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30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING

 
fedspeak
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09/14/2012 05:22 AM
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30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
In what seems to be playing out as well may be the final chapter in this surreal Quanatative Easing strategy by the FOMC; the US 30 Year Bond is becoming engulfed in what seems to be a massive selloff which may throw a wrench into the cogs that turn the wheel of the US Governemtn money printing..

[link to finviz.com]


The worlds largest Bond Fund run by PIMCO s Bill Gross...

[link to www.businessweek.com]

...sold a major stake in US Reasuries last month. The effect has been a surge in 30 Year Interest Rate effective yield..

[link to stockcharts.com]


The RISK ON trade now has monies flowing into equities and out of the US Bond Market as well as the U.S. Dollar as we mentioned last week..

Thread: US DOLLAR COLLAPSE IN PROGRESS...

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE???





Last Edited by fedspeak on 09/14/2012 07:23 AM
fedspeak (OP)

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09/14/2012 06:03 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
New session low on 30 Year
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 06:25 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
I'm not surprised why anyone would settle for less than 7% return is beyond me.
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 06:32 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
The Dollar loses today again against the Euro.
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 07:02 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Interest rates will never rise as long as there is a dollar. They will print to infinity to keep rates down.
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 07:09 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Which Bond? James? Isn't he older?
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 07:10 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Interest rates will never rise as long as there is a dollar. They will print to infinity to keep rates down.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22688746


If they rise people will be jumping out of their cars onto the freeway.
fedspeak (OP)

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09/14/2012 07:24 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
30 Year has just fallen below 146 on the chart...DOOMSDAY??
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 07:27 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
30 Year has just fallen below 146 on the chart...DOOMSDAY??
 Quoting: fedspeak


America is going to default... Within a few months, Moody`s will downgrade the AAA in 2013 1ST quarter, thanks to Bernanke and Obama , vote for Obama again so that your currency will be a toilet paper.
eddy

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09/14/2012 07:41 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Good thread OP, 5+
fedspeak (OP)

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09/14/2012 08:25 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
145 21 on Dec Contract..
MuayThai

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09/14/2012 08:38 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
The Dollar loses today again against the Euro.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23729302


Just think about it, a few weeks ago the euro was scraping the 1.22 level and now it's over 1.29, what a load. The only people who are benefiting are the traders who have the inside scoop on these markets. Everyone else is being played for fools.

I gotta love these financial channel talking heads who are trying to sell this QE3 BS. Their money will become just as worthless as mine and they are happy about it. Morons
fedspeak (OP)

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09/14/2012 09:44 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Blast off for equities
fedspeak (OP)

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09/14/2012 09:52 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
145 18 new session low...HOLY TOLEDO
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 10:04 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
New session low on 30 Year
 Quoting: fedspeak


99.5 % people over glp don't even know what bond means....
BTW they are exchanging those long term bonds for short term ones
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 10:06 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
145 18 new session low...HOLY TOLEDO
 Quoting: fedspeak


shares,stocks,bonds,mutual funds etc etc are just ways to earn govt money...
the market is disfunctional from 1975 onwards...US still not recovered from oil shock
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 10:16 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Sell high

buy low

been going on for centuries
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 11:09 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Mussie stampede got nothing against these news....
smoke and mirrors.

I would look at DoD contractors ....emerging. ones....I bet insiders shifting investments in this field.
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 11:26 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
New session low on 30 Year
 Quoting: fedspeak


99.5 % people over glp don't even know what bond means....
BTW they are exchanging those long term bonds for short term ones
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23451547


No, operation twist sells short term bonds and buys longer term tresuries. So the rate should be coming down on the 10 and 30 year.
Therion156
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09/14/2012 11:58 AM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Read the Feds Press statement at the St. Louis Fed site.... it explicitly states that the Fed is going to "REINVEST THE PRINCIPLE OF AGENCY DEBT" into MBS at a rate of $40 bb per month.... IOW the Fed is not printing money that would support the bond market, they announced they are merely moving one class of assets (long bonds) into another class of assets (MBS) as an official policy.... Therefore the Fed has announced it is terminating FULL support (but not all supports) for the long bond by moving into MBS... Go to St. Louis Fed and look at "All Liquidity Swaps chart," what you will observe is that the Fed has been purchasing UST's and swapping them for MBS since the beginning of 2012.... Yesterday the Fed merely made public their covert ongoing policy of MBS Swaps and said they would continue that policy.... Why MBS? The banks are insolvent by holding worthless & devalued MBS that cannot be employed as collateral..... so the Fed began an operation of buying up UST's then covertly swapping low risk highly acceptable collateral for high risk nonacceptable collateral to prevent the banks from declaring insolvency.... a bank cannot operate with nonacceptable worthless collateral, but the Fed can! Thus an insolvent bank holding $250 bb face value MBS that is actually worth $100 bb can swap the devalued $250 bb MBS with the Fed for $250 bb UST's .... now the bank returns to market solvency with low risk collateral by shifting the unacceptable MBS to the Fed. The Feds books only record the swap in notional value.... the relaxing of "mark to market" accounting rules did not prevent the "real market" from discounting or not accepting the questionable collateral....
Therion156
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09/14/2012 12:16 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Operation Twist was the covert conduit under the disguise of "interest rate policy" to purchase low risk highly valuable UST's to be swapped for high risk low value MBS.... The entire operation is designed to convert insolvent banks back to solvency.... global markets operate on "letters of credit, etc." backed by low risk highly valuable and acceptable collateral to conduct commercial transactions & trade presently & into the future... a bank stuffed with questionable collateral is avoided like the plague.... a $500 million oil transaction cannot take place if payment in value is questionable. Just because a bank publicly declares a fantasy value on their assets doesnt mean the market participants (buyers & sellers) will accept the banks bogus valuation..... after 2008 most banks were\are insolvent and would be declaredx insolvent if the accounting rules were not changed & altered.... the accounting rule change however did not alter the insolvency in the real world....
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 12:24 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
“The fallacy of monetary policy in the U.S. is to believe this money will go to the man on the street. It won't. It goes to the Mayfair economy of the well-to-do people and boosts asset prices of Warhols…Very happy. Very good for the Fed. Congratulations, Mr. Bernanke. I’m happy. My asset values go up but as a responsible citizen I have to say the monetary policies of the U.S. will destroy the world.”

Faber on more Federal Reserve stimulus:

“It is difficult to tell what will happen. I happen to believe that eventually we will have a systemic crisis and everything will collapse. But the question is really between here and then. Will everything collapse with Dow Jones 20,000 or 50,000 or 10 million? Mr. Bernanke is a money printer and, believe me, if Mr. Romney wins the election the next Fed chairman will also be a money printer. And so it will go on. The Europeans will print money. The Chinese will print money. Everybody will print money and the purchasing power of paper money will go down. And I don't like bonds. I don't particularly like equities, but I think equities are a better space to be in than bonds.”

On what he will do with his portfolio in reaction to yesterday’s move:

“I own corporate bonds and I recently, as I wrote, I pulled some bonds from Kazakhstan because Kazakhstan economically is a much sounder country than the United States or any European country. But it is in small doses. I wouldn't put all of my money in corporate bonds.
Saddletramp
We Don't Rent Pigs...

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09/14/2012 12:27 PM

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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
You know it's a helluva day in the news when this story is back page...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."
Saddletramp
We Don't Rent Pigs...

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09/14/2012 12:28 PM

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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
The derivative markets will be under a lot of pressure very soon...

Not sure 40 billion a month is going to keep our banks afloat through this...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."
Saddletramp
We Don't Rent Pigs...

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09/14/2012 12:32 PM

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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Moody's threat to downgrade the U.S. debt is looking more and more like it's going to be a reality...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 01:18 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Sell high

buy low

been going on for centuries
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23487446


Nah - use the Bernanke Method:

Buy High
Sell Low
Make Up The Difference In Volume...
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 02:18 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
30 Year has just fallen below 146 on the chart...DOOMSDAY??
 Quoting: fedspeak


America is going to default... Within a few months, Moody`s will downgrade the AAA in 2013 1ST quarter, thanks to Bernanke and Obama , vote for Obama again so that your currency will be a toilet paper.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12516691



It's been toilet paper since 1933.
Therion156
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09/14/2012 02:36 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Sorry folks... there will be NO massive sell off in bonds... at least not yet... the banks that are using these bonds as collateral can sustain major losses compared to the losses they received on their MBS as collateral.... As of NOW, the UST is the best horse in the glue factory....
Therion156
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09/14/2012 02:51 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Derivatives which are mostly outstanding "INTEREST RATE SWAPS" are, for now under control.... WHY do you think the FED continues to announce after EVERY FOMC meeting that THEY will direct & CONTINUE the ZIRP & NIRP policies until at least 2015..... this operates as a direct warning against specs or anyone else that attempts to short or circumvent the Feds plans to provide stability in the derivatives markets! You might beat the Fed at this game and you might beat the USTreasury, but you wont beat them both when they are teamed up & co-ordinated to resist any attack on the derivatives market! The only thing that could possiblyl implode the derivatives market would be an unforseen exogenis event, a VERY RARENATURAL black swan that just appears out of nowhere....
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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09/14/2012 03:10 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Another new lo
Anonymous Coward
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09/14/2012 03:20 PM
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Re: 30 YEAR BOND COLLAPSING - INTEREST RATES SKYROCKETING
Derivatives which are mostly outstanding "INTEREST RATE SWAPS" are, for now under control.... WHY do you think the FED continues to announce after EVERY FOMC meeting that THEY will direct & CONTINUE the ZIRP & NIRP policies until at least 2015..... this operates as a direct warning against specs or anyone else that attempts to short or circumvent the Feds plans to provide stability in the derivatives markets! You might beat the Fed at this game and you might beat the USTreasury, but you wont beat them both when they are teamed up & co-ordinated to resist any attack on the derivatives market! The only thing that could possiblyl implode the derivatives market would be an unforseen exogenis event, a VERY RARENATURAL black swan that just appears out of nowhere....
 Quoting: Therion156 1461665


Yup!

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