WEATHER UPDATE : A dangerous wildfire situation will set up across the West today!!!

9 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

The news media will undoubtedly hype what will be #Isaac to the utmost degree as it possibly impacts Republican Convention next week in FL

4 hJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Infrared satellite image of Tropical Depression #9, forecast to become #Isaac later today [link to yfrog.com]

The two weeks has seen over 200% of normal rainfall from Alabama to the Carolina's. Isaac could bring flooding to that area.

Yes, local news in Jax said we will have flooding rains all week. During Debby the dirt road in front of our farm was 3 to 4 feet deep and running like a river, complete with fish and one gator.

This Floridian says OP is correct.

thanks

21 mJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm #Isaac this morning: [link to yfrog.com]

Flash Flood Risk for Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tucson [link to www.accuweather.com]

Southwest Soaker On Tap Today and Tonight [link to www.accuweather.com]

Orlando has been getting steady rain for the past couple of weeks. Now a hurricane is headed our way.

Take care!!!

15 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Developing: NHC forecast track of newly-formed TD #10; forecast to #Joyce by tonight [link to 1.usa.gov]

17 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Developing: Tropical Depression #10 forms out in the Atlantic, 1,385 miles WSW of Cape Verde Islands [link to DON'T_USE-THIS]

18 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the Atlantic. It might be named Joyce by tonight or Thu AM. [link to www.accuweather.com]

1 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

@satmarbook East Coast of Florida and eastern Carolinas may get hit. Keep up to date with our track map here: [link to www.accuweather.com]

Current projections bring Isaac to FL during the first part of next week. Map & Details: [link to www.accuweather.com]

Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Mammatus clouds over downtown #Minneapolis as storms approach from the west: [link to twitpic.com] #mnwx

33 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Tornado watch in effect for parts of Canada: Alberta [link to DON'T_USE-THIS] and Saskatchewan: [link to DON'T_USE-THIS]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Latest European model has Isaac going into New Orleans as a Major Hurricane. RT @accu_henry

46 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Clark Co., NV getting hit with heavy rain. 1.75" since 12am. Several roads/intersections closed in Henderson, flash flooding.

6 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Las Vegas & parts of CA seeing flooding rain this evening LIVE UPDATES: [link to www.accuweather.com]

Johnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Picture: Significant flooding in the Las, Vegas, NV area via @plooneytunes [link to DON'T_USE-THIS]

51 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Developing: Numerous reports of flooding, closed roads in the Las Vegas area from heavy rainfall [link to DON'T_USE-THIS]

34 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

NHC updated forecast tracks of #Isaac [link to yfrog.com] TD #10 [link to yfrog.com] (5 pm EDT advisory)

39 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Developing: Hurricane Watch issued for all of Haiti as #Isaac (45 mph winds) approaches

40 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Developing: Dominican Republic issues Hurricane Warnings for South Coast From Isla Soaona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border

30 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Latest official NHC track forecast for #Isaac [link to 1.usa.gov]

3 hSevere Studios‏@severestudios

RT @twc_hurricane: Tropical Storm Joyce: 11 AM ET, 40 mph winds, 1006 mb, moving WNW at 17 mph.

17 sJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Developing: Numerous reports of waterspouts off Edisto Beach, Edisto Island, SC area (Tornado Warning): [link to kamala.cod.edu] …

Unconfirmed report of 2 waterspouts 500-110 yards offshore of Edisto Beach State Park in Colleton, SC at 4:15 pm EDT

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground
Reports of flooded, impassable roads and mudslides coming out of Puerto Rico due to #Isaac's rainfall.

699
WTNT44 KNHC 241455
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA...THE LARGE CENTRAL AREA OF
LIGHT WINDS HAS SHRUNK AS THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED
66 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG
WITH SFMR BIAS-CORRECTED WIND ESTIMATES NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE 12Z POSITION USED A MEAN CENTER...WHICH RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT. SINCE THEN...ISAAC APPEARS TO HAVE ACQUIRED A STRONGER
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVED NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72
HR...STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES NEAR
THE CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGE
BETWEEN ISAAC AND THE TROUGH...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH
RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR...AND THUS THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED EASTWARD.

WHILE THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC STILL
DOES NOT FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN EARLIER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ISAAC COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
HISPANIOLA. LAND INTERACTION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY FROM 24-48
HR...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT AFTER
IT IS SEEN WHAT STRUCTURE ISAAC HAS AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
ISAAC SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE FORECAST
SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.3N 70.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.2N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 20.9N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1200Z 22.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 31.0N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Search Site with Google:
[link to mesonet.agron.iastate.edu]

Severe Studios ‏@severestudios
RT @SeverePlains: GOES-14 providing rapid-scan (1 minute) satellite images of #Isaac, it's a must see: [link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu]

Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850
NWS radar estimates of the amount of rain that has fallen across Florida so far this year: [link to yfrog.com]

Severe Studios ‏@severestudios
RT @jimwxgator: models will shift, but most important issue is a city's relation to landfall. East of center always means the worst weather
39 min Severe Studios ‏@severestudios
As of 2pm EDT, #Isaac is still a Tropical Storm with winds of 60 mph. NO Watches or Warnings for U.S. yet. #tropics

Tropical Storm Isaac Gains Energy: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite flew above tropical storm Isaac in the center of the Caribbean Sea on Friday August 24, 2012, at 0613 UTC (2:13 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time). Isaac had become better organized. An analysis of rainfall from TRMM’s Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) showed an increase in intensity of rainfall in a large area around Isaac’s center of circulation. TRMM detected rain rates of over 90 millimeters (about 3.5 inches) per hour within several strong convective storms.

TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) data were used to make a three-dimensional view of Isaac’s structure. This view revealed that some storms near Isaac’s center were reaching heights of about 16 kilometers (10 miles). These towers contained Isaac’s heaviest rains and acted to energize the core of the storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicted that Isaac would intensify while moving northwestward toward Hispaniola on August 24, 2012.
[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]

NWS @ Lake Charles‏@NWS_LCH

Tropical Storm ISAAC Hurricane (64-kt) Wind Speed Probabilities - 0.1 Degree Multiple Basins (.kmz) [link to 1.usa.gov]

Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850
Developing: Law enforcement reported a tornado on the ground near Onley, VA, moving NW at 20 mph (12:53 pm EDT)

1 h Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850
*All coastal residents from SE Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida are urged to stay weather aware* #Isaac

1 h Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850
Developing: Florida governor declares State of Emergency as Tropical Storm Isaac approaches the state.