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# 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1259909
United States
09/21/2012 04:36 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
WHERE HAS the Dr. (???) NIUT gone ?

Oh, yes; he's busy with his 'lover boy' !
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
United States
09/21/2012 05:04 PM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
DON'T give us 'Arc seconds' and other BS, simpleton !

GIVE US MILES, " closest approach' , ETC !

P.S./ Sounds like your EGO is in the minus range, AGAIN !
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1259909

If you don't understand what an arcsecond is, then I'm not the simpleton in this equation. That IS the "plus and minus limitations of the readings." Your inability to understand the answer is not my problem. I also gave you the closest and farthest distances of the uncertainty region in terms of kilometers in the video itself. Apparently you didn't watch it.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 12319146
Belgium
09/21/2012 05:32 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
DON'T give us 'Arc seconds' and other BS, simpleton !

GIVE US MILES, " closest approach' , ETC !

P.S./ Sounds like your EGO is in the minus range, AGAIN !
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1259909

If you don't understand what an arcsecond is, then I'm not the simpleton in this equation. That IS the "plus and minus limitations of the readings." Your inability to understand the answer is not my problem. I also gave you the closest and farthest distances of the uncertainty region in terms of kilometers in the video itself. Apparently you didn't watch it.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Risks
The asteroid will not impact the Earth on February 15, 2013.
As of May 12, 2012, the odds of impact on 2020-Feb-16 are essentially zero.

There is an estimated cumulative 0.033% risk (1 in 3,030) of 2012 DA14 impacting Earth sometime between 2026 and 2069.

It is rated a low &#8722;3.19 on the Palermo Scale.[5] (The risk is less than one thousandth of the estimated risk of another similarly sized near earth asteroid hitting the Earth during that time period.[6] It is estimated that there are more than a million near-Earth asteroids smaller than 100 meters.)

It rates 0 (No Hazard) on the Torino scale.

If it were to strike the Earth, it is estimated that it would produce the equivalent of 2.4 megatons of TNT. The Tunguska event has been estimated at 3&#8722;20 megatons.

Sword of mercy

User ID: 24194709
United Kingdom
09/21/2012 05:52 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Have you taken into account any keyholes ? Js
Quoting: Sword of mercy

The gravity of all the planets are accounted for in this video. A "keyhole" is just a region of space through which a given asteroid must pass in order for a planet's gravity to perturb it in such a way as to produce a collision later on (as it depends on the orbit of the asteroid it's not a fixed region of space either, but varies from asteroid to asteroid). What I'm doing here is analyzing the region of uncertainty of the asteroid's future position, accounting for the gravity of the planets, and seeing if that region intersects earth at all. If it did intersect earth at a point in the future, that would mean some of the potential future positions of the asteroid had indeed passed through a "keyhole" earlier in their orbit.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Why thankyou so much for that reply.
"Traveling through hyperspace ain't like dusting crops, boy! "
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24103158
New Zealand
09/21/2012 05:55 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Everyone on here knows you are a paid nasa shill.

Why do you even try?
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 21217730
United States
09/21/2012 06:03 PM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Everyone on here knows you are a paid nasa shill.

Why do you even try?

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24103158

You don't speak for everyone and you have your cart before your horse. I'm not a shill. Why do you try to slander me?
richbarry
User ID: 969823
United States
09/21/2012 06:13 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Excellent work with distracting the eaters from the real asteroid that may hit, by debunking the same irrelevant objects over and again. Can you please tell them how the moon landing is real and mars has no water because any scientist like you can clearly see swamp gas causing lens flares? lol you and doorbert must be paid well to shill so often. What degree do you hold? where do you get your funding for research? why do you think you are correct always and never mistaken, yet others who show proof of gravity distortions due to planet x you say they are less informed than you are. are you nasa or vatican?
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 21217730
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09/21/2012 06:24 PM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Excellent work with distracting the eaters from the real asteroid that may hit, by debunking the same irrelevant objects over and again. Can you please tell them how the moon landing is real and mars has no water because any scientist like you can clearly see swamp gas causing lens flares? lol you and doorbert must be paid well to shill so often. What degree do you hold? where do you get your funding for research? why do you think you are correct always and never mistaken, yet others who show proof of gravity distortions due to planet x you say they are less informed than you are. are you nasa or vatican?
Quoting: richbarry 969823

Thread: Jupiter's orbit is still NOT "off"
I'm not a shill and I know I'm right. I may just be an amateur astronomer, but like most serious amateur astronomers, I know what the fuck I'm doing. If you think I'm wrong then by all means, show me where I'm wrong.

Incidentally, when an asteroid actually does have even a somewhat decent chance of hitting us, I do talk about it.
Thread: Here's what a real cosmic threat looks like
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23885826
United Kingdom
09/21/2012 06:37 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Astro, I just seen something huge burn up over central Scotland 15mins ago. Most awesome sight I have ever seen!Was there any meteor showers forecast for today? It was burning a bright orange, 3 large objects surrounded by a swarm of smaller projectiles. Direction was east to west. I could not work out how far south it was from me but it was over Stirling(which is 9 miles west from my town)in about 15-20 sec. My little brother spotted it and freaked out. Tried to get my cam but was too late. Still shaking here as it was that huge. Was actually waiting on an explosion/bang. I honestly feel blessed after seeing it. WOW!!
Anonymous Coward
09/21/2012 06:37 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
09/21/2012 06:45 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Astro, I just seen something huge burn up over central Scotland 15mins ago. Most awesome sight I have ever seen!Was there any meteor showers forecast for today? It was burning a bright orange, 3 large objects surrounded by a swarm of smaller projectiles. Direction was east to west. I could not work out how far south it was from me but it was over Stirling(which is 9 miles west from my town)in about 15-20 sec. My little brother spotted it and freaked out. Tried to get my cam but was too late. Still shaking here as it was that huge. Was actually waiting on an explosion/bang. I honestly feel blessed after seeing it. WOW!!
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23885826

Awesome!

I fully believe you as in the last Year alone I have seen more Fireball Meteors than I have 'Shooting Stars' - The first one of the Year looked much like the one you describe,Orange and Green 'Flames' and as it came lower broke apart into a hail of smaller Red balls of Fire - I expected it to land on the Flats it appeared to be just above before disappering into nothing but a small line of actual smoke!

I have seen around 5/6 since then,the last whilst I was in Cornwall which was a pure deep Orange colour and also very,very low around the South-Eastern Horizon.

That was Three Weeks back.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 09/21/2012 06:48 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23734544
United States
09/21/2012 06:51 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Screw the people who rated ya down. You're pinned for a reason...
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24158399

pins mean nothing here. you know how many bullshit threads are pinned every day?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23885826
United Kingdom
09/21/2012 06:52 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Astro, I just seen something huge burn up over central Scotland 15mins ago. Most awesome sight I have ever seen!Was there any meteor showers forecast for today? It was burning a bright orange, 3 large objects surrounded by a swarm of smaller projectiles. Direction was east to west. I could not work out how far south it was from me but it was over Stirling(which is 9 miles west from my town)in about 15-20 sec. My little brother spotted it and freaked out. Tried to get my cam but was too late. Still shaking here as it was that huge. Was actually waiting on an explosion/bang. I honestly feel blessed after seeing it. WOW!!
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23885826

Awesome!

I fully believe you as in the last Year alone I have seen more Fireball Meteors than I have 'Shooting Stars' - The first one of the Year looked much like the one you describe,Orange and Green 'Flames' and as it came lower broke apart into a hail of smaller Red balls of Fire - I expected it to land on the Flats it appeared to be just above before disappering into nothing but a small line of actual smoke!

I have seen around 5/6 since then,the last whilst I was in Cornwall which was a pure deep Orange colour and also very,very low around the South-Eastern Horizon.

That was Three Weeks back.
Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

Here bro... Thread: Fireball Over UK & Ireland (Page 2) So glad there has been plenty of sightings along with photo's
outofspace
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User ID: 1290412
09/22/2012 05:29 AM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Astro do you think that Earth have too much luck? Statistically we should be hit by larger asteroid already. I'm not talking about ELE but some bigger one than current rocks from space.
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 8854307
United States
09/23/2012 03:41 PM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Excellent work with distracting the eaters from the real asteroid that may hit, by debunking the same irrelevant objects over and again. Can you please tell them how the moon landing is real and mars has no water because any scientist like you can clearly see swamp gas causing lens flares? lol you and doorbert must be paid well to shill so often. What degree do you hold? where do you get your funding for research? why do you think you are correct always and never mistaken, yet others who show proof of gravity distortions due to planet x you say they are less informed than you are. are you nasa or vatican?
Quoting: richbarry 969823

Thread: Jupiter's orbit is still NOT "off"
I'm not a shill and I know I'm right. I may just be an amateur astronomer, but like most serious amateur astronomers, I know what the fuck I'm doing. If you think I'm wrong then by all means, show me where I'm wrong.

Incidentally, when an asteroid actually does have even a somewhat decent chance of hitting us, I do talk about it.
Thread: Here's what a real cosmic threat looks like
Quoting: Dr. Astro

Still no reply. Here's what distraction looks like pal:
Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 8854307
United States
09/23/2012 03:42 PM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Astro do you think that Earth have too much luck? Statistically we should be hit by larger asteroid already. I'm not talking about ELE but some bigger one than current rocks from space.
Quoting: outofspace

Tunguska wasn't all that long ago in human terms.
<+MarketSellOff+>
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
United States
09/24/2012 03:36 AM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Everyone on here knows you are a paid nasa shill.

Why do you even try?

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24103158

Dr. Astro (OP)
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User ID: 4211721
United States
09/24/2012 09:53 AM

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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Astro,

have you looked into any satellites in its path?
Quoting: SE

Took a cursory look last night, the Clarke belt with geostationary satellites does cross through a rather dense part of the uncertainty region (even if not the "nominal" orbit of the asteroid).

Now, the uncertainty region is still far wider the Clarke belt and most of the density is outside the belt, so not only is an impact with a satellite unlikely, but the odds are still against the asteroid even crossing directly through the Clarke belt. All that said, it is quite interesting to see.

I'll give a more detailed look and pick out the satellites that are at greatest risk later today. My initial analysis only had a time resolution of 15 minutes, which isn't enough to really see which specific satellites are at highest risk. This time I'll analyze it with a time resolution of 1 second.

Last Edited by The Gentle Astromut on 09/24/2012 09:54 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1834146
United States
11/23/2012 01:43 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
i hope it hits earth.
Future Viewer

User ID: 1344660
United States
11/23/2012 01:45 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
i hope it hits earth.

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1834146

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^​

Besides its time the Sheeple, get a little roughed up nowadays, they have it too easy..
The Real "Kronos"..(1957 Movie)
my2centsworth

User ID: 342233
11/23/2012 01:58 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
thanks for sharing this info with us Astro!
It much appreciated.

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 22826717
United States
11/23/2012 02:11 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
i hope it hits earth.

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1834146

Aren't you just a hateful little man?
Hunter 0f Truth
User ID: 28309497
United States
11/23/2012 02:28 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
It makes a difference if the orbit is measured from the edge of our atmosphere or the center on the earth position.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24516408
11/23/2012 02:36 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)

Sooner or later something's gonna hit with devastating effects.

Be warned. Just saying.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 22826717
United States
11/23/2012 02:42 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)

Sooner or later something's gonna hit with devastating effects.

Be warned. Just saying.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24516408

SE

User ID: 1673157
11/23/2012 02:46 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19727076
11/23/2012 02:50 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
DON'T give us 'Arc seconds' and other BS, simpleton !

GIVE US MILES, " closest approach' , ETC !

P.S./ Sounds like your EGO is in the minus range, AGAIN !
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1259909

First he says plus or minus 30-40000 then again he says 50-60000. Read the posts. So could it then based on that your swing sling all over the place shot at measurement be 10-20000. Any close approach could play with the planet as do some of the other asteroids that have a high percentage and a proven track record of creating Earthqukes when they pass.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19727076
11/23/2012 02:55 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
DON'T give us 'Arc seconds' and other BS, simpleton !

GIVE US MILES, " closest approach' , ETC !

P.S./ Sounds like your EGO is in the minus range, AGAIN !
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1259909

First he says plus or minus 30-40000 then again he says 50-60000. Read the posts. So could it then based on that your swing sling all over the place shot at measurement be 10-20000. Any close approach could play with the planet as do some of the other asteroids that have a high percentage and a proven track record of creating Earthqukes when they pass.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19727076

I wanted to add that an asteroid/meteor passed into our atmosphere and then skipped right back out the other day. Astronomers said BEFORE THIS HAPPENED that it could'nt happen. First time in our history one came in and then left again. When they say things are impossible I just don't believe them anymore. There seems to be alot of first time that ever happened happenings lately.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19727076
11/23/2012 02:58 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
DON'T give us 'Arc seconds' and other BS, simpleton !

GIVE US MILES, " closest approach' , ETC !

P.S./ Sounds like your EGO is in the minus range, AGAIN !
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1259909

First he says plus or minus 30-40000 then again he says 50-60000. Read the posts. So could it then based on that your swing sling all over the place shot at measurement be 10-20000. Any close approach could play with the planet as do some of the other asteroids that have a high percentage and a proven track record of creating Earthqukes when they pass.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19727076

I wanted to add that an asteroid/meteor passed into our atmosphere and then skipped right back out the other day. Astronomers said BEFORE THIS HAPPENED that it could'nt happen. First time in our history one came in and then left again. When they say things are impossible I just don't believe them anymore. There seems to be alot of first time that ever happened happenings lately.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 19727076

The other first this year was the Comet that survived entering into the suns atmosphere only to reappear having survived and carried on its merry way again. Peices in tow.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 19727076
11/23/2012 03:04 PM
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Re: 2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)
Astro,

have you looked into any satellites in its path?
Quoting: SE

Took a cursory look last night, the Clarke belt with geostationary satellites does cross through a rather dense part of the uncertainty region (even if not the "nominal" orbit of the asteroid).

Now, the uncertainty region is still far wider the Clarke belt and most of the density is outside the belt, so not only is an impact with a satellite unlikely, but the odds are still against the asteroid even crossing directly through the Clarke belt. All that said, it is quite interesting to see.

I'll give a more detailed look and pick out the satellites that are at greatest risk later today. My initial analysis only had a time resolution of 15 minutes, which isn't enough to really see which specific satellites are at highest risk. This time I'll analyze it with a time resolution of 1 second.
Quoting: Dr. Astro

An analysis of 15 minutes. A resolution of 1 second. Why doesn't that seem like a lot of time to figure out the path of an asteriod. Thats kind of like how they described the radiation for Fuku. Said within certain scientific language it all seems pretty normal but if they ever decided to speak english then we would understand and know exactly what they are talking about and would know they are full of shit most of the time and in Danger.