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Message Subject WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
Poster Handle Gerry52
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 1, 2012,

Putin gave Obama more time US Gen. Martin Dempsey’s assertion Thursday, Aug. 30 that the US would not be “complicit” in an Israel strike against Iran, together with the drastic reduction in the scale of next month’s joint US-Israeli war game disclosed by TIME, add up to a blunt message from US President Barack Obama to Israel: You are on your own! See how you manage without special US weapons and US military backup, including a shield against missile counter-attack, if you decide to defy us and go through with a military operation against Iran.

debkafile’s military sources: The Obama administration has put Israel on harsh notice that an attack on Iran to disrupt or delay its nuclear armament will be refused US missile backup - both in the course of the operation and to cover Israel’s back in the event of a counter-strike widening into a general Middle East conflict. The Netanyahu government will bear full and exclusive responsibility for the consequences of attacking Iran.

Obama, who has repeatedly pledged his commitment to Israeli security, is the first American president to cut Israeli adrift against a major threat to its security explicitly posed by Iran.

In the last month, Obama has undergone a change of face: The top US soldier and ambassador Dan Shapiro were told to st
art treating Israel like a pest and telling its leaders that the administration is fed to the teeth with their clamor for action on Iran.

This change did not come out of the blue. debkafile’s Washington and Moscow sources report it evolved from three events:
1. During this month, President Vladimir Putin severed Russia’s military ties with Iran and Syria as debkafile reported earlier: Obama reciprocated by cutting Israel down to size. Moscow informed Tehran and Damascus that there would be no more Russian arms supplies after the delivery of the last items in the pipeline. Putin therefore left both Iran and Syria high and dry amid war dangers in return for Obama cutting Israel off from advance military hardware at a time of peril.
The Russian and American leaders thus put in place the first bricks of an accord for resolving their disputes over a nuclear Iran and the Syrian crisis by the device of slashing the military capacity of Iran, Israel and Syria.
The Russian president took another step as a gesture to Obama: He pulled Russian warships out of the Syrian base of Tartus and the eastern Mediterranean, leaving only a floating dry dock.
In return, he counted on Washington forcing Israel to abandon any plans to strike Iran.
2. But this exercise in symmetrical reciprocity ran into a major snag: Obama found a tough nut in Jerusalem: Binyamin Netanyahu held out for a pledge of US military action against Iran as his price for holding back. Despite the massive pressure Obama threw at the Israeli government, both through the highest ranking US political and military channels and by mobilizing the government’s most vocal opponents and anti-war circles at home, Netanyahu and Barak did not budge.
They understood, despite Obama’s concealment, that the secret US-Russian deal would in fact preserve Iran’s nuclear program at a point at which Iran’s leaders could have a weapon assembled and unsheathed at any moment.
The also realized that as long as Israel’s military option against Iran was alive, the Obama-Putin deal was stuck, because both Iran’s Ali Khamenei and Syria’s Bashar Assad would likewise refuse to fall into line.

When Romney said he would give America’s friends “more loyalty” and Putin “a little less flexibility and more backbone,” he was referring to President Obama’s request from Putin on June 18, at the G20 conference in Mexico, for more time against his promise to the Russian leader of “more flexibility” later.
To keep his deal with Putin in motion, the US president will have to tighten his squeeze on Israel’s leaders to forego an attack on Iran.

Edit: Under 50% with link... [link to www.debka.com]

Thread: US disowns Israel over Iran strike: No weapons or military backup
 Quoting: Gerry52


We have warned that Obahmah could not be trusted.

What do you think Gerry, Israel willing to go it alone stil?
 Quoting: MIL MAN


Either they go it alone forcing Obamas hand if the strait is shut down or they just resign themselves to a nuclear Iran. I can't see that they have many other choices right now. They could also wait and hope that Romney is elected and he helps them out. I would think they are waiting to see what direction the election here takes before doing anything. After all, Iran is not going to have a functional device between now and the election provided they don't already have one.
 Quoting: Gerry52


those are the key aspects to consider. Iran in the visible parts of its program does not have a nuclear weapon and may not have one built before Romney comes into office. Then we must weigh what are the chances Romney wins. That is less than 50 percent when one considers ways Obahmah could cancel an election.
Israel is now being pushed into a corner. No support from the US may mean using greater power in an attack than wished for.
Bibi really blew it trusting Obahmah.
60 day countdown begins towards a nuclear Iran or Israel striking.
 Quoting: MIL MAN


I am not sure exactly what the procedure would be, however I am positive that a president can not cancel an election on his own. It has never happened in our history and I don't think even WWIII could stop it from occurring. You are correct that Romney has less than a 50% chance of winning the presidency based upon past performances, however I do believe this election will be very close. I just can't imagine Israel going up against the entire ME with no support. I can however see a surgical strike on the nuclear labs and facilities in Iran as they have done in the past. Even though these facilities are within mountains they have soft points, the entrances can be so badly damaged that the labs will be unusable for at least several months. Also keep in mind that there is a distinct chance that anyone working in the labs at the time of the strike will die from starvation, suffocation, radiological poisoning or hydro-static shock. These deaths will further set back the development of a nuclear weapon by wiping out their current brain trust including engineers, scientists, highly trained workers and support personnel. It will buy them time to plan their next moves.
 
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