Here is the track...

[link to www.usno.navy.mil]

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 05W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. TY 05W HAS RECENTLY BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON
STATUS TO TYPHOON. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE EYE
DIAMETER HAS SLOWLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS FROM 15 NM TO
10 NM AND IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) HAS FINISHED WITH NO
IDENTIFIABLE IMPACT TO THE OVERALL INTENSITY. TY 05W HAS SHIFTED TO A
NORTHWARD TRACK AT THE WARNING TIME, AND SINCE ISSUING WARNING NUMBER
28, EIR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS
TY 05W APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED TO TRACK AROUND THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EYE IN EIR AND AGREES WITH PGTW FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS BASED ON A 6.0/6.5 DVORAK FIX FROM
PGTW AND A 5.0/5.5 FROM RJTD BOTH SHOWING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND.
THIS AGREES WITH THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN EIR.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY DISPLACED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO VENT THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THE POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS YET TO TAP INTO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.