 per cent.
 Quoting: Tauranga


This is a perfect example of meaningless bullshit. They 'calculate' the possibility of new quakes by the prevalence of the past ones - as if that's the only guide they need.

If it worked that way then the original big ones that hit ChCh shouldn't have occurred - but they did.

Meaningless rubbish.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28089232


Ha! I wrote a first comment to that very article politely inquiring upon thier "scientific" accuracy prior to Sep 4 2010 but the moderator didn't "approve" it. It seems one is allowed to gripe but not make too much sense or get close to the truth of things. Funny that.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 142629


lols, AC, that is funny (and quite a concern) isnt it

we seem to understand what is going on volcanically and seismically in nz a lot better than they do, which seems rather weird, doesnt it...

maybe they will start listening to us (and maori people who understand the connectedness of our volcanoes and quakes) one day

thanks for posting, nice to have your input here
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11/22/2012 04:43 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Tongariro eruption possible within a week

[link to www.stuff.co.nz]
video and photos

Volcanic activity at Mt Tongariro remains low but the volcano is still emitting a significant amount of gas, GNS Science says.

The volcano erupted yesterday, for the second time this year, and scientists are now keeping watch on both Mt Tongariro and Mt Ruapehu, warning that further eruptions are expected.

The eruption at Tongariro's Te Maari crater about 1.30pm was thought to have sent a two-kilometre plume into the air but GNS Science confirmed today that the ejection was three or four kilometres high and lasted for about five minutes.

Mt Tongariro had lay dormant for more than 100 years until an eruption early on August 6.

Scientists today used an observation flight around the mountain to assess the extent of yesterday’s eruption.

The volcano was producing a lot of gas, but with no ash. The odour was noticed in the Manawatu and Hawke's Bay, the primary downwind areas of Te Maari, GNS Science said.

Depending on weather conditions people may notice the smell of sulphur 100km or more from the volcano. However, any health impact was likely to be limited to minor irritation of the skin and eyes.

Historical evidence shows that there may be more eruptions to come.

"Progressive pressure may build up over time and we think that's what's happening," GNS vulcanologist Nico Fournier said.

"At the moment we can't make any judgement calls but the overall opinion is if there is an eruption it is unlikely to be quite big ... the bigger the eruption the more signals you should get beforehand and we haven't seen that."

Signals included earthquakes, gases emitted and the ground swelling slightly.

"We haven't had any evidence of any of those at the moment," Fournier said.

Scientists only had those historical events to compare the recent activity to, and Fournier said that a series of eruptions in the late 1800s indicated that more eruptions were to follow.

Known eruptions at Tongariro occurred in 1869 and intermittently in the years between 1886 and 1897.

Also, research based on volcanic events around the world showed that eruptions usually came in a series, Scott said.

"When you get an eruption it can stop, but most of the time there's further eruptions over months or years."

The point of origin of yesterday's eruption was similar to that from August, but two currents were formed, GNS vulcanologists said in a statement.

These currents, called pyroclastic density currents, consisted of a mixture of ash, volcanic gas and atmospheric air.

The two small currents were formed to the west and north of the crater and were believed to have been created because the ash column did not have enough energy to rise, which meant it probably collapsed at the base and the currents flowed downhill.

"There is no evidence at this stage of big blocks having been ejected far from the crater during the eruption."

There was also no evidence of magma reaching the surface.

With Ruapehu also recording activity, there was still an increased likelihood of an eruption there too.

GNS took samples of Ruapehu's Crater Lake yesterday and hoped to have a better insight once results were in next week, Fournier said.

While New Zealand vulcanologists didn't usually have to keep a close eye on two volcanoes experiencing heightened activity at the same time, they weren't letting anything slip, he said.

"We need to make sure we don't miss anything at Ruapehu while Tongariro is putting on a show."

ERUPTION DISRUPTION

The Tongariro Alpine crossing would remain closed until the middle of next week, unless the Department of Conservation was advised otherwise by GNS, programme manager for communication relations, Kim Alexander-Turia, said.

The main huts on the mountain, including Oterere and Mangatopopo were also closed.

The Whakapapa track to Tama Lake remained open but visitors should inform DOC's Ruapehu office when they planned to be on the track, Alexander-Turia said.

Civil Defence has cancelled its national advisory regarding ash fall as no ash is coming from the volcano.

The agency did not have any further advice for people in the area other than what was on their website.

All roads in the area were open but police urged anyone driving nearby to be cautious - not so much of the volcano, but of other cars in the area.

Area Commander Inspector Steve Bullock expected traffic in the area to become heavier over the next few days as many people would want to take advantage of the clear conditions to visit.

"That is completely understandable and whilst we don't discourage people from now travelling to the area we are asking them to put road safety and their own safety before sightseeing."

People were urged to pull over to the side of the road to view the mountain rather than trying to view it while driving.

Some Air New Zealand flights cancelled this morning were expected to resume this afternoon, including flights in and out of Taupo and Gisborne.

- MICHELLE COOKE, MIKE WATSON, MARTY SHARPE, BELINDA FEEK and ANGELA CUMING
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Tongariro could erupt again: GNS

[link to www.odt.co.nz]

The immediate threat of eruption at Mt Tongariro has passed but there remains a chance of another sudden eruption within the next two weeks, GNS Science says.

Twenty-four hours after the eruption from the mountain's Te Maari crater, GNS Science has cancelled its national advisory.

However, it says there remains a "significant probability of a sudden eruption within the next week".

Should a further eruption occur, a new national advisory or warning would be issued, GNS Science said.

Signs of volcanic activity settled overnight but experts continue to monitor the mountain for changes.

Thick grey smoke, gas and ash spewed 4km into the sky from Te Maari vent on the western side of the mountain during the unexpected eruption just before 1.30pm yesterday.

It is the same place where Tongariro erupted in August, for the first time in more than a century.

Yesterday's activity prompted an aviation red alert, which has since been dropped to orange.

Ash in the sky above the mountain also dissipated overnight.

Experts planned aerial observation to check how much gas was in the atmosphere and any other changes, said GNS Science duty volcanologist Nico Fournier.

Scientists have predicted that another eruption of similar size could be expected at any time during the next few weeks, though the activity was not expected to escalate.

"At the moment there are no such signs. It doesn't mean as we saw yesterday or in August that an eruption could not happen; it's quite possible," said Dr Fournier.

"It's a sign of concern for any volcanoes when they don't provide us with any warning."

The Department of Conservation has closed the Tongariro track, which was not expected to be reopened for at least three days.

Dr Fournier advised anyone planning to go to mountains in the area to first check with the Department of Conservation for any safety updates.

Groups of school children and trampers were on the mountain to walk the Tongariro Crossing when the volcano burst into activity, sending many into shock and awe.

Conditions on the mountain were today largely back to what they were before the eruption, with the volcano emitting some steam and gas at the same level it was before the August activity, said Dr Fournier.

"If the roads are open it's pretty much deemed safe and everybody's in touch with us."

Yesterday's activity has also affected flights to and from Taupo, Rotorua or Gisborne airports.

Ten Air New Zealand flights scheduled this morning were cancelled, also causing disruptions at some other regional airports.

The airline would continue to assess the situation, a spokeswoman said.
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Experts: Tongariro could erupt again

[link to www.nzherald.co.nz]

The immediate threat of eruption at Mt Tongariro has passed but there remains a chance of another sudden eruption within the next two weeks, GNS Science says.

Twenty-four hours after the eruption from the mountain's Te Maari crater, GNS Science has cancelled its national advisory.

However, it says there remains a "significant probability of a sudden eruption within the next week".

Should a further eruption occur, a new national advisory or warning would be issued, GNS Science said.

Signs of volcanic activity settled overnight but experts continue to monitor the mountain for changes.

Thick grey smoke, gas and ash spewed 4km into the sky from Te Maari vent on the western side of the mountain during the unexpected eruption just before 1.30pm yesterday.

It is the same place where Tongariro erupted in August, for the first time in more than a century.

Yesterday's activity prompted an aviation red alert, which has since been dropped to orange.


Ash in the sky above the mountain also dissipated overnight.

Experts planned aerial observation to check how much gas was in the atmosphere and any other changes, said GNS Science duty volcanologist Nico Fournier.

Scientists have predicted that another eruption of similar size could be expected at any time during the next few weeks, though the activity was not expected to escalate.

"At the moment there are no such signs. It doesn't mean as we saw yesterday or in August that an eruption could not happen; it's quite possible," said Dr Fournier.

"It's a sign of concern for any volcanoes when they don't provide us with any warning."

The Department of Conservation has closed the Tongariro track, which was not expected to be reopened for at least three days.

Dr Fournier advised anyone planning to go to mountains in the area to first check with the Department of Conservation for any safety updates.

Groups of school children and trampers were on the mountain to walk the Tongariro Crossing when the volcano burst into activity, sending many into shock and awe.

Conditions on the mountain were today largely back to what they were before the eruption, with the volcano emitting some steam and gas at the same level it was before the August activity, said Dr Fournier.

"If the roads are open it's pretty much deemed safe and everybody's in touch with us."

Air New Zealand flights to Rotorua are running again as the ash cloud to the east of the country from Mt Tongariro's eruption yesterday clears.

Flights to Taupo and Gisborne continue to be affected by delays and cancellations, but normal services are expected to resume as the day progresses, said an airline statement.

The airline is working with Civil Aviation Authority, the MetService and other authorities to monitor the situation and make adjustments to routes to ensure aircraft remain clear of any ash.

Passengers are advised to check the Air New Zealand website www.airnewzealand.co.nz for flight arrivals and departures information which will be constantly updated throughout the day.

Ten Air New Zealand flights scheduled this morning were cancelled, also causing disruptions at some other regional airports.

The airline will continue to assess the situation as the morning progresses, said a spokeswoman.

Passengers were advised to check the airline's website for flight details.

SHOCK AND AWE AS VOLCANO BLOWS

As Mt Tongariro started rumbling, children and trampers on the mountain turned to run, fearing the worst.

Not a second later, a thick grey plume of smoke erupted from the Te Maari vent and those closest looked at each other to see what the other was doing.

In one of the school groups on the mountain to walk the Tongariro Crossing, some children cried while others reached for their cameras.

The five-minute eruption sent ash 4km high into the sky without warning and was followed by 15 minutes of volcanic activity, but it was smaller than the August event.

But scientists have predicted that another eruption of similar size could be expected at any time during the next few weeks, though the activity was not expected to escalate.

Paul Cowan, a teacher from Auckland on holiday, was about 1km to 1.5km away from the 1.25pm eruption. He said there was nowhere to run because smoke was coming out of vents all around them.

"It was fantastic but it was actually a bit scary and everyone started running," he said.

Lynn Donovan, a tourist from Ireland, said that after they heard the rumble they turned around and "all of a sudden" a great tower of thick smoke poured from a crater.

"It was a little nerve-racking and some people started running but a guide from another group calmed us all down and told us what was going on," she said.

During the last eruption, the mountain spewed rocks into the air so they were told to be careful, but otherwise they were safe and there was no need to panic.

Principal John Petrie of Gulf Harbour School, which was doing the crossing with a group of 20 Year 8 students and 10 adults, said they didn't hear anything but some of the children started to notice the billowing cloud of rising ash.

"Initially the kids started getting their cameras out and were quite wowed by it, but as it continued to rise it got quite high and then the apprehension started creeping into all of us," Mr Petrie said. "Some of the kids started crying but others were quite captivated by it."

Last night, continued minor eruptive activity meant Mt Tongariro's Volcanic Alert Level remained at 2.

GNS duty volcanologist Nico Fournier said a northeast wind dragged the ash cloud over Lake Taupo. A light dusting of ash yesterday fell across part of State Highway 46 and towards Turangi.

"We're talking a matter of hours not days for it to fall," Dr Fournier said.

Meanwhile, tourism operators were excited about the eruption.

Adrift NZ tour guide Stewart Barclay, who chairs a group of 30 users of Mt Tongariro, said some school groups had cancelled tours but in the long run the eruption would be "fantastic for business".

He said they had been busier this November than the last because of the eruption in August.

"People just love being near it, they come to gawk at a truly active volcano ..."

Great Lake Taupo spokeswoman, Leola Abraham, said they were trying to focus on the positive impact of the eruption - that it put the region in the international public eye.

And the 8500 people taking part in the Contact Lake Taupo Cycle Challenge this weekend shouldn't change their plans - it will still go ahead.

Event director Kay Brake said they were monitoring the situation closely and there were contingency plans in place.

VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

Yesterday
* 1.25pm.
* Five-minute eruption followed by fifteen minutes of volcanic activity.
* Ash shot 4km into sky.
* No rock blasts or debris flows
* Suspected to be steam-driven.

August 6
* 11.50pm.
* Up to half an hour of eruption then very little volcanic activity.
* Ash shot 7km into the night sky.
* Boulders as large as one metre wide shot high into the air.
* Steam-driven.
* Elevated to Volcanic Alert 2.
* First eruption since 1896 that lasted 11 months.

What next?
* GNS volcanologist Dr Nico Fournier said another eruption of similar size could be expected soon, and there was a possibility of a larger event.
* Ash was being collected and analysed at Massey University to assess health effects. Results were expected in the next few days.

You may also be interested in:

Silent for decades, Tongariro shows it can still kick ash
Photos: Tongariro eruption in August
Video: Locals reacting to eruption in August
Interest in Tongariro Alpine Crossing erupts
500,000 people in lava's line of fire (+ graphic)
Anonymous Coward
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
[link to www.nzherald.co.nz]

If you were on a volcano when it erupted, what would you do?
900–950 votes

*Pull out my smartphone and start filming

*Run for cover

*Head towards it to get a closer look

*Call loved ones

*Sit down, lie back and watch it unfold

View results (vote)
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Tongariro erupts - where will the ash cloud go?

[link to www.nzherald.co.nz]
video

WeatherWatch's Philip Duncan on where the ash is likely to fall.
GeoNet has confirmed that Mt Tongariro has again erupted this afternoon, sending an ash plume several hundred feet into the sky according to media reports.

WeatherWatch.co.nz has been checking the wind flows and wind speeds in the area.

Our feeling is that much of the ash will fall locally, due to only light winds in the region and therefore the ash will fall to the ground sooner.

However lighter ash can travel great distances at higher altitudes - and this can impact flight routes and airports.

The wind flow on the mountain and surrounding mountains/weather stations currently shows a light south westerly at ground level. Wind flows higher up are expected to be light also but generally pushing the ash in an easterly direction.

The plume may drift anywhere within the eastern quarter - anywhere from Taupo to Hawkes Bay at this early stage.



The forecast for the next five days shows light winds from the west, similar to today.

The good news, as like the last time Tongariro erupted, is that the wind flow is pushing any ash clouds away from the main North Island/South Island air route - which is to the west of the mountain (and the ash is being carried eastwards).
However it does mean ash will fall over State Highway 1, the Desert Road.

Strong smelling gases may travel much further, as it did last time. Those who are concerned are advised to check the GeoNet or GNS Science websites for full details.

Farmers and those who rely on rain water and are near the mountain - or in the potential path of ash - should disconnect rain water tanks immediately.

Motorists are reminded that while ash may seem fluffy, if it is in fact small and harsh rock particles - which scratches windscreens and can choke engines if thick enough.

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