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Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico

 
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
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07/30/2012 04:55 AM

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Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
I have been talking about this the last few weeks on another thread.

We are currently in a weather pattern that was the same in the 1950s.

In the 50's, the result was severe drought in Midwest and Plains AND Major Hurricanes hitting the US East Coast.

Well, we have had our drought and now its time for the Hurricanes to start rolling.

99L is a tropical wave in the Atlantic and forecast to strengthen and move into the Caribbean.

Too early to stay where it will end up or how strong it will be.

Stay tuned, will post updates.



Currently 9.7N 34.3W

Convection light at the moment

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

Early forecast tracks

[link to my.sfwmd.gov]

Should start to spin up around 50W

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

Last Edited by DoorBert on 07/31/2012 04:33 PM
DoorBert (OP)

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07/30/2012 04:59 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Also, currently analyzed as Pouch P10L

[link to www.met.nps.edu]

[link to www.met.nps.edu]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/30/2012 06:09 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Current GFS run has it making landfall on south Hispaniola as a strong cane.

[link to policlimate.com]
CrazyBud

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07/30/2012 06:56 AM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Thanks for heads up...looks to be just short of 2 weeks out
There's plenty of room for all God's creatures, right next to the mashed potatoes...noli timere messorem
DoorBert (OP)

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07/30/2012 06:59 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Thanks for heads up...looks to be just short of 2 weeks out
 Quoting: CrazyBud


Should be a named storm around Thursday
Anonymous Coward
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07/30/2012 07:23 AM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Thank you, and keep us updated.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/30/2012 07:23 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Thank you, and keep us updated.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19866620


cheers
DoorBert (OP)

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07/30/2012 08:03 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Visible Satellite

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/30/2012 08:20 AM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2802495
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07/30/2012 08:22 AM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
I have been talking about this the last few weeks on another thread.

We are currently in a weather pattern that was the same in the 1950s.

In the 50's, the result was severe drought in Midwest and Plains AND Major Hurricanes hitting the US East Coast.

Well, we have had our drought and now its time for the Hurricanes to start rolling.

99L is a tropical wave in the Atlantic and forecast to strengthen and move into the Caribbean.

Too early to stay where it will end up or how strong it will be.

Stay tuned, will post updates.



Currently 9.7N 34.3W

Convection light at the moment

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

Early forecast tracks

[link to my.sfwmd.gov]

Should start to spin up around 50W

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
 Quoting: DoorBert


20% possibility of development..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 857877
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07/30/2012 08:28 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
I have been talking about this the last few weeks on another thread.

We are currently in a weather pattern that was the same in the 1950s.

In the 50's, the result was severe drought in Midwest and Plains AND Major Hurricanes hitting the US East Coast.

Well, we have had our drought and now its time for the Hurricanes to start rolling.

99L is a tropical wave in the Atlantic and forecast to strengthen and move into the Caribbean.

Too early to stay where it will end up or how strong it will be.

Stay tuned, will post updates.



Currently 9.7N 34.3W

Convection light at the moment

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

Early forecast tracks

[link to my.sfwmd.gov]

Should start to spin up around 50W

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
 Quoting: DoorBert


20% possibility of development..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2802495


[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/30/2012 01:09 PM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Today this is the talk of the weather sites as models show possible development. The possibilities are endless as usual. Models are like a crystal ball now as anything over 3 days is pure speculation of to many variables.

As I see the one feature that pops out now is the blob of the Carolina's. I think this could be one of the controling factors to this system. It could enhance the storm and move it, only time will tell. The Carib. is a hostile enviroment now but that can change. As of today I say 50 percent chance of development into a TS.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/30/2012 01:40 PM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa.

Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation.

The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing.

Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L.

Wind shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.

Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model.

The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

[link to www.wunderground.com]
Badcarma69

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07/30/2012 01:54 PM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Pray for surf for south Florida...yeah

5a
Wake up my friend, be the one person who makes the difference!!!! 1 [link to youtu.be]
yankeeslover

User ID: 20914904
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07/30/2012 03:07 PM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
oh please dont tell me this... im flying to orlando from upstate NY on 8/9.... i hope this does not impact flights.
OOHJonluke
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07/30/2012 08:05 PM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
It does not appear to be an immediate threat to land, but could be so for the Lesser Antilles/Caribbean islands toward weekend/late week. Shear is favorable now but too much trade winds at this time near the islands...a lot can change. Everyone needs to keep an occasional eye on it but I'm not too concerned for the U.S. (Lower 48) just yet. Puerto Rico is already getting flooding rains from another tropical wave as we speak, so this may deliver some more rounds of rain and wind depending on how north or south it goes.
Anonymous Coward
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07/30/2012 08:08 PM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
oh please dont tell me this... im flying to orlando from upstate NY on 8/9.... i hope this does not impact flights.
 Quoting: yankeeslover


It's too early to tell, maybe yes maybe no, but it's probably gonna head well to the south of Orlando according to model consensus, but it might turn N//NE later on. Just keep an eye on it.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 07:21 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Euro is now showing development with track thru mid Carib

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 07:26 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
CMC still bringing thru Bahamas

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]


Latest model tracks

[link to www.tropicalatlantic.com]

[link to my.sfwmd.gov]
ISLANDIA

User ID: 8828100
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07/31/2012 07:38 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Our Lobster season has started out a little slow a nice hurricane to skirt the coast off Florida would be great for the surfing and the diving.


Peace to all
ISLANDIA

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07/31/2012 07:42 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
The best site for all the nformation is Jays Hurricance page


[link to www.tropicwx.com]

Take a look at the water heat index - The Gulf is Boiling Hot
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 08:59 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Invest 99L Slowly Becoming More Organized & May Develop Into Tropical Storm Ernesto & Affect Barbados, The Southern Leeward Islands & The Windward Islands On Saturday

[link to www.crownweather.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 09:30 AM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Dr. Masters says, "African tropical wave 99L slowly organizing"

[link to www.wunderground.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 02:03 PM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 02:34 PM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Models trending for a mid Carib run.

Could run thru the Yucatan Channel into the GOM.

Stay tuned for updates.

[link to i48.tinypic.com]
Anonymous Coward
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07/31/2012 02:57 PM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
that time of year. shits about to get crazy.
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 04:23 PM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Climatology for August canes

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 04:26 PM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
Starting to really shape up as a mid Carib run.

Not looking good for the GOM.

Need to see if they task recon on this.

[link to flhurricane.com]
momma coop

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07/31/2012 04:28 PM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
August 17th is the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Lets hope we don't have to deal with anything like that this time around.
"I believe there's a hero in all of us, that keeps us honest, gives us strength, makes us noble, and finally allows us to die with pride, even though sometimes we have to be steady, and give up the thing we want the most. Even our dreams."

"Because you are you"
DoorBert (OP)

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07/31/2012 04:29 PM

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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT TUE JULY 31 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 03/1800Z NEAR 12.5N 57.5W


[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
Elsabiades...
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07/31/2012 04:30 PM
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Re: Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico
With the extreme heat comes fuel to flame the fires of the Atlantic and Gulf......

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