One can often see the "tinder" accumulating in the forest, see the tinder dry conditions that exist at that moment, and know the forest is PRIMED for a major forest fire ... but still now know either WHEN that fire will break out, OR HOW it will be caused.

A "forest" and "forest fire" analogy are in fact I think the easiest way to understand the process. Forest fires occure regularly, in fact MUST OCCURE in order to clear out the deadwood and tinder that naturally occures. The longer a fire is kept from consuming the deadwood and tinder the LARGER AND FIERCER the forest fire will be when it eventually occures, which it WILL.

The current financial system is filled with deadwood and tinder ... and is primed for a major fire. The Fires that would consume that deadwood and timber in smaller more frequent fires have been kept at bay for so long that when the next one hits it can quickly grow to gigantic size. All it needs is an outside "spark" to set it off, a spark that could be a small unattended campfire, a lighting strike, or basically anything that upsets the applecart of regularity in the system. (for this financial Black Swan think of it potentially being a default, war, natural disaster ... anything in fact that interrupts the regular flow of money that is passed through the "system" on a daily basis - since the entire system is premised at a foundation level upon the money flows from one party to another party continuing uniterrupted on a daily basis)