WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.

Again, devil is in the details/nuances

I've heard the same thing about God.

Last Edited by God of X on 09/06/2012 08:27 PM

Um, I guess?????? You've set out a simple plan for success. Blow up "the" Mountain. Iran will respond. Israel can then respond without Public Opinion killing it.... Is there more details and nuances to your plan that I'm missing?

Again, devil is in the details/nuances. Yes, in the past as Swinburn pointed out, there was unwarranted hope that Iranians would throw off the Ruhollah Khomeini yoke all on their own. Maybe even in June 2009.

But the Arab Spring COMPLETELY changed the calculus. Yes, as I mentioned IRGC and the Basij militia are formiddable. But once Iranian economy completely tanks, there will be no stopping the 75 million strong Persian Locomotive of Discontent.

Remember, the sanctions in their present form are only 2-3 years old and only very recently the ones targeting energy sector & Iranian banking have been enacted. So far Iran has been able to bypass them, but once US,Europe and Israel REALLY roll their sleeves back and start utilizing their means, including electronic/cyber.... Heck, Iraninan currency Rial is already tanking. Better late than never, obviously US will need some more time.

Also remember the ORIGINAL point I was making to Gerry and Swinburn:

a) attacking Iran first head-on is too risky and politically suicidal

b) provoking Iran to lash out once their precious uranium-enriching facilities go up in flames from "inside".... could just work.

c) waiting for Ali Khamenei to die and be replaced by the Persian Nelson Mandela is pipe dreaming. Regime change can only come in coordination with military option, which presumably includes harassing Iran with Stuxnet, asssasinations explosions and the like -- only on a bigger scale than is currently done. And of course working with Iran's protectors Russia and China behind the scenes in order to make it worth their while to stay out of it.


Nothing ideal or guaranteed here, goes without saying.

But again, WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST? DO nothing? Nuke Iran off the map pre-emptively with megaton monsters?
Come on, now.

___
now playing: 'At the Beach' - David Wingo (
"Take Shelter" ending)

But what are you suggesting B

Gee don't remember saying that.... but Wishin' and hopin' ain't much of a plan either. You may have forgotten China and Russia and India supplying most of Iran's needs. The only way is to stave them out. I don't see that happening.

Gee, I don't saying that, either.

If anything, I've been one of the more Hawkish people in this thread since I started posting on GLP a month ago--

and also made my displeasure with not only Western negligence of the Iranian problem the last 20 years... but also eviscerated most of the Israeli leaders in that same time span.

So you're preaching the choir, in that sense.

(Nevermind that someone who hasn't even been ALIVE during those same 20 years, my credibility is rather limited. Easy for me to criticise from sheltered comfort, in other words).

Anyway. Lest we all get confused even more, let's get back to where I differ with some of the hawkish pundits and some posters in this thread:

a) Sending IAF jets full-on to Iran with a limited amount of re-fuel tankers that Israel has, to boot...is RIDICULOUSLY risky, unacceptably so IMO, proposition. Electronic Warfare suites on the F-16 can only do so much.

b) Yes, those 3-4 Dolphins with their alleged Turbo Popeye cruise missiles are nice... but what happens when they're sunk in the Persian gulf clusterf*ck? Dolphins are stealthy but contrary to the popular belief they are NOT invisible or invincible. Do you think Iran will not have access to both Russian AND Chinese intelligence, satellites and maybe even with help of North Korean (they have some 70 of them alone!) subs patrolling that enclosed Gulf area.

c) "Political fallout & international condemnation" may be overused cliches, but in this case, if Israel is seen as the clear-cut AGGRESSOR, the backlash may just reach critical mass.


War is unavoidable, either way, IMO. I'd much rather the Mullahs blink first and end up being blamed for starting it.

And if the situation is so dire that Israel cannot afford to wait afford to wait for Iran to blink first...then we're all f*cked anyway -- forget the air-force, or precision-bombing; Israel might as well use Jericho-2 and Jericho-3 if you know what I mean.

What I find diagreeable about talking with you is that a person can agree with you substatnially but if they say one thing that even vaguely disagrees with your analysis you pounce and go on and on and on, straying from any point you may have had into the realm of assumptions about other views you conclude the disagree-er holds.

So I'm tempted to say that I agree with most of what you say here and leave it at that. But ... what bothers me about your conclusion is

a)that it assumes that the Iranians will take the bait. you and many others assume the that the Iranians aren't rational players and they obviously do hold to a subrational ideology, but where has their foreign policy since the Iran-Iraq war (and were they really less rational that the parties in WWII then?) showed them to be anything other than rather shrewd calculators of how to get their own way? why would it be different this time?

b) that it also assumes that the world at large won't see the attack (because whatever the form it takes, it'll be just that) as an Israeli action even if Israel doesn't acknowledge it? you seem to think the very people (the obama administration and the eu countries)who've been delaying action against iran for as long as possible will suddenly be compelled to act in israel's interest. they won't. and of course iran has ways of retaliating through that won't open it up to more international action.

now i've written all that, your plan actually seems better to me than it did before. i'd expect the end result to be a war with hezbollah (risky, given the chemical weapon situation in syria, but giving israel the chance to do what they didn't in 2006) and (probably) attacks on various israeli and jewish targets around the world, concentrating on countries that won't or can't do much to retaliate. since i live in one of those countries and my entire family spends a fair amount of time in jewish institutions of one kind or another, that worries me, but not so much that i'd want israel not to take out iranian nuclear sites.

the other result (one hopes) would be a substantial delay in iranian nuclear development, but as aton suggests, it's possible (likely, even) that iran is working with outside parties and an attack on iranian facilities would just see them move the entire program offshore. i expect the iranian will never acknowledge possessing a nuclear weapon.

a third result would be the further diplomatic isolation of israe, albeit to a lesser degree than if there wre a flat-out military strike. if israel starts something, nobody is going to believe they didn't.

Does this mean the world thinks that America will carry out an Iran strike before Israel?

Last Edited by fromSouthCarolina on 09/06/2012 10:09 PM

Isn't this where Obama drew the line to attack Syria?

Last Edited by fromSouthCarolina on 09/06/2012 10:12 PM

Taliban threat: Nuclear site in DG Khan cordoned off
[link to tribune.com.pk]


Always other flys in the ointment. There is a serious effort by militants to take over a base that has nuclear weapons within Pakistan.

What We Know About Iran's Nukes
[link to online.wsj.com]

For those who followed more than conversations today on the thread, there were many serious dots to consider.
The latest, Pakistan is under a direct threat from the Taliban against its Khan nuclear weapons plant.
Of other concern, what is Barak saying or doing. Today, Barak said there are differences between the US and Israel but he too said the US
Is ready to use all of its forces which are accumulating in the gulf to take on Iran. Diametrically opposed to each other?
Others say the next 50 days could be very comparable to the 6 day war time frame.
Of course Obahmah lies about Israel and there is no faith in the US. So what gives? The US is beefing up military war power. Syria is under Iran's influence and has dispersed chemical weapons so that they can not be taken directly and quickly by western forces. Israel is in a dilemma of trying to pray as to whether to attack Iran or not and depend on the US.
Quite a mess.
My thoughts, it is all coming to a head soon.
High chance Israel does what she knows is best for her, attack Iran in some fashion. The US will be there to support her indirectly. No doubt about it. election time and Bibi and Barack and Barak know it.
Syria knows it too and is upping her alert and prepping with Hezbollah to spoil things if given a chance.

Hang on in the coming two weeks.Right Steve!

MM, once again we agree!

The next two weeks will be ones to watch my friend!!!



Last Edited by Steve5728 on 09/07/2012 12:43 AM

c) "Political fallout & international condemnation" may be overused cliches, but in this case, if Israel is seen as the clear-cut AGGRESSOR, the backlash may just reach critical mass.

This is the truest thing said on here tonight

Reshuffling the deck: Barak now opposes Israeli strike on Iran, sources say

People who have met the defense minister in recent weeks say he cites his objections with the same conviction and skill he used to support an attack just two months ago.

[link to www.haaretz.com]

i thnk his line was using them

Canada closes Iran embassy, to expel remaining Iranian diplomats

Canada has closed its embassy in Iran and will expel all remaining Iranian diplomats in Canada within five days, Foreign Minister John Baird said on Friday.

Baird said in a statement that the Iranian government was "the most significant threat to global peace and security in the world today." He cited Iran's nuclear program and Iranian military assistance to Syria.

[link to thestar.com.my]

at least there is one north american govt with a semblance of balls

Barak's position of being against an Iranian attack is actually the exact position I would want him to be within the public. Leaking this position is excellent in Israel keeping the disinformation going. Whether it is accurate or not, it may be exactly what is needed to stop the pressure from the left as they would then think it is a done deal that Israel is inclined to not attack Iran. Thus this diplomatic battle of the left and the left media may actually calm down.
At the same time, we are getting closer to one of only a few windows being open for attack on Iran either overtly or covertly. Israeli leaders are actually reading the actions of HeBollah and Syria daily like tea leaves on determining whether an attack would negatively impact events to the north and north east.
With a large force coming into position from the US, America is ready for anything too. Though Obahmah may be opposed to an attack and there is discussion of the US not assisting Israel if Iran is attacked, again, that is a public position I would want America to take to try to limit the reaction of Iran towards the US and it's allies. This force is also in the ready if Syria conflagration in order to limit any Iranian responses. With the talk of arms shipments through Iraq, there is a strong possibility of US involvement covertly to stop such shipments, which too could turn events rather quickly. The large American force likewise is As talked about, the big stick, trying to force Iran to get back to negotiations ASAP. However, Iran still will not budge, no surprise on her part. Things are steadily coming to a head with one of many possible relief valves out there. Hezbollah attacks, Syria releasing chemical weapons to units, Iran closing the strait or mining it at least, Israel taking its military option, Obahmah sponsoring some covert attacks on Iran. There are many possibilities and we may see many of the options used in the coming 58 days or yawn, much more of this maligned sticky messy diplomacy and false threats of war that has so far kept Iran on its toes, and allowed the middleeast to unravel in negative ways.

So we are about to start the first weekend in the windows of opportunity for a strike against Iran.
I hope there will not be any trigger happy guy arround, else it could become really bloody.

If I was Israel I would do it now. The sooner the better, especially when the economic situation in Iran is not so good. I don't think all the iranian want to wipe out Israel, just the leaders.

When Israel will strike they better try to comunicate with the civilians and start helping them (food, consummer goods, electricity). Else the iranian citizens will easily turn their mind against Israel, instead of their government.

I would love working at the NRO and seeing ME updated maps !

:)

we don't have all that much power or influence, but it's worth noting that, as far as international diplomacy goes, canada is in fact the best friend israel has

it's also worth noting that the Prime Minister responsible for that represent a parliamentary constituency (Calgary SW, in Alberta) where maybe 80% of Calgary's Jewish community lives, and that probably 60 to 70 percent of votes cast by jewish people in the last election were cast against him. funny world.

when barak changed his position i almost shit my pants, thats the highest degree of disinfo i could imagine... i never expected the disinfo to be thrown in my face like that

Britain urges EU to blacklist Hezbollah military wing

Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague on Friday urged the European Union to place the military branch of the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah on its list of "terrorist" organizations.

"I would like to see the EU designate and sanction the military wing of Hezbollah," Hague said in response to a question on arriving for talks with his EU counterparts.

[link to www.nowlebanon.com]

-

Dutch FM urges EU to place Hezbollah on terror group list

“The Netherlands has made another appeal to European Union members to place Hezbollah on the EU list of terrorist organizations,” Rosenthal said Wednesday evening in Amsterdam at a political debate organized by the Center for Information and Documentation on Israel, or CIDI.

Commenting on recent violence in Syria, he added, “You see what happens when this organization is allowed to operate freely.”

[link to www.timesofisrael.com]

US to designate Haqqani network as terror group

The US is to designate the Pakistan-based militant Haqqani network as a terrorist organisation, subjecting it to sanctions.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she had sent a report to Congress saying the network met the criteria as a terror group.

[link to www.bbc.co.uk]

"What I find diagreeable about talking with you is that a person can agree with you substatnially but if they say one thing that even vaguely disagrees with your analysis you pounce "

What you see as minor disagreement, I see as major. For instance, I think the idea of Israel pre-emptively sending its entire air-force 1500 km away, over hostile territory no less -- into the teeth of Iran's redundant SAMs, ... is crazy. The world will not stand for it even if it works. Which it may not. Remember, Israel has only ONE shot to get it just right-- to come close to perfection as humanly possible. If they blow it, Israel could be destroyed. Certainly Netanyahu, Lieberman and Right-wing parties would be crushed in next elections. I can just see it now: Avoda-Meretz Coalition, with Shelley Yachimovich and Zahava Gallion holding hands and giving Israel to Fakestinians as lumpen retards cherer and have gay sex all over Rothschild Boulevard as they burn Star of David flag. Le horror. :)

"and go on and on and on"

My command of English is n yet ideal; my unbridled wild temperament + improvisational nature of my aspired profession = my posts are not optimally structured, tend to free-flow.

Sorry.

"a)that it assumes that the Iranians will take the bait."

If Iranians DON'T take the bait... all the better. US and Israel can blow up or "malfunction" even more critical sites, tightenen the noose around Iran's economy even more, much more....and keep provoking internal unrest every which way using that billios-dollar CIA Black Budget.

At some point Iran will blink and do something stupid in te Gulf or Lebanon. Anyone would. It's a shame that it's come down Armagedon brinkksmanship, but you can thankk the West's neglect of the nuclear issue in the last 20+ years. If there is Hell, few spots are reserved for Bill Clinton alone. I wonder if feels any remorse as he shills for Obama these days....

"you and many others assume the that the Iranians aren't rational players "

That's because they are certifiably insane. Irrational fanatics CAN appear behave "rationally" for a time, especially once they are smart enough to employ Western PR consultants -- all while the Western leftists prefer to argue themselves into pretzels in order to justify INACTION and APPEASEMENT.....all while retrospectively assigning all manner of "rational" characterizations to the Twelver Psychos.

"b) that it also assumes that the world at large won't see the attack (because whatever the form it takes, it'll be just that) as an Israeli action even if Israel doesn't acknowledge it?"

The world can assume all it wants. International law is something else. Even it were possible to connect the dots to Israel, it would take independent investigators months, if not YEARS to prove anything -- and that's assuming Iran's wounded pride would allow them to seek Western assistence.

Syrian reactor, nothing. Half-dozen mysterious explosions in late 2011 and early 2012, including the missile expert and 2/3 Shahab-3 stockpiles? Nada. Scientists? Nil.


"you seem to think the very people (the obama administration and the eu countries)who've been delaying action against iran for as long as possible will suddenly be compelled to act in israel's interest."

First of all, deep down they don't want nuclear Iran, that already has ICBM capbabilties, lest we forget.

More importantly, once Iran overreacts & sinks a few tankers/warships or closes Strait of Hormuz -- Obama's, Cameron's, Merkel's et all collective hand will be forced, like it or not.

"i'd expect the end result to be a war with hezbollah (risky, given the chemical weapon situation in syria, but giving israel the chance to do what they didn't in 2006)"

Well, yeah. I hope the, IMO, incompetent, cowardly, corrupt Israli leadership hasn't been sitting sucking their thumbs since 2006 Debacle, and are ready to crush the Hezzies. And if they're NOT, then they have NO chance against Iran -- and might as well srrender Israel because Muslims simply want it more than jewish people do.

As for chemical weapons, that's WMD. Even if one is used, that's a game-changer --- now Israel can use their tactical nukes, neuteron bombs and all manner of EMP.

Btw, isn't funny how pathetic liberals and other cowardly progressives were all over President Bush's nuts because dared to take the issue of chemical weapons in the hands of Baath Party seriously.... It turns out that Assad had even more of them than Saddam whjo smiuggled them out to both Syria (and Iran by air).

And because Bush was not allowed to finish the Axis of Evil job when it could have been done with limited damage 10 years ago.... we are at the proverbial precipitice today.

Inwonder if the Democratic National Convention zombies ever have regrets about being, in effect, complicit in Israel's possible destruction -- and possible even the US eventually, too..... LOL

"
and (probably) attacks on various israeli and jewish targets around the world. "

That would be very, very sad. Muslims sure love their soft targets. I can still picture Mohammad Merab or whatever that evil clown's name was in Toulouse, chasing down that little girl across the school's yard, grabbing her by her blond hair, looking deep into her beautiful blue eyes --- in that precise moment all the collective Mohammadean Hatred over the last millenium embodied in that subhuman loser became crystalized in his evil gaze -- and then shot her in the head....

But guess what? Hezbollah will attack innocents 10 fold if/when they are backed by nuclear Iran.

"would be a substantial delay in iranian nuclear development"

Good, that's all Israel wants right now. The 5 year delay will allow it to re-group, get stronger economically with off-shore gas./oil, and finish developing some awesome, borderline futuristic tech that could be used against the (by then economically shattered) Iran should it decide to continue to act like an international mega-returd.

"but as aton suggests, it's possible (likely, even) that iran is working with outside parties and an attack on iranian facilities would just see them move the entire program offshore."

Don't get me North Korea has it coming, too. But that's something that will be coordinated with South Korea, Japan, China and the US of course at a later date. But first thing's first: Iran

"i expect the iranian will never acknowledge possessing a nuclear weapon."

Israel and US will know, anyway. And will bitch-slap Iran accordingly.

"a third result would be the further diplomatic isolation of israe, albeit to a lesser degree"

Much less diplomatic fall-out than an outright, dumb pre-emptive bombing campaign.

Again, IMO. Thank for your perspective, as always.

LMAO!

Swin and I were talking just yesterday about how much of a SNAKE and SELL-OUT INCOMPETENT Ehud Barak has always been.

And us agreeing like that... well that's, uh, something. LOL.

that's a fair analysis, though i think we must know different young jewish women.

good luck with that "half-jewish" thing :)

This is a very interesting article to read about sunnis and shiites, and the ME conflict.

It is long, but for those who didn't get into the subject yet, it takes 15 minutes to read and it is in english:

[link to www.spiegel.de]

At the end of this article it says:

"There is an apocalyptic prophecy in Islam that some attribute to the Prophet Muhammad. It's only a fragment, the legend of an evil being known as the Sufyani that will one day arrive to sow death and ruin among the faithful. This tradition, supposedly ascribed to Muhammad, says the Sufyani will rise from the depths of the Earth beneath Damascus."