2012 DA14 Orbit Update (It Will Still Not Hit Earth in February)

Screw the people who rated ya down. You're pinned for a reason...

Astro,

have you looked into any satellites in its path?

I could do that, though at the moment the odds of it actually hitting the clarke belt exactly are quite slim (let alone hitting a satellite within the clarke belt). The most likely close approach distance ranges anywhere from 30,000 km - 38,000 km by my calculations. I'll take a look at which satellites are "most at risk" next week. Good suggestion, thanks!

Astro,

Are your plots in the video based on Earth surface (equatorial) or Earth Center measurements?

If Earth center did you account for Earth radius from the center point?

30,000 - 38,000 should have quite a few GEO satellites.

Would impact wth any of these perturb the future orbits and passes? Or move debris into a more dangerous position for collision with other bodies making passes?

its a good thing it wont hit us. we have enough shit on the table right now with geopolitical crap.

That should be center point distance, so it's ~24,000-32,000 km in terms of surface altitude. There is a slim chance it could be as far as about 60,000km center point distance or about 54,000 km altitude though so it's not impossible.

Geostationary satellites tend to hold hold tight orbits with perigees and apogees that only vary from the Clarke distance by a few hundred kilometers at most, so it would have to pass at that very specific distance to have any kind of decent shot at taking out a satellite. If it did take out a satellite it really wouldn't be the perturbation of the asteroid itself we should worry about, it's the debris from the satellite itself that might cause a problem for other geostationary satellites from the bits of the destroyed satellite whose orbits after impact still intersect the geostationary orbit at some point.

The semi-major axis and inclination of the debris would no doubt be drastically altered, but some of it would probably still have a perigee distance approximately at the Clarke distance. That means when the debris intersects the Clarke belt again, it would not do so at the same point where the satellite had been orbiting, so it might collide with an operational satellite and cause additional damage.

All of that is extremely unlikely as the asteroid would have to pass at a very specific distance and even then still get lucky, but I'll take a look later. I can import space-track's TLE database of satellites into ORSA and run that alongside the uncertainty plot and see if any satellites are near the region of uncertainty.

Last Edited by Astromut on 09/21/2012 10:30 AM

Thanks for your work!

Have you taken into account any keyholes ? Js

The gravity of all the planets are accounted for in this video. A "keyhole" is just a region of space through which a given asteroid must pass in order for a planet's gravity to perturb it in such a way as to produce a collision later on (as it depends on the orbit of the asteroid it's not a fixed region of space either, but varies from asteroid to asteroid). What I'm doing here is analyzing the region of uncertainty of the asteroid's future position, accounting for the gravity of the planets, and seeing if that region intersects earth at all. If it did intersect earth at a point in the future, that would mean some of the potential future positions of the asteroid had indeed passed through a "keyhole" earlier in their orbit.

Last Edited by Astromut on 09/21/2012 10:58 AM

Is this

Oops, pressed wrong button. Is this asteroid passing on sun side of earth or the other side? If passing on sun side, could a large CME from sun push the orbit closer to earth?

Doom?

thanks astro

:robonautweight:


:gravitysucks:

So MUCH BS !

JUST WHAT are the PLUS and MINUS LIMITATIONS of the the readings you base your 'conclusions'/plots (sic) on, Einstein ?

finally an asteroid, I'm sick of iran, economy and religious threads.
good job astromut.

Night side. A CME wouldn't have a detectable effect on the orbit anyway.

The astrometric readings are accurate to within about half an arcsecond, plus or minus. That is precisely why the Monte Carlo calculations vary the astrometric readings by that amount randomly for each solution, producing a plot of the potential orbits of the asteroid which I then displayed with ORSA and integrated over the period of the close approach.

So now who's full of BS?

Sleuthed Astro : )

excellent thread, voted up. Thanks again for your excellent speaking skills and easy to follow videos.

OHHH FUUUCK ME!!.....astroshill says "not to worry"...now im scared...it IS GONNA HIT FUUUUCK!!!!!!!!!!!.....TIME TO BUGOUT...WITH TERRAL!!!

^This

Do you suppose there could be a debris field to pass through? Possible meteor shower?

Laika wants to know if it will hit the moon ?

[link to www.youtube.com]

This is TBar and Astromut on EVERY THREAD!!!!!

Compare the voices...it is actually them I believe

[link to www.youtube.com]

This is them at home...again, compare these voices to their voices on the videos they post. SAME PEOPLE!!!!

It is quite obvious why they know so much about astronomy...they live together and you can tell by the way they support each other on every thread...they are in love

Thank you both for all the info you pass on, and thank you for another in a long line of boring threads

I am happy for the both of you that you have found true love together, and please continue posting boring threads...yawn zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

No, it's an asteroid, not a comet. It's also quite small, thus its gravity is insufficient to hold onto any moons or "debris" at any kind of distance.

Oh look, a butthurt elenintard.
:thassabutthurt:
Thread: Okay "Debunkards & Skeptictards", Elenin Wimpy?
No wonder you think I'm gay, you're projecting your personal insecurities about your sexuality since you got your ass hurt during the Elenin nonsense. It all makes sense now.

Last Edited by Astromut on 09/21/2012 04:22 PM

more fucking doom shit that ain't gonna happen get a life

DON'T give us 'Arc seconds' and other BS, simpleton !

GIVE US MILES, " closest approach' , ETC !

P.S./ Sounds like your EGO is in the minus range, AGAIN !