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Message Subject WORLD at WAR, Official 2012 Thread (TO BE CONTINUED) Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, PA, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, China, U.S.
Poster Handle Gerry52
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According to the report "Larijani stressed Tehran's commitment to Syria and said Iran is willing to give Assad asylum in case matters reach the point of no return." (Roi Kais)

 Quoting: Steve5728

 Quoting: MIL MAN

Assylum for Assad in Iran means certain death for him and he knows it. We have multiple psychological profiles on Assad over several years that have us convinced he is not in charge of this dog and pony show. We are talking a somewhat meek well educated eye doctor, not a ruthless dictator with the temper of a Putin that has no idea how to run a country let alone a country in civil war. Someone (military leaders)puts on a show now and then and launches a couple of jets that kill a few people, but you have never seen the might and power of the Syrian military unleashed on the rebels. Why not? The rebels have Damascus surrounded, Assads last stronghold and we don't see much if any resistance by the Syrian army. Why not? We think this might be a quiet, well orchestrated coup d'etat with Assad reluctantly playing along in exchange for him, his family and probably friends allowed to live. Take this scenario and apply it back over that last six months and see what you come up with.
 Quoting: Gerry52

Thank you Gerry!

What do you think the chances are of Assad (or whoever the heck is running the show over there) using Bio/Chem against Israel or Turkey???

 Quoting: Steve5728

Hard to say because we really aren't sure who is pulling the strings. No one has actually seen the mixing of any binary components. I am sure that there are many that would argue with us, but we think, even though it is incredibly dangerous, they have moved precursors that should be separated into fewer well protected areas to keep them out of the hands of the somewhat unpredictable rebels. Also a few scientists have told us if you mix the chemicals and then don't use them they are reduced in effectiveness. Either way the collective "we" have waited to long to take out these chemicals by air strikes when they were still inert and separated. Now an air strike will cause the chemicals to mix if not done correctly and there isn't a lot of experience to rely on for this specific scenario. The wild card here is whether Assad or the military may go all genocidal on us and out of sheer revenge they decide to take out the ungrateful citizenry and then they head for the Russian hills where they will never be heard from again. I don't know...you tell me.
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