ISAAC now Following Katrina's Path. Steering Currents being Modified to Stall over BP Oil Spill Area.

00Z HWRF still brings it to a Cat 5 before landfall

[link to www.weatherbellmodels.com]

It's still a tropical storm so far?

Recon still showing a strong trop storm, but they are seeing an eye forming and it is beginning to stack vertically.


NOAA42 first Doppler radar analysis in Isaac shows a circulation aligned over the center from surface to 6 km with slight tilt to north.

NOAA42 radar suggests an eye is forming in Isaac. It is elliptical with major axis WNW-ESE and diameter 30 nm. In major bands to west.

[link to twitter.com]


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 11:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 10:40:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°38'N 84°32'W (25.6333N 84.5333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 180 miles (290 km) to the WSW (247°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,345m (4,413ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 133° at 55kts (From the SE at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 99 nautical miles (114 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 9:58:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL TEMP 21.0C 246/10 NM FROM FL CNTR

I don't really get it.
I have been following this storm for over a week now.
A few days ago when most models were expecting landfall around NW Florida they said it would landfall as a Cat. 2.
The last few days the point of landfall shifted further to the west, giving Isaac more time over the Golf of Mexico to gain power. But now most models expect it to landfall as a Cat. 1.

Recon Update:

NOAA42 noticed a low level swirl of clouds as we passed through the center of Isaac on this pass. Clouds and radar suggest eye forming.

[link to twitter.com]


Rapid Scan Sat Views:

[link to www.ssec.wisc.edu]

[link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu]

A pic of Isaac as it creeps.

[link to p.twimg.com]

That's not Isaac.

Oil prices rose Monday as Tropical Storm Isaac barreled across the Gulf of Mexico and toward the U.S. mainland, picking up strength and threatening oil and refining operations. An explosion at a refinery in Venezuela also pushed prices higher.

Benchmark crude for October delivery rose $1.03 in late afternoon Bangkok time to $97.18 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 12 cents to finish at $96.15 per barrel on the Nymex on Friday.

[link to www.cbsnews.com]

NOAA42 is tracking west 100 nm north of Isaac center just outside the major rainband in and out of sun. Huge cumulonimbus to our left.

all very strange stuff thanks for sharing doorbsy

Can see eyewall building here

[link to tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012

...ISAAC GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

what does the oil spill have to do with anything?

OMG

Recon now reporting surface winds of 54 knots and pressure continuing to drop at 989 mb

That is where they have been incubating Synthia virus for the last two years.

Synthia (mutated bacteria sprayed in the GOM by BP/Synthetic Genomic, to "eat" the crude oil, but has mutated and eats much more) + Isaac =

06Z HWRF makes landfall at 944 mb, a Cat 4

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]

A few of the GFS Ensemble members are showing a Houston landfall

[link to www.wunderground.com]

I know BP started evacuating the Platforms in the gulf earlier

Corexit/oil mixtures are floating just below the surface. This is a bad thing and I'll explain.

1- The drifting oil layers are slowing the cooling water from deep reaching the surface, preventing warm waters from circulating with the cool waters. Because this oil is resting right on the thermal line.

This creates a much HOTTER surface.

2- If a strong storm brings enough turbulance to stir up the corexit/oil layers, it will emulsify in the choppy waves & winds. It is thin enough to drift with the rains due to the corexit.

If this garbage makes landfall it will kill 99% of plant life. Plants die rapidly if they are coated with oil, even just a slim film.

This can include a HUGE area. The potential for a catastrophic kill off is great.

Where does RSOE get their info from? They have it as a cat 3 when it hits land.

[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

NOAA NHC, see [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Last night on the weather, they explained why Isaac was not intensifying. There is a large area of dry air over Yucatan that is being drawn into it. This is why you see more storms to the north of the eye. Once it moves a little further north it will escape that influence and grow rapidly. If Doorbert is correct then they may park it offshore just long enough to get it to a 5, but without any intensification and moving at a steady speed, I don't see it getting bigger than a strong 1 or 2.

Doorbert, do you have any thoughts about how Issac could affect the sink holes and salt domes in Assumption Parish?

Thanks. Never clicked that link. lol

I haven't really thought too much on it.

not quite sure if i should believe tho.
RSOE already says it's a Cat. 1 while NOAA is saying it's still a TS. On the other side they say their data is from NOAA, kinda strange.

Isaac in now entraining unstable air.

Earlier this morning CAPE was 2000 in his core.

It is now up to 3000.

More fuel to strengthen him.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]