Invest 99L: Forecast to become a Hurricane in the Caribbean - Could Impact Gulf of Mexico

Also, currently analyzed as Pouch P10L

[link to www.met.nps.edu]

[link to www.met.nps.edu]

Current GFS run has it making landfall on south Hispaniola as a strong cane.

[link to policlimate.com]

Thanks for heads up...looks to be just short of 2 weeks out

Should be a named storm around Thursday

Thank you, and keep us updated.

Visible Satellite

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

20% possibility of development..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Today this is the talk of the weather sites as models show possible development. The possibilities are endless as usual. Models are like a crystal ball now as anything over 3 days is pure speculation of to many variables.

As I see the one feature that pops out now is the blob of the Carolina's. I think this could be one of the controling factors to this system. It could enhance the storm and move it, only time will tell. The Carib. is a hostile enviroment now but that can change. As of today I say 50 percent chance of development into a TS.

The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa.

Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation.

The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing.

Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L.

Wind shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.

Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model.

The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Pray for surf for south Florida...yeah

oh please dont tell me this... im flying to orlando from upstate NY on 8/9.... i hope this does not impact flights.

It does not appear to be an immediate threat to land, but could be so for the Lesser Antilles/Caribbean islands toward weekend/late week. Shear is favorable now but too much trade winds at this time near the islands...a lot can change. Everyone needs to keep an occasional eye on it but I'm not too concerned for the U.S. (Lower 48) just yet. Puerto Rico is already getting flooding rains from another tropical wave as we speak, so this may deliver some more rounds of rain and wind depending on how north or south it goes.

It's too early to tell, maybe yes maybe no, but it's probably gonna head well to the south of Orlando according to model consensus, but it might turn N//NE later on. Just keep an eye on it.

Euro is now showing development with track thru mid Carib

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

CMC still bringing thru Bahamas

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]


Latest model tracks

[link to www.tropicalatlantic.com]

[link to my.sfwmd.gov]

Our Lobster season has started out a little slow a nice hurricane to skirt the coast off Florida would be great for the surfing and the diving.


Peace to all

The best site for all the nformation is Jays Hurricance page


[link to www.tropicwx.com]

Take a look at the water heat index - The Gulf is Boiling Hot

Invest 99L Slowly Becoming More Organized & May Develop Into Tropical Storm Ernesto & Affect Barbados, The Southern Leeward Islands & The Windward Islands On Saturday

[link to www.crownweather.com]

Dr. Masters says, "African tropical wave 99L slowly organizing"

[link to www.wunderground.com]

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Models trending for a mid Carib run.

Could run thru the Yucatan Channel into the GOM.

Stay tuned for updates.

[link to i48.tinypic.com]

that time of year. shits about to get crazy.

Climatology for August canes

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Starting to really shape up as a mid Carib run.

Not looking good for the GOM.

Need to see if they task recon on this.

[link to flhurricane.com]

August 17th is the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Lets hope we don't have to deal with anything like that this time around.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT TUE JULY 31 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 03/1800Z NEAR 12.5N 57.5W

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

With the extreme heat comes fuel to flame the fires of the Atlantic and Gulf......