Romney MUST WIN FLORIDA or it's over. He must pick Rubio or it's over.

I've looked carefully at the math and the polls:

If Romney loses Florida, NOTHING else matters. NOTHING!

He must pick Rubio -- which polls show will be the most likely VP to help carry a state -- which is Florida.

The election will play out likely as follows:

Romney will get all of the South, including VA and NC. He will get Colo and Arizona. He will win IN and MO.

Obama will get IA, WI and Minn. They aren't in play. Obama probably wins NV and NM. He also wins NH. He easily wins PA.

That wraps it up. There are only two serious "swing" states, Ohio and Florida.

For this election to even be in contention, he MUST win Florida to make a push for Ohio.

Florida has to be a given. It has to be in the bag. If Florida is not in the conversation, Romney cannot win.

Once he has Florida, he then MUST win Ohio, of course.

He CANNOT lose Florida and win Ohio.

As for the VP picks...

Pawlenty would be horrible, causing a nationwide collective sigh, yawn and eye-roll, letting all the air out of an already lifeless campaign. He won't help carry Minnesota, and even if he did, its 10 electoral votes won't be enough.

Portman is not well known in Ohio. Romney can win Ohio without Portman.

Rubio would wrap up and secure Florida so all forces can descend upon Ohio. Florida is still in play with Obama leading and it must be the priority. Florida will be harder to win than Ohio.

Rice and Betrayus won't help carry any specific states.

However, I do not believe Romney will pick Rubio. He's doing very little to help himself win this. It's frustrating watching his campaign make so many blunders, respond so poorly to attacks and so poorly create a positive narrative for Romney as a candidate.

He also has a tendency to over-play his hand on perceived Obama missteps, such as the welfare reform controversy (with Republican governors in NV and UT requesting this change from the Obama Administration -- a change which the administration still requires work-requirement stipulations and quotas -- Romney now looks incredibly stupid. He's saying Obama has rolled-back Clinton's welfare reform, which Clinton has called a lie, which it is).

His campaign chooses these red herrings poorly and can't seem to see two, three steps ahead or how their attacks will play out. They're inept and stupid.

There's also plenty he could attack Obama on with respect to civil liberties, the war, broken promises, Wall Street hypocrisy, Jeff Immelt -- but he doesn't go there.

While Romney cannot ever release his tax returns due to his IRS amnesty deal (an assumed near certainty) -- which essentially impugns him in willful commission of tax evasion -- he CAN repeatedly request to see Obama's college records (which would reveal him to be a foreign student and will also never be released).

His campaign strategists are either idiots or trying to lose.

If he stays the course and picks a tepid VP, get ready for four more years of Obama. Get used to it.

Electoral college calculator -- do the math and you'll see how hard it is for Romney to win:

[link to www.cnn.com]

Last Edited by Super Bowl Dave on 08/09/2012 12:26 AM