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Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC

 
DoorBert

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07/26/2012 04:56 AM

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Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CONNECTICUT
SOUTHEAST INDIANA
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO
MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND ACROSS WISCONSIN.

THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY TO
MID AFTERNOON FROM INDIANA AND OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOW FAR SOUTH
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS INTO NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...OHIO
...AND INDIANA THIS MORNING WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE LOCATION OF NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE NEW AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN SEVERAL BANDS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...WHEN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...STRONG
INSTABILITY...AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS IN THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT.

SOME OF THE LARGER CITIES THAT WILL BE POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY THESE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCLUDE CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS IN
OHIO...PITTSBURGH AND PHILADELPHIA IN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK
CITY.


[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 07/26/2012 05:05 PM
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 05:02 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
According to the latest SREF run, it looks like New Jersey, Long Island, and New York City could see the greatest threat for tornadoes.

Timing is around sunset.

Good thing is that it doesn't look like they would be large tornadoes.

More like EF1 to 3 if they occur.

Stay safe all.

Will post updates.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 08:12 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Pretty much cloud free over Ohio this morning.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Solar heating will strongly destabilize the air with a heavy surge of moisture coming up from the Gulf.

Looks like a potentially rough ride for folks mid OH and east.

Keeping an eye on Pittsburgh.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 08:19 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
TWC Met - Eric Fisher

Highest instability may end up being Northeast PA though. If I were a storm, that's where I'd plan to be this afternoon

[link to twitter.com]


For weather geeks, here's the White Plains NAM sounding for this afternoon. Note the 2.17" PW value!

[link to twitter.com]
Mamma Mia
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07/26/2012 08:36 AM
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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
In Jersey and concerned; Thanks DBbump
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 08:37 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
In Jersey and concerned; Thanks DBbump
 Quoting: Mamma Mia 4701453


Stay safe Mamma Mia. Models not looking good for your area.
JanJan

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07/26/2012 08:38 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Yeah, I posted this a couple of hours ago... . The: Alert - Possible Derecho for NYC and Southern New England.

You have more 'cred', so this may get pinned to warn people...


Glad you are on it too DB
JanJan

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07/26/2012 08:40 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Here it is:

Thread: ALERT!!! Possible Derecho for NY and Southern New England!!
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 08:41 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC


Much thanks JanJan
JanJan

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07/26/2012 08:53 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC


Much thanks JanJan
 Quoting: DoorBert


TY for the pin!!! Wasn't looking for it DB - just amazed that I actually got something before you or LP!!

Have to be at work early, so you guys are my morning news... .

You're still the man!
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 09:00 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC


Much thanks JanJan
 Quoting: DoorBert


TY for the pin!!! Wasn't looking for it DB - just amazed that I actually got something before you or LP!!

Have to be at work early, so you guys are my morning news... .

You're still the man!
 Quoting: JanJan


cheers
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 09:00 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Extreme US Drought Rapidly Expanding, Worsening: NOAA

[link to www.weather.com]
Luisport

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07/26/2012 09:22 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
bump
Southern Lighthouse

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07/26/2012 09:34 AM
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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Pretty much cloud free over Ohio this morning.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Solar heating will strongly destabilize the air with a heavy surge of moisture coming up from the Gulf.

Looks like a potentially rough ride for folks mid OH and east.

Keeping an eye on Pittsburgh.
 Quoting: DoorBert


Cloud-free in Louisville, KY so far this morning, but I was just outside and the wind is kicking up... there's an eerie feeling in the air. Thanks for the heads up, DoorBert! Much love to ya!

hf
Love & Light from a Southern Lighthouse...
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 09:54 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Pretty much cloud free over Ohio this morning.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Solar heating will strongly destabilize the air with a heavy surge of moisture coming up from the Gulf.

Looks like a potentially rough ride for folks mid OH and east.

Keeping an eye on Pittsburgh.
 Quoting: DoorBert


Cloud-free in Louisville, KY so far this morning, but I was just outside and the wind is kicking up... there's an eerie feeling in the air. Thanks for the heads up, DoorBert! Much love to ya!

hf
 Quoting: Southern Lighthouse


Morning SL - much thanks

cheers
Sleeping Giant
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07/26/2012 11:45 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Possibly another derecho situation-



Center 7 Chief Meteorologist Jamie Simpson said not only are storms definite, but severe storms are likely from mid-afternoon through mid-evening.

He said the conditions will be similar to those on June 29, when a “super” derecho (pronounced: deh-REYcho), or land hurricane, swept in from Fort Wayne, Ind., and left a 700-mile-wide path of damage on a 12-hour march to Washington, D.C.

“The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded us to a moderate risk which means they expect more reports of damage than they would in a slight risk,” Simpson said.

He said widespread damage is a good possibility and a line of damaging winds with gusts to 80 mph is very possible. “It could end up being a setup similar to the one we had the day of Tattoo,” he said, referring to the derecho storm that forced the cancellation of the annual Freedom’s Call Tattoo celebration at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base on June 29.
Ohio Edison parent company First Energy Corp. announced Wednesday that they are mobilizing crews in case the storms impact electric service.

“All FirstEnergy utilities are on high alert and continue preparations to mobilize employees and resources, as needed, from throughout FirstEnergy’s 10 utilities to assist in storm restoration activities in the hardest-hit areas,” the company said in a release.

[link to www.whiotv.com]
The hour has already come for you to wake up from your slumber, because our salvation is nearer now than when we first believed. Romans 13:11

And ye shall be hated of all men for my name's sake: but he that endureth to the end shall be saved. Matthew 10:22

Wake up, oh sleeper, and rise from the dead, and Christ will shine on you
Sleeping Giant
Country boy

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07/26/2012 11:57 AM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Storm path prediction

[link to www.whiotv.com]
The hour has already come for you to wake up from your slumber, because our salvation is nearer now than when we first believed. Romans 13:11

And ye shall be hated of all men for my name's sake: but he that endureth to the end shall be saved. Matthew 10:22

Wake up, oh sleeper, and rise from the dead, and Christ will shine on you
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 02:15 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
SOUTHERN VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ELMIRA NEW YORK TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PITTSFIELD
MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE CLUSTER OF ONGOING STORMS OVER
WESTERN NY/PA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM ON/NORTH OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 02:28 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Derecho formation well underway from extreme southwest NY across northwest PA into eastern OH. Be safe ahead of this

[link to twitter.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 02:30 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Tornado warning for Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango Counties, PA.

Psbl tornado SE of Franklin, PA


[link to twitter.com]
Luisport

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07/26/2012 02:31 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
5 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Clarion, Forest, Jefferson and Venango County in PA until 3:15pm EDT. #pawx

7 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

TORNADO Watch until 9pm EDT for parts of CT MA NY PA VT [link to 1.usa.gov]
Luisport

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07/26/2012 02:33 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
i pin it, this is too important! I don't know why they unpin the other thread!bump
alexisj9

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07/26/2012 02:37 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
bump
halojumper

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07/26/2012 02:42 PM
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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
I truly believe all of this "bad" weather has something to do with H.A.A.R.P.spock
Luisport

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07/26/2012 02:55 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
1 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Live coverage from WPXI-TV in Pennsylvania as significant severe weather event unfolds [link to www.wpxi.com]
Luisport

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07/26/2012 02:55 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
3 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for McKean and Potter County in PA until 3:30pm EDT. #pawx
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 03:01 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
i pin it, this is too important! I don't know why they unpin the other thread!bump
 Quoting: Luisport


Much thanks for pin Luis!!!

hfhfhf
Anonymous Coward
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07/26/2012 03:18 PM
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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
Yo!

Da Retcho ain't no joke! Prepare like its a hurricane cuz the winds will reach sustained cat 1 strength....power outage in sweltering weather ain't fun....seeyas on da other side....
Luisport

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07/26/2012 03:23 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
7 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Radar loop as storms develop and move across the Northeast this afternoon and evening [link to media.lintvnews.com]
Luisport

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07/26/2012 03:27 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
3 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Potter and Tioga County in PA until 4:15pm EDT. #pawx
DoorBert (OP)

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07/26/2012 03:28 PM

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Re: Severe Weather Underway - Midwest to East Coast. Tornado Slams Elmira, NY! Derecho could hit Philly to NYC
[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...ERN WV...DC...MD...DE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261908Z - 262115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER THIS AREA...AS AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SE OF WW 524. BEING NEAR SRN PERIPHERY OF
FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SUFFICIENT TSTM ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT WW...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED ACCORDINGLY. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE PRIMARY
CONCERN...AND MRGL SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY LEE TROUGH
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE NEAR FDK-LYH-MTV LINE. FARTHER
E...BETTER-DEFINED CONFLUENCE BAND WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN RDU-RIC-DCA
THEN NEWD OVER HARFORD COUNTY MD. AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
HAS HEATED QUITE STRONGLY...WITH SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 90S AND DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S TO 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 3000-4500 J/KG.
THIS IS DERIVED FROM MODIFIED 12Z AND 18Z RAOBS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS...DISCOUNTING SITES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH/80S F SFC DEW
POINTS. 18Z IAD RAOB INDICATED WEAK CINH STILL REMAINING...AS WELL
AS STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 500-650 MB...EACH OF WHICH MAY BE MITIGATING
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION/GROWTH DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS INVOF EITHER BOUNDARY. VIS IMAGERY ACCORDINGLY
DEPICTS PATCHES OF DEEPENING CU/TCU BETWEEN I-95 CORRIDOR AND BLUE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIC. VWP AND OBSERVED/FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

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