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Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?

 
TheTruthWorker
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Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Some people on GLP predict earthquakes. When they do you need to account for pure chance. I publish dates I expect to see a significant quake. I always use a 3 day window including the target date plus or minus a day.

Odds of an earthquake within a 3 day window:

43% = On USGS Significant quake list = Recent study 209 quake dates/493 days
43% = Magnitude 6.3 or greater = 1 within 7 days x 3 / 7 days
21% = Magnitude 6.8 or greater = 1 within 14 days x 3 / 14 days
10% = Magnitude 7.1 or greater = 1 within 30 days x 3 / 30 days

I am testing 2 theories for predicting specific dates with higher probability of a significant quake based on a study past patterns:

1) NEO Count: I have determined that the more near earth objects making a close approach to Earth on any given date then there is a higher likelihood of a quake: Thread: AMAZING new discovery... earthquakes influenced by asteroids!

May 19, 2012 had 8 NEOs on that date. The result was significant quake in Italy on May 20th plus overall increase in rumblings during May 18 to May 20 window. See above link for other past dates with high NEO count and results. Hits = 78%

2) NEO History: When an asteroid has a consistent recent history of earthquakes within a day of past close approach dates then there is a higher likelihood of a quake. When I find these I post the object’s name and related history. Over past few months I identified and posted 6 potential quake dates based on NEO history and 4 had significant quakes within a day = 67%

I will post high probability dates as I identify them. Have fun watching me HIT or FAIL with these dates.

Last Edited by TheTruthWorker on 05/23/2012 01:37 AM
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Possible future significant quake date:

May 25, 2012 based on 6 NEOs on that date, current chance = 65%+. Two of the NEOs have earthquake histories but not totally consistent. If another NEO is discovered for that date then odds increase to 75%+
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Possible future significant quake date:

June 15, 2012 based on 5 NEOs on that date, current chance = 60%+. If more NEOs are discovered for that date then odds increase.
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Possible future significant quake date:

June 25, 2012 based on 8 NEOs on that date, current chance = 75%+
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
The only odd thing would be predicting that there is going to be a quake today.

SmileyWink
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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Thread: JUST DISCOVERED Asteroid makes close pass by Moon and Earth on May 23
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Possible future significant quake date:

May 25, 2012 based on 6 NEOs on that date, current chance = 65%+. Two of the NEOs have earthquake histories but not totally consistent. If another NEO is discovered for that date then odds increase to 75%+
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


Chart using NEO count averages before and after each day to visually spot high count periods.

This one shows May 19 and May 25 as above average

f-05-2012
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Possible future significant quake date:

June 25, 2012 based on 8 NEOs on that date, current chance = 75%+
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


Chart using NEO count averages before and after each day to visually spot high count periods.

This one shows June 15 and June 25 as above average

f-06-2012
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
quake
Xerces

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05/23/2012 12:05 AM
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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Count 188 days from the last 7.0 or greater quake.
"A truth's initial commotion is directly proportional to how deeply the lie was believed. When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker, a raving lunatic."
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Count 188 days from the last 7.0 or greater quake.
 Quoting: Xerces


2011 03 11 054624.12 38.30 142.37 29 9.0 MwWCMT
= Sep 15
Magnitude 7.3 FIJI REGION September 15, 2011

2011 04 07 143243.29 38.28 141.59 42 7.1 MwWCMT
= Oct 12
Magnitude 5.3 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON October 13, 2011

2011 06 24 030939.47 52.05 -171.84 52 7.3 MwWCMT
= Dec 29
Magnitude 6.6 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA December 27, 2011

2011 07 06 190318.26 -29.54 -176.34 17 7.6 MwWCMT
= Jan 10
Magnitude 7.2 OFF COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA January 10, 2012

2011 07 10 005710.80 38.03 143.26 23 7.0 MwWCMT
= Jan 14
Magnitude 6.6 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS January 15, 2012

2011 08 20 165502.81 -18.36 168.14 32 7.2 MwWCMT
= Feb 24

2011 08 24 174611.65 -7.64 -74.53 147 7.0 MwWCMT
= Feb 28
Magnitude 6.7 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA February 26, 2012

2011 09 03 225540.92 -20.67 169.72 185 7.0 MwWCMT
= March 9
Magnitude 6.7 VANUATU March 09, 2012

2011 09 15 193104.08 -21.61 -179.53 644 7.3 MwWCMT
= March 21
Magnitude 6.6 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA March 21, 2012
Magnitude 7.4 OAXACA, MEXICO March 20, 2012

2011 10 21 175716.10 -28.99 -176.24 33 7.4 MwWCMT
= April 26

2011 10 23 104122.93 38.72 43.51 16 7.1 MwWCMT
= April 28
Magnitude 6.7 TONGA April 28, 2012


2011 12 14 050459.27 -7.56 146.80 140 7.1 MwWCMT
= June 19

2012 01 10 183659.08 2.43 93.21 19 7.2 MwWCMT
= July 16

7+ quakes [link to neic.usgs.gov]
Archive [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
DAY COUNT: [link to cgi.cs.duke.edu]

Wow... very interesting
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Count 188 days from the last 7.0 or greater quake.
 Quoting: Xerces


Thanks

Thread: 188 Day Earthquake Cycle Prophecy
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
quake
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker

TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Thread: Near earth Asteroid 2012 KP24 0.1 LD!

roids
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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Thread: EARTHQUAKE WATCH: Magnitude 6.6+ within a day of June 7, 2012

roids
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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?


Today, it has occurred when Eclipse Supermoon EARTHQUAKE: 6.1 scale in Sukabumi, West Java - Indonesia.
Tq

[link to gobh.blog.com]
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?


Today, it has occurred when Eclipse Supermoon EARTHQUAKE: 6.1 scale in Sukabumi, West Java - Indonesia.
Tq

[link to gobh.blog.com]
 Quoting: Earthquake


I'm watching for a 6.6+ June 6-7-8. That one would not fall within current watch.
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Location?

Post by AwakeinTassie in ELQ thread may point to an event in Chile or South America next. Looking at recent quake map also shows lack of release compared to rest of ring of fire.
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Location?

Post by AwakeinTassie in ELQ thread may point to an event in Chile or South America next. Looking at recent quake map also shows lack of release compared to rest of ring of fire.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


Ooops! Posted to wrong thread... quote at
Thread: EARTHQUAKE WATCH: Magnitude 6.6+ within a day of June 7, 2012 (Page 3)
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Thread: Earthquake prediction - To hit within 36 hours of June 29

6.3 -- 2012/06/29 21:07:33 -- NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
MatrixLNIN11

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06/30/2012 01:31 PM

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Some people on GLP predict earthquakes. When they do you need to account for pure chance. I publish dates I expect to see a significant quake. I always use a 3 day window including the target date plus or minus a day.

Odds of an earthquake within a 3 day window:

43% = On USGS Significant quake list = Recent study 209 quake dates/493 days
43% = Magnitude 6.3 or greater = 1 within 7 days x 3 / 7 days
21% = Magnitude 6.8 or greater = 1 within 14 days x 3 / 14 days
10% = Magnitude 7.1 or greater = 1 within 30 days x 3 / 30 days

I am testing 2 theories for predicting specific dates with higher probability of a significant quake based on a study past patterns:

1) NEO Count: I have determined that the more near earth objects making a close approach to Earth on any given date then there is a higher likelihood of a quake: Thread: AMAZING new discovery... earthquakes influenced by asteroids!

May 19, 2012 had 8 NEOs on that date. The result was significant quake in Italy on May 20th plus overall increase in rumblings during May 18 to May 20 window. See above link for other past dates with high NEO count and results. Hits = 78%

2) NEO History: When an asteroid has a consistent recent history of earthquakes within a day of past close approach dates then there is a higher likelihood of a quake. When I find these I post the object’s name and related history. Over past few months I identified and posted 6 potential quake dates based on NEO history and 4 had significant quakes within a day = 67%

I will post high probability dates as I identify them. Have fun watching me HIT or FAIL with these dates.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker



So what are the odds of 13 days in advance???

;)

Thread: Earthquake prediction - To hit within 36 hours of June 29 (Page 2)

Last Edited by MatrixLNIN11 on 06/30/2012 04:03 PM
MatrixLNIN11

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06/30/2012 01:36 PM

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Do I get a tootsie pop??

Nailed an exact date 13 days in advance which according to your ODDS, is LESS than a 20% chance of success and correct prediction.

So what is a 90% hit rate??

;)
MatrixLNIN11

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06/30/2012 01:39 PM

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Some people on GLP predict earthquakes. When they do you need to account for pure chance. I publish dates I expect to see a significant quake. I always use a 3 day window including the target date plus or minus a day.

Odds of an earthquake within a 3 day window:

43% = On USGS Significant quake list = Recent study 209 quake dates/493 days
43% = Magnitude 6.3 or greater = 1 within 7 days x 3 / 7 days
21% = Magnitude 6.8 or greater = 1 within 14 days x 3 / 14 days
10% = Magnitude 7.1 or greater = 1 within 30 days x 3 / 30 days

I am testing 2 theories for predicting specific dates with higher probability of a significant quake based on a study past patterns:

1) NEO Count: I have determined that the more near earth objects making a close approach to Earth on any given date then there is a higher likelihood of a quake: Thread: AMAZING new discovery... earthquakes influenced by asteroids!

May 19, 2012 had 8 NEOs on that date. The result was significant quake in Italy on May 20th plus overall increase in rumblings during May 18 to May 20 window. See above link for other past dates with high NEO count and results. Hits = 78%

2) NEO History: When an asteroid has a consistent recent history of earthquakes within a day of past close approach dates then there is a higher likelihood of a quake. When I find these I post the object’s name and related history. Over past few months I identified and posted 6 potential quake dates based on NEO history and 4 had significant quakes within a day = 67%

I will post high probability dates as I identify them. Have fun watching me HIT or FAIL with these dates.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker



So what are the odds of a 1 day window 13 days in advance???

;)

Thread: Earthquake prediction - To hit within 36 hours of June 29 (Page 2)
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


and if you like patterns, you really should be supporting these videos:







part 4 will be mind blowing

and part 5 has to do largely with the subject of this thread... although not exactly about NEO's in the context of your OP, however EUT is the BIGGER and more important common denominator!... so its a bit more obvious and something I've been "TEACHING" here so to speak, for almost 2 years now. ;))

Last Edited by MatrixLNIN11 on 06/30/2012 01:47 PM
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Do I get a tootsie pop??

Nailed an exact date 13 days in advance which according to your ODDS, is LESS than a 20% chance of success and correct prediction.

So what is a 90% hit rate??

;)
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


Help me out here.

1) Quake occurred on June 29 at 21:07 UTC, right? That is also still June 29th in the US. Where do you get June 30th?

2) Your window was 4 days (June 29-30-1-2), Right?
"The next large quake window coming up is from JUNE 30TH to JULY 1ST +/- 1 day." How is that a one day window?

I will give you a hit but you say it was on the EXACT date with a 1 day window. How is that?

If it is a 4 day window then odds are 13% x 4 = 52%
MatrixLNIN11

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06/30/2012 03:40 PM

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Do I get a tootsie pop??

Nailed an exact date 13 days in advance which according to your ODDS, is LESS than a 20% chance of success and correct prediction.

So what is a 90% hit rate??

;)
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


Help me out here.

1) Quake occurred on June 29 at 21:07 UTC, right? That is also still June 29th in the US. Where do you get June 30th?

2) Your window was 4 days (June 29-30-1-2), Right?
"The next large quake window coming up is from JUNE 30TH to JULY 1ST +/- 1 day." How is that a one day window?

I will give you a hit but you say it was on the EXACT date with a 1 day window. How is that?

If it is a 4 day window then odds are 13% x 4 = 52%
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


NO, you are correct... I was focusing more on the 30th aspect which did appear for this quake... thanks for correcting...

however still a 13 day advance ;)

but what does this date say M8?

Saturday, June 30, 2012 at 05:07:32 AM at epicenter

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Last Edited by MatrixLNIN11 on 06/30/2012 04:06 PM
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Do I get a tootsie pop??

Nailed an exact date 13 days in advance which according to your ODDS, is LESS than a 20% chance of success and correct prediction.

So what is a 90% hit rate??

;)
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


Help me out here.

1) Quake occurred on June 29 at 21:07 UTC, right? That is also still June 29th in the US. Where do you get June 30th?

2) Your window was 4 days (June 29-30-1-2), Right?
"The next large quake window coming up is from JUNE 30TH to JULY 1ST +/- 1 day." How is that a one day window?

I will give you a hit but you say it was on the EXACT date with a 1 day window. How is that?

If it is a 4 day window then odds are 13% x 4 = 52%
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


NO, you are correct... I was focusing more on the 30th aspect which did appear for this quake... thanks for correcting...

however still a 13 day advance ;)

but what does this date say M8?

Saturday, June 30, 2012 at 05:07:32 AM at epicenter

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


I refrain from posting too far in advance as thread gets lost but here are some current watch dates based on above average NEO counts, quake within a day of:

07/05/12
08/08/12
09/14/12
10/17/12
10/28/12
MatrixLNIN11

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
I refrain from posting too far in advance as thread gets lost but here are some current watch dates based on above average NEO counts, quake within a day of:

07/05/12
08/08/12
09/14/12
10/17/12
10/28/12
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


around 7/5 I'd agree may be a good bet
8/8 & 9/14 not as likely Imo
10/17 to 10/21 a good window
and I'd say earlier than 10/28... more like 10/25 to the 26th would be better.
Anonymous Coward
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06/30/2012 06:08 PM
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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
I refrain from posting too far in advance as thread gets lost but here are some current watch dates based on above average NEO counts, quake within a day of:

07/05/12
08/08/12
09/14/12
10/17/12
10/28/12
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


around 7/5 I'd agree may be a good bet
8/8 & 9/14 not as likely Imo
10/17 to 10/21 a good window
and I'd say earlier than 10/28... more like 10/25 to the 26th would be better.
 Quoting: MatrixLNIN11


:144:
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Thread: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within a day of July 5, 2012
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Thread: May 5 target date for earthquake influenced by asteroids
TheTruthWorker (OP)

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11/05/2012 12:25 PM
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Re: Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
Hold off on your BS, Hydra. I have been following these asteroid threads for some time now. Very good accuracy rate.

Not necessarily a whopper EQ, but usually some EQ activity. I believe where the asteroid's approach to Earth corresponds to a specific place on the earth for the EQ. I don't know if it is magnetism, etc. OP has a better handle on this than me.
 Quoting: Old Coot

Thread: EARTHQUAKE within the next 24 hours on October 18 UTC due to ASTEROIDS
Therefore I predict a significant earthquake magnitude 6.3 or more between during a 3-day window of October 16-17-18
Even with a statistic probabillity of 98% he FAILED

Thread: 6.3+ earthquake expected within 12 hours
No 6.3 within even the next four days.

ASO

It's not rocket science with a statistical probabillity of 98% to predict an EQ and get a hit.
Whenever he takes a smaller window like 12 or 24 hours or a quake bigger 7 he almost always failed.


.
 Quoting: Hydra


Dates with a quake 6.3+ or greater

There is only one chance to get a hit on any given date even if there were multiple quakes on the same date. However there is the chance to get up to 3 hits during a 3 day window if a quake hit on all three days. Here are the stats from USGS for past two years:

Nov 1, 2010 to Oct 31, 2011
70 quake dates
5.9 average per month
20% probability on any date
60% probability over 3 day window

Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 31, 2012
54 quake dates
4.5 average per month
15% probability on any date
45% probability over 3 day window

Over past 12 months we average a 6.3+ quake about once a week. For anyone to claim there is a 98% chance of a 6.3+ quake during a 3 day window, I'd just ask "On which planet?"
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


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