| Users Online Now: 1,507 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 371,325 | |
| Pageviews Today: 583,414 | Threads Today: 219 | Posts Today: 3,584 |
| 06:30 AM | ||
| Users Online Now: 1,507 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 371,325 | |
| Pageviews Today: 583,414 | Threads Today: 219 | Posts Today: 3,584 |
| 06:30 AM | ||
BALTIC DRY INDEX - Any Experts? | |
| hcc Deplorable CatRWall  User ID: 6493463  United States09/09/2012 10:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 23102372  Malaysia09/09/2012 10:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've been looking at the BDIY chart here: Quoting: hcc [link to www.bloomberg.com] and comparing it with the Dow Index. Looks to me like the BDIY predicts Dow roughly 4 months later (3-5 months). Does that fit with what you know? Some points to note: * BDIY crashed in February 2012, the Dow hit a low June 2012. That's 4 months. * BDIY climbed from Feb through May. Count 4 from May, and you get September. * BDIY hit another significant low in June, predicting the Dow will dip in October (4 months out). * BDIY peaked again in July and has been slip-sliding away since then. This predicts we'll see a Dow "bounce" in November probably due to the excitement around the Presidential election -- maybe due to getting a *new* president? -- then it's gonna tank big time in 2013. Experts is this BS or true? Fascinating thread, OP. Let's talk about this some more! |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've been looking at the BDIY chart here: Quoting: hcc [link to www.bloomberg.com] and comparing it with the Dow Index. Looks to me like the BDIY predicts Dow roughly 4 months later (3-5 months). Does that fit with what you know? Some points to note: * BDIY crashed in February 2012, the Dow hit a low June 2012. That's 4 months. * BDIY climbed from Feb through May. Count 4 from May, and you get September. * BDIY hit another significant low in June, predicting the Dow will dip in October (4 months out). * BDIY peaked again in July and has been slip-sliding away since then. This predicts we'll see a Dow "bounce" in November probably due to the excitement around the Presidential election -- maybe due to getting a *new* president? -- then it's gonna tank big time in 2013. Experts is this BS or true? Fascinating thread, OP. Let's talk about this some more! Sure. You first. |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've been looking at the BDIY chart here: Quoting: hcc [link to www.bloomberg.com] and comparing it with the Dow Index. Looks to me like the BDIY predicts Dow roughly 4 months later (3-5 months). Does that fit with what you know? Some points to note: * BDIY crashed in February 2012, the Dow hit a low June 2012. That's 4 months. * BDIY climbed from Feb through May. Count 4 from May, and you get September. * BDIY hit another significant low in June, predicting the Dow will dip in October (4 months out). * BDIY peaked again in July and has been slip-sliding away since then. This predicts we'll see a Dow "bounce" in November probably due to the excitement around the Presidential election -- maybe due to getting a *new* president? -- then it's gonna tank big time in 2013. Experts is this BS or true? Look at that! It worked! |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've been looking at the BDIY chart here: Quoting: hcc [link to www.bloomberg.com] and comparing it with the Dow Index. Looks to me like the BDIY predicts Dow roughly 4 months later (3-5 months). Does that fit with what you know? Some points to note: * BDIY crashed in February 2012, the Dow hit a low June 2012. That's 4 months. * BDIY climbed from Feb through May. Count 4 from May, and you get September. * BDIY hit another significant low in June, predicting the Dow will dip in October (4 months out). * BDIY peaked again in July and has been slip-sliding away since then. This predicts we'll see a Dow "bounce" in November probably due to the excitement around the Presidential election -- maybe due to getting a *new* president? -- then it's gonna tank big time in 2013. Experts is this BS or true? Why thank you, Gods of pinning!  |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 13137091  Germany09/09/2012 11:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 19932676 United States09/09/2012 11:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 19932676 United States09/09/2012 11:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Judethz User ID: 20521597  United Kingdom09/09/2012 11:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 18381151 United States09/09/2012 11:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 21142675 United States09/09/2012 11:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You can see the chart here: [link to www.bloomberg.com] The lowest BDIY (about 600) occurred in December 2008. The lowest DOW (about 7000) occurred in March 2009. Over the past week the BDIY has been headed south, linearly, and closed Friday at 669. |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | it is obvious. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19932676 look at the 3 yr and 5 yr charts as well... it is stairstepping down with a deathrattle. every time it starts to try to climb up...it is brief and collapses further and further... now approaching the lowest of all time ... game over Yup, pretty much linear downtrend. Do you happen to know what it actually measures? Something about cargo shipping container orders ... ?? |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 5944433 United States09/09/2012 11:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | long story short, you can view transportation as a leading indicator as shipping activity will preceed a wholesaler or consumer buying at the retail level. given that the bdi is low, it appears companies are not shipping as much product, which means they aren't expecting high levels of sales this holiday season. this depressed sales activity won't be priced into the clothing, technology, appliance, etc. stocks that make up the dow until those companies guide down their earnings (however we are already seeing it with companies like intel, last week). |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 5549032 United States09/09/2012 11:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | So here's a question: This index would seem to capture "fundamentals" like supply & demand, the ordinary economy of international commerce. But on the other hand this recession seems to be based on overwhelming bad debt from bad investments in banks around the world. Are the two related? |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 1130777  Japan09/09/2012 11:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/09/2012 11:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | long story short, you can view transportation as a leading indicator as shipping activity will preceed a wholesaler or consumer buying at the retail level. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5944433 given that the bdi is low, it appears companies are not shipping as much product, which means they aren't expecting high levels of sales this holiday season. this depressed sales activity won't be priced into the clothing, technology, appliance, etc. stocks that make up the dow until those companies guide down their earnings (however we are already seeing it with companies like intel, last week). Ok so the connection between the BDIY and the banking debt debacle would be that companies hoarding cash (and consumers too, for that matter) are affecting supply and demand. Consumers aren't demanding and companies aren't supplying. So less get shipped... Thanks! And the 3-5 month delay is just the time it takes for supply-demand changes to express themselves in earnings. |
| telling it straight User ID: 1461054 United States09/09/2012 11:59 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | long story short, you can view transportation as a leading indicator as shipping activity will preceed a wholesaler or consumer buying at the retail level. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5944433 given that the bdi is low, it appears companies are not shipping as much product, which means they aren't expecting high levels of sales this holiday season. this depressed sales activity won't be priced into the clothing, technology, appliance, etc. stocks that make up the dow until those companies guide down their earnings (however we are already seeing it with companies like intel, last week). Ok so the connection between the BDIY and the banking debt debacle would be that companies hoarding cash (and consumers too, for that matter) are affecting supply and demand. Consumers aren't demanding and companies aren't supplying. So less get shipped... Thanks! And the 3-5 month delay is just the time it takes for supply-demand changes to express themselves in earnings. ...and since 70% of U.S. GDP is comprised of consumer spending, if the consumer's not spending, our economy is contracting which increases unemployment and decreases tax revenues to fund government which further weakens the economy...and on it goes. Last Edited by telling it straight on 09/10/2012 12:00 AM |
| PravdaDemocrat User ID: 19228212 United States09/10/2012 12:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You can see the chart here: [link to www.bloomberg.com] The lowest BDIY (about 600) occurred in December 2008. The lowest DOW (about 7000) occurred in March 2009. Over the past week the BDIY has been headed south, linearly, and closed Friday at 669. If you remember fall 2008, the Mainstream media screamed over and over again that this was "Leading Economic Indicator". But then, that was under a Republican President. Under the MESSIAH OBAMA, it is an IGNORED Economic Indicator. |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/10/2012 12:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | long story short, you can view transportation as a leading indicator as shipping activity will preceed a wholesaler or consumer buying at the retail level. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 5944433 given that the bdi is low, it appears companies are not shipping as much product, which means they aren't expecting high levels of sales this holiday season. this depressed sales activity won't be priced into the clothing, technology, appliance, etc. stocks that make up the dow until those companies guide down their earnings (however we are already seeing it with companies like intel, last week). Ok so the connection between the BDIY and the banking debt debacle would be that companies hoarding cash (and consumers too, for that matter) are affecting supply and demand. Consumers aren't demanding and companies aren't supplying. So less get shipped... Thanks! And the 3-5 month delay is just the time it takes for supply-demand changes to express themselves in earnings. ...and since 70% of U.S. GDP is comprised of consumer spending, if the consumer's not spending, our economy is contracting which increases unemployment and decreases tax revenues to fund government which further weakens the economy...and on it goes. So there's this schizophrenic thing I've noticed: On the one hand, financial and MSM commentators wring their hands about the low savings rate of Americans. On the other hand, American consumer spending seems to be (as you pointed out) the engine of the world. On the third hand, the bankster contingent seems to want us to be as deeply in debt as possible because that's how THEY make money. Seems our leaders could make a contribution to the economy by being honest and straightforward with us about WTF we're supposed to do! |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/10/2012 12:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You can see the chart here: [link to www.bloomberg.com] The lowest BDIY (about 600) occurred in December 2008. The lowest DOW (about 7000) occurred in March 2009. Over the past week the BDIY has been headed south, linearly, and closed Friday at 669. If you remember fall 2008, the Mainstream media screamed over and over again that this was "Leading Economic Indicator". But then, that was under a Republican President. Under the MESSIAH OBAMA, it is an IGNORED Economic Indicator. Really? I guess I wasn't paying that much attention in 2008. I already knew from Paulsen's testimony to Congress that it would be good to get money out of the stock market, and I begged and pleaded with the Merrill Lynch crooks who controlled my father's accounts (he had dementia by this point) to reallocate, but of course they didn't. I did it with my own 401k though, and glad I did. As for Obama, it's clear he knows and cares little for economics. He's a community organizer for f's sake! |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 23108778 United States09/10/2012 01:04 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| hcc (OP) Deplorable CatRWall User ID: 6493463 United States09/10/2012 01:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| PravdaDemocrat User ID: 19228212 United States09/10/2012 01:13 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The BDI tends to have a sharp upward swing around this time of the year I assume due to the holiday season which I expect to see soon. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23108778 The Christmas holidays shipping season began in August. If goods aren't shipping by the end of September, they won't be shipping for Christmas, AT ALL... |
