ALERT!!! Possible Derecho for NY and Southern New England!!

[link to radar.weather.gov]

Where is it ?
[link to www.intellicast.com]

seems to have gone away ?

I just checked the latest SREF model run and looks like New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island could see the worst of this storm in terms of tornadoes.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Looks like they won't be very strong though if they happen.

Maybe EF1 to EF2 range.

I just checked the latest soundings around the area and Albany, NY is about the only place showing some twist in the atmosphere (helicity) but not too significant.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

So, as the front approaches, helicity should go up, but I don't anticipate enough to cause large tornadoes.

Stay safe and get prepped.

Thanks much DB!

they just posted this warning:

Alert 1: Flash Flood Watch - Expires: 7/26/2012 7:30PM

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.. UNTIL 7:30PM EDT Urgent - Immediate Broadcast RequestedFlood WatchNational Weather Service Taunton MA1126 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

… Heavy Rainfall Expected With Thunderstorms Late This AfternoonAnd Tonight…
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Including The Cities Of… Hartford… Windsor Locks… Union… Vernon… Putnam… Willimantic… Charlemont… Greenfield… Orange… Barre… Fitchburg… Framingham… Lowell… Lawrence… Gloucester… Chesterfield… Blandford… Amherst… Northampton… Springfield… Milford… Worcester… Foxboro… Norwood… Cambridge… Boston… Quincy… Taunton… Brockton… Plymouth… Fall River… New Bedford… Mattapoisett… Ayer… Foster… Smithfield… Providence… West Greenwich… Warwick… Bristol… Narragansett… Westerly… Newport1126 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2012

… Flash Flood Watch In Effect From 4 PM EDT This AfternoonThrough Friday Morning…
The National Weather Service In Taunton Has Issued A
* Flash Flood Watch For Portions Of Northern Connecticut… Massachusetts And Rhode Island.
* From 4 PM EDT This Afternoon Through Friday Morning
* Sudden Heavy Downpours Will Occur With Any Thunderstorms Late This Afternoon And Tonight. Rainfall Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible Within A Short Period Of Time.
* This May Result In Significant Urban And Poor Drainage Flooding. Small Streams May Also Rise Out Of Their Banks.
Precautionary/Preparedness Actions…
A Flash Flood Watch Means That Conditions May Develop That LeadTo Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding Is A Very Dangerous Situation.
You Should Monitor Later Forecasts And Be Prepared To Take ActionShould Flash Flood Warnings Be Issued.

I am on the Jersey shore , what and when should i expect?

No, pinhead, you are just so excited to think you know a big word.

That's cute, you think ignorant is a big word.

Not much, the current models are showing most of the Jersey shore around Brick to be missed by the storm.

If people dont believe that this is H.A.A.R.P. then I have a bridge to sell you.

I had never even heard of a fucking 'Dericho' until about 3 weeks ago, and now there has been 3 of them out of the blue.

Come on people, think.

I'll post a vid so that the tard that red-karmas me everytime I mention haarp might watch it and actually learn something instead of remaining ignorant



Last Edited by chris999 on 07/26/2012 12:35 PM

[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

July 26, 2012 – WEATHER – A derecho, the kind of storm that knocked out power to millions in Washington last month, may accompany bad weather forecast for New York City and the rest of the Northeast tomorrow, the U.S. Storm Prediction Center said.

What area, if any, is currently being impacted? I have a friend driving out of Chicago to Ft. Wayne and then on to the Cincinnati area. As of 15 minutes ago, there was nothing in the Chicago area.

now this is some major doomage

Been watching and trying to learn about weather for about 5 years but i have ta say i have never heard of this(Derecho) until Late last year.

Never seen the damn jet-stream so outta whack before.
3 in one small span of time?
Something causing this for sure but what?
Jet being whacked?whats causing that?
Look how far south a cool front has come in july,in Texas?
thats just not the norm,at all!

[link to weather.unisys.com]

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA...OH...NRN KY...NRN
PANHANDLE OF WV...WRN/NRN PA...WRN NY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261626Z - 261830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT...INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF
TSTMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z OVER WRN/NRN PARTS OF THIS DISCUSSION
AREA...INVOF ANY OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES DESCRIBED BELOW. DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH OTHER SVR MODES ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND CORRESPONDING TO DIFFUSE ERN FRINGE
OF THICKER CLOUD COVER ON VIS IMAGERY. THIS ZONE WAS LOCATED FROM
SRN IL AND SWRN INDIANA NEWD OVER W-CENTRAL/NRN OH...THEN ENEWD OVER
NWRN PA...WHERE IT INTERSECTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD OVER
S-CENTRAL PA. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN PA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE
WILL MOVE LITTLE AS CLOUDS ERODE WITH EWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUE TO
ADVECT OVER AREA FROM W. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MCV MOVING ENEWD
ABOUT 35 KT OVER W-CENTRAL IL...ON TRACK TO REACH NRN INDIANA AROUND
22Z...AND PRECEDED BY MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
MIDLEVEL ASCENT. GRAVITY WAVE WAS EVIDENT MOVING SEWD OVER SWRN
PA...OH/WV BORDER AND CENTRAL KY...BEHIND WHICH STRONGEST SFC
HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM NERN OH TO WRN KY.

IN LOW LEVELS...CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z PBZ/ILN RAOBS IS BEING REMOVED
QUICKLY BY STG DIABATIC HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...BELOW
PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR THAT CONTRIBUTES STEEP LOW-MIDDLE
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F...NET RESULT
WILL BE PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE STRENGTHENING TO 3500-5000 J/KG RANGE
OVER BROAD SWATH OF WARM SECTOR...BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE. SUCH STG-EXTREME BUOYANCY ATOP
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY-WSWLY
DEEP-LAYER WINDS...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH ORGANIZED/AGGREGATE COLD
POOLS ENHANCING SVR WIND RISK. THIS MAY OCCUR WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER LE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NEAR WARM FRONT AND
SRN-SHORE LAKE BREEZE...AS WELL AS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT INVOF
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE AND AHEAD OF MCV OVER PORTIONS INDIANA/OH.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES WITH NEWD EXTENT TOWARD AND OVER WARM
FRONT...VALUES REACHING 40-50 KT IN NWRN PA WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH ALSO
IS MAXIMIZED. THIS SUGGESTS RELATIVE MAX IN SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK
ALSO MAY EXIST INVOF WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD/NEWD WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012


[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

A perfect time for twitter to go down....

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CONNECTICUT
NORTHERN DELAWARE
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA
A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHERN MARYLAND
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO
MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND ACROSS WISCONSIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS CLUSTERS AND BANDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND FARTHER SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FOUND FROM INDIANA AND OHIO ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW YORK...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. A MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS THESE
REGIONS...WHERE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST. ADDITIONALLY...ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

SOME OF THE LARGER CITIES WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA THAT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS INCLUDE CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS IN
OHIO...PHILADELPHIA AND PITTSBURGH IN PENNSYLVANIA...AS WELL AS NEW
YORK CITY.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..COHEN.. 07/26/2012

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

The storm may have gotten weaker. I don't feel the strength like I did before. Hopefully this is the case :(

TOR warned storm crossing the OH/PA border showing strong rotation...will track east across N. Mercer County.

[link to twitter.com]

uhm .... not likely.

Severe storms starting to fire up for the day-- two tornado warnings in NW PA right now.

[link to twitter.com]

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 07/26/2012 01:47 PM

LOL I guess we will see if humans are better at predicting this than all that weather technology. I'm going with the NJ guy

Tornado-warned storm is heading toward Franklin, Pa. The storms are moving very quickly.

16 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Mercer and Venango County in PA until 2:15pm EDT. #pawx

22 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Extreme swath of wind damage expected from Ind. to Mass. today: [link to 1.usa.gov] Keep aware of warnings today!

30 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Crawford County in PA until 1:45pm EDT. #pawx

30 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado Warning for Ashtabula and Trumbull County in OH until 1:45pm EDT. #ohwx

Nasty storms in OH PA & NY are flying eastward at 50 mph. Be alert for rapidly changing wx in the central Appalachians.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN NY...WRN NEW
ENGLAND...NERN PA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261750Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER NRN PORTIONS WW 524...AND
MOVING EWD ABOUT 40 KT...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SVR THREAT FARTHER E
ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EVEN
N OF WARM FRONT AS WELL. MAIN THREAT IS SVR GUSTS...THOUGH
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT OVER
NWRN...CENTRAL AND SERN PA...BECOMING SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE IN THERMAL
FIELDS GIVEN STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES. IN
FACT...AIR MASS N OF WARM FRONT HAS BECOME MINIMALLY CAPPED...WITH
SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S AND TEMPS LOW 80S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG
RANGE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF TSTM BAND. MLCINH WILL ERODE FROM W-E
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR DUE TO COMBINATION OF DIABATIC HEATING AND
MOIST ADVECTION...RENDERING AREAS FROM HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND FAVORABLY UNSTABLE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL...HOWEVER AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT FROM THERE. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LARGE INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...DESPITE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
VEERING WITH HEIGHT. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS
WELL...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT OVER MOST OF AREA.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 07/26/2012

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

It blew itself out.

Storms so bad in PA that the NWS is issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings 100 miles out & 75 minutes ahead