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Message Subject WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH
Poster Handle Anonymous Coward
Post Content
Large quake probability continues to drop

[link to www.stuff.co.nz]

The probability of a large aftershock somewhere in the central Canterbury earthquake zone continues to drop as a result of lower seismic activity in recent months.

In GNS Science's updated calculations released today, the probability of a magnitude 5.0 to 5.4 shake in the next 12 months is 69 per cent, compared with 82 per cent in January.

Over the same period there is a 29 per cent chance of a magnitude 5.5 to 5.9 quake in the aftershock zone, which runs from the foothills in the west to Pegasus Bay in the east and from Rangiora in the north to Tai Tapu in the south.
That has fallen from a 39 per cent probability in January.

The chance of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 aftershock is now 9 per cent, down from 13 per cent in January, while there is only a 2 per cent probability of a magnitude 6.5 to 6.9 event in the next year, down from 4 per cent at the start of the year.

GNS Science says the probability of a magnitude 7 or higher quake in the next year remains unchanged at 1 per cent.
 Quoting: Tauranga


This is a perfect example of meaningless bullshit. They 'calculate' the possibility of new quakes by the prevalence of the past ones - as if that's the only guide they need.

If it worked that way then the original big ones that hit ChCh shouldn't have occurred - but they did.

Meaningless rubbish.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28089232


Ha! I wrote a first comment to that very article politely inquiring upon thier "scientific" accuracy prior to Sep 4 2010 but the moderator didn't "approve" it. It seems one is allowed to gripe but not make too much sense or get close to the truth of things. Funny that.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 142629


lols, AC, that is funny (and quite a concern) isnt it

we seem to understand what is going on volcanically and seismically in nz a lot better than they do, which seems rather weird, doesnt it...

maybe they will start listening to us (and maori people who understand the connectedness of our volcanoes and quakes) one day

thanks for posting, nice to have your input here
 
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