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Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2012 09:11 PM
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Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," Bickers said in a press statement.

To predict the race's outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.

The professors' model shows a very different picture than what current data suggests. Currently, The Huffington Post's Election Dashboard shows Obama with 257 electoral votes to Romney's 191 with only six "tossup" states including: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. [link to www.huffingtonpost.com]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/22/2012 09:12 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Good thing? Bad thing? I don't know. I'm a Pat Paulson man myself!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/22/2012 09:13 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
bump
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/22/2012 09:22 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
bump
071676

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08/22/2012 09:32 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Good thing? Bad thing? I don't know. I'm a Pat Paulson man myself!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20952020


Damn! You are old! I know I am because I remember Pat Paulson. It been, what, over forty years now?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/22/2012 09:38 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Good thing? Bad thing? I don't know. I'm a Pat Paulson man myself!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20952020


Damn! You are old! I know I am because I remember Pat Paulson. It been, what, over forty years now?
 Quoting: 071676


Heh heh, It sure has and if ol Pat were still alive and running I'd be supporting him today. Yay Paulson!
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2012 09:52 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
I highly doubt that Romney will win Minnesota. It is possible he will win Wisconsin due to their unique situation there. Paul Ryan is of course popular and the state has had a huge problem with the Democratic party and unions. It has been hit hard by the economy and the Republicans are seen as taking the bad situation there more seriously.

All the others are likely to swing to Romney. It is certainly possible. Pennsylvania would be the one to watch. Even though they are Catholic and have been hit hard by the bad economy they usually vote Democratic. They have voted Republican in the past.

I could see the similarities between this election and 1980 and knew as early as the summer of 2011 the economy could take Obama down. If the Republicans put up a decent candidate they would win. That was key. When the economy got worse in 2011 instead of better it was over for Obama even though he is personally well liked.
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2012 10:40 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Another reason why that demon in the White House will do anything to win
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2012 10:50 PM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Yes, well, it depends who's counting the ballots, doesn't it?



Although I do hope they are right....
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/23/2012 10:53 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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08/23/2012 11:00 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Take a moment and look around you.......

Obama care....
unemployment....
social safety-net abuse...
racial tension....
insane fiscal policy....
EPA is closing down our energy sources....

Transparent government????? Hell NO!

Folks see some or all of this crap going on everyday.

Romney/Ryan will win in an epic landslide.
Anonymous Coward
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08/28/2012 06:58 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Exactly the electoral college picks the president not the people.
Anonymous Coward
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08/28/2012 07:03 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
any person in america who stands on there own two feet and sousn't rely with state employment, or handouts will probably vote romney. thats if he persuades there'll be little foreign wars that voters dislike due trends.

the problem is obama got black hispanic, others who the state employs. i think you military is saf considering thats little issue, and police, both state funded. the rest may be difficult to out share the democrats. the maths would be a player here.
Phillip Oliver
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09/08/2012 03:21 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
8 elections in a row with little error in the numbers, especially since the George W Bush 2nd term election was so close and they still got it right very impressive. After 8 in a row if I was betting the roulette table on those odds, I would double down on prediction number 9, which is the 2012 election. Let's watch the landslide on November 6th, and enjoy.
khnum
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09/08/2012 03:37 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Another reason why that demon in the White House will do anything to win
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13582415


Bible codes suggest MR Romney is THE DEMON FULLSTOP,perhaps better the devil you know than the Beast of Revelation(of course the code could be wrong)

I actually predict a very close race the half of the country on welfare of some description should know they are stuffed if Romney/Ryan win.
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2012 05:03 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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09/08/2012 05:54 AM
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Re: Respected Electoral college prediction model correct since 1980 claims romney will win big!
Shouldn't they be using economic models from all 57 states?

cruise

I suspect that Harrison J. Bounel, by hook or by crook, will serve a second term.

damned

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