Fukushima-Daiichi .. "“likely the largest radioactive noble gas release in history”

Fukushima Fallout Rivals Chernobyl

State-of-the-art analysis based on the most inclusive datasets available reveals that radioactive fallout from the Fukushima meltdown is at least as big as Chernobyl and more global in reach Dr. Mae-Wan Ho

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To make the best use of the available information and data, an international team led by Andreas Stohl at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) applied state-of-the-art atmospheric dispersion models to optimise the fit between the model calculations (simulations) and the observed measurements, thereby to obtain the most reliable source term. This top-down approach, called inverse modelling, was earlier used to make estimates of the Chernobyl source term. And members of the team have previously developed an inverse modelling method for volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gas emissions.

A first guess of release rates were based on fuel inventories and documented accident events at the site based on information provided by the Japanese government’s report [7]. The first guess was subsequently improved by inverse modelling, which combined the results of an atmospheric transport model, FLEXPART, and measurement data from several dozen stations in Japan, North America and other regions.

The simulation was driven with three-hourly operational meteorological data from two different sources: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses.

[snip]

The results obtained for the total release of Xe-133 was 15.3 EBq (uncertainty range 12.2-18.3, EBq – 1018 Bq), more than 2 x total release from Chernobyl (Chernobyl total was 5.2 EBq) and “likely the largest radioactive noble gas release in history”. This took place between 11 and 15 March 2011.

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There is much more info at the link. Dispersion models and such. The real truth about the emissions is coming out despite the efforts to obscure and deflect.

This will be all over the web tomorrow.

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That's funny, hasn't Atom-Boy been sayin' the exact opposite all along?

When everyone told him how bad it was, he asked us for proof. I knew we'd get it sooner or later, but too late to help.

And here we are now.

[snip]

It may have seemed fortunate that westerly winds prevailed during most of the accident to carry the radioactive plume offshore. But exactly during and following the period of the strongest Cs-137 releases on 14 and 15 March, as well as after another period with strong emissions on 19 March, the radioactive plume was carried over Eastern Honshu Island, where rain deposited a large fraction of Cs-137 on the land.

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On 14 March, a cyclone developed over southern Japan, and this coincided with a period of very high emissions from ventings and explosions of unit 2, unit 3 and in the spent-fuel pool of unit 4. (Details of the release events are given in an Appendix of the paper]

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A first radionuclide cloud ahead of the main plume containing only Xe-133 was transported rapidly across the North Pacific at low altitudes and arrived in western North America on 15 March (Figure 3). The first radioactive cloud skimmed along the North American seaboard because a large cyclone over the Eastern Pacific produced a southerly flow along the coastline. It was nevertheless detected at Richland, Washington State in USA. The main part of the radioactive cloud entered western North America on 17-18 March and could be detected by monitoring sites there (

Yeah. He has lost one of his main arguments. Been kinda subdued, lately.

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[snip]

On 18 March, high levels of both Xe-133 and Cs-137 can be found over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western North America. This part of the cloud was still close to the surface south of 50º. The high altitude head of the cloud with lower levels of Cs-137 had already arrived over the North Atlantic. At the same time, the radioactive cloud penetrated the subtropics and arrived at Hawaii on 19 March.

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From the Xe-133 maps (Figure 3), it can be seen that already, by 18 March, the highly radioactive plume had engulfed much of western and central North America from Canada to the USA, with radioactivity ranging well over 1 000 to 100 000 Bq or more. Some of this could be easily have been inhaled by the inhabitants.

By 22 March, contaminated air from Fukushima had circled the Northern Hemisphere and reached both the tropics as well as the polar regions (Figs. 3 and 4). Even though enhanced surface concentrations were still limited to small parts of the Northern Hemisphere, this changed quickly. In April, all measurement stations recorded an enhanced background of Xe-133. Even the Australian station Darwin started registering enhanced Xe-133 in April.

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So much for 'On The Beach'.

Sso.. looks like Oz is not going to be a refuge, after all. A little over a month for the contamination to reach.

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[snip]

These results for only two of the main radionuclides already added up to nearly 15 times the total radioactivity in the latest TEPCO estimates [8] of just over 1 EBq. If we take the amount of Cs-134 as equal to 36.6 PBq (same as for Cs-137 when measured [6]), and add the value of 500 PBq for I-131 given by TEPCO for releases into the atmosphere, as well as the rest released into the ocean (18.1 PBq), we arrive at a total of 16.0532 EBq. This is certainly more than the estimated total of 14 EBq released in Chernobyl according to the World Nuclear Association

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Tepco wrong again..

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Yup

Thread: "Stop Comparing Fukushima to Chernobyl"

[snip]

The estimates are the best available based on still very incomplete information. In their closing remarks, the authors pointed out that the data collected for the analysis come from various sources, none of which is available to the public [4]. They speculated that more useful data sets were not even accessible to the research team; stating: “Institutions having produced relevant measurement data should make them freely available,” and calling for a central data repository to be created. The analysis has only derived the source terms for two important radionuclides, and work needs to be done on others, notably I-131. This is absolutely necessary to address and mitigate the health impacts of the Fukushima catastrophe already unfolding.

The reluctance of officials to disclose information in the early days of the disaster has meant that iodine tablets were not distributed to people in the most highly contaminated areas, with the result that 44.5 % of the children showed radioactive contamination of up to 35 mSv in their thyroid gland; and an examination of more than 38 000 children in Fukushima prefecture found cysts in 35 % of the children’s thyroid gland (see [5]).

The excess deaths in the US observed by Mangano and Sherman in the 14 weeks following the accident do coincide with the arrival of high levels of radioactivity (in X-133) by day 5 (Figure 3), and by day 10 engulfed the whole of North America in both X-133 and Cs-137 (Figures 3 and 4). They wrote in the conclusion of their report [1]: “It is critical that research should proceed with all due haste, as answers are essential to early diagnosis and treatment for exposed people, particularly the children and the very young.”

The need for systematic monitoring, data-sharing, and research applies across the globe; as the available data already demonstrate, the disease burden will not be restricted to Japan.

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Time to shit or get off the pot, medical establishment.

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Mangano report:

Medical Journal Article: 14,000 U.S. Deaths Tied to Fukushima Reactor Disaster Fallout
[link to www.prnewswire.com]

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Thanks for the pin mods..

Important development.

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It is important indeed.

Thanks for posting WB!

Very noble of the Japanese indeed.

Sorry,not the Japanese but TEPCO.

Luv to the Japanese.

How did you know it was me? Thought I was on the down low..
Some people think I pick on tepco too much..

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^^^^^^^^^this

This ~ kinda' gives it away WB : )

Well it will just melt more ice at the north and south pole and i have read theorys that it also heats earths core. I feel bad for animals and children they dont deserve this.!

[link to www.greaterthings.com]

thanks for the info. right before bed. I'll sleep well

just kiddin...thanks for sharing! we are all doomed.

Here is the good news.. not so good for japan..

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[snip]

Altogether, an estimated 6.4 PBq of Cs-137, or 18 % of the total fallout until 20 April were deposited over Japanese land areas, while most of the rest fell over the North Pacific Ocean. Only 0.7 PBq or 1.9 % of the total fallout was deposited on land areas other than Japan.

Must be.. oh well, not very good at the double-naught spy game, am I?.. ;)

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[link to www.youtube.com]


good show here...alot of info. aired a few days ago
1st guest: Arnie Gundersun latest interview

Last Edited by astor on 06/12/2012 02:12 AM

where's AB with a lyrical and nonsensical refute???

we knew there was data, we followed the crumbs, we saw the videos....

Last Edited by CitizenPerth™ on 06/12/2012 12:22 AM

And ate the Cheese.

Well, I guess if a person was not aware during the period of the plume dispersion and fallout, one could retrace his steps and decide if he were exposed more than briefly to the fallout.

Outside workers, sportsmen, hikers, joggers etc., anyone outside a lot during that period, should be conscious of any health issues that could be linked to the fallout.

The same could be said for any person working or caught in the rain during the same time, and since, for that matter. There are still radioisotopes in the atmosphere that are brought to the ground in rain.

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exactly... 60 day earthbound merry-go-round....

"This took place between 11 and 15 March 2011..."


So...they are only counting the rads emitted in the first four days?????


What about everything that has been emitted since then?