WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.

from another thread -- ac with no source, but worrying

CyrusShares: #Turkey officially at war with #Assad = #NATO officially at war. #Syria #iran
Wednesday, October 03, 2012 4:17:22 PM

this true steve?

Another passing day with the region getting closer and closer to a major conflict!!!

I thought you said "religion"...

I think we've both had a long day!

GOOD MORNING!

MORNING!!

Thread: Israeli Air Force fighter jets shoot down unmanned drone south of Hebron

IDF is investigating whether the drone originated from Gaza or Lebanon.

that should spicen things up around there some more

Another front in WW3!

Israeli journalist Alon Ben David now reporting the enemy drone was in Israel for a spy mission and that it's origin was not from Gaza.

From Egypt then?? Doooooooom if that's the case.

Others suggest different intentions right?

Palestinian reports indicate the drone took off from Gaza. Perhaps the journalist means the drone originated in Iran and was launched in cooperation with Gaza groups.

IDF reports the drone was under surveillance through the duration of its flight and was shot down in a forest to protect nearby towns.

Hebrew Ynet now reporting that according to military estimates the drone did not take off from Gaza. Reports that it came from Gaza were from Palestinian sources apparently.

of course they want credit....trying to make themselves look tougher than they really are

OT Yet Again - Libya Update

Bani Walid - Militias have converged around Bani Walid. BW fighters "kidnapped" 5 militiamen from Zliten. Libya Herald reports -

. . . What this ragtag mixture of brigades lacked in organisational wherewithal, however, was compensated for in terms of raw firepower and combative spirit. It is not known how many forces Bani Walid has at its disposal, but few believe the town can match what is now ranged against it.

While sporadic clashes continue, Bani Walid has been given 5 more days before the militias move in...

Military poised to strike Bani Walid - [link to www.libyaherald.com]

"@JomanaCNN Yes, the deadline was extended 5 days. Voted yesterday. All the guys surrounding Bani Walid learned quickly.”

Political Update - PM-elect Abushugar is expected to name a new cabinet on Sunday. It has been reported that 80% of individuals from his original list will be dropped. The joke on twitter - Will Abushugar make the new list?

Islamist Update - Two suspects in the Benghazi attack were arrested in Turkey (Tunisian nationals). 50 Libyan suspects were identified soon after attack BUT only 4 were arrested. The remaining suspects were, according to Noman Benotman, "sensitive." I presume "sensitive" means very highly placed....So, due to sensitivity issues - the search for suspects may now be focused outside the Libyan justice system...

Tunisian suspects in Stevens case arrested - [link to www.libyaherald.com]
 
Obama Weighs Retaliation for Attacks in Benghazi [link to www.thedailybeast.com]

The drone wreckage has been collected/examined and it was determined it was Iranian technology. They are not saying, and do not believe the flight originated in Iran, but the technology is Iranian. The IAF waited until the drone was clear of any populated areas before taking it down. They were able to jam it's ability to transmit any information during the flight over Israel and believe it was flying autonomously once it's RF systems were jammed. I'm sure we will hear more about it soon. I would guess they already know where the flight originated, however they are keeping it secret in case they decide to retaliate.

As much as I think Doom is coming. I think it holds off until after the election. We'll see. I'm not a psychic, I just think Obama wants to get in 1 more time before he starts the great cull.

Hyperinflation Has Arrived In Iran

"...I estimate that Iran’s monthly inflation rate has reached 69.6%."

[link to www.cato-at-liberty.org]

iranian technology -- but by the area it overflew you'd guess it took off from either Egypt, Saudi Arabia or southern Jordan. odd ....

missed the part where it entered israeli territory from the med. so scratch the comment above

OP/ED in WaPo today... A Syrian wedge between allies Turkey & US

The Obama administration is hesitant toward Syria . . . Erdogan appears to view such concerns as cover for general indifference to Turkey’s Syria problem. A sign of such sentiment emerged Sept. 5, when Erdogan chided Obama on CNN for lacking initiative on Syria — a rare rebuke from an otherwise steadfast friend.

His statement could be a harbinger. Erdogan has a penchant for treating foreign leaders as friends — and losing his temper when he thinks his friends have not stood by him. . .


[link to www.washingtonpost.com]

Panetta to Karzai: Thank U.S. for sacrifices rather than criticize.

The U.S. defense chief called on President Hamid Karzai to thank Americans for the sacrifices of those who fought and died in Afghanistan rather than level criticism at the United States. Panetta's comments followed accusations by Karzai that the United States is not doing enough to fight terror in neighboring Pakistan. Karzai also said the United States is failing to supply Afghan forces with weapons it needs to fight insurgents.

"Look, we have made progress in Afghanistan because there are men and women in uniform who have been willing to fight and die for Afghanistan's sovereignty," Panetta told reporters . . ."and I think it would be helpful if the president, every once in a while, expressed his thanks for the sacrifices that have been made by those who have fought and died for Afghanistan], rather than criticizing them." . . .

Karzai also threatened to turn to Russia and China among others if the United States did not supply Afghanistan with equipment needed to fight the insurgency.

[link to www.cnn.com]

So, lets sum up the situation as is:

1) Iran:
Looks like the sanctions are having an impact. They are in hyperinflation mode.
The only scenario that could prevent Irans economic collapse is, that they back up their currency with another one, chinese currency for example.

In the wake of this development, Israel seems to hold off an attack.

2) Strait of Hormuz:
More carriers and amphibious ships arrived this week or are about to arrive. As of today, these forces serve as a lid to prevent the cattle Iran to explose.

3) Syria:
Apparently US intelligence gives Assad 6 month max. Turkey is getting more and more sucked into the quagmire. Iran and Hizb force are lining up with the syrian army.

4) North Africa:
Al Quaida elements created a safe heaven in Mali. From there they are sending terrorists up north, into Lybia, Tunesia and up to Sinai.
Looks like a military intervention / strike / drones is in preparation, french forces are building up in that area, americans are in south algeria.

5) Libya:
We know from Darby, that the war over there is far from over, stability is far off.

6) Turkey:
Came a long way, at the beginning Erdogan wanted to become member of the EU.
When this didn't work he wanted to become friends with the other arab dictators.
When these dictators fell during the arab spring revolutions, he tried to become more muslim extemist and assertive to please the new moslim brotherhood leaders.

During his last weekend speech at his party convention he made clear wantin to reestablish Turkey as a leader of the arab world.

As Turkeys policy is shifting, it is not clear what he will do next.

Turkey is a wild card and unpredictable and Erdogan is an asshole.

7) Gaza:
Is firmly in the arms of Iran.

8) Hisbollah:
Is firmly in the arms of Iran, actively fighting against the sunnis in Syria.

9) Sunni / Shiite conflict:
Building up in Syria, Iran attempt to stir up the shiites in saudi arabia, bahrein. In Irak civil war between sunnis and shiites on going.

10)Jordan:
Getting hit by salafist and muslim brotherhood "spring" movements

11) Overall security status:
About to explode in the next 6 month

Good analysis. Within six is reasonable. Iran attack in the short term is off.

Amnesty International Tells Libyan Government to Lift Seige of Bani Walid

. . . Many residents are "anticipating a military offensive, but will not leave the city and are ready to die in Bani Walid." . . .

A petition was being circulated . . . asked the U.N. Security Council to convene an emergency meeting and act "to immediately intervene to protect the civilians in the town." The petitioners claimed that pro-government "armed militias" were trying to indiscriminately kill large numbers of people in Bani Walid. . . They report "bombing on civil neighborhoods" on October 1 "with no regards to the lives of unarmed civilians."

Amnesty joined those calling for restraint Friday night. It issued a statement urging "Libyan authorities to avoid unnecessary and excessive use of force in the city and to ensure essential medical supplies are allowed into the city."

[link to www.cnn.com]

Amnesty International's Statement - [link to www.amnesty.org]

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

OT -

total of 15 M3+ EQs in past 24 hours but...

Not a single one in the last 12 hours.

Seem strange to you? Calm before the storm?