Christchurch East will have a strong M5+ aftershock within 48 hours

O.K. in short my theory is, based on previous aftershock patterns in Christchurch is:

After a fairly quite period Christchurch gets a few WEAK + DEEP quakes, 15-25 km depth. I say deep because the most fault-lines in Christchurch run between the depths of 5-8 km.

Look at today's activity:

Date Time Depth Magnitude
11/08/2012 1:03pm 24.7 2.10
11/08/2012 1:00pm 21.9 2.22
11/08/2012 12:16pm 20.1 1.98
11/08/2012 2:21am 11.2 2.60
11/08/2012 2:18am 16.4 2.49
11/08/2012 12:55am 16.3 2.03

[link to www.canterburyquakelive.co.nz]


Now look at the energy released chart, it has hit ZERO just a few days ago.

[link to www.canterburyquakelive.co.nz]

By the way, all these were 10-20 km East of Christchurch. believe the BIG aftershock or next event will occur offshore / East - North-East of Christchurch.