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WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.

 
Ashton's landing strip
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
...


Again, devil is in the details/nuances. Yes, in the past as Swinburn pointed out, there was unwarranted hope that Iranians would throw off the Ruhollah Khomeini yoke all on their own. Maybe even in June 2009.

But the Arab Spring COMPLETELY changed the calculus. Yes, as I mentioned IRGC and the Basij militia are formiddable. But once Iranian economy completely tanks, there will be no stopping the 75 million strong Persian Locomotive of Discontent.

Remember, the sanctions in their present form are only 2-3 years old and only very recently the ones targeting energy sector & Iranian banking have been enacted. So far Iran has been able to bypass them, but once US,Europe and Israel REALLY roll their sleeves back and start utilizing their means, including electronic/cyber.... Heck, Iraninan currency Rial is already tanking. Better late than never, obviously US will need some more time.

Also remember the ORIGINAL point I was making to Gerry and Swinburn:

a) attacking Iran first head-on is too risky and politically suicidal

b) provoking Iran to lash out once their precious uranium-enriching facilities go up in flames from "inside".... could just work.

c) waiting for Ali Khamenei to die and be replaced by the Persian Nelson Mandela is pipe dreaming. Regime change can only come in coordination with military option, which presumably includes harassing Iran with Stuxnet, asssasinations explosions and the like -- only on a bigger scale than is currently done. And of course working with Iran's protectors Russia and China behind the scenes in order to make it worth their while to stay out of it.


Nothing ideal or guaranteed here, goes without saying.

But again, WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST? DO nothing? Nuke Iran off the map pre-emptively with megaton monsters?
Come on, now.


___
now playing: 'At the Beach' - David Wingo (
"Take Shelter" ending)

But what are you suggesting B
 Quoting: Baroness Ashton's landing 9143314


Gee don't remember saying that.... but Wishin' and hopin' ain't much of a plan either. You may have forgotten China and Russia and India supplying most of Iran's needs. The only way is to stave them out. I don't see that happening.
 Quoting: DblTapViper


Gee, I don't saying that, either.

If anything, I've been one of the more Hawkish people in this thread since I started posting on GLP a month ago--

and also made my displeasure with not only Western negligence of the Iranian problem the last 20 years... but also eviscerated most of the Israeli leaders in that same time span.

So you're preaching the choir, in that sense.

(Nevermind that someone who hasn't even been ALIVE during those same 20 years, my credibility is rather limited. Easy for me to criticise from sheltered comfort, in other words).

Anyway. Lest we all get confused even more, let's get back to where I differ with some of the hawkish pundits and some posters in this thread:

a) Sending IAF jets full-on to Iran with a limited amount of re-fuel tankers that Israel has, to boot...is RIDICULOUSLY risky, unacceptably so IMO, proposition. Electronic Warfare suites on the F-16 can only do so much.

b) Yes, those 3-4 Dolphins with their alleged Turbo Popeye cruise missiles are nice... but what happens when they're sunk in the Persian gulf clusterf*ck? Dolphins are stealthy but contrary to the popular belief they are NOT invisible or invincible. Do you think Iran will not have access to both Russian AND Chinese intelligence, satellites and maybe even with help of North Korean (they have some 70 of them alone!) subs patrolling that enclosed Gulf area.

c) "Political fallout & international condemnation" may be overused cliches, but in this case, if Israel is seen as the clear-cut AGGRESSOR, the backlash may just reach critical mass.


War is unavoidable, either way, IMO. I'd much rather the Mullahs blink first and end up being blamed for starting it.

And if the situation is so dire that Israel cannot afford to wait afford to wait for Iran to blink first...then we're all f*cked anyway -- forget the air-force, or precision-bombing; Israel might as well use Jericho-2 and Jericho-3 if you know what I mean.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9143314


What I find diagreeable about talking with you is that a person can agree with you substatnially but if they say one thing that even vaguely disagrees with your analysis you pounce and go on and on and on, straying from any point you may have had into the realm of assumptions about other views you conclude the disagree-er holds.

So I'm tempted to say that I agree with most of what you say here and leave it at that. But ... what bothers me about your conclusion is

a)that it assumes that the Iranians will take the bait. you and many others assume the that the Iranians aren't rational players and they obviously do hold to a subrational ideology, but where has their foreign policy since the Iran-Iraq war (and were they really less rational that the parties in WWII then?) showed them to be anything other than rather shrewd calculators of how to get their own way? why would it be different this time?

b) that it also assumes that the world at large won't see the attack (because whatever the form it takes, it'll be just that) as an Israeli action even if Israel doesn't acknowledge it? you seem to think the very people (the obama administration and the eu countries)who've been delaying action against iran for as long as possible will suddenly be compelled to act in israel's interest. they won't. and of course iran has ways of retaliating through that won't open it up to more international action.

now i've written all that, your plan actually seems better to me than it did before. i'd expect the end result to be a war with hezbollah (risky, given the chemical weapon situation in syria, but giving israel the chance to do what they didn't in 2006) and (probably) attacks on various israeli and jewish targets around the world, concentrating on countries that won't or can't do much to retaliate. since i live in one of those countries and my entire family spends a fair amount of time in jewish institutions of one kind or another, that worries me, but not so much that i'd want israel not to take out iranian nuclear sites.

the other result (one hopes) would be a substantial delay in iranian nuclear development, but as aton suggests, it's possible (likely, even) that iran is working with outside parties and an attack on iranian facilities would just see them move the entire program offshore. i expect the iranian will never acknowledge possessing a nuclear weapon.

a third result would be the further diplomatic isolation of israe, albeit to a lesser degree than if there wre a flat-out military strike. if israel starts something, nobody is going to believe they didn't.
 Quoting: Swinburnian





"What I find diagreeable about talking with you is that a person can agree with you substatnially but if they say one thing that even vaguely disagrees with your analysis you pounce "

What you see as minor disagreement, I see as major. For instance, I think the idea of Israel pre-emptively sending its entire air-force 1500 km away, over hostile territory no less -- into the teeth of Iran's redundant SAMs, ... is crazy. The world will not stand for it even if it works. Which it may not. Remember, Israel has only ONE shot to get it just right-- to come close to perfection as humanly possible. If they blow it, Israel could be destroyed. Certainly Netanyahu, Lieberman and Right-wing parties would be crushed in next elections. I can just see it now: Avoda-Meretz Coalition, with Shelley Yachimovich and Zahava Gallion holding hands and giving Israel to Fakestinians as lumpen retards cherer and have gay sex all over Rothschild Boulevard as they burn Star of David flag. Le horror. :)

"and go on and on and on"

My command of English is n yet ideal; my unbridled wild temperament + improvisational nature of my aspired profession = my posts are not optimally structured, tend to free-flow.

Sorry.

"a)that it assumes that the Iranians will take the bait."

If Iranians DON'T take the bait... all the better. US and Israel can blow up or "malfunction" even more critical sites, tightenen the noose around Iran's economy even more, much more....and keep provoking internal unrest every which way using that billios-dollar CIA Black Budget.

At some point Iran will blink and do something stupid in te Gulf or Lebanon. Anyone would. It's a shame that it's come down Armagedon brinkksmanship, but you can thankk the West's neglect of the nuclear issue in the last 20+ years. If there is Hell, few spots are reserved for Bill Clinton alone. I wonder if feels any remorse as he shills for Obama these days....

"you and many others assume the that the Iranians aren't rational players "

That's because they are certifiably insane. Irrational fanatics CAN appear behave "rationally" for a time, especially once they are smart enough to employ Western PR consultants -- all while the Western leftists prefer to argue themselves into pretzels in order to justify INACTION and APPEASEMENT.....all while retrospectively assigning all manner of "rational" characterizations to the Twelver Psychos.

"b) that it also assumes that the world at large won't see the attack (because whatever the form it takes, it'll be just that) as an Israeli action even if Israel doesn't acknowledge it?"

The world can assume all it wants. International law is something else. Even it were possible to connect the dots to Israel, it would take independent investigators months, if not YEARS to prove anything -- and that's assuming Iran's wounded pride would allow them to seek Western assistence.

Syrian reactor, nothing. Half-dozen mysterious explosions in late 2011 and early 2012, including the missile expert and 2/3 Shahab-3 stockpiles? Nada. Scientists? Nil.


"you seem to think the very people (the obama administration and the eu countries)who've been delaying action against iran for as long as possible will suddenly be compelled to act in israel's interest."

First of all, deep down they don't want nuclear Iran, that already has ICBM capbabilties, lest we forget.

More importantly, once Iran overreacts & sinks a few tankers/warships or closes Strait of Hormuz -- Obama's, Cameron's, Merkel's et all collective hand will be forced, like it or not.

"i'd expect the end result to be a war with hezbollah (risky, given the chemical weapon situation in syria, but giving israel the chance to do what they didn't in 2006)"

Well, yeah. I hope the, IMO, incompetent, cowardly, corrupt Israli leadership hasn't been sitting sucking their thumbs since 2006 Debacle, and are ready to crush the Hezzies. And if they're NOT, then they have NO chance against Iran -- and might as well srrender Israel because Muslims simply want it more than jewish people do.

As for chemical weapons, that's WMD. Even if one is used, that's a game-changer --- now Israel can use their tactical nukes, neuteron bombs and all manner of EMP.

Btw, isn't funny how pathetic liberals and other cowardly progressives were all over President Bush's nuts because dared to take the issue of chemical weapons in the hands of Baath Party seriously.... It turns out that Assad had even more of them than Saddam whjo smiuggled them out to both Syria (and Iran by air).

And because Bush was not allowed to finish the Axis of Evil job when it could have been done with limited damage 10 years ago.... we are at the proverbial precipitice today.

Inwonder if the Democratic National Convention zombies ever have regrets about being, in effect, complicit in Israel's possible destruction -- and possible even the US eventually, too..... LOL

"
and (probably) attacks on various israeli and jewish targets around the world. "


That would be very, very sad. Muslims sure love their soft targets. I can still picture Mohammad Merab or whatever that evil clown's name was in Toulouse, chasing down that little girl across the school's yard, grabbing her by her blond hair, looking deep into her beautiful blue eyes --- in that precise moment all the collective Mohammadean Hatred over the last millenium embodied in that subhuman loser became crystalized in his evil gaze -- and then shot her in the head....

But guess what? Hezbollah will attack innocents 10 fold if/when they are backed by nuclear Iran.

"would be a substantial delay in iranian nuclear development"

Good, that's all Israel wants right now. The 5 year delay will allow it to re-group, get stronger economically with off-shore gas./oil, and finish developing some awesome, borderline futuristic tech that could be used against the (by then economically shattered) Iran should it decide to continue to act like an international mega-returd.

"but as aton suggests, it's possible (likely, even) that iran is working with outside parties and an attack on iranian facilities would just see them move the entire program offshore."

Don't get me North Korea has it coming, too. But that's something that will be coordinated with South Korea, Japan, China and the US of course at a later date. But first thing's first: Iran

"i expect the iranian will never acknowledge possessing a nuclear weapon."

Israel and US will know, anyway. And will bitch-slap Iran accordingly.

"a third result would be the further diplomatic isolation of israe, albeit to a lesser degree"

Much less diplomatic fall-out than an outright, dumb pre-emptive bombing campaign.

Again, IMO. Thank for your perspective, as always.
Anonymous Coward
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09/07/2012 01:47 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
For those who followed more than conversations today on the thread, there were many serious dots to consider.
The latest, Pakistan is under a direct threat from the Taliban against its Khan nuclear weapons plant.
Of other concern, what is Barak saying or doing. Today, Barak said there are differences between the US and Israel but he too said the US
Is ready to use all of its forces which are accumulating in the gulf to take on Iran. Diametrically opposed to each other?
Others say the next 50 days could be very comparable to the 6 day war time frame.
Of course Obahmah lies about Israel and there is no faith in the US. So what gives? The US is beefing up military war power. Syria is under Iran's influence and has dispersed chemical weapons so that they can not be taken directly and quickly by western forces. Israel is in a dilemma of trying to pray as to whether to attack Iran or not and depend on the US.
Quite a mess.
My thoughts, it is all coming to a head soon.
High chance Israel does what she knows is best for her, attack Iran in some fashion. The US will be there to support her indirectly. No doubt about it. election time and Bibi and Barack and Barak know it.
Syria knows it too and is upping her alert and prepping with Hezbollah to spoil things if given a chance.

Hang on in the coming two weeks.Right Steve!
 Quoting: MIL MAN


Reshuffling the deck: Barak now opposes Israeli strike on Iran, sources say

People who have met the defense minister in recent weeks say he cites his objections with the same conviction and skill he used to support an attack just two months ago.

[link to www.haaretz.com]
 Quoting: Swinburnian


LMAO!

Swin and I were talking just yesterday about how much of a SNAKE and SELL-OUT INCOMPETENT Ehud Barak has always been.

And us agreeing like that... well that's, uh, something. LOL.
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
Canada closes Iran embassy, to expel remaining Iranian diplomats

Canada has closed its embassy in Iran and will expel all remaining Iranian diplomats in Canada within five days, Foreign Minister John Baird said on Friday.

Baird said in a statement that the Iranian government was "the most significant threat to global peace and security in the world today." He cited Iran's nuclear program and Iranian military assistance to Syria.

[link to thestar.com.my]
 Quoting: tmorais


at least there is one north american govt with a semblance of balls
 Quoting: godzilla85


:)

we don't have all that much power or influence, but it's worth noting that, as far as international diplomacy goes, canada is in fact the best friend israel has
 Quoting: Swinburnian


It's no secret that jewish people tend to have BIG hearts and compassion and easily fall for the sweat dreams & cheap idealistic lies historically peddled so generously by the Marxist Matrix. They're also insecure after mllinea of persecution & rejection -- especially the young Jewish women -- they aim to please everyone and resolve everything as peacefully as possible.

And that's noble sentiment at heart, however misguided also explain the Obama love.

Me being only 1/2 Jew, however... I have no problems with evil being crushed -- whether Muslim, Marxist or Neo-Nazi variety.

We need some Golem up in this bitch, he'd know what to do with Iran!

it's also worth noting that the Prime Minister responsible for that represent a parliamentary constituency (Calgary SW, in Alberta) where maybe 80% of Calgary's Jewish community lives, and that probably 60 to 70 percent of votes cast by jewish people in the last election were cast against him. funny world.
 Quoting: Swinburnian
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
...


at least there is one north american govt with a semblance of balls
 Quoting: godzilla85


:)

we don't have all that much power or influence, but it's worth noting that, as far as international diplomacy goes, canada is in fact the best friend israel has
 Quoting: Swinburnian


It's no secret that jewish people tend to have BIG hearts and compassion and easily fall for the sweat dreams & cheap idealistic lies historically peddled so generously by the Marxist Matrix. They're also insecure after mllinea of persecution & rejection -- especially the young Jewish women -- they aim to please everyone and resolve everything as peacefully as possible.

And that's noble sentiment at heart, however misguided also explain the Obama love.

Me being only 1/2 Jew, however... I have no problems with evil being crushed -- whether Muslim, Marxist or Neo-Nazi variety.

We need some Golem up in this bitch, he'd know what to do with Iran!

it's also worth noting that the Prime Minister responsible for that represent a parliamentary constituency (Calgary SW, in Alberta) where maybe 80% of Calgary's Jewish community lives, and that probably 60 to 70 percent of votes cast by jewish people in the last election were cast against him. funny world.
 Quoting: Swinburnian

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14322851


that's a fair analysis, though i think we must know different young jewish women.

good luck with that "half-jewish" thing :)
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
This is a very interesting article to read about sunnis and shiites, and the ME conflict.

It is long, but for those who didn't get into the subject yet, it takes 15 minutes to read and it is in english:

[link to www.spiegel.de]

At the end of this article it says:

"There is an apocalyptic prophecy in Islam that some attribute to the Prophet Muhammad. It's only a fragment, the legend of an evil being known as the Sufyani that will one day arrive to sow death and ruin among the faithful. This tradition, supposedly ascribed to Muhammad, says the Sufyani will rise from the depths of the Earth beneath Damascus."
Anonymous Coward
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
This is a very interesting article to read about sunnis and shiites, and the ME conflict.

It is long, but for those who didn't get into the subject yet, it takes 15 minutes to read and it is in english:

[link to www.spiegel.de]

At the end of this article it says:

"There is an apocalyptic prophecy in Islam that some attribute to the Prophet Muhammad. It's only a fragment, the legend of an evil being known as the Sufyani that will one day arrive to sow death and ruin among the faithful. This tradition, supposedly ascribed to Muhammad, says the Sufyani will rise from the depths of the Earth beneath Damascus."
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


good read. thanks!
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
Preparation:

Prepping with Fangs: Dogs for a Survivalist, by Dale in Northeastern Tennessee

[link to www.survivalblog.com]
Anonymous Coward
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09/07/2012 04:10 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
Annother preperation hint:

Thread: How to beat facial recognition cameras.
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09/07/2012 05:16 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
Annother preparation

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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
Barak hints the US would join Israel in Iran strike
[link to www.jpost.com]



If you read the article it seems more like fluffed up meeting between Barak and US Adm. James Winnefeld to save face from the disastrous meeting last week.
It's also another story that has Barak contradicting something he said in the previous 36 Hours. More disinformation imo. Anyone else sense an increase in dysinfo and psy ops of late?

Perhaps we are far closer to the brink than anyone is even aware of.
tmorais

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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
EU preparing new sanctions on Iran over nuclear program

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the new restrictive measures would target "financial, commercial and oil aspects." Something concrete should be ready in time for the next United Nations General Assembly in 10 days, he said. while German's Guido Westerwelle spoke of adopting the sanctions around October 15.

"If they will not come back to the table, then probably the next round is necessary. This is not something for next year, we are talking about next weeks," he said.

[link to www.haaretz.com]

-

Yesterday Ahmadinejad complained in public about Iran's crescent economic problems and now has to deal with this new round of sanctions...
tmorais

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09/07/2012 06:18 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
The mission: Target Israelis

Iran's Quds Force, widely considered to be Tehran's black-ops arm, executes terror attacks overseas. Encouraged by its success in Burgas, it now has its sights on other destinations.

The Counter Terrorism Bureau has recently reiterated a series of travel advisories urging Israeli tourists to be vigilant in their travels; while also urging countries frequented by Israelis to bolster security; citing that the successful terror attack against Israelis in Burgas will trigger additional attempts.

[link to www.ynetnews.com]
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
OT (again) - BUT you did call this the World at War thread....

AFRICOM's mouthpiece is talking up the al-Qaeda threat in North Africa

Is Algeria the West's next target (after Syria & Iran)?

Or is AFRICOM simply justifying its FY2014 budget request?

From Mashreq to Maghreb: al-Qaeda shifts focus (Magharebia.com) url shortener/RJ6yzA

Sorry about the link failure - If you are interested in article - goto Magharebia.com select English Language site - the article is on the main page - again apologies for link failure
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
...


:)

we don't have all that much power or influence, but it's worth noting that, as far as international diplomacy goes, canada is in fact the best friend israel has
 Quoting: Swinburnian


It's no secret that jewish people tend to have BIG hearts and compassion and easily fall for the sweat dreams & cheap idealistic lies historically peddled so generously by the Marxist Matrix. They're also insecure after mllinea of persecution & rejection -- especially the young Jewish women -- they aim to please everyone and resolve everything as peacefully as possible.

And that's noble sentiment at heart, however misguided also explain the Obama love.

Me being only 1/2 Jew, however... I have no problems with evil being crushed -- whether Muslim, Marxist or Neo-Nazi variety.

We need some Golem up in this bitch, he'd know what to do with Iran!

it's also worth noting that the Prime Minister responsible for that represent a parliamentary constituency (Calgary SW, in Alberta) where maybe 80% of Calgary's Jewish community lives, and that probably 60 to 70 percent of votes cast by jewish people in the last election were cast against him. funny world.
 Quoting: Swinburnian

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 14322851


that's a fair analysis, though i think we must know different young jewish women.

good luck with that "half-jewish" thing :)
 Quoting: Swinburnian


I dunno many Jewish girls seem to be insecure to me especially about their looks. Trying way too hard, too but that's probably the age thing. But who knows maybe you're right and they mature into confident women.

Nothing wrong with insecurity, per se. All the greats were insecure and ambitious because of it. Especially in the performance arts. Brando, Smoktunovsky, Olivier, Sarah Bernhardt, et al ahhaha oh mercy! Meryl Streep to be the most balanced, but I bet when she was young, she was a wreck, too, LOL.

And then there is the Obama thespianus mirabilis.... :)
DblTapViper

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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I've been thinking today about the US/Israel up coming war games. And, the most recent knife in back from Obama about not helping Israel attack Iran on Israel's timeline.

My thoughts center around the idea of: If I was the leader of Israel and I just got into an almost fist fight with the US representative - what would I be thinking and, more importantly, what would I be doing.

First do I believe the representative? The answer is NO. Do I believe that the US will not give me what I need during the first stages of my attack, Yes. So basically, I can count on the US for support during a counterattack by Iran. This support will come very late in the game. If I (Israel) show any weakness in our attack on Iran this will present opportunities to other Arab country - If I show weakness and they show a willingness to hit me (Israel) with everything they've got, before the US can muster the backbone to act, Israel is destroyed. So what do I do...?

Fact: The US dropped the first couple nukes.

Do I arm my first strike bunker buster with nukes?

DO I set off a few high alt nukes EMPs?

If I (Israel)do this what do I gain?

I scare the shit out of the US. Which means that they will put everything they have into making the pain stop. Every ship, every plane everything they have will be put into play, instantly. No waiting for a decision from Obama.

Do I (Israel) get attacked by any other Arab country thinking that they might have an advantage? NO. They will be scared shitless too.

Hmm..... Seems like if I use nukes in the first strike, it's a win, win for me (Israel).

What do I lose? Well, everyone will hate me. Wait, they already do...

What do you think?
DblTapViper
godzilla85

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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I've been thinking today about the US/Israel up coming war games. And, the most recent knife in back from Obama about not helping Israel attack Iran on Israel's timeline.

My thoughts center around the idea of: If I was the leader of Israel and I just got into an almost fist fight with the US representative - what would I be thinking and, more importantly, what would I be doing.

First do I believe the representative? The answer is NO. Do I believe that the US will not give me what I need during the first stages of my attack, Yes. So basically, I can count on the US for support during a counterattack by Iran. This support will come very late in the game. If I (Israel) show any weakness in our attack on Iran this will present opportunities to other Arab country - If I show weakness and they show a willingness to hit me (Israel) with everything they've got, before the US can muster the backbone to act, Israel is destroyed. So what do I do...?

Fact: The US dropped the first couple nukes.

Do I arm my first strike bunker buster with nukes?

DO I set off a few high alt nukes EMPs?

If I (Israel)do this what do I gain?

I scare the shit out of the US. Which means that they will put everything they have into making the pain stop. Every ship, every plane everything they have will be put into play, instantly. No waiting for a decision from Obama.

Do I (Israel) get attacked by any other Arab country thinking that they might have an advantage? NO. They will be scared shitless too.

Hmm..... Seems like if I use nukes in the first strike, it's a win, win for me (Israel).

What do I lose? Well, everyone will hate me. Wait, they already do...

What do you think?
 Quoting: DblTapViper


I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
DblTapViper

User ID: 9050718
United States
09/07/2012 07:35 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I've been thinking today about the US/Israel up coming war games. And, the most recent knife in back from Obama about not helping Israel attack Iran on Israel's timeline.

My thoughts center around the idea of: If I was the leader of Israel and I just got into an almost fist fight with the US representative - what would I be thinking and, more importantly, what would I be doing.

First do I believe the representative? The answer is NO. Do I believe that the US will not give me what I need during the first stages of my attack, Yes. So basically, I can count on the US for support during a counterattack by Iran. This support will come very late in the game. If I (Israel) show any weakness in our attack on Iran this will present opportunities to other Arab country - If I show weakness and they show a willingness to hit me (Israel) with everything they've got, before the US can muster the backbone to act, Israel is destroyed. So what do I do...?

Fact: The US dropped the first couple nukes.

Do I arm my first strike bunker buster with nukes?

DO I set off a few high alt nukes EMPs?

If I (Israel)do this what do I gain?

I scare the shit out of the US. Which means that they will put everything they have into making the pain stop. Every ship, every plane everything they have will be put into play, instantly. No waiting for a decision from Obama.

Do I (Israel) get attacked by any other Arab country thinking that they might have an advantage? NO. They will be scared shitless too.

Hmm..... Seems like if I use nukes in the first strike, it's a win, win for me (Israel).

What do I lose? Well, everyone will hate me. Wait, they already do...

What do you think?
 Quoting: DblTapViper


I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


Note that I suggested bunker busters - so basically an underground nuke "test"

Please go into detail as to the retaliation, by Who and How?
DblTapViper
Steve5728

User ID: 21752721
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09/07/2012 07:35 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I've been thinking today about the US/Israel up coming war games. And, the most recent knife in back from Obama about not helping Israel attack Iran on Israel's timeline.

My thoughts center around the idea of: If I was the leader of Israel and I just got into an almost fist fight with the US representative - what would I be thinking and, more importantly, what would I be doing.

First do I believe the representative? The answer is NO. Do I believe that the US will not give me what I need during the first stages of my attack, Yes. So basically, I can count on the US for support during a counterattack by Iran. This support will come very late in the game. If I (Israel) show any weakness in our attack on Iran this will present opportunities to other Arab country - If I show weakness and they show a willingness to hit me (Israel) with everything they've got, before the US can muster the backbone to act, Israel is destroyed. So what do I do...?

Fact: The US dropped the first couple nukes.

Do I arm my first strike bunker buster with nukes?

DO I set off a few high alt nukes EMPs?

If I (Israel)do this what do I gain?

I scare the shit out of the US. Which means that they will put everything they have into making the pain stop. Every ship, every plane everything they have will be put into play, instantly. No waiting for a decision from Obama.

Do I (Israel) get attacked by any other Arab country thinking that they might have an advantage? NO. They will be scared shitless too.

Hmm..... Seems like if I use nukes in the first strike, it's a win, win for me (Israel).

What do I lose? Well, everyone will hate me. Wait, they already do...

What do you think?
 Quoting: DblTapViper


I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


bump
Anonymous Coward
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09/07/2012 07:38 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I've been thinking today about the US/Israel up coming war games. And, the most recent knife in back from Obama about not helping Israel attack Iran on Israel's timeline.

My thoughts center around the idea of: If I was the leader of Israel and I just got into an almost fist fight with the US representative - what would I be thinking and, more importantly, what would I be doing.

First do I believe the representative? The answer is NO. Do I believe that the US will not give me what I need during the first stages of my attack, Yes. So basically, I can count on the US for support during a counterattack by Iran. This support will come very late in the game. If I (Israel) show any weakness in our attack on Iran this will present opportunities to other Arab country - If I show weakness and they show a willingness to hit me (Israel) with everything they've got, before the US can muster the backbone to act, Israel is destroyed. So what do I do...?

Fact: The US dropped the first couple nukes.

Do I arm my first strike bunker buster with nukes?

DO I set off a few high alt nukes EMPs?

If I (Israel)do this what do I gain?

I scare the shit out of the US. Which means that they will put everything they have into making the pain stop. Every ship, every plane everything they have will be put into play, instantly. No waiting for a decision from Obama.

Do I (Israel) get attacked by any other Arab country thinking that they might have an advantage? NO. They will be scared shitless too.

Hmm..... Seems like if I use nukes in the first strike, it's a win, win for me (Israel).

What do I lose? Well, everyone will hate me. Wait, they already do...

What do you think?
 Quoting: DblTapViper


Pain, pain, they won't do it. If not attacked, the US military will not go into another blitzkrieg, there won't be an attack on Iran, it will not happen.

If some state will use nukes in an attack on a souvereign nation, the gravity of this world will shift in the seconds after that.

The US will not do that, and Israel will not either. We are not stupid, here in the west. Iran is not stupid either. They are not arabs.

Yes there is a problem with Iran. But it needs to be adressed differently.

And it will.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18746754
France
09/07/2012 07:42 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
OT (again) - BUT you did call this the World at War thread....

AFRICOM's mouthpiece is talking up the al-Qaeda threat in North Africa

Is Algeria the West's next target (after Syria & Iran)?

Or is AFRICOM simply justifying its FY2014 budget request?

From Mashreq to Maghreb: al-Qaeda shifts focus (Magharebia.com) url shortener/RJ6yzA

Sorry about the link failure - If you are interested in article - goto Magharebia.com select English Language site - the article is on the main page - again apologies for link failure
 Quoting: DarbyDoom


From that article:

"Those radicals don't care about Libya's security and stability," says Sheikh Waleed. "They just import ideas from Saudi sheikhs, such as Rabee al-Madkhali," he says. "They are even called the 'Madkhaleen,'" he adds.

Ouuups those saudis are "our friends". Looks like we choosed "our friends" very very badly.
DblTapViper

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09/07/2012 07:43 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I've been thinking today about the US/Israel up coming war games. And, the most recent knife in back from Obama about not helping Israel attack Iran on Israel's timeline.

My thoughts center around the idea of: If I was the leader of Israel and I just got into an almost fist fight with the US representative - what would I be thinking and, more importantly, what would I be doing.

First do I believe the representative? The answer is NO. Do I believe that the US will not give me what I need during the first stages of my attack, Yes. So basically, I can count on the US for support during a counterattack by Iran. This support will come very late in the game. If I (Israel) show any weakness in our attack on Iran this will present opportunities to other Arab country - If I show weakness and they show a willingness to hit me (Israel) with everything they've got, before the US can muster the backbone to act, Israel is destroyed. So what do I do...?

Fact: The US dropped the first couple nukes.

Do I arm my first strike bunker buster with nukes?

DO I set off a few high alt nukes EMPs?

If I (Israel)do this what do I gain?

I scare the shit out of the US. Which means that they will put everything they have into making the pain stop. Every ship, every plane everything they have will be put into play, instantly. No waiting for a decision from Obama.

Do I (Israel) get attacked by any other Arab country thinking that they might have an advantage? NO. They will be scared shitless too.

Hmm..... Seems like if I use nukes in the first strike, it's a win, win for me (Israel).

What do I lose? Well, everyone will hate me. Wait, they already do...

What do you think?
 Quoting: DblTapViper


Pain, pain, they won't do it. If not attacked, the US military will not go into another blitzkrieg, there won't be an attack on Iran, it will not happen.

If some state will use nukes in an attack on a souvereign nation, the gravity of this world will shift in the seconds after that.

The US will not do that, and Israel will not either. We are not stupid, here in the west. Iran is not stupid either. They are not arabs.

Yes there is a problem with Iran. But it needs to be adressed differently.

And it will.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


Suggestion? Nothing has worked up to this point. If you are suggesting that nukes are unusable - then why is Iran so hellbent on getting them?
DblTapViper
godzilla85

User ID: 11287347
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09/07/2012 07:43 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I've been thinking today about the US/Israel up coming war games. And, the most recent knife in back from Obama about not helping Israel attack Iran on Israel's timeline.

My thoughts center around the idea of: If I was the leader of Israel and I just got into an almost fist fight with the US representative - what would I be thinking and, more importantly, what would I be doing.

First do I believe the representative? The answer is NO. Do I believe that the US will not give me what I need during the first stages of my attack, Yes. So basically, I can count on the US for support during a counterattack by Iran. This support will come very late in the game. If I (Israel) show any weakness in our attack on Iran this will present opportunities to other Arab country - If I show weakness and they show a willingness to hit me (Israel) with everything they've got, before the US can muster the backbone to act, Israel is destroyed. So what do I do...?

Fact: The US dropped the first couple nukes.

Do I arm my first strike bunker buster with nukes?

DO I set off a few high alt nukes EMPs?

If I (Israel)do this what do I gain?

I scare the shit out of the US. Which means that they will put everything they have into making the pain stop. Every ship, every plane everything they have will be put into play, instantly. No waiting for a decision from Obama.

Do I (Israel) get attacked by any other Arab country thinking that they might have an advantage? NO. They will be scared shitless too.

Hmm..... Seems like if I use nukes in the first strike, it's a win, win for me (Israel).

What do I lose? Well, everyone will hate me. Wait, they already do...

What do you think?
 Quoting: DblTapViper


I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


Note that I suggested bunker busters - so basically an underground nuke "test"

Please go into detail as to the retaliation, by Who and How?
 Quoting: DblTapViper


I could see Iran pulling out every proxy it's got hell maybe even ones we don't even know about, Egypt could become involved, it may provoke a wmd missile attack from Assad (assuming he's still around if this were to happen) Of course that would be followed by the Israeli reaction which would more than likely be nuclear, once the snowball starts to roll downhill....it is almost impossible to stop it.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18746754
France
09/07/2012 07:58 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


The arab world is changing, due to your government.

Nowadays your government is friends with the moslim brother hood and the saudi salafistes.

Perhaps tomorrow you americans will be pal pals with al quaida ? Ahhhh, no, that was 10 years ago.

Anyways, the US government politics fail, and backlash, as always.
Irak:
didn't you spend thousands of american lifes there? But today the Iran supply route to Syria runs through Irak.

And it is like that, :-), we all laugh a bit, things are just great.
Freedom hahahahahaha, but our carriers are very very mean, and our fire power is very very big.

But Iran supply routes run through Irak, point, and once more, your carriers and fire power and the FACT that you where in Irak, didn't serve anything.

You always win battles, but you win no wars. You the US.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18746754
France
09/07/2012 08:09 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


The arab world is changing, due to your government.

Nowadays your government is friends with the moslim brother hood and the saudi salafistes.

Perhaps tomorrow you americans will be pal pals with al quaida ? Ahhhh, no, that was 10 years ago.

Anyways, the US government politics fail, and backlash, as always.
Irak:
didn't you spend thousands of american lifes there? But today the Iran supply route to Syria runs through Irak.

And it is like that, :-), we all laugh a bit, things are just great.
Freedom hahahahahaha, but our carriers are very very mean, and our fire power is very very big.

But Iran supply routes run through Irak, point, and once more, your carriers and fire power and the FACT that you where in Irak, didn't serve anything.

You always win battles, but you win no wars. You the US.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


The basic fact is, that states and people stay where they are, GIs and marines go away one day, and time is long, and with patience and willing, in time, the tide will turn.

This thinking, and concept, is not at all part of the US doctrine, to go in with big fire power and go out as soon as possible.

The US will vanish one day, religion, allah, and tradition, the true way of life, as it was always, will prevail. God willing. Allah akbahr.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18746754
France
09/07/2012 08:17 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


The arab world is changing, due to your government.

Nowadays your government is friends with the moslim brother hood and the saudi salafistes.

Perhaps tomorrow you americans will be pal pals with al quaida ? Ahhhh, no, that was 10 years ago.

Anyways, the US government politics fail, and backlash, as always.
Irak:
didn't you spend thousands of american lifes there? But today the Iran supply route to Syria runs through Irak.

And it is like that, :-), we all laugh a bit, things are just great.
Freedom hahahahahaha, but our carriers are very very mean, and our fire power is very very big.

But Iran supply routes run through Irak, point, and once more, your carriers and fire power and the FACT that you where in Irak, didn't serve anything.

You always win battles, but you win no wars. You the US.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


The basic fact is, that states and people stay where they are, GIs and marines go away one day, and time is long, and with patience and willing, in time, the tide will turn.

This thinking, and concept, is not at all part of the US doctrine, to go in with big fire power and go out as soon as possible.

The US will vanish one day, religion, allah, and tradition, the true way of life, as it was always, will prevail. God willing. Allah akbahr.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


We had wars, in the west. We had big epic wars. In Europe there were wars, which reduced sometimes populations by 80 %.
In the US there was the civil war, a bitter fight, a fight with all means.

But Iran supply routes run through Irak, point, and once more, your carriers and fire power and the FACT that you where in Irak, didn't serve anything.

NOTHING.
AkivaJeff

User ID: 19183578
United States
09/07/2012 08:18 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


The arab world is changing, due to your government.

Nowadays your government is friends with the moslim brother hood and the saudi salafistes.

Perhaps tomorrow you americans will be pal pals with al quaida ? Ahhhh, no, that was 10 years ago.

Anyways, the US government politics fail, and backlash, as always.
Irak:
didn't you spend thousands of american lifes there? But today the Iran supply route to Syria runs through Irak.

And it is like that, :-), we all laugh a bit, things are just great.
Freedom hahahahahaha, but our carriers are very very mean, and our fire power is very very big.

But Iran supply routes run through Irak, point, and once more, your carriers and fire power and the FACT that you where in Irak, didn't serve anything.

You always win battles, but you win no wars. You the US.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


This is why I like Aton's posts. He poses things from a geographically different perspective than most in the US have. IMHO the US and Israel and Europe has failed in supporting the Balfour agreement from the beginning. There has never in the history of the world been a "Palestine" and the winners of WWII dictated the state of affairs. That should have been the end of it. The palestinians were given TransJordan and refused it and refused to have Israel in the ME. We should have put our foot down long ago.
"Now look what a mess you've gotten us into Stanley".
The point is that the mess we are in is very largely because of our own doing. How to fix it is a different matter.


note: We've done a similar thing with Illegal immigration.

Last Edited by AkivaJeff on 09/07/2012 08:19 PM
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
godzilla85

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09/07/2012 08:24 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I'd defintely due the high level emp stuff, but nukes on the ground is a no go, that reaction or retaliation may be just as bad or worse if that is possible. The Israelis really have nothing to lose only so much to gain mainy security from a threat to it's very existence as a nation, arab world hates em already, that won't change regardless.
 Quoting: godzilla85


The arab world is changing, due to your government.

Nowadays your government is friends with the moslim brother hood and the saudi salafistes.

Perhaps tomorrow you americans will be pal pals with al quaida ? Ahhhh, no, that was 10 years ago.

Anyways, the US government politics fail, and backlash, as always.
Irak:
didn't you spend thousands of american lifes there? But today the Iran supply route to Syria runs through Irak.

And it is like that, :-), we all laugh a bit, things are just great.
Freedom hahahahahaha, but our carriers are very very mean, and our fire power is very very big.

But Iran supply routes run through Irak, point, and once more, your carriers and fire power and the FACT that you where in Irak, didn't serve anything.

You always win battles, but you win no wars. You the US.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


This is why I like Aton's posts. He poses things from a geographically different perspective than most in the US have. IMHO the US and Israel and Europe has failed in supporting the Balfour agreement from the beginning. There has never in the history of the world been a "Palestine" and the winners of WWII dictated the state of affairs. That should have been the end of it. The palestinians were given TransJordan and refused it and refused to have Israel in the ME. We should have put our foot down long ago.
"Now look what a mess you've gotten us into Stanley".
The point is that the mess we are in is very largely because of our own doing. How to fix it is a different matter.


note: We've done a similar thing with Illegal immigration.
 Quoting: AkivaJeff


AMEN!!!
Anonymous Coward
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09/07/2012 08:25 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I suggest the following: for example for Israel (but for the west in general):

Tell everybody in a brief statement that all pinpoint strikes will stop, that borders are respected, and that you expect that from everybody else.

If there are missiles landing in Sderot incoming from Gaza, for example.

Flatten the place, burn it to the ground, raze the cities.

Then ask in a mildly voice if somebody else would like to send another missile, for example to Sderot ?

I bet there will be nobody sticking their nose out of their hole.

Nobody.
AkivaJeff

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United States
09/07/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
The real root of the problem:
jewish people can co-exist
Christians can co-exist
Muslims CANNOT co-exist.
This is all according to Doctrine.
Lets call a spade a spade.
Life is short...
But it's WIDE.
godzilla85

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09/07/2012 08:28 PM
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Re: WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
I suggest the following: for example for Israel (but for the west in general):

Tell everybody in a brief statement that all pinpoint strikes will stop, that borders are respected, and that you expect that from everybody else.

If there are missiles landing in Sderot incoming from Gaza, for example.

Flatten the place, burn it to the ground, raze the cities.

Then ask in a mildly voice if somebody else would like to send another missile, for example to Sderot ?

I bet there will be nobody sticking their nose out of their hole.

Nobody.
 Quoting: ^àTOn^


Liking that train of thought Aton, as far as the US goes we should hold that credo that any act of terrorism against US or it's Allies will come with not only the absolute flattening of the group behind the attack, but any government involved will be dealt with in the "harshest" terms possibly so that "no freedom loving person will ever have to live in fear of any kind of terrorism"

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