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EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 16257329
Finland
07/12/2012 10:10 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
okay OP thanks for clarifying, seems like you already got one 6+...
Anonymous Coward
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Finland
07/12/2012 10:12 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
and of course they will downgrade Afganistan into 5.7 or so.
Anonymous Coward
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07/12/2012 10:19 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
I dreamed last night that there was an earthquake. I was looking for supplies, like food and a blow-up raft, I gave a random lady some food, and joined some homeless people that had a sheltered place to stay out of the weather.

I was also helping at a doctors office, consoling people and cleaning things up. Hopefully, just a dream, but it was very lucid.
Anonymous Coward
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Finland
07/12/2012 10:27 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Nibs is coming, folks. The lull is over.
OnTheFence

User ID: 19615635
United States
07/12/2012 10:40 AM

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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Getting close:

Magnitude: 5.8
DateTime: Thursday July 12 2012, 14:00:33 UTC
Region: Hindu Kush region, Afghanistan
Depth: 190.2 km
Source: USGS Feed

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19589960
United States
07/12/2012 10:43 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
I believe he is stating that the frequency of NEO's has ramped up in recent years... not the total number found.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19199673


No the frequency is the same. They are on a path and have been for a long time, we discover more everyday ... but still they were on the same path as they were before we discovered them.

How can you base a theory on a catalogue that is still being updated on a daily basis?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 13305682
Ireland
07/12/2012 10:43 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
russia and afghanistan are hitting big.
StormeyGoddess

User ID: 19595742
United States
07/12/2012 11:06 AM

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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Wow! Impressive research. I've been doing my own research into earthquakes over the last couple of years and never even considered NEO's. Thanks for the information!
"Don't look back, you're not going that way."

"As for me and my family, we will serve the Lord.”
conform

User ID: 19433400
United States
07/12/2012 12:38 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
...You do not show the size but I'm assuming like most they are only X amount of meters long.

 Quoting: conform


I have not yet seen a correlation between size and likelihood of an asteroid/earthquake event

... I mean come on 43 MILLION MILES AWAY. There are planets a lot freaking closer than that with their own gravitational pull..

 Quoting: conform


I have never said this is due to gravitational forces. I think the link is related to "electric universe" theories where an object builds a charge, discharges it when it approaches another body (Earth), and then causes perturbations with the Sun which might be the cause. Otherwise, cause still undetermined.

... no way that a small ass rock is going to have any kind of gravitational pull on our planet or our tectonic plates.

 Quoting: conform


I agree gravitational pull is not relevant.

... And you don't need to be a math wizard to figure out 1,319 a year for the 5-5.9 scale.

 Quoting: conform


I do not forecast quakes less than 6.3+ as pure chance odds are too great.

...the average on 6-6.9 range eqs you can see the last one we had was ... M6.3 - 53km NE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu
2012-07-06 02:28:22 UTC... So it has been 6 days since our last large earthquake which is already pushing past our average now so YES we will have a larger earthquake very soon.
 Quoting: conform


Within past 12 months:

6.0+ = 147 quakes
6.3+ = 66 quakes
6.5+ = 44 quakes
6.7+ = 33 quakes
7.0+ = 15 quakes
7.4+ = 4 quakes

However, you must account for odds for a certain DATE. For example the 4 quakes 7.4+ occurred on 3 DATES. Chance of hitting a date forecast over a year is 1 in 3, not 1 in 4. We could have 60 quakes over 7.4 in a 30 day period but the chance of hitting on a certain date is still 1 in 30.

I am calling for a 6.5+ quake within 2 day window. We have not had one of this size since May 28. Yes, we may be "due" but that is not the reason behind the forecast.

... You are also giving yourself a 48 hour window making the statistical chance even higher.

 Quoting: conform


6.5+ = 44 quakes past 12 months on 38 DATES = 10% chance
Over 2 days = 20% pure chance

... You can go to spaceweather.com... Their is Literally some kind of incoming object every day...

 Quoting: conform


I do monitor spaceweather.com but I check all the ones on NASA's NEO Earth Close-Approaches list under .5 AU [link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

For July 12 there are 4 objects and 3 of them have consistent quake histories. Usually I have to look at dozens just to find one. In this case found 3 on the same day, and therefore the forecast.

... I'm calling fear-monger for attention ...

 Quoting: conform


If you review all of my earthquake predictions you see no fear mongering. I am not calling for doom. Sorry doom lovers. Just continuing to test my theories and up my hit percentages, carefully taking into account odds of chance so it is more meaningful. Would love to pick locations but not there yet.

Some ask me why I do not call for a 8.0+ quake. Because, based on the 3 different methods I use, only one date would be targeted... October 28, 2012 due to above average number of NEOs. As new NEOs are discovered, that may change.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


I re-read my post and didn't mean to come off as much of a prick as I did :p Later today when I have time i'll check your theory out some more.
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
07/12/2012 01:02 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
...You do not show the size but I'm assuming like most they are only X amount of meters long.

 Quoting: conform


I have not yet seen a correlation between size and likelihood of an asteroid/earthquake event

... I mean come on 43 MILLION MILES AWAY. There are planets a lot freaking closer than that with their own gravitational pull..

 Quoting: conform


I have never said this is due to gravitational forces. I think the link is related to "electric universe" theories where an object builds a charge, discharges it when it approaches another body (Earth), and then causes perturbations with the Sun which might be the cause. Otherwise, cause still undetermined.

... no way that a small ass rock is going to have any kind of gravitational pull on our planet or our tectonic plates.

 Quoting: conform


I agree gravitational pull is not relevant.

... And you don't need to be a math wizard to figure out 1,319 a year for the 5-5.9 scale.

 Quoting: conform


I do not forecast quakes less than 6.3+ as pure chance odds are too great.

...the average on 6-6.9 range eqs you can see the last one we had was ... M6.3 - 53km NE of Port-Olry, Vanuatu
2012-07-06 02:28:22 UTC... So it has been 6 days since our last large earthquake which is already pushing past our average now so YES we will have a larger earthquake very soon.
 Quoting: conform


Within past 12 months:

6.0+ = 147 quakes
6.3+ = 66 quakes
6.5+ = 44 quakes
6.7+ = 33 quakes
7.0+ = 15 quakes
7.4+ = 4 quakes

However, you must account for odds for a certain DATE. For example the 4 quakes 7.4+ occurred on 3 DATES. Chance of hitting a date forecast over a year is 1 in 3, not 1 in 4. We could have 60 quakes over 7.4 in a 30 day period but the chance of hitting on a certain date is still 1 in 30.

I am calling for a 6.5+ quake within 2 day window. We have not had one of this size since May 28. Yes, we may be "due" but that is not the reason behind the forecast.

... You are also giving yourself a 48 hour window making the statistical chance even higher.

 Quoting: conform


6.5+ = 44 quakes past 12 months on 38 DATES = 10% chance
Over 2 days = 20% pure chance

... You can go to spaceweather.com... Their is Literally some kind of incoming object every day...

 Quoting: conform


I do monitor spaceweather.com but I check all the ones on NASA's NEO Earth Close-Approaches list under .5 AU [link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov]

For July 12 there are 4 objects and 3 of them have consistent quake histories. Usually I have to look at dozens just to find one. In this case found 3 on the same day, and therefore the forecast.

... I'm calling fear-monger for attention ...

 Quoting: conform


If you review all of my earthquake predictions you see no fear mongering. I am not calling for doom. Sorry doom lovers. Just continuing to test my theories and up my hit percentages, carefully taking into account odds of chance so it is more meaningful. Would love to pick locations but not there yet.

Some ask me why I do not call for a 8.0+ quake. Because, based on the 3 different methods I use, only one date would be targeted... October 28, 2012 due to above average number of NEOs. As new NEOs are discovered, that may change.
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


I re-read my post and didn't mean to come off as much of a prick as I did :p Later today when I have time i'll check your theory out some more.
 Quoting: conform


Thanks. Appreciate the reply. It's all good
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
07/12/2012 01:05 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
russia and afghanistan are hitting big.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13305682


Thread: EARTHQUAKE 6.1 Magnitude shakes Kashmir Valley


2012-07-12 14:00:35.409min ago 36.69 N 71.07 E 200 mb 6.0 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN

[link to www.emsc-csem.org]

Downgraded...

2012-07-12 14:00:33.015min ago 36.61 N 70.96 E 177 mb 5.8 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
 Quoting: Earth Cries

TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
07/12/2012 01:58 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Breaking: X-Class Flare -- July 12 2012

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.youtube.com]


TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
07/13/2012 10:12 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Thread: Huge Jump in Proton and Electron Flux - Ionosphere is Burning. Major Quake Possible thru July 18
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19686727
United States
07/13/2012 11:57 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
So I do not see how your theory is even plausible there is no way that a small ass rock is going to have any kind of gravitational pull on our planet or our tectonic plates.
 Quoting: conform

Technically that is incorrect.

All mass pulls toward mass. Just because you fall toward the earth, doesn't mean the earth isn't also falling toward you.

Our recognition of the order at the atomic level is so minimal we don't see the reaction.

Also, the order of the planets in rotation is generally constant, and as you said dominating of smaller items. Not only do they generally remain in the "Elliptic Plane", and so relatively stable to earth rotation, they also remain each in a generally stable orbit, moving in fairly consistent wide berth patterns.

Thus, "centrifugal" shifting toward the equator line from interplanetary gravitational pull, would be long ago be fairly "normalized" so that atoms and corresponding molecules being pulled toward those planets, would have generally created clearance for movement through prior travels.

However, for response to "smaller" items such as asteroids, which are more easily moved off path by interaction with other planets, or perhaps esp. those traveling outside the Elliptical plane, the atomic Earth might not be as readily fluid. Especially the latter, I would think, considering what we understand of objects in motion and the relative spin of the whole of the earth's atoms.

Maybe.

Cheers!

...But such a large prediction?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19696860
Australia
07/13/2012 02:33 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
T'is Today.

bump
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 1307920
United States
07/13/2012 04:20 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
T'is Today.

bump
 Quoting: AwakeInTassie


fear
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19719942
United States
07/13/2012 09:55 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Well OP?
dettro99

User ID: 9732769
United States
07/14/2012 04:56 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
2012-07-14 08:10:32
6.4
13.70° N
141.38° E
10
South of Mariana Islands

[link to www.seismo.co.me]

[link to www.emsc-csem.org]

Last Edited by dettro99 on 07/14/2012 04:57 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19719942
United States
07/14/2012 11:30 AM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Moving the goalposts again, I expected it tbh.
TheTruthWorker (OP)

User ID: 14354297
United States
07/14/2012 08:38 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Moving the goalposts again, I expected it tbh.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19719942


What are you talking abut?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19719942
United States
07/14/2012 08:40 PM
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Re: EARTHQUAKE WATCH for within 48 hours through July 13!
Moving the goalposts again, I expected it tbh.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19719942


What are you talking abut?
 Quoting: TheTruthWorker


That was in reply to Dettro who posted way after the timeframe and under the mag you set.