Tropical Depression 5 heads to Caribbean. Possible Track into Gulf of Mexico!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

New tropical depression in Atlantic forecast to become Hurricane Ernesto by Monday near Jamaica. Map:

[link to twitter.com]

Sorry Doorbert but getting Page Not Found on your links.

Don't know what is up with NHC.

Here is their general link.

You can find specifics on TD5 there.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

I read about this days ago, good to see it going on!

WTF will happen if a hurricane makes it into the stalled gulf?!?!?!?!


I'd imagine it will grow 3x as the gulf surface temps are thru the facking roof right now! Look the FACK out!

Oh yeah,

[link to www.fnmoc.navy.mil (secure)]

^^^ daily surface temps, JUST LOOK AT THE GULF! You are ALL SCREWED when the season kicks in!

where is it going to hit?

THE FACKING FAN MAN!

no worries OP, just wait... for 6 more days & this be all over the fracking place!

Very likely this will become a major hurricane when it is close to Jamaica.

[link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu]

Heat content of the ocean there is the highest of the whole Atlantic Basin, capable of developing a Cat 5 cane.

Folks in Jamaica need to watch this very closely.

Latest official forecast tracks

[link to oi45.tinypic.com]

[link to www.nrlmry.navy.mil]

hey, remember hurricanes??

I hope it doesn't hurt the harvest in Jamaica. But it would be hilarious if Nawlins got wiped out again.

snoop lion better go save his rhastafarian priest bro's before its too late...

from Kevin Martin:

There are variables that will keep this from strengthening much, including wind shear that looks to be unfavorable for rapid development of the system. The system could very well develop very slowly up until Monday of next week and then rapidly become a Hurricane around Tuesday.

[link to www.theweatherspace.com]

1 minJohnny Kelly‏@stormchaser4850

Main sign of El Nino, wind shear ripping into Atlantic tropical depression 5 this morning [link to yfrog.com]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH