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WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 07:55 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Yeah heads up their arses alright.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28109230


and i have heard that when anyone asks pertinent questions on their facebook page, they get nasty as...
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11/22/2012 08:12 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Volcanoes greatest risk to this region

[link to www.bayofplentytimes.co.nz]

Bay residents are more concerned about earthquakes and tsunamis than volcanoes, despite the fact they pose the most serious civil defence risk.

The significant disconnect between public perception and actual scientific data has been highlighted in a report issued by the Bay's Civil Defence emergency managers.

It said recent devastating earthquakes and tsunamis meant many Bay coastal communities had become increasingly concerned by the prospect of a tsunami.

This was despite volcanic eruptions easily topping the risk list of the Bay's high priority hazards by scoring 4.8, the only hazard to rank in the "major" category of seriousness.

No hazards reached a five or catastrophic risk.

The rest of the region's civil defence priorities were rated as moderate or minor risks. A moderate risk scored in the threes while a hazard ranked as minor scored in the twos.

"While a local tsunami is considered to be quite serious, a distant tsunami is rated 3.2 on the seriousness scale, which is relatively low," the report said.

A local tsunami was ranked 3.5, or third on the seriousness scale.

The second highest risk was flooding of the Rangitaiki River in the Eastern Bay of Plenty. It scored 3.8. Coastal storms, an animal disease epidemic, a human pandemic and rural fire were all ranked at 3.4.

A strong earthquake, which caused objects to fall from walls and shelves and slight non-structural damage, was ranked 3.3 on the seriousness scale.

That's the same ranking given to an earthquake on the North Island's fault line that destroyed weak buildings and damaged others.

Bottom of the high priority hazards were biological pests and new organisms (2.4) and a major air accident in Rotorua, also rated at 2.4.

Coastal erosion and heavy rainfall were given a moderate priority by Civil Defence, scoring 2.2 for seriousness of risk.

The report appeared to have been written before the recent eruption of Mt Tongariro and the weak eruption of White Island, which discharged a black ash-charged plume.

Neither did it mention the May 2005 Tauranga storm which triggered a civil defence emergency and led to widespread slips and property damage in parts of the city.

However, Tauranga Mayor Stuart Crosby, speaking after Friday's meeting of the emergency management committee, said the storm was the first time a civil defence emergency had been declared in Tauranga.

Mr Crosby said the key thing to come out of the meeting was the adoption of the Bay's Regional Civil Defence Emergency Plan.

"We are vulnerable to just about everything that you can imagine in the Bay, barring hurricanes," he said.

A study on emergency preparedness in the Bay had identified where improvements were needed and the region's Civil Defence budget had been doubled.

Civil Defence was filling positions left vacant by staff resigning to go and work in Christchurch.

"There has been a vast improvement in resourcing to action that plan, particularly in the next two years," Mr Crosby said.

A major new initiative, one of the lessons from Christchurch, was to engage more with the community.

The focus in Tauranga was on the coastal suburbs that were most vulnerable to a tsunami.

"When an event happens, they will have to look after themselves in the short term," Mr Crosby said.

The Bay's volcanoes have earned the unenviable title of being major civil defence risks, led by the Taupo Volcanic Zone which is the most active caldera system in the world.
[link to media2.apnonline.com.au]
man, this image really shows the reality of our volcanic situation
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11/22/2012 09:42 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
The Taupo Volcanic Zone – Part I

[link to volcanocafe.wordpress.com]
incredible images and diagrams with this fantastic article

This is the first installment of a series I have been planning to do for, um, about 16 years, on the TVZ and I should state right up front I am one of the least qualified people around to do this, being neither a geologist nor currently in New Zealand. What’s more I gleaned virtually all of my knowledge about the TVZ second hand and most of that while sitting on the other side of the planet, here in Germany. If anybody who is more knowledgeable about the TVZ has material to add or corrections, I would be most happy to hear it and will readily bow to their greater wisdom. Also the wider geological setting of NZ has already been touched on by Nathan in his post on the Auckland volcanic field so I apologize in advance for any redundancy on my part. Anyway, here goes, the TVZ:

Best bits firsts

To get straight to the juicy bit, the TVZ is currently the most prolific rhyolite-producing region on the planet (no doubt this will change, possibly at short notice – eek). But for the moment the TVZ is the bee’s knees. It is home to two active calderas, each of which can claim membership to the “mega-scary” club (Taupo and Okataina), and a number of other currently inactive calderas, each of which has produced a VEI 7 or greater eruption in the last 300,000 years. In fact there have been at least 34 ignimbrite caldera-forming eruptions in the last 1.6 million years. Take that, Yellowstone! (just joking).

Averaged out over the last 65,000 years (and, yes, in human terms, that’s a lot of years, ask the nearest Neanderthaler), Taupo alone, i.e. just the one volcano, not the zone, has produced 2 m³/s of fresh magma#. ( C.J.N. Wilson 1993, Stratigraphy, Chronology, Style and Dynamics of later Quarternary Eruptions from Taup volcano.) Set your watches. If that is not bad enough, what is more disconcerting is the apparent chaotic nature of major eruptions. Repose times don’t seem to have a lot of credence in New Zealand. But, more of this later on a separate installment on Taupo Volcano.

Less well known is that New Zealand is just the emergent tip of submerged continent, which kind of fits our national psyche. We’re actually one of the cratons that made up Gondwanaland but we were so thin and weak at the knees that we just slipped into the ocean when we departed from Australia 83 million years ago. The bulk of the continental crust making up Zealandia, the submerged continent that stretches from New Caledonia in the northwest to the Chatham Islands in the southeast, an area half the size of Australia, is composed of greywacke. For the linguists among us, greywacke is a word that originates from the mining industry in Germany which miners used to refer to the “grauer Wacke” loose sedimentary deposits that had to be removed before finding the profitable coal seams below. < [link to en.wikipedia.org] Well, I guess it is pretty grey and non-descript stuff, but, at least in New Zealand, greywacke is actually formed from eroded granite. And granite is pretty prevalent stuff. In fact, according to Wikipedia, 70% of the world’s continents are actually formed of granite, indicating just how much of the current continental crust was at some stage in the past in molten form (at depth) but this is the very stuff of which rhyolite volcanoes like Taupo are made.

However, the greywacke that makes up the bulk of New Zealand does not come from volcanic centers in Zealandia. Rather, it is most likely the eroded sedimentary remains of volcanic centers in Australia, Queensland to be precise, that probably formed in the first stages of the rift that finally drove Zealandia and Australia apart. Basically, vast volumes of eroded material were washed off the coast of Australia into the Pacific basin some 385 to 100 million years ago, forming new continental crust, a process known as continental accretion

Later, as rifting set in big time, the ocean encroached on the newly formed Tasman basin that split the eastern seaboard of Australia off from the remains of Gondwanaland and the fragment (Zealandia) drifted off towards the east, only stopping 23 million years ago when the spreading center in the middle of the Tasman inexplicably stopped. You can see the same kind of rift mechanism at work today in the Afar triangle. The main points to remember though, as they are important later when we get to the TVZ, are that Zealandia is a craton, composed mostly of the sedimentary products from the erosion of continental granite. However, it is thin crust, so thin that it lacks the buoyancy to poke its head above water like most other cratons. In fact it is conceivable that all of New Zealand was fully submerged 23 million years ago, however the jury is still out on this one. Possibly a few islands survived and it is from these islands that the bizarre flora and fauna of modern New Zealand evolved in the meantime.

So if only two things should be imprinted on your cerebellum by now it should be these: New Zealand is composed of thin crust, and this is made up of sedimentary rock composed of grauwacke, the product of the erosion of distant volcanoes in Australia.

All well and good. Zealandia could well have remained submerged for ever if it weren’t for that pesky plate tectonics thingy-me-bob. At some point, about 23 million years ago, the Pacific plate and the Australian plate changed from being a passive margin to becoming an active margin and the consequences for New Zealand were enormous. In fact without it, we probably wouldn’t be here today, or if so, us New Zealanders would be all crammed on the Chatham Islands and inbred beyond redemption.

Anyway, rather than taking a nice easy route around the plate margin, the Pacific and Australian plate margin decided to just run straight through the flimsy bit of continental plate called Zealandia. In fact you can basically divide up the current plate margin into three sections:

1. the northern section, where the Pacific ocean plate subducts under the Australian plate (Kermadec trench / Hikurangi trough
2. the central section, where continental crust to the east rams into continental crust to the west, forming the Southern Alps in the process
3. the southern section, where Australian oceanic crust subducts below old Zealandian crust now located on the Pacific side of the plate margin.

To complicate matters, this is not a pure head-on collision, but oblique, with the Pacific plate heading WSW and the Australian plate heading NNE, resulting in a good deal of shear along the plate boundary (this point too will become significant when we get to the TVZ). In fact the ratio of horizontal shear to vertical motion in the central section where the Southern Alps are forming is about two to one with the west coast of the South Island slipping NNE two meters for every 1 meter the Pacific side rises in height.

To complicate matters still further, the globe is not just a nice planar surface but nicely curved. Given the dimensions of NZ (more than 1500 km in length) this curvature also results in some interesting distortions which are highly significant if you want to fully understand the origin of the TVZ.

Basically, the Alpine fault is the crunch zone where the plates are pushing and slipping past one another. There is an enormous amount of deformation involved here, with a lot of folding and mountain building going on. However to the north, on the upper part of the North Island, the Pacific plate is subducting smoothly (well, ok, not so smoothly) under the Australian plate, ripping off and swallowing the leading edge of the Australian plate in the process. This is the East Cape which represents not only the accretionary edge of the margin but also, due to friction and the weird far-field geometry involved, is slowly getting eaten and drawn down into the trench along with the Pacific plate. Geonet used to have a great animation of this but unfortunately I can’t find it anymore. This, however, is crucial to the formation of the TVZ, for this mechanism is precisely what drives the back-arc rifting that forms the TVZ. Moreover, it is not just back-arc rifting but an extension zone with a slight rotary component that has its focus somewhere to the south of Ruapehu

Consequently, you effectively have two primary mechanisms for volcanism working in unison in the TVZ: subduction and rifting (did I mention that the Zealandia craton was anyway pretty thin stuff?). This combination is what makes the TVZ so prolific at generating the grey stuff that ignimbrite sheets are made of. The crust in the TVZ is extremely thin. Some estimates put it at just five kilometers but I would be wary of overly simplifying the schematics of it. 15 to 20 km is more likely.

North of Okataina, the Whakatane graben is opening up at quite a dramatic rate of about 2cm a year. ( Lamarche, Barnes et all 2006) However, volcanism here has been restricted to andesite, volcanic arc type volcanism (stratovolcanoes such as Edgecumbe and White Island). South of Taupo the same volcanic arc type andesite volcanism is evident (Tongariro and Ruapehu). It is the bit in the middle that is so frightening. Here thin crust is getting heated from below, resulting in massive magma chambers and associated caldera volcanism. I count 17 calderas in the above picture, almost all of which have formed in the last 400,000 years. This caldera volcanism is what the next installment will concentrate on.

Oh, there is something important I forgot. Batholiths. Nobody ever talks of batholiths.

Batholiths are weird things. Probably the largest volcanic features on the planet outside of large igneous provinces and mid-ocean ridges but you don’t get them at mid-ocean ridges because they are, by definition, only a feature of continental crust. But, like mid-ocean ridges, they are made of melt, and to get melt in continental crust you need a heat source and/or a source of volatiles (primarily H2O and C2O) which is why you will find them forming behind plate margins where a subducting plate can provide the needed ingredients to induce large scale melting in the crust. Now, just because they are composed of melt does not mean they are going to erupt. Far from it. The vast majority of this melt remains locked in the crust and slowly cools off to form granite. If the tectonic forces are right, they will be later lifted and eroded and provide some excellent rock climbing opportunities a few million years down the road. But batholiths can be huge. I went to Sardinia this year. The Costa Smeralda is a beautiful place and composed of granite as far as you can see. How much of a later batholith is actual melt deep in the crust at any one time escapes the extent of my reading. Maybe someone can fill me in here.

Whatever the case is with batholiths, it is obvious that the presence of a large volume of melt at depth in the crust is conducive to magma genesis at shallow levels, either as a source of melt in its own right, rising in diapirs, or indirectly, as a heat source for shallower magma chambers. I think it is a pretty safe bet to assume there are batholiths involved under Sumatra, the Altiplano, the Sierra Nevada in California, and New Zealand is no exception. The Southern Alps have lifted up and exposed a region called the Median batholith that originated when Zealandia first rifted away from Australia. More recently, as the Pacific/Australian plate margin switched from passive to active, much younger batholiths have formed, leading to the beautiful series of Coromandel volcanics, which, according to a tantalizing footnote in my favorite book on New Zealand (see below), just might play a role in Taupo as well. … but more of that in the second installment.

Bruce Stout
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 10:04 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
The Taupo Volcanic Zone – Part I

[link to volcanocafe.wordpress.com]
incredible images and diagrams with this fantastic article...us New Zealanders would be all crammed on the Chatham Islands and inbred beyond redemption.
Bruce Stout
 Quoting: Tauranga


Are you kidding?
You kiws ARE inbred beyond redemption!
You're the Hillbillies of the WORLD.

Also, you're all gonna die soon.
Prep up!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28253447


what a nasty shill you are ,to make it look as if i said the underlined part, when in fact you added it
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 10:09 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
The Taupo Volcanic Zone – Part I

[link to volcanocafe.wordpress.com]
incredible images and diagrams with this fantastic article...us New Zealanders would be all crammed on the Chatham Islands and inbred beyond redemption.
Bruce Stout
 Quoting: Tauranga


Are you kidding?
You kiws ARE inbred beyond redemption!
You're the Hillbillies of the WORLD.

Also, you're all gonna die soon.
Prep up!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28253447


what a nasty shill you are ,to make it look as if i said the underlined part, when in fact you added it
 Quoting: Tauranga


see what i mean, tarn, we got to close to the truth so the nasties attack

lols we are obviously onto something big here
Anonymous Coward
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11/22/2012 10:25 PM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
TVZ Part II -Taupo Volcano

[link to volcanocafe.wordpress.com]
more incredible images, photos and diagrams with this article, Bruce Stout's articles rock, thank you Bruce

This is a Swedish dump truck. A very good Swedish dump truck. It can carry a load of 39,000 kg – let’s be generous. Let’s say 40 tons. It makes the maths easier.

Now imagine 192,500 of these dump trucks passing your door. That’s right 192,500. Every second. Oh, and they must be going at a speed high enough to shoot 50 km into the air. (I’ll let someone else do the calculation on that one). But they are very fast dump trucks.

Got the picture?
No, well I haven’t either. Let’s try ships:

This one here can carry 40,000 tons. That’s handy. Right, imagine 192 of these passing your door every second. OK, now we are getting somewhere. I can almost imagine that. 192 very fast ships, every second. Well, this is the eruption rate of the most powerful unit of the most recent major Taupo eruption, the Hatepe eruption in 181 CE (or 233 CE, according to radio carbon dating by Sparks).

In fact, I am wildly underestimating the volumes involved, because those dump trucks are not filled up with dense rock (magma equivalent), but light, aerated pumice. Lowenstern (or somebody else) from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory once said rhyolitic magma can expand by up to a factor of 630 due to the exsolution of volcanic gases. I don’t know how many dump trucks you need to carry 40 tons of pumice, but it’s a lot. Same goes for ships.

We have entered a sphere that is simply inconceivable. We are in the domain of the mega-scary.

Here a list of some more stats, the bulk of which are taken from assorted papers published by C.J.N. Wilson:

The Hatepe eruption was the most violent Plinian eruption in the last little while. You probably have to go back 5,000 years to find anything with a bigger bang, although over the last couple of years I have come to doubt the veracity of this claim. Tambora, Krakatoa, Baekdu/Changbaishan were also pretty big eruptions, but possibly they just took a couple of hours to do what Taupo did in a few minutes.

In sum it is likely that up to 120 km³ of magma was erupted in the Hatepe eruption over the full course of the episode. Of that total, approximately 35 km³ seemed to go up in the space of just a few minutes (the bit I tried to describe above). Imagine this volume suddenly getting shunted up to an altitude of 50 km. That’s right, 50 km. About one third of the way to low-earth orbit. Higher than Felix Baumgartner.

Think how much energy a space shuttle needs to shunt a couple of tons that high and you start to get the idea of how powerful this eruption was.

But what goes up, comes down. And this one came down with a wallop. The ensuing pyroclastic flow is thought to have been 1.5 km high and travelling close to the speed of sound. It surmounted Ruapehu, 65 km to the southwest and at least 2100 m higher in altitude than the vent.


Pyroclastic flow at Pinatubo

The force of this catastrophic event is also recorded in the nature of the deposits: the ashfall from earlier parts in the sequence blankets 30,000 km² east of the vent with 10 cm of ash but the ignimbrite left behind by the final pyroclastic flow is laid out in an almost perfect circle, extending 80 km from the vent in all directions and covering 20,000 km².

Oh, and this is nothing. Oruanui at 26 kA was at least five times bigger (c. 530 km3 magma). And Whakamaru, north of Taupo (approx 340 kA) was much bigger again (1500 km3 though possibly in two or more eruptions).

Quite simply, we do not want something like this to happen in our lifetimes. Or our children’s lifetimes. Or our children’s children’s.. but one day it will. And, let’s face it. Humanity will survive it. Maybe not in New Zealand, but somewhere else for sure. Maybe Iceland. Or Alpha Centauri .

When we grew up, the northern horizon was dominated by the distant and majestic cones of Taranaki (we called it Egmont back then) and Ruapehu. I remember seeing the eruption cloud from Ruapehu while driving down to my grandparents’ place on the beach, miles to the south. What’s more, back in the sixties and well into the seventies, Ngauruhoe erupted in regular Strombolian bursts. For us, these were our volcanoes and Taupo was well, just known as “The Lake”. You could still be forgiven for overlooking it as a volcano because it simply isn’t there. Just a ruddy great hole in the ground full of gloriously clean water and rainbow trout.

It’s not even round, like a crater, but totally irregular in shape. And it’s a big lake, stretching 46 km on its longest axis and 33 km in breadth.

Sure, some people told us Taupo was an even bigger volcano than Ruapehu but this sounded like legend or some fact of the long distant past because it obviously wasn’t anything like Ruapheu now. It was only later, that I started to read up about volcanology that I realized how wrong our impressions had been. Not only was Taupo never ever a nice big mountain, but, paradoxically, it is way bigger than Ruapehu in terms of volume of erupted tephra. It is also very, very active, still today and makes Ruapheu look positively gentle.

So, just how big is this hole in the ground we call Taupo?

The current Taupo caldera takes an oblong shape, which is kind of interesting as Okataina displays the same rectangular shape. More on the significance of this later. The actual caldera basin is, logically, much smaller than the lake but is still quite sizeable:


Bouguer gravity anomaly

This hole in the ground has produced 28 eruptions in the last 26,000 years following the massive Oruanui eruption (although eruptive activity actually goes back about 300,000 years). And, precisely because the Oruanui eruption reset the system, most of those eruptions were in the latter half of those 26kA. Thankfully most of them were small. But at least four of them were scary humdingers and two of them were off the scale. Moreover, its eruptions appear chaotic with no discernible pattern in the size or the repose time between eruptions. Look at the chart of recent eruptions to the left. See any patterns?

Yeah, all well and good, but why? Why is Taupo so prolific? Why is there no pattern in the repose time? Why is it so violent? Why is it even there? What makes it different from any other subduction scenario around the world? I’ll try to answer these questions in the next installment.

Bruce Stout
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11/23/2012 12:15 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
kermadec is about to go off again

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

[link to rev.seis.sc.edu]

hidinghidinghiding
Solar Guardian

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11/23/2012 01:11 AM

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Supervolcano eruption by Dec 21 2012? hiding
Thread: Just conducted a new research on annual big quakes that happened since 2010. August 20-September 2 2014???

Thread: Russian scientist predicts "Massive Earthquake" to hit Japan by end of 2014!!!

Thread: Japanese scientist predicts another major earthquake in Japan by 2017 -Japanese news!!!

"For 2 consecutive years, lots of rumors concerning big earthquakes and pole shifts caused by a celestial object to occur around the date of August 17 has been circulating on the internet from sources like John Moore and Mike Harris (Nibiru Aug 17 2012) and Pattie Brassard (Mag 15 quake Aug 17 2013).....Is there in any way a chance that the real date could actually be this year? .....August 17-27 2014????" ----Solar Guardian
MamaHasAwakened

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11/23/2012 01:54 AM
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hf

Stay safe T!!!
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 02:57 AM
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hf

Stay safe T!!!
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


hiya mama

it is getting rather crazy here

i have been thinking today about what options we have if and when big eruptions happen here

the problem is our country is so small, everyone in the north island is pretty close to taupo and the volcanoes

south island i guess would be safer, but there are dormant volcanoes in the south island too, which could also wake up quickly..

like they say..shit is getting real..

you stay safe too, my dear sister, you guys have some crazy stuff going down in your country too, dont you

i hope you had a really neat thanksgiving with your family

love you heaps xxx
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 03:11 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
the nz seismo drums

[link to zl2tod.net]

worrying signals on many of them
taniatarn

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11/23/2012 04:16 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
The Taupo Volcanic Zone – Part I

[link to volcanocafe.wordpress.com]
incredible images and diagrams with this fantastic article...us New Zealanders would be all crammed on the Chatham Islands and inbred beyond redemption.
Bruce Stout
 Quoting: Tauranga


Are you kidding?
You kiws ARE inbred beyond redemption!
You're the Hillbillies of the WORLD.

Also, you're all gonna die soon.
Prep up!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28253447


what a nasty shill you are ,to make it look as if i said the underlined part, when in fact you added it
 Quoting: Tauranga


see what i mean, tarn, we got to close to the truth so the nasties attack

lols we are obviously onto something big here

 Quoting: Tauranga


Severe lack of intelligence = abusive comments
Interested observer of all things interesting!

Please note : Where appropriate for posted images/ graphs I acknowledge the New Zealand GeoNet project and its sponsors EQC, GNS Science and LINZ, for providing data/images used in my study and analyses of Volcanic and Earthquake information in New Zealand.
taniatarn

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11/23/2012 04:23 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Havent had a chance to catch up on your thread properly...some interesting reading to do tomorrow!

hf

I just wanted to briefly talk about the quakes off Whakatane again...

There are two distinct areas...one is the dormant volcano Moutohoura Island, otherwise known as Whale Island
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

....and the other is about 8km away to the north where there is another small group of islands...

[link to img32.imageshack.us]

This area is right in the line to White and back to the TPV so not inconceivable that this area is about the flare up as well...

Last Edited by taniatarn on 11/23/2012 04:26 AM
Interested observer of all things interesting!

Please note : Where appropriate for posted images/ graphs I acknowledge the New Zealand GeoNet project and its sponsors EQC, GNS Science and LINZ, for providing data/images used in my study and analyses of Volcanic and Earthquake information in New Zealand.
taniatarn

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11/23/2012 04:27 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Havent had a chance to catch up on your thread properly...some interesting reading to do tomorrow!

hf

I just wanted to briefly talk about the quakes off Whakatane again...

There are two distinct areas...one is the dormant volcano Moutohoura Island, otherwise known as Whale Island
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

....and the other is about 8km away to the north where there is another small group of islands...

[link to img32.imageshack.us]

This area is right in the line to White and back to the TPV so not inconceivable that this area is about the flare up as well...
 Quoting: taniatarn


I wonder if they monitor the hot springs on this island and keep an eye on activity...
Interested observer of all things interesting!

Please note : Where appropriate for posted images/ graphs I acknowledge the New Zealand GeoNet project and its sponsors EQC, GNS Science and LINZ, for providing data/images used in my study and analyses of Volcanic and Earthquake information in New Zealand.
taniatarn

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11/23/2012 04:41 AM
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Two quakes under Taupo today, One under Ruapehu and one under tongariro.

The Tongariro one was really deep...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 10:26:35 pm 2.2mag 158km -39.1184,175.6294 Tongariro Alpine Crossing, Tongariro National Park, 4691, New Zealand

Ruapehu one was also reasonably deep...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 1:57:26 pm 1.5mag 49km -39.2882,175.647 Tukino Access Rd, Tongariro National Park, 4691, New Zealand

as were the two Taupo ones...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 1:14:02 pm 2.1mag 59km -38.8245,175.725 197 Karangahape Rd, Kuratau 3381, New Zealand

*Friday, November 23 2012 at 10:15:59 pm 1.9mag 46km
-38.6848,176.2503 Feilding Rd, Tauhara Forest 3379, New Zealand

There was also one right next to Ruapehu...this one was a bit shallower...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 8:29:43 pm 1.7mag 14km
-39.2187,175.3489 550 Cuff Rd, Erua 3990, New Zealand

Last Edited by taniatarn on 11/23/2012 04:44 AM
Interested observer of all things interesting!

Please note : Where appropriate for posted images/ graphs I acknowledge the New Zealand GeoNet project and its sponsors EQC, GNS Science and LINZ, for providing data/images used in my study and analyses of Volcanic and Earthquake information in New Zealand.
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Havent had a chance to catch up on your thread properly...some interesting reading to do tomorrow!

hf

I just wanted to briefly talk about the quakes off Whakatane again...

There are two distinct areas...one is the dormant volcano Moutohoura Island, otherwise known as Whale Island
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

....and the other is about 8km away to the north where there is another small group of islands...

[link to img32.imageshack.us]

This area is right in the line to White and back to the TPV so not inconceivable that this area is about the flare up as well...
 Quoting: taniatarn


yes, i think it is looking that way too..
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Havent had a chance to catch up on your thread properly...some interesting reading to do tomorrow!

hf

I just wanted to briefly talk about the quakes off Whakatane again...

There are two distinct areas...one is the dormant volcano Moutohoura Island, otherwise known as Whale Island
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

....and the other is about 8km away to the north where there is another small group of islands...

[link to img32.imageshack.us]

This area is right in the line to White and back to the TPV so not inconceivable that this area is about the flare up as well...
 Quoting: taniatarn


I wonder if they monitor the hot springs on this island and keep an eye on activity...
 Quoting: taniatarn


oh, does whale island have hot springs?

does anyone live there?
Anonymous Coward
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Two quakes under Taupo today, One under Ruapehu and one under tongariro.

The Tongariro one was really deep...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 10:26:35 pm 2.2mag 158km -39.1184,175.6294 Tongariro Alpine Crossing, Tongariro National Park, 4691, New Zealand

Ruapehu one was also reasonably deep...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 1:57:26 pm 1.5mag 49km -39.2882,175.647 Tukino Access Rd, Tongariro National Park, 4691, New Zealand

as were the two Taupo ones...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 1:14:02 pm 2.1mag 59km -38.8245,175.725 197 Karangahape Rd, Kuratau 3381, New Zealand

*Friday, November 23 2012 at 10:15:59 pm 1.9mag 46km
-38.6848,176.2503 Feilding Rd, Tauhara Forest 3379, New Zealand

There was also one right next to Ruapehu...this one was a bit shallower...
*Friday, November 23 2012 at 8:29:43 pm 1.7mag 14km
-39.2187,175.3489 550 Cuff Rd, Erua 3990, New Zealand
 Quoting: taniatarn


hmmm...

this makes me think of the prophesy about all 3 of them erupting simultaneously
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From J.Seach blog:

Growth of #Tongariro volcanic complex (New Zealand) [link to www.tandfonline.com]
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A PROPHETIC WARNING CONCERNING
GEO-PHYSICAL EVENTS TO COME UPON NEW ZEALAND

[link to www.lookout.org.nz]

Word from the late Peter Bolstad
Soon there will be rumblings in the Central North Island such as has never been before.
These rumblings will be in the air and in the ground. Both spiritual and physical upheavals
in this part of the world are coming!
The rumblings will be volcanoes erupting. All three Central Plateau mountains—Ngauruhoe,
Tongariro, Ruapehu will come alive. Lake Taupo is a crater lake and this too will erupt.
The
mountains will roar and thunder as has never been heard before. Not only will New Zealand
be affected but also Australia and other Pacific regions.

The earthquakes that are coming will have effect from the North Cape to the bottom of
Stewart Island. They will be big and continue over several days with smaller ones continuing
over several weeks. There will be major disruptions to power supplies, and phones and
many roads will be destroyed. The fault lines from White Island through the Central Plateau,
down through Hawkes Bay, down through Wellington and on through the South Island past
Stewart Island will shift. Some land will move sideways, some land will rise up and some
land will open up. Many buildings will be destroyed and lives will be lost.

The events will be very big by world standards. There will be a lake at Rissington (Hawkes
Bay), and further south more lakes. Lake Poukawa will again be as it was over two hundred
years ago and State Highway 2 will, in places, be under water.
The Hawkes Bay Region will be isolated for some months after these events as all roads,
power, phones, ports and airfields will be unusable. Many areas will be isolated and houses
destroyed and a lot more will be unfit to live in. White Island and the Tongariro National
Park volcanoes will send out much ash,
which will cover large areas of forests and farmland
causing trees, animals and grass to die.

The land around the Napier-Clive-Hastings area will be lifted up—some areas by many
metres. There will be numerous slips in the hills and many roads will fall away over most of
New Zealand.
'Mountains will rise up, Mountains will fall down.
The sea will come in, And the sea will go out.
And you will see it all.'

The sea area surrounded by a line from Cape Kidnappers to the most eastern tip of Mahia
Peninsular and the present coastline will become dry land. This land will rise substantially

'There will be land where there is no land.
There will be sea where there is no sea.'

The earthquakes and changes to the landscape will be tremendous and New Zealand's
economy totally disrupted. The sea will sweep in and out over all the flat land of the east
coast. Land around Napier will sink and then rise up, blocking rivers and sending water
south to the Wairarapa lakes—lakes reborn and new ones formed. Volcanoes will come to
life violently at the same time and ash will cause much loss of life. Many fault lines will shift.
Animals and birds will try to leave just before all this starts.
'Where there is no water there will be water
Where there is water there will be no water
Rivers will be blocked and lakes formed.'
There will be tsunamis from earthquakes and massive shifts of the seabed out to the
southeast of Hawkes Bay toward the Chatham Islands. This will destroy much habitation
and many lives will be lost. The earthquakes above sea level are going to be very severe
over most of New Zealand—from North Cape to Stewart Island. Food and necessities will
become very scarce and people will fight, kill and destroy in order to survive.

The Chatham Islands will rise up out of the sea to a considerable height and be substantially
larger than its present size. This event will create a tsunami that will devastate most of the
flat coastal land of the east coast of both North and South Islands. New Zealand's shape will
be altered to such an extent that it will be unrecognizable. Much of the North Island will see
big lakes formed, mountain ranges shifted, rivers diverted and some blocked. Much of the
east coast will rise up; in some cases to significant levels. The great lakes formed will make
travel by boat a necessity.
Those left alive will find it hard to exist without power and transport.

The time is coming when Jesus Christ Himself will tell His people plainly when this to
happen. His people will be alerted to shift away from areas of danger before this time of
upheaval starts and animals and birds will try to leave the danger areas.
_____________________
These events will come. They may come over time or many may come suddenly. They may
happen very soon or be a few years away—we may not know the hour but we do know the
time is short. Therefore remember the words God spoke to Solomon when the temple was
dedicated:
'When I shut up the heavens so that there is no rain, or command the
locust to devour the land, or send pestilence among my people, if my
people who are called by my name humble themselves, and pray and
seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from
heaven and will forgive their sin and heal their land.'

Remember a warning has been given. It is near. The Lord will bring it
Anonymous Coward
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11/23/2012 06:15 AM
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From J.Seach blog:

Growth of #Tongariro volcanic complex (New Zealand) [link to www.tandfonline.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28328116


hello AC from russia

thank you for this link, i havent come across it before

john seach is an amazing guy, i have read other articles about him

he lives and breathes for volcanoes, they are his life and his passion
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New Zealand volcano ‘good for tourists’

The volcanic activity on New Zealand’s North Island may ultimately do more to lure tourists than deter them, local tourist officials have claimed.

Mount Tongariro, which stands alongside the peak that featured as Mount Doom in Lord of the Rings, erupted for five minutes on November 21, sending a plume of ash and gas more than a mile into the air. Several flights were cancelled as a result.
Experts say there is a “significant possibility” the volcano will erupt again, but the news is not discouraging locals, the New Zealand Times reports.
Mike Smith of Visit Ruapehu, an official tourism organisation in the area, said: "For now we're in the spotlight, and sometimes that can turn out to be a positive".
“If it’s short term, which we all hope it is, then these things have a funny way of working out in a positive way.
“If it’s longer term, and particularly over a number of weeks, then it’s more challenging.”

Since the eruption, flights have resumed and a travel advisory for the area has been lifted – although the Tongariro Alpine Crossing, the best known local trek, is closed until the weekend while the risk of further volcanic activity is assessed.
Another local mayor was also optimistic about the eruptions, saying that it was “great …to be promoted on the world stage.”
Mount Tongariro is one of three active volcanoes in Tongariro National Park, which were used as a backdrop for the Peter Jackson-directed trilogy. It previously erupted in August, for the first time in 115 years.
It would not be the first time a natural disaster has boosted visitor numbers. The eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland in 2010 – which caused widespread disruption to flights – ultimately attracted many visitors hoping for a glimpse of the country’s volatile natural powers.
Research carried out by First Choice suggested that incoming travellers to Iceland were boosted by 12 per cent later that year, despite an initial dip.
On an intriguing infographic, it argued that natural disasters can have "interesting and counter-intuitive" effects on tourism.
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Volcano eruptions 'a positive' for NZ tourism

[link to www.smh.com.au]

New Zealand tourism operators are hoping the "significant probability" that Mt Tongariro will erupt again in the next week could be good for them.
Tongariro's Te Maari crater erupted for about five minutes on Wednesday afternoon, emitting a plume of ash and gas up to 4km into the air.
It sent trampers on the popular Tongariro Alpine Crossing scurrying down the mountain and forced the cancellation of Air New Zealand flights to regional airports at Taupo, Rotorua and Gisborne.

But in an area known for its volcanic activity, the international publicity from an eruption can be helpful - provided it doesn't go on too long.

"For now we're in the spotlight, and sometimes that can turn out to be a positive," Visit Ruapehu general manager Mike Smith said.
"If it's short term, which we all hope it is, then these things have a funny way of working out in a positive way.
"If it's longer term, and particularly over a number of weeks, then it's more challenging."
The volcano burst into life for the first time in 115 years in August, when an eruption sent rocks smashing into nearby Ketetahi Hut used as trampers' accommodation, but only ash and gas were ejected on Wednesday.
Civil Defence says the threat related to the eruption has passed and a national advisory has been cancelled.
"However, GNS Science indicates that there remains a significant probability of sudden eruption within the next week," Civil Defence said in a statement.
This may prompt Civil Defence to issue a new advisory or warning.
GNS Science says although volcanic activity on Tongariro has remained at a low level since the eruption, there had been no warning observed before it occurred.
"Future eruptions could also occur with little or no warning," it said.

The volcanic alert level stands at two, signalling minor eruptive activity and the aviation colour code had been decreased from red to orange, indicating that a volcanic eruption is under way but with little or no ash being produced.
Meanwhile, Air New Zealand has resumed flights to and from Rotorua, Taupo and Gisborne as the ash cloud from the eruption was cleared to the east of the country.
The Alpine Crossing remains off-limits to trampers for at least three days.
Last week, GNS warned there was increased activity underneath nearby Mt Ruapehu but a link between the two has been dismissed.

Read more: [link to www.smh.com.au]
Read more: [link to www.smh.com.au]
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[link to www.smh.com.au]

video
HIKERS RECOUNT FLIGHT FROM ERUPTION
A hiking group from Tamatea Intermediate School got a close-up experience of the Mount Tongariro eruption in New Zealand on Wednesday.


Read more: [link to www.smh.com.au]
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Tongariro eruptions could go on for nine months – GNS

[link to www.nbr.co.nz]

Mt Tongariro could keep erupting for up to nine months, GNS volcanologist Brad Scott says.

Based on the mountain's last cycle of eruptions in the 1890s, it could keep blowing its top intermittently for weeks, or months, the scientist said this morning.

The August eruption was a "vent-clearing blast and naturally more explosive", he says.

Now that there is an open vent, it is easier for eruptions to occur.

GNS volcanologists are meeting this morning to assess the situation.

---------------------------------------

Nov 21 / UPDATED: Lake Taupo’s annual cycle challenge is under way, with Mt Tongariro’s latest eruption looking "just like another cloud".

GeoNet says the mountain erupted at 1.30pm today – almost four months since an eruption in the same area on Te Maari crater.

Air New Zealand says flights operating to some airports east of Mt Tongariro may be delayed or cancelled as a result of the eruption.

The earlier eruption closed the Tongariro alpine crossing until Labour weekend.

The Lake Taupo cycle challenge began at midday with the enduro riders starting the first of their eight laps of the lake.

Within minutes of the eruption, organiser Hayden Dickason had more marshals out on the course to warn the cyclists of the volcanic activity and to check which direction the wind was blowing.

He says he needs to keep a watch on any ash, because he does not want riders breathing it in.

Mr Dickason told NBR ONLINE he has a contingency plan in place.

The majority of the 8500 entrants will ride just one lap of the lake on Saturday.

“For event day itself, in the unlikely event something big happens we’ve definitely got contingency plans in place to alert people straight away.

"Obviously, we also work with civil defence and police. Should the untoward happen when we need to hold the ride, we’ve got destinations around the lake where people can gather.”

Mr Dickason says he saw the eruption from his office window and because the mountain was covered in cloud at that stage,it just looked like another cloud peeping out the top.

Civil defence has issued a volcanic activity warning and says light volcanic ash fall can be anticipated downwind of Tongariro and may affect Waikato, Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne and Bay of Plenty.

Civil defence says more information will come later in the day from the Department of Conservation and other local authorities with up on the mountain.

Air New Zealand says it is working closely with the Civil Aviation Authority, the MetService and other authorities to keep up to date with ash movement and forecasts.

General manager airline operations and safety, Captain David Morgan, who is also chief pilot, says they are working with the relevant authorities to safely make adjustments to flight routes to ensure aircraft remain clear of any ash.

Passengers are advised to check the Air NZ website for flight arrivals and departures information.
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Re: WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
nothing to see here, move along please

--------------

Volcano graph lit up by lightning

[link to home.nzcity.co.nz]

Spikes on seismographs around Mt Tongariro seen on the GeoNet website were caused by lightning strikes and not the mountain, which was quiet overnight.

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23 November 2012
A series of spikes in seismograph measurements at Tongariro National Park overnight were due to lightning and not volcanic activity, scientists say.

Mt Tongariro was quiet overnight on Thursday, about a day and a half after the mountain's Te Maari crater spewed ash and gas up to 4km in the air in Wednesday afternoon's eruption.

People watching the GeoNet website may have noticed some spikes at the Oturere seismograph station but GNS scientist Nico Fournier says they have nothing to do with the earth.

"These were caused by lightning from thunderstorms in the Tongariro National Park," Dr Fournier said.

"They were not real earthquakes and were not caused by any of the volcanoes."

He said lightning creates a lot of noise when it strikes the ground that can be detected by seismometers and acoustic sensors.

"The nature of signal recorded differs from that caused by volcanoes, allowing scientists to discriminate them from real earthquakes."

The GNS team was hoping to take measurements of gases coming from Mt Tongariro by sending a plane up to the mountain but Dr Fournier said weather on Friday could make that difficult.

"We need a good view and ... today's not looking essentially promising," he told Radio New Zealand.

Dr Fournier said the volcano had been remarkably quiet overnight, but that doesn't mean it's calming down.

"The volcano can pretty much erupt at any time. The last eruption was only a few days ago so it's still pretty unstable, and it can occur with little or no warning at all."

He said Mt Ruapehu had also been quiet but there was still a slightly elevated risk.
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Small quake in volcanic area

[link to home.nzcity.co.nz]

A small earthquake with a magnitude of 3.1 has been measured in the Central North Island volcanic region about 10km southwest of Ohakune.

23 November 2012


A small earthquake has been felt in the Central North Island volcanic area, days after Mt Tongariro's latest eruption.

The 3.1 magnitude quake was located 10km southwest of Ohakune at a depth of 10km, a GNS alert said.

It comes two days after Tongariro's Te Maari crater erupted for about five minutes on Wednesday afternoon, emitting a plume of ash and gas up to 4km into the air.
taniatarn

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Havent had a chance to catch up on your thread properly...some interesting reading to do tomorrow!

hf

I just wanted to briefly talk about the quakes off Whakatane again...

There are two distinct areas...one is the dormant volcano Moutohoura Island, otherwise known as Whale Island
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

....and the other is about 8km away to the north where there is another small group of islands...

[link to img32.imageshack.us]

This area is right in the line to White and back to the TPV so not inconceivable that this area is about the flare up as well...
 Quoting: taniatarn


I wonder if they monitor the hot springs on this island and keep an eye on activity...
 Quoting: taniatarn


oh, does whale island have hot springs?

does anyone live there?
 Quoting: Tauranga



Yes it has active hot springs
" This is still an area of volcanic activity and there are hot springs on the island in Sulphur Valley, McEwans Bay, and Sulphur Bay."

and it is uninhabited....bit worrying...

Last Edited by taniatarn on 11/23/2012 03:40 PM
Interested observer of all things interesting!

Please note : Where appropriate for posted images/ graphs I acknowledge the New Zealand GeoNet project and its sponsors EQC, GNS Science and LINZ, for providing data/images used in my study and analyses of Volcanic and Earthquake information in New Zealand.
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3D map reveals New Zealand's underwater realm

[link to www.stuff.co.nz]
image of the poster

Niwa has released a high resolution map which gives a fresh insight into the shape of New Zealand's diverse marine realm.

It is an updated version of the Undersea New Zealand map published in 1997 and is viewable in 3D.

It shows the shape of the seafloor within one of the world's most extensive deepwater jurisdictions, detailing the submarine trenches, underwater volcanoes and active submarine canyons.

The map is generated from digital elevation models using about 1.5 million square kilometres of multibeam coverage with over a third of that mapped by Niwa's research vessel Tangaroa.

"Recent technological advances mean we can now map the seabed in detail approaching that of terrestrial (land) mapping," says Niwa's ocean geologist Dr Helen Neil.

The map, which is publicly available from Monday, shows the abundance of sinuous canyons and channels that slice through the continental margin, allowing sediment from the land to flow into the deep ocean, both west and east of New Zealand.

For more information visit:
[link to www.niwa.co.nz]

------

wow, these maps are very cool:

Posters

Science Centres: Coasts and Oceans

NIWA produces a range of high-quality informative posters for schools, industry groups, and the general public.

Placing an Order

All prices are quoted in New Zealand dollars (NZ$) and include postage and handling. Note that NZ$5 is added if shipping overseas. Some posters may no longer be available.

Please complete our order form to submit your order.

Alternatively, please contact us for further information or to place an order.

PDF files are available for the following posters:

Rip currents English
Rip currents Maori
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Havent had a chance to catch up on your thread properly...some interesting reading to do tomorrow!

hf

I just wanted to briefly talk about the quakes off Whakatane again...

There are two distinct areas...one is the dormant volcano Moutohoura Island, otherwise known as Whale Island
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

....and the other is about 8km away to the north where there is another small group of islands...

[link to img32.imageshack.us]

This area is right in the line to White and back to the TPV so not inconceivable that this area is about the flare up as well...
 Quoting: taniatarn


I wonder if they monitor the hot springs on this island and keep an eye on activity...
 Quoting: taniatarn


oh, does whale island have hot springs?

does anyone live there?
 Quoting: Tauranga



Yes it has active hot springs and it is uninhabited....bit worrying...
 Quoting: taniatarn


how can we find out, i wonder?

i wonder if anyone visits whale island, ie if boaties go there...

recently i was wondering how we could find out about the increased heat etc in lake taupo, because M had said we should be watching for bubbling in the lake

and she suggested boaties would be the best people to ask, which is a great idea

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